我国农业生产性能源消费分析
|
摘要
十七届三中全会明确提出到2020年基本形成资源节约型、环境友好型农业生产体系,能源作为农业生产的重要投入品之一,直接关系到这一进程。尽管国内外学者鲜有对农业生产性能源消费的问题进行系统、全面研究,但仍有不少学者对相关问题进行了论述和探讨,他们的成就为本文的研究提供了有益的参考。
为弄清我国农业生产性能源消费现状,探索农业生产过程中能源利用方面存在的问题,并寻求解决这些问题的方法,本文从分析我国农业生产性能源消费现状出发,探求农业生产性能源消费特征,预测农业生产性能源消费的趋势,进而从经济效益和环境效益两个方面评估我国农业生产性能源的利用情况,探索其中可能存在的问题,并从分析农业生产性能源消费影响因素入手,寻求解决这些问题的方法和手段。在分析过程中,弹性分析法被用于分析农业生产性能源的消费特征并进一步预测消费趋势;农业生产性能源利用情况的评估则主要依靠定性分析;含虚拟变量的双对数线性模型被用于分析农业生产性能源消费影响因素;而农业生产性能源消费结构的影响因素分析则依赖于偏最小二乘回归。通过分析,发现我国农业生产性能源的利用效率和消费结构不能适应我国现代农业的发展需求,必须从这两个方面入手进行农业生产性能源利用的经济机制创新和政策措施引导。
煤炭、石油和电力是我国农业生产中主要的能源投入。改革开放以来,煤炭、石油和电力在农业生产中的投入发生了巨大的变化,消费结构也随之变化。尽管农业生产性能源与农业生产总值之间存在着密切联系,但煤炭、石油和电力与农业生产总值之间的消费弹性是有所差异的。这种消费弹性的差异导致了农业生产性能源消费结构在未来十几年中将发生变化。石油将进一步奠定其作为农业生产中主要能源投入的地位,煤炭和电力在农业生产中的地位逐渐下降。我国农业生产性能源消费的这一趋势存在着不合理性,需要调整完善。
现代农业建设要求在农业生产中不仅要注重农业生产的经济效益,也要注重资源的投入和产出效率以及农业生产的环境效益。按照目前的来源消费趋势,我国农业生产性能源消费在经济效益、投入产出效率以及环境效益等方面都随着农业生产发展速度的提高而恶化,因而在发展农业生产的同时,必须适时对农业生产性能源消费及其结构进行调整。这不仅需要调整三大化石能源的结构比例,而且需要调整化石能源与非化石能源之间的结构比例。
我国农业能源消费结构方面存在着亟需解决的问题,而解决这一问题需要从其影响因素入手。通过综合使用调研数据和统计数据,利用线性回归和偏最小二乘回归等分析方法,分析了农业生产性能源消费及其结构的影响因素。农业收入、农地经营规模和农民素质是影响能源消费及其结构的主要因素。只要对这些影响因素朝着有利的方向引导,就能够促进农业生产性能源消费问题的顺利解决。
Third Plenary Session of the 17th Communist Party of China Central Committee has proposed that by 2020, resource-saving and environment-friendly agricultural production systems would be constructed. As one of essential inputs in agriculture, energy is directly related to the process. Although few scholars till now have systematically and comprehensively studied on energy consumption issues of agriculture, but there are still many scholars who concerned on the related issues and whose achievement of their research offered useful reference for the topic.
To clarify the status of energy consumption in agricultural production, explore the problem of energy use during agricultural production process, and to seek ways to address these issues, the dissertation analyzed the current situation of energy consumption, explored the characteristics of energy use in agricultural production and forecast the update trend of energy consumption in agricultural production, thus assessed the energy use from both economic and environmental benefits aspects, explored the problems which may exist, and found solutions to these problems and means based on factors affecting energy consumption and its structure. During the analysis, elastic analysis was used to analyze the characteristics of energy consumption in agricultural production and further predict consumption trends; the assessment of energy use of agricultural production mainly use qualitative analysis; the double log-linear model with dummy variables was used to analysis on factors of energy consumption in agricultural production; and factors of energy consumption structure in agricultural production used the method of partial least squares regression. Through analysis, we found the energy use efficiency of agricultural production and consumption structure of agricultural production cannot meet the development needs, in which economic innovation mechanism and policy should be implemented.
