基于GIS的城市震害单元化应急医疗救助建模与仿真研究
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摘要
近年来,破坏性地震灾害频发,给人类带来了巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失。地震灾害发生后,最紧迫的一项任务就是救人,从倒塌房屋废墟中营救被压埋者或从危房中解救出被围困者并将其及时的送往医院是震后救人的重中之重。同时,城市震害应急救助实践表明,灾难性地震发生后约6小时内是危重伤员应急救助的黄金时间。因此,如何在最短的时间内,救助更多的伤员,并通过相关的技术对应急医疗救助过程进行建模与仿真成为目前震后应急医疗救助研究的重要内容。
本文根据城市震害应急医疗救助的特点,分析了相关领域的研究难点和重点。进而,在相关研究基础上,立足救人这一地震发生后最为重要的任务,对城市震害应急医疗救助过程进行了进一步的研究,具体内容包括:
(1)针对城市震害的特点,基于城市震害应急管理单元的概念,对应急医疗救助存在的问题进行了研究。
(2)从应急医疗队、应急医疗设备和应急医疗常用物资等应急医疗资源需求类别和从本地医院、伤员集中分类站和灾区诊所等资源载体方面出发,引入伤员集中运输分类站系数和分类站覆盖区域两个概念,建立了城市震害单元化应急医疗资源需求模型,并运用GIS相关技术验证和实现了该模型。该模型可用于辅助震后局部区域应急资源的需求分析。
(3)从外界救援力量到达灾区的数量、道路的抢修系数、抢修顺序和抢修时间等方面出发,建立了城市震后道路连通性动态评估模型,并运用GIS相关技术验证和实现了该模型。该模型可为应急指挥部提供震后道路连通性的动态变化情况,为救援力量快速救治伤员、运输伤员和物资等提供合理的动态最优路径。
(4)结合城市震害相关预测模型,与本文建立的两个应急医疗救助模型,以ArcGIS+VS2005为开发平台,C#为开发语言,设计和开发了基于GIS的初步的城市震害应急医疗救助仿真系统。
The frenquency of earthquake has been gradually increasing in recent years, causing enormous casualties and property damage. After a catastrophic earthquake, one of the most important missions is medical aid. Saving or rescuing from the ruins of collapsed or dangerous houses and taking casualities to hospital in time are the most important tasks after the earthquake. At the same time, emergency rescue practice of urban seismic disaster shows that the prime time of the emergency medical aid for the serious wounded is within 6 hours after a catastrophic earthquake. Therefore, how to save more wounded in the shortest time with limited medical resources is a big problem. Also, using technology to model and simulate the process of the emergency medical aid is the key issue in the current research on the emergency medical aid.
In this thesis, according to the characteristics of the urban emergency medical aid, the difficulties and focus of researches on emergency medical aid are generated. Given that saving is the most important task after the earthquake, the process of urban seismic disaster for emergency medical aid is further studied. Specifically, the following questions are discussed.
(1) The problems of emergency medical aid in emergency management are studied on the basis of the characteristics of urban seismic disaster and the concept of emergency management unit for urban seismic disaster.
(2) A theoretical model of medical resources demand for urban seismic disaster response is proposed according to the casualty-collection point coefficient and coverage area. The model gives full consideration to emergency medical team, equipment, supplies, local hospital, casualty-collection point, clinics in disaster area and so on. What’s more, a case of medical resources demand model based on GIS is implemented and verified. The results show the model could be useful in practice and demand analysis of post-earthquake emergency medical resources for local area.
(3) Dynamic assessment model of connectivity analysis of road system for urban post-earthquake is proposed, according to the number of the rescue forces arrived in stricken region, the repair coefficient, order and time of the road system. Meanwhile, a case of the model based on GIS is implemented and verified. According to the model, the emergency decision-makers can get the dynamic states of road system after the earthquake. Also, the optimal routes can be supplied dynamically for the rescuers to arrive at the area and to transfer the wounded and resources.
(4) Combining prediction models of urban seismic disaster with the two proposed models of emergency medical aid, the simulated emergency medical aid system of urban seismic disaster based on GIS is developed and designed with the ArcGIS and VS2005 as developed platform and C # as developed language.
本文根据城市震害应急医疗救助的特点,分析了相关领域的研究难点和重点。进而,在相关研究基础上,立足救人这一地震发生后最为重要的任务,对城市震害应急医疗救助过程进行了进一步的研究,具体内容包括:
(1)针对城市震害的特点,基于城市震害应急管理单元的概念,对应急医疗救助存在的问题进行了研究。
(2)从应急医疗队、应急医疗设备和应急医疗常用物资等应急医疗资源需求类别和从本地医院、伤员集中分类站和灾区诊所等资源载体方面出发,引入伤员集中运输分类站系数和分类站覆盖区域两个概念,建立了城市震害单元化应急医疗资源需求模型,并运用GIS相关技术验证和实现了该模型。该模型可用于辅助震后局部区域应急资源的需求分析。
(3)从外界救援力量到达灾区的数量、道路的抢修系数、抢修顺序和抢修时间等方面出发,建立了城市震后道路连通性动态评估模型,并运用GIS相关技术验证和实现了该模型。该模型可为应急指挥部提供震后道路连通性的动态变化情况,为救援力量快速救治伤员、运输伤员和物资等提供合理的动态最优路径。
(4)结合城市震害相关预测模型,与本文建立的两个应急医疗救助模型,以ArcGIS+VS2005为开发平台,C#为开发语言,设计和开发了基于GIS的初步的城市震害应急医疗救助仿真系统。
The frenquency of earthquake has been gradually increasing in recent years, causing enormous casualties and property damage. After a catastrophic earthquake, one of the most important missions is medical aid. Saving or rescuing from the ruins of collapsed or dangerous houses and taking casualities to hospital in time are the most important tasks after the earthquake. At the same time, emergency rescue practice of urban seismic disaster shows that the prime time of the emergency medical aid for the serious wounded is within 6 hours after a catastrophic earthquake. Therefore, how to save more wounded in the shortest time with limited medical resources is a big problem. Also, using technology to model and simulate the process of the emergency medical aid is the key issue in the current research on the emergency medical aid.
