县级供电企业经营风险评估与规避策略研究
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摘要
为满足电力市场发展的需求,县级供电企业正经历着大范围的市场化改革改革前县级供电企业的经营活动在很大程度上受当地政府的支配,而改革后县级供电企将成为国家电网公司控股的一个分公司,直接进入市场,接受规范的管理。这种改革一方面为县级供电企业的发展注入了市场元素,是适应社会发展的重要体现。但与此同时也必须看到,这种改革对县级供电企业的冲击也是不小的。
在当前农村电网各方面条件都比较差的情况下,县级供电企业为了开拓农村电力市场,首先要做的就是进行大范围的农网改造,这部分投资是不小的,这将使得县级供电企也面临着巨大的投资风险。此外,县级供电企业面临的售电环境主要是不成熟的农村电力市场,在农村电力市场上存在着大量的不确定性因素,因此,县级供电企业在经营中将会面临着各种各样的风险因素。在国家电网公司大力推进全面风险管理的要求下,县级供电企业非常有必要开展风险管理。本文首先介绍了县级供电企业经营风险以及评估的一般理论,然后结合县级供电企业的特点对县级供电企业的经营风险管理进行了研究,给出了相应的风险因素,建立了县级供电企业经营风险的评价指标体系,并利用模糊综合层次分析评价法对高密市供电局的经营风险为例进行了实证分析,根据评价结果给出高密市供电局经营风险管理的相关建议,为县级供电企业的风险管理提供借鉴。
In order to meet the development needs of the electricity market, the county power companies are experiencing a wide range of market-oriented reforms. The business activities of the pre-reform country power conmpanies were dominated by the local government, but these will change to be controlled by the National Grid company after reform. They will enter the market directly and receive standard management. Such reforms on the one hand wil bring the county power enterprises enter into the development of market elements, and also are an important manifestation of social development. But it must be noted that these reforms will also brings much more attacks for the county power companies.
At present, the current conditions of the rural power grid are very poor, so the county power enterprises must carry out a wide range of rural power grids in order to develop rural electricity market, which will cost a lot of money. In addition, the electricity sales environment of the county power enterprises primarily is the immature rural electricity market in the rural electricity market, which are also uncertain. Thus the power enterprises operating in the county will be faced with various kinds of risk factors. Guided by the comprehensive risk management requirements of State Grid Corporation, the county power enterprises should take risk management. This paper describes the county power business risk and the general theory on risk evaluation. Combined with the characteristics of county power enterprises operation, the corresponding risk factors are analyzed firstly, the risk evaluation index system is also established. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are used and combined the actual case of Gaomi city, the suggestion on the risk management of countries'electric company is provided, which also provided guidance for the actual operation.
在当前农村电网各方面条件都比较差的情况下,县级供电企业为了开拓农村电力市场,首先要做的就是进行大范围的农网改造,这部分投资是不小的,这将使得县级供电企也面临着巨大的投资风险。此外,县级供电企业面临的售电环境主要是不成熟的农村电力市场,在农村电力市场上存在着大量的不确定性因素,因此,县级供电企业在经营中将会面临着各种各样的风险因素。在国家电网公司大力推进全面风险管理的要求下,县级供电企业非常有必要开展风险管理。本文首先介绍了县级供电企业经营风险以及评估的一般理论,然后结合县级供电企业的特点对县级供电企业的经营风险管理进行了研究,给出了相应的风险因素,建立了县级供电企业经营风险的评价指标体系,并利用模糊综合层次分析评价法对高密市供电局的经营风险为例进行了实证分析,根据评价结果给出高密市供电局经营风险管理的相关建议,为县级供电企业的风险管理提供借鉴。
In order to meet the development needs of the electricity market, the county power companies are experiencing a wide range of market-oriented reforms. The business activities of the pre-reform country power conmpanies were dominated by the local government, but these will change to be controlled by the National Grid company after reform. They will enter the market directly and receive standard management. Such reforms on the one hand wil bring the county power enterprises enter into the development of market elements, and also are an important manifestation of social development. But it must be noted that these reforms will also brings much more attacks for the county power companies.
