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区域水生态与水环境安全机制的研究
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摘要
近年来,随着科技的进步和经济的发展,人类对水资源的需求日益增长,水生态与水环境所面临的安全危机也日益严重。区域水生态与水环境安全系统作为一个综合系统,结构复杂,影响因素多,已经成为国内外研究生态系统和区域环境管理的热点问题,并相继提出了许多定性与定量的评价方法,主要包括区域水生态与水环境安全系统的评价指标体系以及综合评价模型等。
     本文结合国内外对水生态与水环境安全的研究进展,以修正的压力—状态—响应(PSR)概念模型为框架基础,根据水生态与水环境安全的特征,遴选社会、经济及环境等多项指标,结合景观生态学理论,构筑了区域水生态与水环境安全的综合评价指标体系。针对水生态与水环境安全评价系统的层次性与多目标决策的特点,建立区域水生态与水环境安全评价模型,即多层次多目标模糊优选方法与熵权系数相结合的度量模型,最大程度的利用评价指标体系中指标的属性值计算各指标的权系数,客观且定量地对区域水生态与水环境安全机制进行分析。
     以太湖流域江苏地区为研究区域进行水生态与水环境安全机制的实例研究,结果表明:太湖流域江苏地区水生态与水环境安全的现状评估中,三级区的安全综合指数从高到低依次为湖西及湖区、杭嘉湖区及武阳区,四级区水生态与水环境安全状态从优到劣依次为太湖区、武澄锡虞区、湖西区、浦南区及阳澄淀泖区。通过对四级区水生态与水环境安全综合指数和水质指数的相关分析,确定二者之间的负相关关系,同时表明了水生态与水环境安全综合评价结果是合理可信的。最后,在现状评估的基础之上,以2000年为现状基准年,2010年作为规划水平年,分别从常规发展(BAU)和可持续发展模拟(TSD)两种方案预测了四级区水生态与水环境安全的发展态势,结果表明,常规发展模拟方案下,各区水生态与水环境安全发展态势令人担忧,而在可持续发展模拟方案下,各区安全综合指数均呈上升趋势,安全状况明显好转。最后,结合可持续发展的理念,对太湖流域江苏地区的水生态与水环境安全提出相应的保障措施。
In recent years, with the advancement of science and the development of socio-economy, the requirement of water resources is increasing, the crisis of security faced by the water ecology and water environment is serious increasingly. As an integrative system, the structure of regional water ecology and water environment system with many influencing factors, is complicated and becoming the key problem of eco-environment system, including assessment index system and comprehensive evaluation.Based on the conceptual model of pressure-state-response, an assessment index system of regional water ecology and water environment security is set up, including many indicators, such as society economy environment and landscape ecology. On the basis of comprehensive understanding of the concept of water ecology and water environment security, fuzzy optimization model for evaluation regional water ecology and water environment security is established upon multi-objective and multilevel fuzzy optimization theory. In this paper, the entropy method is adopted to confirm the weight of each index, the virtue of which is full use of the value of each index in counting its weight and which makes difference between each index revealed in schemes comparison. With the combination of hierarchical evaluation index system of regional water ecology and water environment security and the model established above, the mechanism of regional water ecology and water environment security is studied.With the practical case of Jiangsu area in Taihu watershed, from two kinds of watershed scale, the regional water ecology and water environment security are evaluated by the multi-objective and multilevel fuzzy optimization model and entropy method. The result indicates that, the third class area in regard to water ecology and water environment security from good to poor in sequence are: Huxi and Taihu area Hangjiahu area and Wuyang area, and the fourth class area in regard to water ecology and water environment security from good to poor in sequence are: Taihu area
    
    Wuchengxiyuqu area Huxi area . Punan area and Yangchengdianmao area. In addition, through the correlation analysis between the security index of the fourth class area and the index of water quality, their negative correlation indicates that the comprehensive evaluation result of regional water ecology and water environment security is reasonable. At last, two scenarios, as the business as usual(BAU) and the towards sustainable development(TSD) scenario, are simulated to predict the development of the water ecology and water environment security in the fourth class area. The simulation suggested that the security situation of TSD is improved obviously. In conclusion, it is necessary to take some measures to ensure the water ecology and water environment security, following the theory of sustainable development.
引文
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