Coal, oil and electricity are the major energy inputs of agricultural production. Since the reform and opening-up, coal, oil and electricity which were input in agricultural production has undergone tremendous changes. Energy consumption structure of agricultural production has changed also. Although the agricultural production and its energy use exist close ties, the consumption elasticity exist between coal, oil and electricity and the gross agricultural production is somewhat different. This difference has led to the change of energy consumption structure of agricultural production in the next decade. Oil will be further established itself as a major energy input in agricultural production status, the proportion of coal and electricity in agricultural production will be declined. The unreasonable trend of Energy consumption of agricultural production needs adjustment and improvement, which not only includes the adjustment of the mix of the three major fossil energy sources, but also includes the adjustment of ratio of the non-fossil energy sources and fossil energy sources.
Modern agriculture requires not only focus on economic efficiency of agricultural production, but also pays attention to the input and output efficiency and environmental benefits of agricultural production. China's energy consumption of agricultural production will deteriorate in the economic, input-output efficiency and environmental benefits and other aspects with rapid growth of agricultural production, and can conclude that the energy consumption and its structure of agricultural production must be timely adjusted at the same time in the development of agricultural production,.
There are problems need to figure in energy consumption structure of China's agriculture, to solve this problem requires to clarify its influence factors. Through the integrated use of research data and statistics, linear regression and partial least squares regression analysis, the dissertation analyzed the influence factors of energy consumption and its structure in agricultural production. Agricultural income, agriculture production scale and qualification of peasants are affecting the structure of energy consumption. As long as these factors develop towards a favorable direction, issues related to energy use in agricultural production can be resolved smoothly.
为弄清我国农业生产性能源消费现状,探索农业生产过程中能源利用方面存在的问题,并寻求解决这些问题的方法,本文从分析我国农业生产性能源消费现状出发,探求农业生产性能源消费特征,预测农业生产性能源消费的趋势,进而从经济效益和环境效益两个方面评估我国农业生产性能源的利用情况,探索其中可能存在的问题,并从分析农业生产性能源消费影响因素入手,寻求解决这些问题的方法和手段。在分析过程中,弹性分析法被用于分析农业生产性能源的消费特征并进一步预测消费趋势;农业生产性能源利用情况的评估则主要依靠定性分析;含虚拟变量的双对数线性模型被用于分析农业生产性能源消费影响因素;而农业生产性能源消费结构的影响因素分析则依赖于偏最小二乘回归。通过分析,发现我国农业生产性能源的利用效率和消费结构不能适应我国现代农业的发展需求,必须从这两个方面入手进行农业生产性能源利用的经济机制创新和政策措施引导。
煤炭、石油和电力是我国农业生产中主要的能源投入。改革开放以来,煤炭、石油和电力在农业生产中的投入发生了巨大的变化,消费结构也随之变化。尽管农业生产性能源与农业生产总值之间存在着密切联系,但煤炭、石油和电力与农业生产总值之间的消费弹性是有所差异的。这种消费弹性的差异导致了农业生产性能源消费结构在未来十几年中将发生变化。石油将进一步奠定其作为农业生产中主要能源投入的地位,煤炭和电力在农业生产中的地位逐渐下降。我国农业生产性能源消费的这一趋势存在着不合理性,需要调整完善。
现代农业建设要求在农业生产中不仅要注重农业生产的经济效益,也要注重资源的投入和产出效率以及农业生产的环境效益。按照目前的来源消费趋势,我国农业生产性能源消费在经济效益、投入产出效率以及环境效益等方面都随着农业生产发展速度的提高而恶化,因而在发展农业生产的同时,必须适时对农业生产性能源消费及其结构进行调整。这不仅需要调整三大化石能源的结构比例,而且需要调整化石能源与非化石能源之间的结构比例。
我国农业能源消费结构方面存在着亟需解决的问题,而解决这一问题需要从其影响因素入手。通过综合使用调研数据和统计数据,利用线性回归和偏最小二乘回归等分析方法,分析了农业生产性能源消费及其结构的影响因素。农业收入、农地经营规模和农民素质是影响能源消费及其结构的主要因素。只要对这些影响因素朝着有利的方向引导,就能够促进农业生产性能源消费问题的顺利解决。
Third Plenary Session of the 17th Communist Party of China Central Committee has proposed that by 2020, resource-saving and environment-friendly agricultural production systems would be constructed. As one of essential inputs in agriculture, energy is directly related to the process. Although few scholars till now have systematically and comprehensively studied on energy consumption issues of agriculture, but there are still many scholars who concerned on the related issues and whose achievement of their research offered useful reference for the topic.