In this thesis, according to the characteristics of the urban emergency medical aid, the difficulties and focus of researches on emergency medical aid are generated. Given that saving is the most important task after the earthquake, the process of urban seismic disaster for emergency medical aid is further studied. Specifically, the following questions are discussed.
(1) The problems of emergency medical aid in emergency management are studied on the basis of the characteristics of urban seismic disaster and the concept of emergency management unit for urban seismic disaster.
(2) A theoretical model of medical resources demand for urban seismic disaster response is proposed according to the casualty-collection point coefficient and coverage area. The model gives full consideration to emergency medical team, equipment, supplies, local hospital, casualty-collection point, clinics in disaster area and so on. What’s more, a case of medical resources demand model based on GIS is implemented and verified. The results show the model could be useful in practice and demand analysis of post-earthquake emergency medical resources for local area.
(3) Dynamic assessment model of connectivity analysis of road system for urban post-earthquake is proposed, according to the number of the rescue forces arrived in stricken region, the repair coefficient, order and time of the road system. Meanwhile, a case of the model based on GIS is implemented and verified. According to the model, the emergency decision-makers can get the dynamic states of road system after the earthquake. Also, the optimal routes can be supplied dynamically for the rescuers to arrive at the area and to transfer the wounded and resources.
(4) Combining prediction models of urban seismic disaster with the two proposed models of emergency medical aid, the simulated emergency medical aid system of urban seismic disaster based on GIS is developed and designed with the ArcGIS and VS2005 as developed platform and C # as developed language.
引文
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[2]百度百科.智利康塞普西翁地震[EB/OL] [2010-2-27] http://baike.baidu.com/view/679540.htm?fr=ala0_1_1.
[3]新华网.青海玉树地震灾情快报[EB/OL][2010-4-28] http://www.news.cn/society/qhysdz/zqkb.htm.
[4]新华网.四川汶川地震伤亡情况[EB/OL] [2008-7-29] http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2008-07/29/content_8840652.htm
[5]陈颙.城市地震灾害及其应对[A].灾害管理与平安社区建设[M].北京:群言出版社, 2004.
[6]陈秉钊.当代城市规划导论[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社, 2003:3-5.
[7]姚晖,兰平.地震灾害的应急医疗救援[J].中山大学学报, 2008,29(6)642-645.
[8]靳曰森等.城市震后医疗应急救援体系分析[J].山西:山西建筑, 2008,34(29):531-533.
[9]凌小凤,韦波.我国大中城市应急医疗救援体系现状及其建设的探索思考[J].北京:中国急救复苏与灾害医学杂志, 2006,1(6):243-245.
[10]安雯.瑞典应急医疗救援体系对我国的启示[J].国际频道, 2008,86:52-53.
[11]徐玢.自然灾害与医疗应急反应[J].北京:中国急救复苏与灾害医学杂志, 2006,1(4-5):181,281,381.
[12]杨富平.城市震害单元化应急管理与救助仿真研究[D].北京:北京师范大学, 2007.5.
[13] Hiroshi Tanaka, A. Iwai, etal. Overview of Evacuation and Transport of Patients Following the 1996 Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake[J]. Journal of Emergency Medicine, 1998,16(3):439-444.
[14] Carl H.S., M.D., Kristi L.K.,etal. A Medical Disaster Response to Reduce Immediate Mortality after an Earthquake[J]. The New England Journal of Medicine, 1996,2(15):438-444.
[15] A. Kowald. Theoretical Gompertzian Implications on Life SpanVariability among Genotypically Identical Animals[J]. Mech. Ageing Dev., 1999.
[16] Jomon A.P., Santhosh K.G. Transient Modeling in Simulation of Hospital Operations for Emergency Response[J]. Prehospital and Disaster Medicine, 2006,21(4):223-236.
[17] Naoki Ohboshi, Hisayuki Masui etal. A Study of Medical Emergency Workflow[J]. Computer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine, 1998,55:177-190.
[18]倪永军,吕高峰,黄世敏等.基于GIS的城市道路交通系统震害预测与连通性分析[J].四川大学报, 2007,39:163-167.
[19]陈艳艳.考虑供需随机性的道路交通系统震害引发损失期望评估[J].世界地震程, 2003,19(1):25-30.
[20]郭红梅,黄丁发,陈维锋等.城市地震现场搜救指挥辅助决策系统的设计与开发[J].云南:地震研究, 2008,31(1):83-88.
[21]谢庆生,吴华章,潘丹等.基于ArcGIS的安徽省地震应急快速反应系统[J].北京:防灾科技学院学报, 2007,9(2):17-20,62.
[22]李雪莉,栾港.基于GIS/GPS/GSMSS的灾害应急医疗救援系统[J].中外医疗, 2008,23(2):155.
[23]方世萍,张芝霞.城市地震应急救援措施探讨[J].灾害学, 2004,19(1):31-34.
[24]中国赴日地震考察团.日本阪神大地震考察[M].地震出版社, 1995.
[25]肖松雷.救援力量现场搜救行动指挥和部署模型初步研究[D].北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所, 2006.
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