城市居民出行调查抽样技术与数据分析研究
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摘要
居民出行调查是指在调查区域内,对一定比例的市民一天内的出行特征(如出行强度、出行目的、出行方式、出行时间、出行起讫点等)、家庭属性、个人属性的调查,从而掌握城市交通出行总量、主要发生吸引源、时空分布、交通使用方式等资料。居民出行调查是交通规划中OD调查的重要内容,为交通需求预测和制定交通规划方案的提供基础交通数据,对城市综合交通规划和管理起重要作用。
居民出行调查需要耗费大量的人力、物力和财力,调查内容广泛,组织工作难度较大,从前期的方案设计、宣传工作、调查员培训到后期的实施调查、数据处理,每一个环节都会影响整个调查工作的质量。本文主要从抽样技术和数据处理两方面进行研究,目的在于对现有的方法进行改进,以促进居民出行调查技术的完善。
本文在分析常用的抽样调查方法的基础上,首先结合城市居民出行调查特点,提出了最优二重分层等距抽样方法,并根据数理统计原理和费用函数得出了最优模型,还对分层标志和分层数量进行了进一步探讨。然后通过对城市居民出行调查确定原则和调查目标的分析,以调查数据精确度要求为基础,来进行居民出行调查抽样率的设计,计算出了不同置信区间的抽样率,提出相应的参考值,并进行其敏感性分析,减少调查误差。再次通过对城市居民出行调查数据结果分析,可得其数据特点和分析方法,结合Access数据库特点建立西宁市居民出行调查数据管理系统,并进行相应的原始数据分析和校核扩样。最后将本文的抽样技术和数据分析方法应用于西宁市居民出行调查的具体实践中,取得了良好的效果。
Resident trip survey will get the trip characteristics (such as trip frequency, trip purpose, trip mode, trip time, trip origin and destination points, etc.)、family property、personal property of a certain proportion of the population in the survey region one day, which grasps the dates such as the total urban traffic travel、the mainly trip generation and attraction source、temporal and spatial distribution、trip mode usage、etc. Resident trip survey is an important content of OD survey in traffic planning, which provides basic traffic data for the traffic demand forecast and the development of transportation planning programs plays an important role in urban integrated transport planning and management.
Resident trip survey need takes huge human, material and financial resources, but also includes many links, from the preliminary design, publicity, training of investigators to the late implementation of the survey, data processing, every aspect will affect the whole quality, which requires implementation of the unit to fully consider every aspect of the relevant factors. This paper will research sampling technique and data processing, aims at improvement of existing methods and improves the resident trip survey technique.
Firstly, on the base of used sample survey methods and the special permit of resident trip survey, this paper proposes the Optimal Two-Phase Equidistant Sampling, shows the optimal model based on principles of mathematical statistics and cost functions, further explores the hierarchical sign and hierarchical number. Then studying determined principles and investigation objectives of resident trip survey, this paper carries out design the sampling rate based on the requirement of survey data accuracy, inducts sensitivity analysis to reduce the risk of error. Following by the results analysis of resident trip survey data, this paper obtains data features and analysis. Combined features of Access database this paper sets up in Xining City resident trip survey data management system and corresponds expansion of the original data analysis and calibration sample. Finally, the sampling techniques and data analysis methods are used in Xining City resident trip survey practice, achieves good results.
居民出行调查需要耗费大量的人力、物力和财力,调查内容广泛,组织工作难度较大,从前期的方案设计、宣传工作、调查员培训到后期的实施调查、数据处理,每一个环节都会影响整个调查工作的质量。本文主要从抽样技术和数据处理两方面进行研究,目的在于对现有的方法进行改进,以促进居民出行调查技术的完善。
本文在分析常用的抽样调查方法的基础上,首先结合城市居民出行调查特点,提出了最优二重分层等距抽样方法,并根据数理统计原理和费用函数得出了最优模型,还对分层标志和分层数量进行了进一步探讨。然后通过对城市居民出行调查确定原则和调查目标的分析,以调查数据精确度要求为基础,来进行居民出行调查抽样率的设计,计算出了不同置信区间的抽样率,提出相应的参考值,并进行其敏感性分析,减少调查误差。再次通过对城市居民出行调查数据结果分析,可得其数据特点和分析方法,结合Access数据库特点建立西宁市居民出行调查数据管理系统,并进行相应的原始数据分析和校核扩样。最后将本文的抽样技术和数据分析方法应用于西宁市居民出行调查的具体实践中,取得了良好的效果。
Resident trip survey will get the trip characteristics (such as trip frequency, trip purpose, trip mode, trip time, trip origin and destination points, etc.)、family property、personal property of a certain proportion of the population in the survey region one day, which grasps the dates such as the total urban traffic travel、the mainly trip generation and attraction source、temporal and spatial distribution、trip mode usage、etc. Resident trip survey is an important content of OD survey in traffic planning, which provides basic traffic data for the traffic demand forecast and the development of transportation planning programs plays an important role in urban integrated transport planning and management.