To clarify the status of energy consumption in agricultural production, explore the problem of energy use during agricultural production process, and to seek ways to address these issues, the dissertation analyzed the current situation of energy consumption, explored the characteristics of energy use in agricultural production and forecast the update trend of energy consumption in agricultural production, thus assessed the energy use from both economic and environmental benefits aspects, explored the problems which may exist, and found solutions to these problems and means based on factors affecting energy consumption and its structure. During the analysis, elastic analysis was used to analyze the characteristics of energy consumption in agricultural production and further predict consumption trends; the assessment of energy use of agricultural production mainly use qualitative analysis; the double log-linear model with dummy variables was used to analysis on factors of energy consumption in agricultural production; and factors of energy consumption structure in agricultural production used the method of partial least squares regression. Through analysis, we found the energy use efficiency of agricultural production and consumption structure of agricultural production cannot meet the development needs, in which economic innovation mechanism and policy should be implemented.
Coal, oil and electricity are the major energy inputs of agricultural production. Since the reform and opening-up, coal, oil and electricity which were input in agricultural production has undergone tremendous changes. Energy consumption structure of agricultural production has changed also. Although the agricultural production and its energy use exist close ties, the consumption elasticity exist between coal, oil and electricity and the gross agricultural production is somewhat different. This difference has led to the change of energy consumption structure of agricultural production in the next decade. Oil will be further established itself as a major energy input in agricultural production status, the proportion of coal and electricity in agricultural production will be declined. The unreasonable trend of Energy consumption of agricultural production needs adjustment and improvement, which not only includes the adjustment of the mix of the three major fossil energy sources, but also includes the adjustment of ratio of the non-fossil energy sources and fossil energy sources.
Modern agriculture requires not only focus on economic efficiency of agricultural production, but also pays attention to the input and output efficiency and environmental benefits of agricultural production. China's energy consumption of agricultural production will deteriorate in the economic, input-output efficiency and environmental benefits and other aspects with rapid growth of agricultural production, and can conclude that the energy consumption and its structure of agricultural production must be timely adjusted at the same time in the development of agricultural production,.
There are problems need to figure in energy consumption structure of China's agriculture, to solve this problem requires to clarify its influence factors. Through the integrated use of research data and statistics, linear regression and partial least squares regression analysis, the dissertation analyzed the influence factors of energy consumption and its structure in agricultural production. Agricultural income, agriculture production scale and qualification of peasants are affecting the structure of energy consumption. As long as these factors develop towards a favorable direction, issues related to energy use in agricultural production can be resolved smoothly.
引文
1.董梅生.中国农业投入和产出的关系——基于偏最小二乘回归法的分析[J].技术经济. 2009, 28(1): 37-41.
2.杜栋,刘宇婷.应用神经网络技术研究农业生产函数[J].农业系统科学与综合研究. 1998, 14(2): 97-99.
3.樊守义.一个多因素农业生产函数模型的数学模型及优化[J]. 1991, 12(4).
4.高立金.我国农业生产投入要素的效率分析[J].中国农村观察. 1998(2): 6-10.
5.高新才,仵雁鹏.中国能源消费系统预测模型的构建[J].统计与决策. 2009(5): 28-29.
6.管卫华,顾朝林,林振山.中国能源消费结构的变动规律研究[J].自然资源学报. 2006(03): 401-407.
7.韩君.能源需求分析方法述析[J].经济研究导刊. 2008(18): 280-281.
8.何多奇,黄万来.重庆统筹城乡要重点改变农业传统生产方式[Z]. 2009: 2010.
9.何其祥.投入产出分析[M].北京:科学出版社, 1999.
10.胡丹王会强.能源需求组合预测模型的构建及应用[J].统计与决策. 2008(2): 64-66.
11.李金凯.中国农业能源消费与国民收入的实证分析[J].经济纵横. 2008(9): 70-72.
