重庆市旅游业产业关联及经济贡献研究
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摘要
旅游业本身具有的涉及面广、关联度高、相关性强等特点,使其成为国民经济发展新的经济增长点之一。然而也是这些特殊性使得如何准确测量旅游业对一国或一地区的经济贡献一直比较困难。
本文通过引入旅游卫星账户的相关技术方法,在重庆市2007年投入产出表的基础上编制重庆市旅游经济价值型投入产出表,通过投入系数,完全消耗系数,分配系数,中间投入率,中间需求率,影响力及影响力系数,感应度及感应度系数等指标定量分析了重庆市旅游业与其他产业部门的产业关联,得出结论,重庆市旅游业尚处在不发达阶段,距离支柱产业仍有一定的差距。旅游业对其先行产业存在着较强的产业关联性及产业影响力,对其他国民经济产业部门的拉动作用强于对它们的支撑作用。同时在上述分析的基础上,利用完全消耗系数结合旅游消费剥离系数法得到了旅游业对经济总量,社会就业及财政收入的具体贡献度。同时对重庆市旅游业的发展提出了相应的政策建议,认为旅游业应在可持续发展战略的指导下,走旅游产业化发展道路,通过加强基础设施建设,健全完善国民经济核算体系,建立重庆市区域旅游卫星账户等具体的可行性措施来促进旅游业的发展。
The tourism industry has to involve a wide range of hotels, restaurants, shops, means of transport, and etc. And the high industry association between it and these industries has made it a new economic growth point of the economic development. The tourism industry has its own special characteristics that make the accurate measurement of the tourism economic contribution to a country or a region's economy difficult.
In this paper, the conclusions that Chongqing tourism industry is still in its underdevelopment stage and far from a pillar industry are got through the introduction of technical approaches of tourism satellite accounts, and the analysis of the industry association between Chongqing tourism and other sectors of, and on the basis of the economic value of Chongqing Tourism input-output tables by Chongqing Municipality in 2007 including the input factor, total consumption coefficient, the distribution coefficient, the intermediate input rate, the intermediate demand rate, influence and influence coefficient, sensitivity and the sensitivity coefficient index. The existence of its first strong industry association and the influences of the tourism industry on other industrial sectors in boosting the national economy are stronger than that of their supporting role. While taking advantage of the complete consumption index and the consumption stripping coefficient analysis, this paper got the conclusions of Chongqing's total contribution degree of the tourism to the national economy, the national employment and the state revenue, and at the same time put forward some development strategies on how to develop the tourism in Chongqing City, thinking that the development should be realized under the guidance of the strategy of sustainable development ,by some feasible but specific measures such as strengthening infrastructure constructions, perfecting the national economic accounting system and establishing a regional tourism satellite account.
本文通过引入旅游卫星账户的相关技术方法,在重庆市2007年投入产出表的基础上编制重庆市旅游经济价值型投入产出表,通过投入系数,完全消耗系数,分配系数,中间投入率,中间需求率,影响力及影响力系数,感应度及感应度系数等指标定量分析了重庆市旅游业与其他产业部门的产业关联,得出结论,重庆市旅游业尚处在不发达阶段,距离支柱产业仍有一定的差距。旅游业对其先行产业存在着较强的产业关联性及产业影响力,对其他国民经济产业部门的拉动作用强于对它们的支撑作用。同时在上述分析的基础上,利用完全消耗系数结合旅游消费剥离系数法得到了旅游业对经济总量,社会就业及财政收入的具体贡献度。同时对重庆市旅游业的发展提出了相应的政策建议,认为旅游业应在可持续发展战略的指导下,走旅游产业化发展道路,通过加强基础设施建设,健全完善国民经济核算体系,建立重庆市区域旅游卫星账户等具体的可行性措施来促进旅游业的发展。
The tourism industry has to involve a wide range of hotels, restaurants, shops, means of transport, and etc. And the high industry association between it and these industries has made it a new economic growth point of the economic development. The tourism industry has its own special characteristics that make the accurate measurement of the tourism economic contribution to a country or a region's economy difficult.
In this paper, the conclusions that Chongqing tourism industry is still in its underdevelopment stage and far from a pillar industry are got through the introduction of technical approaches of tourism satellite accounts, and the analysis of the industry association between Chongqing tourism and other sectors of, and on the basis of the economic value of Chongqing Tourism input-output tables by Chongqing Municipality in 2007 including the input factor, total consumption coefficient, the distribution coefficient, the intermediate input rate, the intermediate demand rate, influence and influence coefficient, sensitivity and the sensitivity coefficient index. The existence of its first strong industry association and the influences of the tourism industry on other industrial sectors in boosting the national economy are stronger than that of their supporting role. While taking advantage of the complete consumption index and the consumption stripping coefficient analysis, this paper got the conclusions of Chongqing's total contribution degree of the tourism to the national economy, the national employment and the state revenue, and at the same time put forward some development strategies on how to develop the tourism in Chongqing City, thinking that the development should be realized under the guidance of the strategy of sustainable development ,by some feasible but specific measures such as strengthening infrastructure constructions, perfecting the national economic accounting system and establishing a regional tourism satellite account.
引文
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[2]闫敏.旅游业与经济发展水平之间的关系[J].旅游科学,1999,(5):9-12
[3]李江帆,李美云等.旅游业的产业关联及产业波及分析——以广东为例[J].旅游学刊,2001,(3):19-25
[4]吴必虎.区域旅游规划原理[M].北京:中国旅游出版社,2001,51-70
[5]张帆.旅游对区域经济发展贡献度研究[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2003,6,(1):5-17
[6]宋增文.基于投入产出模型的中国旅游业产业关联度研究[J].旅游科学,2007,(2):7-12
[7]谢彦君.基础旅游学[M].北京:中国旅游出版社,1999,(12):10-17
[8]陈宁.辽宁省旅游经济效应分析及对策研究[D].[东北财经大学硕士学位论文],2007
[9]库珀等编著,张俐俐等编译.旅游学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2007,(3):268-300
[10] Adam Blake, Ramesh Durbarry. Integrating forecasting and CGE models :the case of tourism in Scot land[J]. Tourism Management ,2006 ,27(2) :292-305
[11]罗明义.旅游经济学——分析方法·案例[M].天津:南开大学出版社,2005:8-20
[12]李江帆,李美云.旅游产业与旅游增加值的测算[J].旅游学刊,1999,(5):16-19
[13]李志青.旅游业产出贡献的经济分析-上海市旅游业的产出贡献和乘数效应[J].上海经济研究,2001,(12):66-69
[14]康蓉.旅游卫星账户与旅游需求信息采集体系[J].统计与信息论坛,2004,(6):32-35
[15]赵丽霞.创建我国国家旅游卫星账户初探[J].厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2001,(4):32-37
[16]杨仲山,屈超.从方法论角度看旅游卫星账户TSA(2001)的方法属性[J].财经问题研究,2007,(11):28-32
[17]王燕,王哲.基于投入产出模型的新疆旅游业产业关联及产业波及分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2008,(5):112-117
[18]戴斌等.论北京旅游产业安全与生产要素[M].北京:旅游教育出版社,2006:133
[19]王雷震,张帆,李春光.旅游对区域经济发展贡献度定量测度方法及其应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2006,(5):54-62
[20]国家发展和改革委员会,国家旅游局课题组.中国旅游就业目标体系与战略措施研究[M].北京:中国旅游出版社,2004,(5):1-7
[21]韩勇,郑远强.海南省旅游业对经济影响效果的实证分析[J].海南大学学报人文社会科学版,2003,21(1):50-53?
[22]白斌飞,彭莉莎.基于投入产出法的四川省旅游业的产业波及效应分析[J].成都信息工程学院学报,2007,22(3):403-406
[23]李为科,刘金萍,郭跃.基于投入产出分析法的重庆旅游业产业波及效应分析[J].南京晓庄学院学报,2006,(4):96-100?
[24]张俐俐.对中国旅游业产业地位的认识与思考[J].海南大学学报人文社会科学版,2002,20(2):89-92?
[25]黄大勇.加入WTO对重庆旅游业发展的影响与对策[J].重庆工商大学学报(社会科学版),2002,9(1):26-28
[26]黎洁,连传鹏,黄芳.江苏旅游业固定资产投资对地区经济的贡献[J].统计与决策,2008,(18):85-87
[27]崔峰.江苏省国民经济中旅游业地位评价的研究[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2007,7(4):108-114?
[28]戴斌.金融危机影响下中国旅游经济:趋势与对策[J].北京第二外国语学院学报,2009,(1):27-30
[29]崔峰.近30年来中国旅游业经济影响力研究[J].地理与地理信息科学,2008,24(6):64-67
[30]魏为,陈雪钧.旅游产业经济贡献综合评析-以湖北省为例[J].经济地理,2006,26(2):331-334
[31]林源源.旅游产业竞争力的SEM研究-以江西省为例[J].南京社会科学,2008,(7):150-155
[32]徐虹,陈瑞.旅游产业竞争潜力构成及其影响变量分析[J].天津商业大学学报,2008,28(4):3-7
[33]王大维.旅游产业区域经济效应研究综述[J].科教文汇,2008,(3):128-129
[34]李岩,金浩,李延军.产业关联效应的计量分析及主导产业的选择[J].河北工业大学学报,2004,33(3):87-91
[35]张广海,马永健.国内外旅游卫星账户(TSA)研究比较及启示[J].统计与咨询,2005,(6):44-45
[36]陈静,王丽华.旅游经济影响研究回顾与展望[J].旅游论坛,2009,2(2):264-269
[37]陆林.旅游区域经济效应-安徽黄山市案例研究[J].南京大学学报(哲学人文社会科学),1997,(2):53-59
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