At present, the current conditions of the rural power grid are very poor, so the county power enterprises must carry out a wide range of rural power grids in order to develop rural electricity market, which will cost a lot of money. In addition, the electricity sales environment of the county power enterprises primarily is the immature rural electricity market in the rural electricity market, which are also uncertain. Thus the power enterprises operating in the county will be faced with various kinds of risk factors. Guided by the comprehensive risk management requirements of State Grid Corporation, the county power enterprises should take risk management. This paper describes the county power business risk and the general theory on risk evaluation. Combined with the characteristics of county power enterprises operation, the corresponding risk factors are analyzed firstly, the risk evaluation index system is also established. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are used and combined the actual case of Gaomi city, the suggestion on the risk management of countries'electric company is provided, which also provided guidance for the actual operation.
引文
[1]中国农电大市场编委会.中国农电大市场[M].北京：中国电力出版社,2002
[2]雷振明.“两改一同价”对县级供电企业的影响与对策[D].北京：华北电力大学,2009
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[7]徐绪松,王频,侯成琪.基于不同风险度量的投资组合模型的实证比较[J].武汉大学学报(理学版),2004，50(3)：311-314
[8]Zuwei Yu. Spatial energy market risk analysis using the semivariance risk measure. International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems,2007,29(8): 600-608
[9]Jun Cai, Ken Seng Tan, Chengguo Weng, Yi Zhang. Optimal reinsurance under VaR and CTE risk measures[J]. Insurance:Mathematics and Economics,2008,43(1): 185-196
[10]Elisa Luciano, Lorenzo Peccati, Donato M. Cifarelli. VaR as a risk measure for multiperiod static inventory models[J]. International Journal of Production Economics,2003, (81-81):375-384
[11]Ying Fan, Yi-Ming Wei, Wei-Xuan Xu. Application of VaR methodology to risk management in the stock market in China[J]. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 2004,46(2):383-388
[12]Xiaojiao Tong, Liqun Qi, Felix Wu Hui Zhou. A smoothing method for solving portfolio optimization with CVaR and applications in allocation of generation asset[J]. Applied Mathematics and Computation,2010,216(6):1723-1740
[13]Jinping Yu, Xiaofeng Yang, Shenghong Li. Portfolio optimization with CVaR under VG process[J]. Research in International Business and Finance,2009,23(1): 107-116
[14]Zhi-qing MENG, Xiao-fen YU, Min JIANG, Hui GAO. Risk Measure and Control Strategy of Investment Portfolio of Real Estate based on Dynamic CVaR Model[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice,2007,27(9):69-76
[15]朱宝全,邹阿荣,马振江.层次分析法在输变电工程项目风险管理中的应用[J].电站系统工程,2010,26(2)：71-72
[16]李芬花,纪昌明,刘元,邢健.基于层次分析法的水利水电工程A.D.HALL系统风险评估方法研究[J].水利水电技术,2010,41(3)：73-76
[17]周真,孙中元,刘芳,敖红光.基于AHP的生产企业风险级别分类模型研究[J].哈尔滨理工大学学报,2010,15(1)：103-107
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[20]侯运炳,杨娟,杨华,李维明.基于模糊综合评价的铁矿石海外投资风险分析[J].中国矿业,2010,19(2)：61-63
[21]万江平,王云凤,刘晴静.基于ISM的IT服务管理项目实施风险因素实证分析[J].科技管理研究,2009,(5)：487-489
[22]王成文,李莉,谭忠富,候建英.输配分开后供电公司DSM风险分析的ISM模型[J].华东电力,2008,36(1)：57-61
[23]李韩房,谭忠富,王成文,韩金山.电力市场环境下基于解释结构模型的发电企业风险结构分析[J].电网技术,2007,31(13)：59-64
[24]Jieh-Haur Chen, Jia-Zheng Lin. Developing an SVM based risk hedging prediction model for construction material suppliers[J]. Automation in Construction, 2010, In Press