12.李玲,刘德智.影响农户生产投入因素的实证分析[J].经济师. 2008(3): 225-226.
13.李相银,沈达尊.农业生产函数研究与应用的几个问题[J].农业技术经济. 1995(1): 19-22.
14.林毅夫.再论制度、技术和中国农业发展[M].北京:北京大学出版社, 2003.
15.林玉贞.我国农业投入与产出计量经济模型[J].现代经济信息. 2008(9): 38-40.
16.刘吉双.国外农业降低化石能源消费模式比较[J].行政与法. 2005(12): 60-61.
17.刘天福.技术经济手册(农业卷)[G].沈阳:辽宁人民出版社, 1986.
18.罗发友,汤小平.农业生产力发展与农户收入增长的协整分析[J].统计与决策. 2004(8): 42-43.
19.马超群,储慧斌,李科,等.中国能源消费与经济增长的协整与误差校正模型研究[J].系统工程. 2004, 22(10): 47-50.
20.屈艳芳,郭敏.农户投资行为实证研究[J].上海经济研究. 2002(4): 17-27.
21.桑东莉.能源问题对中国农业可持续发展的影响及法律应对[J].湖南农业大学学报. 2008(3): 86-90.
22.时学成,张举钢.影响农户农业生产投入的实证分析与对策[J].石家庄经济学院学报. 2008, 31(2): 61-64.
23.时学成.影响农户农业生产投入的因素及对策[J].经济论坛. 2007(23): 130-132.
24.唐华仓.农业生产中的能源投入结构优化分析[J].中州学刊. 2007(4): 52-54.
25.王惠文.偏最小二乘回归方法及其应用[M].北京:国防工业出版社, 1999.
26.王丽红.石油价格变动对我国农业部门影响的实证分析[J].农业技术经济. 2009(2):105-112.
27.吴拥政.农村居民消费结构变动和影响因素分析——基于新兴古典经济学与偏最小二乘回归的经验证据[J].经济经纬. 2008(6): 5-8.
28.姚政,郝传波.黑龙江经济增长与能源消费结构变动[J].能源与环境. 2007(4): 18-19, 22.
29.叶依广.试论中国农业现代化模式的选择[J].农业现代化研究. 1990(2): 1-4.
30.张风波.农业生产数分析[J].生产力研究. 1987(3): 25-27.
31.张丽娜.重庆市农村能源供需分析及其政策研究[D].重庆:重庆大学, 2006.
32.赵长城,王洲洋.基于主成分与BP神经网络的中国能源安全预警研究[J].经济研究导刊. 2009(11): 241-242.
33.朱辉,张世英.协整系统的预测——中国国民经济与消费的实证研究[J].预测. 1997(6): 32-36, 38.
34. Baruah D C, Bora G C. Energy demand forcast for mechanized agriculture in rural India[J]. Energy Policy. 2008(36): 2628-2636.
35. Bentzen J, Engsted T. Short- and long-run elasticities in energy demand : A cointegration approach [J]. Energy Economics. 1993, 15(1): 9-16.
36. Bentzen J. An empirical analysis of gasoline demand in Denmark using cointegration techniques [J]. Energy Economics. 1994, 16(2): 139-143.
37. Engle R F, Granger C W J. Co-integration and error-correction: Representation, estimation and testing[J]. The Econometric Society. 1987, 55(2): 251-276.
38. Funke M. Assessing the forecasting accuracy of monthly vector autoregressive models : The case of five OECD countries [J]. International Journal of Forecasting. 1990, 6(3): 363-378.
39. Gambling T E, Nour A. A Note on Input-Output Analysis: Its Uses in Macro-Economics and Micro-Economics.[J]. Accounting Review. 1970, 45(1): 98-103.
40. Geem Z W, Roper W E. Energy demand estimation of South Korea using artificial neural network[J]. Energy Policy. 2009, 37(10): 4049-4054.
41. Goktolga O K, Gokalp Z. Input-output analysis of energy use in agriculture[J]. Energy conversation and Mangement. 2005(46): 2005.
42. Horrigan L, Lawrence R S, Wallker P. How Sustainable Agriculture Can Address the Environmental and human Heath Harms of Industrial Agiculture[J]. Environmental Heath Perspectives. 2002, 110(5): 445.