Resident trip survey need takes huge human, material and financial resources, but also includes many links, from the preliminary design, publicity, training of investigators to the late implementation of the survey, data processing, every aspect will affect the whole quality, which requires implementation of the unit to fully consider every aspect of the relevant factors. This paper will research sampling technique and data processing, aims at improvement of existing methods and improves the resident trip survey technique.
Firstly, on the base of used sample survey methods and the special permit of resident trip survey, this paper proposes the Optimal Two-Phase Equidistant Sampling, shows the optimal model based on principles of mathematical statistics and cost functions, further explores the hierarchical sign and hierarchical number. Then studying determined principles and investigation objectives of resident trip survey, this paper carries out design the sampling rate based on the requirement of survey data accuracy, inducts sensitivity analysis to reduce the risk of error. Following by the results analysis of resident trip survey data, this paper obtains data features and analysis. Combined features of Access database this paper sets up in Xining City resident trip survey data management system and corresponds expansion of the original data analysis and calibration sample. Finally, the sampling techniques and data analysis methods are used in Xining City resident trip survey practice, achieves good results.
引文
[1]陆华普.解析城市交通[M].北京：中国水利水电出版社,2001,12-14
[2]刘灿齐.现代交通规划[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2001,142-165
[3]陆华普.交通规划理论与方法[M].北京：清华大学出版社,1998,33-39
[4]Statewide Travel Demand Modeling:a peer exchange, Transportation Record Board,2005
[5]Kuwahara, Masao, Edward C.Sullivan, Estimation Origin-Destination Matrices from Roadside Survey Data. Transportation Research, Part B:Methodological, V 21B,N 3,Jun,1987,21-59
[6]Origin-Destination Statistics and Research Agency,2001,9
[7]E Q V Martins. On a Particular Quadric Network problem. European Journal of Operational Research,1987,29,317-327
[8]周干峙.发展我国大城市交通的研究[M].北京：中国建筑工业出版社,1997.25-85
[9]Statewide Travel Demand Modeling:a peer exchange,Transportation Record Board,2005
[10]Ashley.Kershaw,Jeremy.Barton.National.Survey:Technical.Report.2000.Department for Transport,Local government and the Regions.2001
[11]刘军民.日本的交通调查[J].交通运输,2000(2)：28-32
[12]戴逢,金峰等.广州市1984年居民出行调查综合研究报告[R].广州：广州市人民政府,1986
[13]王峰,马小毅等.广州市1998年万户居民出行调查报告[R].广州：广州市交通规划研究所,1998
[14]周鹤龙,贺崇明等.广州市2005年居民出行调查报告[R].广州：广州市交通规划研究所,2006
[15]冯士雍.抽样调查理论与方法[M].北京：中国统计出版社,1998,24-145
[16]李纪治,丁岳维,王建伟.汽车运输抽样调查方法研究[J].西安公路学院学报,1994,14(3)：88-93
[17]石飞,陆建,王炜,葛宏伟.居民出行调查抽样率模型[J].交通运输工程学报,2004,4(4)：88-93
[18]廖利钊,顾保南.OD调查中的抽样率问题[J].上海铁道大学学报,1996,17(2)：91-94
[19]王炜,过修成.交通工程学[M].南京：东南大学出版社,2003,71
[20]王建军,严宝杰.交通调查与分析[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2004,71
[21]中国公路学会编.交通工程手册[M].北京：人民交通出版社,1998,124-136
[22]陆锡明等.2007年上海市居民出行调查报告[R].上海：上海市城市综合交通规划研究所,2007
[231 http://www.csup.gov.cn/article/articlel.asp?id=26302&classid=96,2009-06-08/2009-12-1 4
[24]王炜等著.城市交通规划[M].南京：东南大学出版社,1999,68-76
[25]孙山泽.抽样调查[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2004,1
[26]金勇进,蒋妍,李序颖.抽样技术[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2002,8-17
[27]李纪治,李晓风,马江洪.抽样调查理论与技术应用[M].北京：人民交通出版社,1997,17
[28]杨军,刘小明,张德欣等.居民出行调查二重分层抽样模型[J].北京工业大学学报,2007(8)：828-833