[25]Lean Yu, Wuyi Yue, Shouyang Wang, K.K. Lai. Support vector machine based multiagent ensemble learning for credit risk evaluation[J]. Expert Systems with Applications,2010,37(2):1351-1360
[26]Akiko Takeda. Generalization performance of v-support vector classifier based on conditional value-at-risk minimization[J]. Neurocomputing,2009,72(10-12): 2351-2358
[27]Eliana Angelini, Giacomo di Tollo, Andrea Roli. A neural network approach for credit risk evaluation[J]. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,2008, 48(4):733-755
[28]Adnan Khashman. Neural networks for credit risk evaluation:Investigation of different neural models and learning schemes[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2010,37(9):6233-6239
[29]Thomas G. Calderon, John J. Cheh. A roadmap for future neural networks research in auditing and risk assessment[J]. International Journal of Accounting Information Systems,2002,3(4):203-236
[30]谢俊,陈星莺.构造供电公司最优电能分配策略的CVaR方法[J].现代电力,2007,24(2)：39-43
[31]谢俊,陈星莺,廖迎晨,刘皓明.构造供电公司最优购电分配策略的CCP方法[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2007,19(3)：42-45
[32]王绵斌,谭忠富,曹福成,李星梅,赵杰.输配分开环境下供电公司购电风险的优化控制模型[J].电工技术学报,2007,22(9)：184-190
[33]王绵斌,谭忠富,张蓉等.基于“增量法”下的电网投资风险评估模型[J].电工技术学报,2006,21(9)：18-24
[34]Liu Zhibin, Xiong Fengshan. The Model and Application of the Investment Risk Comprehensive Evaluation about the Electric Power Project Based on BP Neural Network[C]. Proc. International Conference on Wireless Communications, Networking and Mobile Computing,2007. WiCom 2007:5183-5186
[35]M. Oloomi Buvei, G. Balzer, H. M. Shanechi, M. Shahidehpour. Market Based Transmission Expansion Planning:Fuzzy Risk Assessment[C]. Proc.2004 IEEE International Conference on Electric Utility Deregulation, Restructuring and Power Technologies (DRPT2004),2004:427-432
[36]Chennapragada B.V.K., Radhakrishna, C., Ramamurthi Vallampati. Risk-based approach for Transmission Expansion Planning in Deregulated Environment[C]. Proc. 2006 9th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems,2006:1-4
[37]蔡冠中.电力用户信用等级分类[J].农电管理,2005,(12)：24-25
[38]刘新才,曾鸣,黄琰.基于层次分析法的电力客户信用风险评价[J].电力需求侧管理,2005,7(6)：19-21
[39]李翔,杨淑霞,黄陈锋.基于模糊多属性决策法的用电客户信用评价[J].电网技术,2004,28(21)：55-59
[40]杨淑霞,吕世森,乔艳芬.用电客户信用的主客观评价及分析[J].中国电力,2005,38(6)：1-4
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[2]雷振明.“两改一同价”对县级供电企业的影响与对策[D].北京：华北电力大学,2009
[3]刘亚安,管晓宏.考虑风险因素的两市场购电优化分配问题[J].电力系统自动化,2002,26(9)：41-44
[4]郭金,江伟,谭忠富.风险条件下供电公司最优购电问题研究[J].电网技术2004,28(11)：18-22
[5]周明,聂艳丽,李庚银等.电力市场下长期购电方案及风险评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2006,26(6)：116-122
[6]刘艳春,高闯.风险资产组合的均值-WCVaR模糊投资组合优化模型[J].中国管理科学,2006,14(6)：16-21
[7]徐绪松,王频,侯成琪.基于不同风险度量的投资组合模型的实证比较[J].武汉大学学报(理学版),2004，50(3)：311-314
[8]Zuwei Yu. Spatial energy market risk analysis using the semivariance risk measure. International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems,2007,29(8): 600-608
[9]Jun Cai, Ken Seng Tan, Chengguo Weng, Yi Zhang. Optimal reinsurance under VaR and CTE risk measures[J]. Insurance:Mathematics and Economics,2008,43(1): 185-196
[10]Elisa Luciano, Lorenzo Peccati, Donato M. Cifarelli. VaR as a risk measure for multiperiod static inventory models[J]. International Journal of Production Economics,2003, (81-81):375-384
[11]Ying Fan, Yi-Ming Wei, Wei-Xuan Xu. Application of VaR methodology to risk management in the stock market in China[J]. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 2004,46(2):383-388
[12]Xiaojiao Tong, Liqun Qi, Felix Wu Hui Zhou. A smoothing method for solving portfolio optimization with CVaR and applications in allocation of generation asset[J]. Applied Mathematics and Computation,2010,216(6):1723-1740
[13]Jinping Yu, Xiaofeng Yang, Shenghong Li. Portfolio optimization with CVaR under VG process[J]. Research in International Business and Finance,2009,23(1): 107-116
[14]Zhi-qing MENG, Xiao-fen YU, Min JIANG, Hui GAO. Risk Measure and Control Strategy of Investment Portfolio of Real Estate based on Dynamic CVaR Model[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice,2007,27(9):69-76
[15]朱宝全,邹阿荣,马振江.层次分析法在输变电工程项目风险管理中的应用[J].电站系统工程,2010,26(2)：71-72
[16]李芬花,纪昌明,刘元,邢健.基于层次分析法的水利水电工程A.D.HALL系统风险评估方法研究[J].水利水电技术,2010,41(3)：73-76
[17]周真,孙中元,刘芳,敖红光.基于AHP的生产企业风险级别分类模型研究[J].哈尔滨理工大学学报,2010,15(1)：103-107
[18]孙宾,曾勇红,孙利.改进模糊综合评判在火电项目投资风险分析中的应用[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2010,43(2)：193-196
[19]田依林.基于模糊综合评判法的企业知识创新风险评价研究[J].科技进步与对策,2010,27(8)：149-152
[20]侯运炳,杨娟,杨华,李维明.基于模糊综合评价的铁矿石海外投资风险分析[J].中国矿业,2010,19(2)：61-63
[21]万江平,王云凤,刘晴静.基于ISM的IT服务管理项目实施风险因素实证分析[J].科技管理研究,2009,(5)：487-489
[22]王成文,李莉,谭忠富,候建英.输配分开后供电公司DSM风险分析的ISM模型[J].华东电力,2008,36(1)：57-61
[23]李韩房,谭忠富,王成文,韩金山.电力市场环境下基于解释结构模型的发电企业风险结构分析[J].电网技术,2007,31(13)：59-64
[24]Jieh-Haur Chen, Jia-Zheng Lin. Developing an SVM based risk hedging prediction model for construction material suppliers[J]. Automation in Construction, 2010, In Press
[25]Lean Yu, Wuyi Yue, Shouyang Wang, K.K. Lai. Support vector machine based multiagent ensemble learning for credit risk evaluation[J]. Expert Systems with Applications,2010,37(2):1351-1360
[26]Akiko Takeda. Generalization performance of v-support vector classifier based on conditional value-at-risk minimization[J]. Neurocomputing,2009,72(10-12): 2351-2358
[27]Eliana Angelini, Giacomo di Tollo, Andrea Roli. A neural network approach for credit risk evaluation[J]. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,2008, 48(4):733-755
[28]Adnan Khashman. Neural networks for credit risk evaluation:Investigation of different neural models and learning schemes[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2010,37(9):6233-6239
[29]Thomas G. Calderon, John J. Cheh. A roadmap for future neural networks research in auditing and risk assessment[J]. International Journal of Accounting Information Systems,2002,3(4):203-236
[30]谢俊,陈星莺.构造供电公司最优电能分配策略的CVaR方法[J].现代电力,2007,24(2)：39-43
[31]谢俊,陈星莺,廖迎晨,刘皓明.构造供电公司最优购电分配策略的CCP方法[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2007,19(3)：42-45
[32]王绵斌,谭忠富,曹福成,李星梅,赵杰.输配分开环境下供电公司购电风险的优化控制模型[J].电工技术学报,2007,22(9)：184-190
[33]王绵斌,谭忠富,张蓉等.基于“增量法”下的电网投资风险评估模型[J].电工技术学报,2006,21(9)：18-24
[34]Liu Zhibin, Xiong Fengshan. The Model and Application of the Investment Risk Comprehensive Evaluation about the Electric Power Project Based on BP Neural Network[C]. Proc. International Conference on Wireless Communications, Networking and Mobile Computing,2007. WiCom 2007:5183-5186
[35]M. Oloomi Buvei, G. Balzer, H. M. Shanechi, M. Shahidehpour. Market Based Transmission Expansion Planning:Fuzzy Risk Assessment[C]. Proc.2004 IEEE International Conference on Electric Utility Deregulation, Restructuring and Power Technologies (DRPT2004),2004:427-432
[36]Chennapragada B.V.K., Radhakrishna, C., Ramamurthi Vallampati. Risk-based approach for Transmission Expansion Planning in Deregulated Environment[C]. Proc. 2006 9th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems,2006:1-4
[37]蔡冠中.电力用户信用等级分类[J].农电管理,2005,(12)：24-25
[38]刘新才,曾鸣,黄琰.基于层次分析法的电力客户信用风险评价[J].电力需求侧管理,2005,7(6)：19-21
[39]李翔,杨淑霞,黄陈锋.基于模糊多属性决策法的用电客户信用评价[J].电网技术,2004,28(21)：55-59
[40]杨淑霞,吕世森,乔艳芬.用电客户信用的主客观评价及分析[J].中国电力,2005,38(6)：1-4
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