43. Hunan J. Mikkola J A. Indirect energy input of agricultural machinery in bioenergy production[J]. Renewable Energy. 2010, 35(1): 23-28.
44. Lee G K. Changes In the Structure of the Washington state economy, 1963-72:An input-output Analysis[J]. Western Journal of Agricultural Economics. 1980, 5(1): 63-71.
45. Murat Y S, Ceylan H. Use of artificial neural networks for transport energy demandmodeling[J]. Energy Policy. 2006, 34(17): 3165-3172.
46. Naylor R L. Energy and Resource Constrants on Intensive Agricultural Production.[J]. Annual Review of Energy & the Environment. 1996, 21(1): 99-124.
47. Ozkan B, Akcaoz H, Fert C. Energy input-output analysis in Turkish agriculture[J]. 2004. 2004(29): 39-51.
48. Park S. Decomposition of industrial energy consumption : An alternative method[J]. Energy Economics. 1992, 14(4): 265-270.
49. Re M, Pb B. Input-Output analysis: fondation and extension[M]. NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1985.
50. Reddy B S, Ray B K. Decomposition of energy consumption and energy intensity in Indian manufacturing industries[J]. Energy for Sustainable Development. 2010, 14(1): 35-47.
51. Uhlin H. Energy productivity of technological agriculture-lessons from the transition of Swedish agriculture[J]. 1999: 63-81.
52. Weiner D, Munshow B. Energy for sustainable agricultural development in Zimbabwe.[J]. Growth & Change. 1992, 23(3): 335-363.
2.杜栋,刘宇婷.应用神经网络技术研究农业生产函数[J].农业系统科学与综合研究. 1998, 14(2): 97-99.
3.樊守义.一个多因素农业生产函数模型的数学模型及优化[J]. 1991, 12(4).
4.高立金.我国农业生产投入要素的效率分析[J].中国农村观察. 1998(2): 6-10.
5.高新才,仵雁鹏.中国能源消费系统预测模型的构建[J].统计与决策. 2009(5): 28-29.
6.管卫华,顾朝林,林振山.中国能源消费结构的变动规律研究[J].自然资源学报. 2006(03): 401-407.
7.韩君.能源需求分析方法述析[J].经济研究导刊. 2008(18): 280-281.
8.何多奇,黄万来.重庆统筹城乡要重点改变农业传统生产方式[Z]. 2009: 2010.
9.何其祥.投入产出分析[M].北京:科学出版社, 1999.
10.胡丹王会强.能源需求组合预测模型的构建及应用[J].统计与决策. 2008(2): 64-66.
11.李金凯.中国农业能源消费与国民收入的实证分析[J].经济纵横. 2008(9): 70-72.
12.李玲,刘德智.影响农户生产投入因素的实证分析[J].经济师. 2008(3): 225-226.
13.李相银,沈达尊.农业生产函数研究与应用的几个问题[J].农业技术经济. 1995(1): 19-22.
14.林毅夫.再论制度、技术和中国农业发展[M].北京:北京大学出版社, 2003.
15.林玉贞.我国农业投入与产出计量经济模型[J].现代经济信息. 2008(9): 38-40.
16.刘吉双.国外农业降低化石能源消费模式比较[J].行政与法. 2005(12): 60-61.
17.刘天福.技术经济手册(农业卷)[G].沈阳:辽宁人民出版社, 1986.
18.罗发友,汤小平.农业生产力发展与农户收入增长的协整分析[J].统计与决策. 2004(8): 42-43.
19.马超群,储慧斌,李科,等.中国能源消费与经济增长的协整与误差校正模型研究[J].系统工程. 2004, 22(10): 47-50.
20.屈艳芳,郭敏.农户投资行为实证研究[J].上海经济研究. 2002(4): 17-27.
21.桑东莉.能源问题对中国农业可持续发展的影响及法律应对[J].湖南农业大学学报. 2008(3): 86-90.
22.时学成,张举钢.影响农户农业生产投入的实证分析与对策[J].石家庄经济学院学报. 2008, 31(2): 61-64.
23.时学成.影响农户农业生产投入的因素及对策[J].经济论坛. 2007(23): 130-132.
24.唐华仓.农业生产中的能源投入结构优化分析[J].中州学刊. 2007(4): 52-54.