[29]文国玮.城市交通与道路系统规划[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2001,24-82
[30]冯士雍,施锡铨.抽样调查——理论、方法与实践[M].上海：上海科学技术出版社,1996,34-52
[31]陆华普.交通规划理论与方法[M].北京：清华大学出版社,1998,124-125
[32]石飞,王炜,陆建.我国城市居民出行调查抽样率确定方法探讨与研究[J].公路交通科技,2007(10)：109-112
[33]王京元,王炜,程琳.居民出行调查中抽样技术研究[J].公路交通科技,2005(4)：99-103
[34]W.G.科克伦著.张尧庭,吴辉,译.抽样技术[M].北京：中国统计出版社,1985,184-185
[35]陆华普.交通规划理论与方法(第二版)[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006,39
[36]黄健中.1980年代以来我国特大城市居民出行特征分析[J].城市规划学刊,2005(3)：71-75
[37]黄德才.数据库原理及其应用教程[M].北京：科学出版社,2002,187-210
[38]李敬业,王颖.Visual Basic+Access数据库应用实例完全解析[M].北京：人民邮电出版社,2006,41-85
[39]郭强.抽样调查手册[M].北京：中国时代经济出版社,2004,49-52
[40]TransCAD User Guide[R]美国：Caliper公司,2000
[41]彭辉等.2009年西宁市居民出行调查报告[R].西安：长安大学交通工程研究所,2009
[2]刘灿齐.现代交通规划[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2001,142-165
[3]陆华普.交通规划理论与方法[M].北京：清华大学出版社,1998,33-39
[4]Statewide Travel Demand Modeling:a peer exchange, Transportation Record Board,2005
[5]Kuwahara, Masao, Edward C.Sullivan, Estimation Origin-Destination Matrices from Roadside Survey Data. Transportation Research, Part B:Methodological, V 21B,N 3,Jun,1987,21-59
[6]Origin-Destination Statistics and Research Agency,2001,9
[7]E Q V Martins. On a Particular Quadric Network problem. European Journal of Operational Research,1987,29,317-327
[8]周干峙.发展我国大城市交通的研究[M].北京：中国建筑工业出版社,1997.25-85
[9]Statewide Travel Demand Modeling:a peer exchange,Transportation Record Board,2005
[10]Ashley.Kershaw,Jeremy.Barton.National.Survey:Technical.Report.2000.Department for Transport,Local government and the Regions.2001
[11]刘军民.日本的交通调查[J].交通运输,2000(2)：28-32
[12]戴逢,金峰等.广州市1984年居民出行调查综合研究报告[R].广州：广州市人民政府,1986
[13]王峰,马小毅等.广州市1998年万户居民出行调查报告[R].广州：广州市交通规划研究所,1998
[14]周鹤龙,贺崇明等.广州市2005年居民出行调查报告[R].广州：广州市交通规划研究所,2006
[15]冯士雍.抽样调查理论与方法[M].北京：中国统计出版社,1998,24-145
[16]李纪治,丁岳维,王建伟.汽车运输抽样调查方法研究[J].西安公路学院学报,1994,14(3)：88-93
[17]石飞,陆建,王炜,葛宏伟.居民出行调查抽样率模型[J].交通运输工程学报,2004,4(4)：88-93
[18]廖利钊,顾保南.OD调查中的抽样率问题[J].上海铁道大学学报,1996,17(2)：91-94
[19]王炜,过修成.交通工程学[M].南京：东南大学出版社,2003,71
[20]王建军,严宝杰.交通调查与分析[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2004,71
[21]中国公路学会编.交通工程手册[M].北京：人民交通出版社,1998,124-136
[22]陆锡明等.2007年上海市居民出行调查报告[R].上海：上海市城市综合交通规划研究所,2007
[231 http://www.csup.gov.cn/article/articlel.asp?id=26302&classid=96,2009-06-08/2009-12-1 4
[24]王炜等著.城市交通规划[M].南京：东南大学出版社,1999,68-76
[25]孙山泽.抽样调查[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2004,1
[26]金勇进,蒋妍,李序颖.抽样技术[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2002,8-17
[27]李纪治,李晓风,马江洪.抽样调查理论与技术应用[M].北京：人民交通出版社,1997,17
[28]杨军,刘小明,张德欣等.居民出行调查二重分层抽样模型[J].北京工业大学学报,2007(8)：828-833
[29]文国玮.城市交通与道路系统规划[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2001,24-82
[30]冯士雍,施锡铨.抽样调查——理论、方法与实践[M].上海：上海科学技术出版社,1996,34-52
[31]陆华普.交通规划理论与方法[M].北京：清华大学出版社,1998,124-125
[32]石飞,王炜,陆建.我国城市居民出行调查抽样率确定方法探讨与研究[J].公路交通科技,2007(10)：109-112
[33]王京元,王炜,程琳.居民出行调查中抽样技术研究[J].公路交通科技,2005(4)：99-103
[34]W.G.科克伦著.张尧庭,吴辉,译.抽样技术[M].北京：中国统计出版社,1985,184-185
[35]陆华普.交通规划理论与方法(第二版)[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006,39
[36]黄健中.1980年代以来我国特大城市居民出行特征分析[J].城市规划学刊,2005(3)：71-75
[37]黄德才.数据库原理及其应用教程[M].北京：科学出版社,2002,187-210
[38]李敬业,王颖.Visual Basic+Access数据库应用实例完全解析[M].北京：人民邮电出版社,2006,41-85
[39]郭强.抽样调查手册[M].北京：中国时代经济出版社,2004,49-52
[40]TransCAD User Guide[R]美国：Caliper公司,2000
[41]彭辉等.2009年西宁市居民出行调查报告[R].西安：长安大学交通工程研究所,2009
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