基于灰色理论的路面使用性能预测及路网养护策略研究
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摘要
随着我国公路建设事业的飞速发展,养护管理工作日益繁重,这主要表现为:早期修建的公路很多已经接近使用年限,需要翻修和改建;一些新建公路也由于诸多原因,出现了不同程度的损坏。在国外,路面管理系统已经被证明是一个统筹养护资金分配、维持路网服务水平的有效工具。在我国,“七五”期间曾经开展普通公路路面管理系统的研究,而高速公路路面管理系统的研究、应用则刚刚起步。今后交通工作地重点必将由大规模建设转移到养护管理工作上来,这凸显了路面管理系统的重要性。
路面性能预测模型的准确性是影响路面管理系统分析结果优劣的一个重要影响因素。由于我国经济技术水平的限制,路况数据采集手段落后,再加上某些人为的原因,可靠数据严重不足,缺乏必要的路面性能实测数据的积累,为提高对路面使用性能指标的预测和加强路面养护管理的决策,结合灰色系统“少数据建模”的特点,本论文给出了基于灰色系统理论的使用性能预测模型。证明了用该方法建立路面性能预测模型的优越性。
在路面使用性能决策优化方面,本文利用0-1整数规划原理,建立了沥青路面养护决策优化模型。
最后,本文在上述基础上开发了路网养护规划系统软件,阐述了系统的总体设计和系统的功能,并给出了实例;同时叙述了本文研究的结论,对进一步研究的内容进行了展望。
With the road construction’s development in our county, maintenance management work is heavy more and more, that indicates in the following aspects that the roads built in early days mostly have already neared to their service life, needing to be reconstructed, the ones built lately also have damage ofvarious degrees for many reasons. In foreign countries,Pavement Management System (PMS) is proved to be an efficient tool to allocate maintenance funds and maintain the service level of road network. In China, during the seventh“five years project”, the researchers had done some researches on Pavement Management System for ordinary road network, but the research and the application of Pavement Management System to manage freeway network is atthe beginning step. Maintenance management will be laid a strong emphasis in transportation work from now on, so pavement management system is important more and more.
Pavement condition prediction model is one of the most important factors that affect the analysis result of PMS. Date collection means of pavement condition are backward for the limit of economic technique level, and reliable date are in the very scarce for person’s reason. The paper combines“model of few of date”features of gray system, and project management system based on gray system theory is proposed in it for enhancing the prediction level of pavement performance and strengthening decision-making of pavement maintenance management. Result shows that this is a good way to form pavement prediction model.
In performance optimization decision based on 0-1 integer programming principle, a model of optimum decision for maintenance of asphalt pavement is established in this paper.
Finally, this paper builds a pavement management system, and summarizes general system design and system’s function. An example is given to show how to use the system. Meanwhile, the conclusions of asphalt pavement management system are presented and the potential prospects in this area are discussed.
路面性能预测模型的准确性是影响路面管理系统分析结果优劣的一个重要影响因素。由于我国经济技术水平的限制,路况数据采集手段落后,再加上某些人为的原因,可靠数据严重不足,缺乏必要的路面性能实测数据的积累,为提高对路面使用性能指标的预测和加强路面养护管理的决策,结合灰色系统“少数据建模”的特点,本论文给出了基于灰色系统理论的使用性能预测模型。证明了用该方法建立路面性能预测模型的优越性。
在路面使用性能决策优化方面,本文利用0-1整数规划原理,建立了沥青路面养护决策优化模型。
最后,本文在上述基础上开发了路网养护规划系统软件,阐述了系统的总体设计和系统的功能,并给出了实例;同时叙述了本文研究的结论,对进一步研究的内容进行了展望。
With the road construction’s development in our county, maintenance management work is heavy more and more, that indicates in the following aspects that the roads built in early days mostly have already neared to their service life, needing to be reconstructed, the ones built lately also have damage ofvarious degrees for many reasons. In foreign countries,Pavement Management System (PMS) is proved to be an efficient tool to allocate maintenance funds and maintain the service level of road network. In China, during the seventh“five years project”, the researchers had done some researches on Pavement Management System for ordinary road network, but the research and the application of Pavement Management System to manage freeway network is atthe beginning step. Maintenance management will be laid a strong emphasis in transportation work from now on, so pavement management system is important more and more.
Pavement condition prediction model is one of the most important factors that affect the analysis result of PMS. Date collection means of pavement condition are backward for the limit of economic technique level, and reliable date are in the very scarce for person’s reason. The paper combines“model of few of date”features of gray system, and project management system based on gray system theory is proposed in it for enhancing the prediction level of pavement performance and strengthening decision-making of pavement maintenance management. Result shows that this is a good way to form pavement prediction model.
In performance optimization decision based on 0-1 integer programming principle, a model of optimum decision for maintenance of asphalt pavement is established in this paper.
Finally, this paper builds a pavement management system, and summarizes general system design and system’s function. An example is given to show how to use the system. Meanwhile, the conclusions of asphalt pavement management system are presented and the potential prospects in this area are discussed.
引文
1 AASHTO. AASHTO Guidelines For Pavement Management Systems[S]. American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. Washington, D.C. July 1990.
2 FHWA. Federal-Aid Highway Program Manual[S]. Federal Highway Administra -tion, U.S. Department of Transportation. Washington, D.C.. March,1989
3 Ralph Haas. Modern Pavement Management[M], Krieger Publishing Company Malabar, Florida, 1994.
4 Kathleen T. Hall, Carlos E. Correa. Rehabilitation Strategies for Highway Pavement[R]. NCHRP Web Document 35, 2002.5.
5天津市公路局.天津市半刚性基层沥青路面养护技术研究报告[R].2007.
6 The Ohio Department of Transportation Office of Pavement Engineering. Pavement Condition Rating System[S]. The Ohio Department of Transportation Office of Pavement Engineering, 2004.4
7 ASTM Committee. Standard Test Method for Airport Pavement Condition Index Surveys[S], ASTM Committee, 2004.7
8武健民.半刚性基层沥青路面使用性能衰变规律研究[D].博士学位论文.西安:长安大学, 2005
9谢旭飞.基于BP神经网络的路面使用性能预测与影响因素分析[D].硕士学位论文.哈尔滨工业大学, 2004
10潘玉利.路面管理系统基础教程.北京:人民交通出版社,2002
11孙立军,刘喜平.路面使用性能的标准衰变方程.同济大学学报, 1995(5): 512~518
12朱定勤,梁平安,潘玉利.基于CPMS技术的公路预防性养护规划与计划.公路, 2006: No.8
13李明等.路面管理系统发展综述[J].重庆交通学院学报, 2005(6): Vo1.24 No.3: 69~76
14 Lecher R.V and Nelson TL. Washington state’s Pavement Management System Proceeding, 5th Internation Conference on the Structure Design of Aaphalt Pavements, the Nether lands,1982
15陈国靖.国外公路路面管理系统研究动态[J].国外公路, 1998.8
16刘晓明.美国路面管理系统的问题与启示[J].中南公路工程, 2000.3
17 The Highway Development and Management Series. Volume one, (Overview ofHDM-4). The World Bank, 2000
18 Still P. B.A pavement management system for U.K roads. Highways and Transportation, 1900, 37(2): 6~9
19朱罡.高速公路沥青路面路面管理系统分析与开发[D].硕士学位论文.长沙理工大学,2008(04):12~13
20 Wang K. C.P, Zaniewsk J. and Way G. Probabilistic Behavior of Pavements, Journal of Transportation Engineering. American Society of Civil Engineers, Vol.120, No.3, 1994
21余光喜.路面管理系统在公路养护决策中的应用.华东公路: Total No.8(66~68)
22 Yichang Tsai, James S. Lai. A Framework and Strategy for Implementing and IT-based Pavement Management System. TRB2002,2002
23 Stephen T. Munech, George C. White. A Web-Enabled Management System. TRB2004. 2004
24甄侦.基于GIS的路面管理系统框架研究[D].硕士学位论文.西南交通大学, 2007
25河北省交通厅科研课题.高速公路养护管理地理信息系统[R]. 2002.10
26 Adrian Ricardo Archilla,Samer Madanat. Development of a Pavement Rutting Model form Experimental Data. Journal of Transportation Engineering.2000,7(8): 291～299
27席芳柏,熊伟贤.公路路面性能预测模型建立.公路, 1999, 1: 37～43
28唐有君.道路经济与管理.上海:同济大学, 1998
29 Sharaf C.L. and Majizadeh K. Distress Prediction Models for a Net-work-level Pavement Management System, Transportation Research Record 1344, TRB, National Academy of Science Washington D.C.U.S.A,1992
30 J.J. Lu, J. Yang, and M. Gunaratne. Pavement surface performance forecasting by neuron network models. Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of South Florida
31朱建民,马敬坤,李中秋等.国产天然沥青改性沥青路用性能研究[R].课题鉴定资料, 2003
32陈杰.沈大高速公路沥青路面评价与养护对策[D].硕士学位论文.西安公路交通大学,1999.80~84
33杭飞.半刚性沥青路面交通荷载适应能力分析[D].硕士学位论文.哈尔滨工业大学, 2007
34邓聚龙.灰色控制系统(第二版).武汉:华中理工大学出版社, 1997
35张永杰.灰色系统理论在道路货运量、货运周转量预测中的应用.交通运输系统工程与信息, 2003, 3(1): 75~79
36冯利华.灰色预测模型的问题讨论.系统工程理论与实践, 1997(l2): 125~128
37陈世联.灰色系统的几个理论问题.系统工程, 1997, l5(1): 20~23
38 J.D. Lea. Neural network for performance prediction on unsealed roads. Road & Transportation Research. Mar 1999
39 Fw T.F. Shap characteristics of Pavement Performance Curves, Journal of Transportation Engineering, American Society of Civil Engineers, Vol.116, No.5, 1994
40刘思峰,郭天榜等,灰色系统理论及其应用(第二版)[M].北京:科学出版社,1999
41 Liang RH. Application of grey relation analysis to hydroelectric generation scheduling. International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems.1999, 21(5): 357-364
42 Joseph A. Guerre, Williarn E. Robert. The Ontario Executive Support System-Integrating Pavement and bridge Management System, TRB2005, 2005
43交通部CPMS推广工作组.交通部CPMS推广应用报告.交通部公路科学研究所, 1996
44何兆益,邓学钧.路面养护改建项目的优先次序评定.东南大学学报, 1995.11 vol. 25 No.6
45刘伯应,姚祖康.网级路面管理系统中优化方法的研究.中国公路学报,1994 vol.7 No.3
46潘玉利,曾沛霖等,路面大中修养护投资分析模型,中国公路学报, 1992 vol.5 No.3
47刘可.水泥混凝土路面网级优化的动态规划模型.西安公路交通大学学报, 1996 vol.16 No.3
48李志刚,洪锋.动态规划原理在高速公路网级养护决策中的应用.解放军理工大学学报(自然科学版), 2002.2 vol.3 No.1
49胡霞光,王秉刚.应用遗传算法技术优化路面决策.公路交通科技, 2002.4
50李志刚,刘新杰,邓学钧.基于神经网络的高速公路沥青路面决策方法研究.公路交通科技, 2001 vol.18 No.4
51 AASHTO. Guidelines for pavement management systems, America Association of State Highway and Transportation officials, 444 North Capital Street, N.W. Suite 225, Washington, D.C.20001, USA, 1990
52 AASHTO. Pavement Management Guide: Executive Summary Report. America Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, 2001
53 Hass R., Huston W. R., John Z. Modern pavement management. Florida: Krieger Publishing Company, 1994.35~44
54 Hadley W.O., Copeland C. and Rowshan S. Strategic Highway Research Program-Long-Term Pavement Performance Information Management System, Transportation Research Record 1435, TRB, National Academy of Science, Washington D. C , U.S.A.,1994
55 Marcotte B.et al. Alberta’s municipal Pavement management system[J]. North American Conference on Managing Pavement, Vol.l, Toronto, 1987
56 Way G. B. Network Optimization System for Arizona. Proceedings, NAPMC, Toronto, Canada, 1985
57常魁和,高群.公路沥青路面养护新技术[M].北京:人民交通出版社, 2001
58马敬坤.高速公路沥青路面养护对策选择研究[J].公路运输文2004(4):44~46
59殷建军,王秉纲,胡春年等.公路路面养护决策系统的开发与实践.华东公路, 1994(3): 48~52
60周清,周家兵,刘云波.公路路面管理系统(JPMS)的应用.江苏交通科技, 1998(6): 23~25
61殷建军,姚祖康.路面管理系统的开发与实施.中国公路学报, 1997, 10(2): 17~23
2 FHWA. Federal-Aid Highway Program Manual[S]. Federal Highway Administra -tion, U.S. Department of Transportation. Washington, D.C.. March,1989
3 Ralph Haas. Modern Pavement Management[M], Krieger Publishing Company Malabar, Florida, 1994.
4 Kathleen T. Hall, Carlos E. Correa. Rehabilitation Strategies for Highway Pavement[R]. NCHRP Web Document 35, 2002.5.
5天津市公路局.天津市半刚性基层沥青路面养护技术研究报告[R].2007.
6 The Ohio Department of Transportation Office of Pavement Engineering. Pavement Condition Rating System[S]. The Ohio Department of Transportation Office of Pavement Engineering, 2004.4
7 ASTM Committee. Standard Test Method for Airport Pavement Condition Index Surveys[S], ASTM Committee, 2004.7
8武健民.半刚性基层沥青路面使用性能衰变规律研究[D].博士学位论文.西安:长安大学, 2005
9谢旭飞.基于BP神经网络的路面使用性能预测与影响因素分析[D].硕士学位论文.哈尔滨工业大学, 2004
10潘玉利.路面管理系统基础教程.北京:人民交通出版社,2002
11孙立军,刘喜平.路面使用性能的标准衰变方程.同济大学学报, 1995(5): 512~518
12朱定勤,梁平安,潘玉利.基于CPMS技术的公路预防性养护规划与计划.公路, 2006: No.8
13李明等.路面管理系统发展综述[J].重庆交通学院学报, 2005(6): Vo1.24 No.3: 69~76
14 Lecher R.V and Nelson TL. Washington state’s Pavement Management System Proceeding, 5th Internation Conference on the Structure Design of Aaphalt Pavements, the Nether lands,1982
15陈国靖.国外公路路面管理系统研究动态[J].国外公路, 1998.8
16刘晓明.美国路面管理系统的问题与启示[J].中南公路工程, 2000.3
17 The Highway Development and Management Series. Volume one, (Overview ofHDM-4). The World Bank, 2000
18 Still P. B.A pavement management system for U.K roads. Highways and Transportation, 1900, 37(2): 6~9
19朱罡.高速公路沥青路面路面管理系统分析与开发[D].硕士学位论文.长沙理工大学,2008(04):12~13
20 Wang K. C.P, Zaniewsk J. and Way G. Probabilistic Behavior of Pavements, Journal of Transportation Engineering. American Society of Civil Engineers, Vol.120, No.3, 1994
21余光喜.路面管理系统在公路养护决策中的应用.华东公路: Total No.8(66~68)
22 Yichang Tsai, James S. Lai. A Framework and Strategy for Implementing and IT-based Pavement Management System. TRB2002,2002
23 Stephen T. Munech, George C. White. A Web-Enabled Management System. TRB2004. 2004
24甄侦.基于GIS的路面管理系统框架研究[D].硕士学位论文.西南交通大学, 2007
25河北省交通厅科研课题.高速公路养护管理地理信息系统[R]. 2002.10
26 Adrian Ricardo Archilla,Samer Madanat. Development of a Pavement Rutting Model form Experimental Data. Journal of Transportation Engineering.2000,7(8): 291～299
27席芳柏,熊伟贤.公路路面性能预测模型建立.公路, 1999, 1: 37～43
28唐有君.道路经济与管理.上海:同济大学, 1998
29 Sharaf C.L. and Majizadeh K. Distress Prediction Models for a Net-work-level Pavement Management System, Transportation Research Record 1344, TRB, National Academy of Science Washington D.C.U.S.A,1992
30 J.J. Lu, J. Yang, and M. Gunaratne. Pavement surface performance forecasting by neuron network models. Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of South Florida
31朱建民,马敬坤,李中秋等.国产天然沥青改性沥青路用性能研究[R].课题鉴定资料, 2003
32陈杰.沈大高速公路沥青路面评价与养护对策[D].硕士学位论文.西安公路交通大学,1999.80~84
33杭飞.半刚性沥青路面交通荷载适应能力分析[D].硕士学位论文.哈尔滨工业大学, 2007
34邓聚龙.灰色控制系统(第二版).武汉:华中理工大学出版社, 1997
35张永杰.灰色系统理论在道路货运量、货运周转量预测中的应用.交通运输系统工程与信息, 2003, 3(1): 75~79
36冯利华.灰色预测模型的问题讨论.系统工程理论与实践, 1997(l2): 125~128
37陈世联.灰色系统的几个理论问题.系统工程, 1997, l5(1): 20~23
38 J.D. Lea. Neural network for performance prediction on unsealed roads. Road & Transportation Research. Mar 1999
39 Fw T.F. Shap characteristics of Pavement Performance Curves, Journal of Transportation Engineering, American Society of Civil Engineers, Vol.116, No.5, 1994
40刘思峰,郭天榜等,灰色系统理论及其应用(第二版)[M].北京:科学出版社,1999
41 Liang RH. Application of grey relation analysis to hydroelectric generation scheduling. International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems.1999, 21(5): 357-364
42 Joseph A. Guerre, Williarn E. Robert. The Ontario Executive Support System-Integrating Pavement and bridge Management System, TRB2005, 2005
43交通部CPMS推广工作组.交通部CPMS推广应用报告.交通部公路科学研究所, 1996
44何兆益,邓学钧.路面养护改建项目的优先次序评定.东南大学学报, 1995.11 vol. 25 No.6
45刘伯应,姚祖康.网级路面管理系统中优化方法的研究.中国公路学报,1994 vol.7 No.3
46潘玉利,曾沛霖等,路面大中修养护投资分析模型,中国公路学报, 1992 vol.5 No.3
47刘可.水泥混凝土路面网级优化的动态规划模型.西安公路交通大学学报, 1996 vol.16 No.3
48李志刚,洪锋.动态规划原理在高速公路网级养护决策中的应用.解放军理工大学学报(自然科学版), 2002.2 vol.3 No.1
49胡霞光,王秉刚.应用遗传算法技术优化路面决策.公路交通科技, 2002.4
50李志刚,刘新杰,邓学钧.基于神经网络的高速公路沥青路面决策方法研究.公路交通科技, 2001 vol.18 No.4
51 AASHTO. Guidelines for pavement management systems, America Association of State Highway and Transportation officials, 444 North Capital Street, N.W. Suite 225, Washington, D.C.20001, USA, 1990
52 AASHTO. Pavement Management Guide: Executive Summary Report. America Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, 2001
53 Hass R., Huston W. R., John Z. Modern pavement management. Florida: Krieger Publishing Company, 1994.35~44
54 Hadley W.O., Copeland C. and Rowshan S. Strategic Highway Research Program-Long-Term Pavement Performance Information Management System, Transportation Research Record 1435, TRB, National Academy of Science, Washington D. C , U.S.A.,1994
55 Marcotte B.et al. Alberta’s municipal Pavement management system[J]. North American Conference on Managing Pavement, Vol.l, Toronto, 1987
56 Way G. B. Network Optimization System for Arizona. Proceedings, NAPMC, Toronto, Canada, 1985
57常魁和,高群.公路沥青路面养护新技术[M].北京:人民交通出版社, 2001
58马敬坤.高速公路沥青路面养护对策选择研究[J].公路运输文2004(4):44~46
59殷建军,王秉纲,胡春年等.公路路面养护决策系统的开发与实践.华东公路, 1994(3): 48~52
60周清,周家兵,刘云波.公路路面管理系统(JPMS)的应用.江苏交通科技, 1998(6): 23~25
61殷建军,姚祖康.路面管理系统的开发与实施.中国公路学报, 1997, 10(2): 17~23
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