25.王惠文.偏最小二乘回归方法及其应用[M].北京:国防工业出版社, 1999.
26.王丽红.石油价格变动对我国农业部门影响的实证分析[J].农业技术经济. 2009(2):105-112.
27.吴拥政.农村居民消费结构变动和影响因素分析——基于新兴古典经济学与偏最小二乘回归的经验证据[J].经济经纬. 2008(6): 5-8.
28.姚政,郝传波.黑龙江经济增长与能源消费结构变动[J].能源与环境. 2007(4): 18-19, 22.
29.叶依广.试论中国农业现代化模式的选择[J].农业现代化研究. 1990(2): 1-4.
30.张风波.农业生产数分析[J].生产力研究. 1987(3): 25-27.
31.张丽娜.重庆市农村能源供需分析及其政策研究[D].重庆:重庆大学, 2006.
32.赵长城,王洲洋.基于主成分与BP神经网络的中国能源安全预警研究[J].经济研究导刊. 2009(11): 241-242.
33.朱辉,张世英.协整系统的预测——中国国民经济与消费的实证研究[J].预测. 1997(6): 32-36, 38.
34. Baruah D C, Bora G C. Energy demand forcast for mechanized agriculture in rural India[J]. Energy Policy. 2008(36): 2628-2636.
35. Bentzen J, Engsted T. Short- and long-run elasticities in energy demand : A cointegration approach [J]. Energy Economics. 1993, 15(1): 9-16.
36. Bentzen J. An empirical analysis of gasoline demand in Denmark using cointegration techniques [J]. Energy Economics. 1994, 16(2): 139-143.
37. Engle R F, Granger C W J. Co-integration and error-correction: Representation, estimation and testing[J]. The Econometric Society. 1987, 55(2): 251-276.
38. Funke M. Assessing the forecasting accuracy of monthly vector autoregressive models : The case of five OECD countries [J]. International Journal of Forecasting. 1990, 6(3): 363-378.
39. Gambling T E, Nour A. A Note on Input-Output Analysis: Its Uses in Macro-Economics and Micro-Economics.[J]. Accounting Review. 1970, 45(1): 98-103.
40. Geem Z W, Roper W E. Energy demand estimation of South Korea using artificial neural network[J]. Energy Policy. 2009, 37(10): 4049-4054.
41. Goktolga O K, Gokalp Z. Input-output analysis of energy use in agriculture[J]. Energy conversation and Mangement. 2005(46): 2005.
42. Horrigan L, Lawrence R S, Wallker P. How Sustainable Agriculture Can Address the Environmental and human Heath Harms of Industrial Agiculture[J]. Environmental Heath Perspectives. 2002, 110(5): 445.
43. Hunan J. Mikkola J A. Indirect energy input of agricultural machinery in bioenergy production[J]. Renewable Energy. 2010, 35(1): 23-28.
44. Lee G K. Changes In the Structure of the Washington state economy, 1963-72:An input-output Analysis[J]. Western Journal of Agricultural Economics. 1980, 5(1): 63-71.
45. Murat Y S, Ceylan H. Use of artificial neural networks for transport energy demandmodeling[J]. Energy Policy. 2006, 34(17): 3165-3172.
46. Naylor R L. Energy and Resource Constrants on Intensive Agricultural Production.[J]. Annual Review of Energy & the Environment. 1996, 21(1): 99-124.
47. Ozkan B, Akcaoz H, Fert C. Energy input-output analysis in Turkish agriculture[J]. 2004. 2004(29): 39-51.
48. Park S. Decomposition of industrial energy consumption : An alternative method[J]. Energy Economics. 1992, 14(4): 265-270.
49. Re M, Pb B. Input-Output analysis: fondation and extension[M]. NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1985.
50. Reddy B S, Ray B K. Decomposition of energy consumption and energy intensity in Indian manufacturing industries[J]. Energy for Sustainable Development. 2010, 14(1): 35-47.
51. Uhlin H. Energy productivity of technological agriculture-lessons from the transition of Swedish agriculture[J]. 1999: 63-81.
52. Weiner D, Munshow B. Energy for sustainable agricultural development in Zimbabwe.[J]. Growth & Change. 1992, 23(3): 335-363.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |