长期贫困度量问题研究
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摘要
在当代世界发展中,贫困问题始终是困扰人类社会进步的一个重大问题。从上世纪60年代美国率先“向贫困宣战”以来,世界大多数国家和国际组织都不遗余力地推进世界反贫困进程并取得了巨大成就。然而,一直以来,国内外学者都缺乏对那些长期处于贫困状态的特殊群体——长期贫困者——给予应有的关注和研究,而且事实证明这个群体并不能很好地获益于现行的扶贫政策和经济增长。因此,对这一群体进行专门的研究并指导针对性的扶贫政策的制定和实施,这对于提高我们的扶贫政策的效率来说无疑具有积极意义。
贫困的度量问题是贫困研究中的基础问题,因此,对于长期贫困问题的研究也将无法避免对其进行这一基础性问题的研究,同时它也是无法背离贫困的一些基本概念和基本思想的。鉴于此,本文首先对度量静态贫困的一般理论和方法进行了分析和研究。在基本概念方面,从贫困概念的演进以及贫困类型的划分来把握贫困的内涵和外延;在度量方法上,先对贫困的“识别”标准和方法进行了研究,随后对贫困的“加总”指标及其构建思想、评价标准体系进行了分析和研究。沿着这些思路和方法,对长期贫困的“识别”以及常用的度量指标的进行了讨论,指出了在长期贫困度量中忽略一些消费变动轨迹的信息是不合适的。在个人动态贫困度量中对这些问题进行了讨论,将贫困发生的时间及发生顺序的信息引入到长期贫困度量中。更为重要的是,将贫困度量的步骤细化为三步即识别、转换和加总,并对变换它们的顺序所形成的一系列指标形式进行了分析和讨论,为长期贫困的度量提供了一个分析框架。此外,本文还从长期贫困的度量空间、识别标准以及贫困的外延三个方面对长期贫困度量研究的扩展思路进行了讨论。
In the economic development of the present world, poverty remains a grave problem which disturbs social development. Since America declaring war to poverty in 1960s’, many countries and international organizations have advanced the world anti-poverty movement sparing no effort, and have got great success. However, researches home and abroad, all the time, pay little attention to the special group which are poor chronically. The truth proved that this group couldn’t profit well form actual policy of aid-the-poor and economic development. So studying on this group and instructing the draft and application of pertinent policy is significant to improve the policy efficiency of aid-the-poor.
The poverty measurement is of basic issue in poverty research. So for the research on chronic poverty it is necessary to study on its measurement, and it can’t betray to the basic concept and idea of poverty. General theory and method of static poverty measurement is studied and analyzed. In the basic concept, the intension and extension of poverty is grasped from the evolvement of poverty conception and division of poverty type. In the measurement method, poverty identify standard and technique are studied, then the aggregation of poverty and its construction idea and evaluating system are analyzed. Along with those analysis ways and ideas, the chronic poverty identification and common measurement indexes are discussed, and point out that it is unsuitable to ignore some information of consume variety trace. Those questions are analyzed in the individual dynamic measurement index of poverty; the happening time and sequence of poverty are imported to chronic poverty measurement. More important, the measurement is completed by identification, conversion and aggregation three steps, and shifting their sequence forms a series of indexes which are analyzed and batted around. Then an analysis frame for chronic poverty measurement is provided. And at the end of this paper, the deploitation of chronic poverty measurement is discussed from measurement space and identification standard of chronic poverty and extension of poverty.
贫困的度量问题是贫困研究中的基础问题,因此,对于长期贫困问题的研究也将无法避免对其进行这一基础性问题的研究,同时它也是无法背离贫困的一些基本概念和基本思想的。鉴于此,本文首先对度量静态贫困的一般理论和方法进行了分析和研究。在基本概念方面,从贫困概念的演进以及贫困类型的划分来把握贫困的内涵和外延;在度量方法上,先对贫困的“识别”标准和方法进行了研究,随后对贫困的“加总”指标及其构建思想、评价标准体系进行了分析和研究。沿着这些思路和方法,对长期贫困的“识别”以及常用的度量指标的进行了讨论,指出了在长期贫困度量中忽略一些消费变动轨迹的信息是不合适的。在个人动态贫困度量中对这些问题进行了讨论,将贫困发生的时间及发生顺序的信息引入到长期贫困度量中。更为重要的是,将贫困度量的步骤细化为三步即识别、转换和加总,并对变换它们的顺序所形成的一系列指标形式进行了分析和讨论,为长期贫困的度量提供了一个分析框架。此外,本文还从长期贫困的度量空间、识别标准以及贫困的外延三个方面对长期贫困度量研究的扩展思路进行了讨论。
In the economic development of the present world, poverty remains a grave problem which disturbs social development. Since America declaring war to poverty in 1960s’, many countries and international organizations have advanced the world anti-poverty movement sparing no effort, and have got great success. However, researches home and abroad, all the time, pay little attention to the special group which are poor chronically. The truth proved that this group couldn’t profit well form actual policy of aid-the-poor and economic development. So studying on this group and instructing the draft and application of pertinent policy is significant to improve the policy efficiency of aid-the-poor.
The poverty measurement is of basic issue in poverty research. So for the research on chronic poverty it is necessary to study on its measurement, and it can’t betray to the basic concept and idea of poverty. General theory and method of static poverty measurement is studied and analyzed. In the basic concept, the intension and extension of poverty is grasped from the evolvement of poverty conception and division of poverty type. In the measurement method, poverty identify standard and technique are studied, then the aggregation of poverty and its construction idea and evaluating system are analyzed. Along with those analysis ways and ideas, the chronic poverty identification and common measurement indexes are discussed, and point out that it is unsuitable to ignore some information of consume variety trace. Those questions are analyzed in the individual dynamic measurement index of poverty; the happening time and sequence of poverty are imported to chronic poverty measurement. More important, the measurement is completed by identification, conversion and aggregation three steps, and shifting their sequence forms a series of indexes which are analyzed and batted around. Then an analysis frame for chronic poverty measurement is provided. And at the end of this paper, the deploitation of chronic poverty measurement is discussed from measurement space and identification standard of chronic poverty and extension of poverty.
引文
①世界银行,《2007年世界发展指标》,http://econ.worldbank.org/povcalnet.
②国务院扶贫办,《<中国农村扶贫开发纲要(2001-2010年)>中期评估政策报告》,2006. http://www.cpad.gov.cn/data/2006/1120/article_331406.htm.
③摘自于2008年3月14日人民日报社发表的《2007年美国的人权纪录》,http://finance.people.com.cn/GB/6999170.html.
[1] Chronic Poverty Research Centre. The Chronic Poverty Report 2003-2005[J]. 2005:1-142.
[2] Sen, A. Poverty and Famines: An Essay on Entitlement and Deprivation[J]. Oxford University Press. 1981:321-345.
[3] Andy Mckay, Bob Baulch, David Lawson et al. How Many Chronically Poor People are there in the World? Some Preliminary Estimates [J]. CPRC Working Paper No 45,2003:2-13.
[4] Hulme and Shepherd. Conceptualizing Chronic Poverty[J]. World Development. 2003,31(3):403–423.
[5] Townsend, P. Poverty in the Kingdom: A Study of the Household Resource and Living Standard[M].London: Allen Lane and Penguin Books,1979:37-39.
[6] Oppenheim, C. Poverty: the Facts [M]. London: Child Poverty Action Group,1993:82-84.
[7]世界银行.1980年世界发展报告[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,1980:78-80.
[8]雷诺兹.微观经济学[M].北京:商务印书馆,1993:237.
[9]钟鸣等.两极鸿沟?当代中国的贫富阶层[M].北京:中国经济出版社,1999:257.
[10]国家统计局.中国城镇居民贫困问题研究课题组和中国农村贫困标准课题组的研究报告[R].北京:国家统计局,1990.
[11]童星,林闽钢.我国农村贫困标准线研究[J].中国社会科学,1993,(3):86-98.
[12]世界银行.1990年世界发展报告[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,1990:25-27.
[13]阿马蒂亚·森.贫困与饥荒[M].北京:商务印书馆,2001:17-242.
[14]阿马蒂亚·森.以自由看待发展[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2002:46-110.
[15] Atkinson, A.B. The Institution of an Official Poverty Line and Economic Policy, Welfare State Program Paper Series[M].1993,98:46-63.
[16]世界银行.2000/2001世界发展报告:与贫困作斗争[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2001:10-44.
[17]叶普万.贫困经济学研究:一个文献综述[J].世界经济,2005,(9):72.
[18] Townsend, P. The International Analysis of Poverty [M].New York: Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1993:99-132.
[19]莫泰基.香港贫穷与社会保障[M].香港:中华书局,1993:24-30.
[20]康晓光.中国贫困与反贫困理论[M].广西:广西人民出版社,1995:83-90.
[21]吴宝国.对中国扶贫战略的简评[J].中国农村经济,1996,(8):5-8.
[22]尹世洪.当代中国城市贫困问题[M].南昌:江西人民出版社,1998:56-60.
[23]方卫东,糜仲春,程永宏.社会保障制度中贫困线和贫困率的测算[J].上海经济研究,2001,(2):63-66.
[24]唐钧.确定中国城镇贫困线方法的探讨[J].社会学研究,1997,(2):60-71.
[25]解烜.贫困度量问题研究[D].湘潭:湘潭大学,2006:35-36.
[26] Foster, J.E. Greer, J. and Thorbecke, E. A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measure [J]. Econometrica,1984,52:761-766.
[27] McKay, A. and Lawson, D. Assessing the Extent and Nature of Chronic Poverty in Low Income Countries: Issues and Evidence[J]. World Development,2003,31(3), 425–439.
[28] Jalan, J. and Ravallion. Is Transient Poverty Different? Evidence for Rural China[J]. Journal of Development Studies.2000,(6):82-89.
[29] Rolf Aaberge and Magne Mogstad. On the Definition and Measurement of Chronic Poverty[J] .Institute for the Study of Labor Discussion Paper No.2659. 2007:5-20.
[30] Hulme, D, K. Moore and A. Shepherd.Chronic Poverty:Meanings and Analytical Frameworks[J]. CPRC Working Paper 2. 2001:1-34.
[31] Sam Hickey. The Politics of what Works in Reducing Chronic Poverty[J].CPRC Working Paper 91.2007:8-9.
[32] Baulch, B. and E. Masset. Do Monetary and Non-Monetary Indicators Tell the Same Story About Chronic Poverty? A Study of Vietnam in the 1990s[J]. World Development, 2003(31): 441–454.
[33] James E.Foster. A Class of Chronic Poverty Measures[J]. CPRC Working Paper 7.2006:6-53.
[34] Alibe and Michael. An Overview Study of the Incidence and Nature of Chronic Poverty in South Africa[J]. CPRC Working Paper 4. 2001:6-15.
[35] Sen, B. Drivers of Escape and Descent: Changing Household Fortunes in Rural Bangladesh[J]. World Development,2003, 31(3), 513-534.
[36] Kate Bird, Divid Hulme, Karen Moore et al. Chronic Poverty and Remote Rural Areas [J]. CPRC Working Paper 13. 2002:2-25.
[37] Bird, K. and Shepherd, A. Chronic Poverty in Semi Arid Zimbabwe[J]. CPRC Working Paper 18. 2003:2-32.
[38] Goodhand, J. Violent Conflict, Poverty and Chronic Poverty[J]. CPRC Working Paper 6. 2003:6-12.
[39] Kate Bird. The Intergenerational Transmission of Poverty: An overview[J]. CPRC Working Paper 99.2007:1-28.
[40] Jalan, J. and Ravallion, M. Transient Poverty in Rural China[J].World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 1616.1996:2-39.
[41] Jalan, J. and Ravallion, M. Determinants of Transient and Chronic Poverty:Evidence from Rural China[J].World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 1936.1998:2-24.
[42]何晓琦.长期贫困的定义与特征[J].贵州财经学院学报.2004,(6):1-5.
[43]刘跃魁,马建蕾,王志刚.风险管理与长期贫困的形成[J].科技情报开发与经济.2007,17(28):1-2.
[44]何晓琦.微观政策与消除长期贫困[J].经济问题探索.2006,(6):1-6.
[45]乌德亚·瓦格尔.贫困再思考—定义和衡量[J].公开论坛,2003,(1):134-135.
[46]朗特里.贫困与进步:对约克镇的第二次社会调查[M].伦敦:朗曼出版公司,1941:102-103.
[47]阿尔柯克.认识贫困[M].伦敦:麦克米伦出版社,1993:52-76.
[48]郭来喜,姜德华.贫困与环境[J].经济开发论坛,1994,(5):43-112.
[49]蔡昉.转轨中的城市贫困问题[J].社会科学文献出版社,2003:25-53.
[50] Yaqub, S. Chronic Poverty: Scrutinising Patterns, Correlates, and Explorations[J]. CPRC Working Paper 21. 2007:8-10.
②国务院扶贫办,《<中国农村扶贫开发纲要(2001-2010年)>中期评估政策报告》,2006. http://www.cpad.gov.cn/data/2006/1120/article_331406.htm.
③摘自于2008年3月14日人民日报社发表的《2007年美国的人权纪录》,http://finance.people.com.cn/GB/6999170.html.
[1] Chronic Poverty Research Centre. The Chronic Poverty Report 2003-2005[J]. 2005:1-142.
[2] Sen, A. Poverty and Famines: An Essay on Entitlement and Deprivation[J]. Oxford University Press. 1981:321-345.
[3] Andy Mckay, Bob Baulch, David Lawson et al. How Many Chronically Poor People are there in the World? Some Preliminary Estimates [J]. CPRC Working Paper No 45,2003:2-13.
[4] Hulme and Shepherd. Conceptualizing Chronic Poverty[J]. World Development. 2003,31(3):403–423.
[5] Townsend, P. Poverty in the Kingdom: A Study of the Household Resource and Living Standard[M].London: Allen Lane and Penguin Books,1979:37-39.
[6] Oppenheim, C. Poverty: the Facts [M]. London: Child Poverty Action Group,1993:82-84.
[7]世界银行.1980年世界发展报告[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,1980:78-80.
[8]雷诺兹.微观经济学[M].北京:商务印书馆,1993:237.
[9]钟鸣等.两极鸿沟?当代中国的贫富阶层[M].北京:中国经济出版社,1999:257.
[10]国家统计局.中国城镇居民贫困问题研究课题组和中国农村贫困标准课题组的研究报告[R].北京:国家统计局,1990.
[11]童星,林闽钢.我国农村贫困标准线研究[J].中国社会科学,1993,(3):86-98.
[12]世界银行.1990年世界发展报告[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,1990:25-27.
[13]阿马蒂亚·森.贫困与饥荒[M].北京:商务印书馆,2001:17-242.
[14]阿马蒂亚·森.以自由看待发展[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2002:46-110.
[15] Atkinson, A.B. The Institution of an Official Poverty Line and Economic Policy, Welfare State Program Paper Series[M].1993,98:46-63.
[16]世界银行.2000/2001世界发展报告:与贫困作斗争[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2001:10-44.
[17]叶普万.贫困经济学研究:一个文献综述[J].世界经济,2005,(9):72.
[18] Townsend, P. The International Analysis of Poverty [M].New York: Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1993:99-132.
[19]莫泰基.香港贫穷与社会保障[M].香港:中华书局,1993:24-30.
[20]康晓光.中国贫困与反贫困理论[M].广西:广西人民出版社,1995:83-90.
[21]吴宝国.对中国扶贫战略的简评[J].中国农村经济,1996,(8):5-8.
[22]尹世洪.当代中国城市贫困问题[M].南昌:江西人民出版社,1998:56-60.
[23]方卫东,糜仲春,程永宏.社会保障制度中贫困线和贫困率的测算[J].上海经济研究,2001,(2):63-66.
[24]唐钧.确定中国城镇贫困线方法的探讨[J].社会学研究,1997,(2):60-71.
[25]解烜.贫困度量问题研究[D].湘潭:湘潭大学,2006:35-36.
[26] Foster, J.E. Greer, J. and Thorbecke, E. A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measure [J]. Econometrica,1984,52:761-766.
[27] McKay, A. and Lawson, D. Assessing the Extent and Nature of Chronic Poverty in Low Income Countries: Issues and Evidence[J]. World Development,2003,31(3), 425–439.
[28] Jalan, J. and Ravallion. Is Transient Poverty Different? Evidence for Rural China[J]. Journal of Development Studies.2000,(6):82-89.
[29] Rolf Aaberge and Magne Mogstad. On the Definition and Measurement of Chronic Poverty[J] .Institute for the Study of Labor Discussion Paper No.2659. 2007:5-20.
[30] Hulme, D, K. Moore and A. Shepherd.Chronic Poverty:Meanings and Analytical Frameworks[J]. CPRC Working Paper 2. 2001:1-34.
[31] Sam Hickey. The Politics of what Works in Reducing Chronic Poverty[J].CPRC Working Paper 91.2007:8-9.
[32] Baulch, B. and E. Masset. Do Monetary and Non-Monetary Indicators Tell the Same Story About Chronic Poverty? A Study of Vietnam in the 1990s[J]. World Development, 2003(31): 441–454.
[33] James E.Foster. A Class of Chronic Poverty Measures[J]. CPRC Working Paper 7.2006:6-53.
[34] Alibe and Michael. An Overview Study of the Incidence and Nature of Chronic Poverty in South Africa[J]. CPRC Working Paper 4. 2001:6-15.
[35] Sen, B. Drivers of Escape and Descent: Changing Household Fortunes in Rural Bangladesh[J]. World Development,2003, 31(3), 513-534.
[36] Kate Bird, Divid Hulme, Karen Moore et al. Chronic Poverty and Remote Rural Areas [J]. CPRC Working Paper 13. 2002:2-25.
[37] Bird, K. and Shepherd, A. Chronic Poverty in Semi Arid Zimbabwe[J]. CPRC Working Paper 18. 2003:2-32.
[38] Goodhand, J. Violent Conflict, Poverty and Chronic Poverty[J]. CPRC Working Paper 6. 2003:6-12.
[39] Kate Bird. The Intergenerational Transmission of Poverty: An overview[J]. CPRC Working Paper 99.2007:1-28.
[40] Jalan, J. and Ravallion, M. Transient Poverty in Rural China[J].World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 1616.1996:2-39.
[41] Jalan, J. and Ravallion, M. Determinants of Transient and Chronic Poverty:Evidence from Rural China[J].World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 1936.1998:2-24.
[42]何晓琦.长期贫困的定义与特征[J].贵州财经学院学报.2004,(6):1-5.
[43]刘跃魁,马建蕾,王志刚.风险管理与长期贫困的形成[J].科技情报开发与经济.2007,17(28):1-2.
[44]何晓琦.微观政策与消除长期贫困[J].经济问题探索.2006,(6):1-6.
[45]乌德亚·瓦格尔.贫困再思考—定义和衡量[J].公开论坛,2003,(1):134-135.
[46]朗特里.贫困与进步:对约克镇的第二次社会调查[M].伦敦:朗曼出版公司,1941:102-103.
[47]阿尔柯克.认识贫困[M].伦敦:麦克米伦出版社,1993:52-76.
[48]郭来喜,姜德华.贫困与环境[J].经济开发论坛,1994,(5):43-112.
[49]蔡昉.转轨中的城市贫困问题[J].社会科学文献出版社,2003:25-53.
[50] Yaqub, S. Chronic Poverty: Scrutinising Patterns, Correlates, and Explorations[J]. CPRC Working Paper 21. 2007:8-10.
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