城乡统筹发展背景下重庆市生态环境系统SD仿真研究
|
摘要
系统动力学(SD)隶属于系统科学的范畴,它把研究对象看成一个系统,从系统的内部结构出发研究系统的功能,并集结自然科学和社会科学准则对研究对象进行定性与定量相结合的全面分析。生态环境系统是一个多因子、高阶次、非线性的复杂大系统,涉及的影响因素很多,传统研究方法不再适用于这种复杂系统的研究。为此,本文选用系统动力学原理和方法研究城乡统筹发展背景下重庆市生态环境问题,对其行为特征的演变进行仿真模拟、预测预报和政策试验。
本文研究主要有四个部分,第一部分是重庆市城乡统筹发展背景下生态环境现状评价研究,利用时序主成分分析法对重庆市1998-2008年11年间生态环境系统行为演变进行实证评价研究。结果显示,城乡背景下重庆市生态环境整体水平在1998-2008年11年间呈持续上升趋势,在其间有变化速率的起伏改变。系统协调度在这期间呈“双峰态”变化：1998-2001年间以低速率稳步上升,2001年达第一个演变峰值0.5238,2002有一个突然的急剧下降(评价指数-1.3478，年际变化幅度达到-1.8715)并逐渐演变达到谷底,2004年开始以较快速率(平均年际增幅0.7259)回升,到2006年演变到第二个峰值0.7749，此后又开始变缓下降。重庆市城乡生态环境子系统间的关系可以用方程式F=0.7456F1-0.7311F2来表征。
第二部分是重庆市生态环境系统动力学建模研究,应用系统动力学原理和方法分析了重庆市城乡统筹发展背景下的生态环境系统,认为系统包括三个主要的状态变量：污染、人口和资金,三个状态变量通过另外一些常量和辅助变量相互作用,从而构成不同反馈极性的循环回路。在此基础上,本文建立了重庆市城乡统筹发展背景下生态环境系统动力学模型,然后估计了模型的相关参数并确定了模型的动力学方程式,最后检验发现模型能很好地通过结构检验和历史行为检验,表明此模型能很好地刻画实际系统。
第三部分是重庆市生态环境系统动力学模型的模拟仿真研究,结果表明：(1)未来近10年内,全市总人口呈逐步增长态势,到2020年将增加到3860.14万人,城镇人口将增至2478.21万人,农业人口逐步减少至1312.83万人,城镇化率达到0.642，工业产值有大幅度增加,城镇化进程较快。在城乡统筹发展背景下,重庆市生态环境总污染中工业三废污染所占比重大于农业面源污染,城镇化给城镇生态环境所带来的环境负荷较大,而给乡村生态环境带来的环境负荷则相对较小。(2)从总量看,重庆市工业三废污染属废水型污染,而从污染增加的速率看,则属废气型污染。综合考虑,全市目前的工业三废污染格局是：废水污染>废气污染>固体废弃物污染。其中,工业固体废弃物污染属“粉煤灰”污染型,废气污染属“二氧化硫-烟尘”污染型。(3)从污染总量看,重庆市农业面源污染属“养殖-农化”型污染,其中种植污染比养殖污染大,在种植污染中农药化肥污染最大,其次是秸秆污染,地膜污染最小。但从污染增加速率看,则属于以种植污染为主的“农化-养殖”型污染,农化污染增加是最快的,其次是养殖和秸秆污染,地膜污染相对最小。
第四部分是重庆市生态环境系统动力学模型的政策试验研究,以2010年为政策试验时间起点对模型进行模拟,最终结果发现：(1)统筹重庆市城乡发展,必须严格控制好人口和资本两个因素,以实现城乡生态环境的协调发展。对于人口一要控制好总量规模达到3831.57万人左右,二要逐步提高城镇化率到0.698左右；对于资本要素,要特别注意控制好农业投资比例以免间接引起农业面源污染加重。(2)控制城镇工业三废污染要注意调整产业结构,从源头上控制污染的发生,同时提高污染处理率、资源重复利用率并降低生产能耗；优化模拟认为系统中生活排污也应引起足够重视,并应在基本方案的基础上减少40%左右。(3)控制农业面源污染要着重控制养殖污染物的排放和农药化肥的施用,并加大对面源污染物的有效处理和利用,优化方案建议逐步提高10%-15%。
System Dynamics (SD) falls into the category of Systems Science. It regardes the research object as a system, and analysises the system's functions through its internal structure, it combines natural science and social science, adopts qualitative and quantitative to analyse the system comprehensively. Eco-environmental system is a multi-factor, high-order, non-linear complex system, involves many complicated factors. So, traditional research methods are no longer applicable to such complex systems.Therefore we chose System Dynamics to study the problem of eco-environment system in Chongqing in the background of conducting urban and rural development, hoping to simulate and forecast the evolution of its begaviors and carry out policy experimentation on it.
This paper is mainly divided into four parts, the first is the evaluation research on present urban eco-environment in Chongqing city in the background of conducting urban and rural eco-environment development. And then, the behaviors of eco-environment system during 1998 to 2008 in Chongqing city was empirically evaluated by using Times Series Analysis & PCA method. The results showed that the overall level of eco-environment quality in Chongqing city in the context of urban and rural development has continued to rise, and the changing rates changed up and down in the meantime. The coordination degree variations of the system showed a double peaks curve:it increased steadily with a low-rate from 1998 to 2001;and then it reached the first peak of 0.5238 in 2001, there is a sudden sharp decline (evaluation index of-1.3478, inter-annual variation scope of -1.8715) in 2001, and gradually evolved to the bottom, then it started to rise again with a more rapid rate (the average inter-annual growth rate is 0.7259) in 2001. Its evolution reached to the second peak 0.7749 in the year of 2006 and began to decline. The relationships between subsystems of urban and rural eco-environment in Chongqing city can be characterized with the equation F= 0.7456F1-0.73112.
The second part is the research on dynamic model of eco-environment system in Chongqing city. By means of system dynamics theory and methods, this paper analysises the eco-environment of Chongqing city in the background of coordinating urban-rural development. From the analyzation, the paper believes that the system consists of three major state variables:pollution, population and funds. They are interrelated and interact on each other through other state variables and auxiliary variables. Thus the system constituting many feedback loops which have different polarity. For that point, this paper has established the System Dynamic model of eco-environment system of Chongqing city in the background of coordinating urban-rural development, and then estimated the model parameters and determined the model kinetic equation. The simulation and final test of the model indicate that its structure and historical behaviours are well testified. So, the model can well describe the actual system.
The third part is System Dynamics simulation for study on eco-environment system of Chongqing city and the results show that:(1) In the next nearly 10 years, the city's total population will increase to 38.6014 million; the urban population will increase to 24.7821 million; the agricultural population will gradually reduce to 13.1283 million, the urbanization rate has reached 0.642, a substantial increase is in industrial output, the process of rapid urbanization has been improved quickly. In the context of urban and rural development in Chongqing Municipality, the total pollution in the environment of industrial waste pollution is greater than the proportion of agricultural non-point source pollution, it is relatively small. (2) As a whole, the industrial waste pollution in Chongqing is a water-based pollution; however, from the view of the rate of increase, it is a gas-based pollution. Taken together, the city's current pattern of industrial waste pollution is: "waste water pollution"> "air pollution"> "solid waste pollution". Among them, industrial solid waste pollution are "ash" pollution type, air pollution is a "sulfur dioxide and fuel dust" pollution type. (3) From the total pollution of view, agricultural non-point source pollution in Chongqing is "cultivation-pesticides-fertizer" pollution type, as for the pollution, planting causing is more serious than cultivation causing. Among planting pollution, pesticides and fertilizers pollution is the most serious one. and then is the straw pollution, the plastic film pollution is the smallest one. However, view at the increasing rates of pollution, it is "pesticides-fertizer-cultivation" pollution on the basis of planting pollution, pesticides-fertizer pollution increase is the fastest, and then is the farming and straw pollution, farm plastic film pollution is relatively minimal.
The fourth part is the policy pilot studies to ecological environment system dynamics model of Chongqing, considering the year of 2010 as the policy test starting point simulate the model. Results show that:(1) To coordinate the development of urban and rural areas in Chongqing's, we must strictly control the population and capital these two factors, so as to coordinate the development of urban and rural eco-environment. As for the total population, first is to control the total population to reach 38.3157 million; second is to gradually increase the urbanization rate to about 0.698; as for the capital element, particular attention should be paid to controlling the ratio of investment in agriculture so as not to indirectly caused increased agricultural non-point source pollution. (2) In order to control the industrial waste pollution occurring in cities and towns,we must pay attention to adjusting the industrial structure, and at the same time, improve the rates of pollution disposal and resource recycling, reduce energy consumption; optimizing simulation showed that the living sewage in the system should also be paid sufficient attention and be reduced by 40% or so on the basis of the basic scheme. (3) The control of agricultural non-point source pollution should focus on the emission of pollutants and pesticides, farming fertilizer application, and increase the effective processing and use of pollutants and pesticides. Optimization scheme showes that they should be gradually improved at 10%-15%.
本文研究主要有四个部分,第一部分是重庆市城乡统筹发展背景下生态环境现状评价研究,利用时序主成分分析法对重庆市1998-2008年11年间生态环境系统行为演变进行实证评价研究。结果显示,城乡背景下重庆市生态环境整体水平在1998-2008年11年间呈持续上升趋势,在其间有变化速率的起伏改变。系统协调度在这期间呈“双峰态”变化：1998-2001年间以低速率稳步上升,2001年达第一个演变峰值0.5238,2002有一个突然的急剧下降(评价指数-1.3478，年际变化幅度达到-1.8715)并逐渐演变达到谷底,2004年开始以较快速率(平均年际增幅0.7259)回升,到2006年演变到第二个峰值0.7749，此后又开始变缓下降。重庆市城乡生态环境子系统间的关系可以用方程式F=0.7456F1-0.7311F2来表征。
第二部分是重庆市生态环境系统动力学建模研究,应用系统动力学原理和方法分析了重庆市城乡统筹发展背景下的生态环境系统,认为系统包括三个主要的状态变量：污染、人口和资金,三个状态变量通过另外一些常量和辅助变量相互作用,从而构成不同反馈极性的循环回路。在此基础上,本文建立了重庆市城乡统筹发展背景下生态环境系统动力学模型,然后估计了模型的相关参数并确定了模型的动力学方程式,最后检验发现模型能很好地通过结构检验和历史行为检验,表明此模型能很好地刻画实际系统。
第三部分是重庆市生态环境系统动力学模型的模拟仿真研究,结果表明：(1)未来近10年内,全市总人口呈逐步增长态势,到2020年将增加到3860.14万人,城镇人口将增至2478.21万人,农业人口逐步减少至1312.83万人,城镇化率达到0.642，工业产值有大幅度增加,城镇化进程较快。在城乡统筹发展背景下,重庆市生态环境总污染中工业三废污染所占比重大于农业面源污染,城镇化给城镇生态环境所带来的环境负荷较大,而给乡村生态环境带来的环境负荷则相对较小。(2)从总量看,重庆市工业三废污染属废水型污染,而从污染增加的速率看,则属废气型污染。综合考虑,全市目前的工业三废污染格局是：废水污染>废气污染>固体废弃物污染。其中,工业固体废弃物污染属“粉煤灰”污染型,废气污染属“二氧化硫-烟尘”污染型。(3)从污染总量看,重庆市农业面源污染属“养殖-农化”型污染,其中种植污染比养殖污染大,在种植污染中农药化肥污染最大,其次是秸秆污染,地膜污染最小。但从污染增加速率看,则属于以种植污染为主的“农化-养殖”型污染,农化污染增加是最快的,其次是养殖和秸秆污染,地膜污染相对最小。
第四部分是重庆市生态环境系统动力学模型的政策试验研究,以2010年为政策试验时间起点对模型进行模拟,最终结果发现：(1)统筹重庆市城乡发展,必须严格控制好人口和资本两个因素,以实现城乡生态环境的协调发展。对于人口一要控制好总量规模达到3831.57万人左右,二要逐步提高城镇化率到0.698左右；对于资本要素,要特别注意控制好农业投资比例以免间接引起农业面源污染加重。(2)控制城镇工业三废污染要注意调整产业结构,从源头上控制污染的发生,同时提高污染处理率、资源重复利用率并降低生产能耗；优化模拟认为系统中生活排污也应引起足够重视,并应在基本方案的基础上减少40%左右。(3)控制农业面源污染要着重控制养殖污染物的排放和农药化肥的施用,并加大对面源污染物的有效处理和利用,优化方案建议逐步提高10%-15%。
System Dynamics (SD) falls into the category of Systems Science. It regardes the research object as a system, and analysises the system's functions through its internal structure, it combines natural science and social science, adopts qualitative and quantitative to analyse the system comprehensively. Eco-environmental system is a multi-factor, high-order, non-linear complex system, involves many complicated factors. So, traditional research methods are no longer applicable to such complex systems.Therefore we chose System Dynamics to study the problem of eco-environment system in Chongqing in the background of conducting urban and rural development, hoping to simulate and forecast the evolution of its begaviors and carry out policy experimentation on it.
This paper is mainly divided into four parts, the first is the evaluation research on present urban eco-environment in Chongqing city in the background of conducting urban and rural eco-environment development. And then, the behaviors of eco-environment system during 1998 to 2008 in Chongqing city was empirically evaluated by using Times Series Analysis & PCA method. The results showed that the overall level of eco-environment quality in Chongqing city in the context of urban and rural development has continued to rise, and the changing rates changed up and down in the meantime. The coordination degree variations of the system showed a double peaks curve:it increased steadily with a low-rate from 1998 to 2001;and then it reached the first peak of 0.5238 in 2001, there is a sudden sharp decline (evaluation index of-1.3478, inter-annual variation scope of -1.8715) in 2001, and gradually evolved to the bottom, then it started to rise again with a more rapid rate (the average inter-annual growth rate is 0.7259) in 2001. Its evolution reached to the second peak 0.7749 in the year of 2006 and began to decline. The relationships between subsystems of urban and rural eco-environment in Chongqing city can be characterized with the equation F= 0.7456F1-0.73112.
The second part is the research on dynamic model of eco-environment system in Chongqing city. By means of system dynamics theory and methods, this paper analysises the eco-environment of Chongqing city in the background of coordinating urban-rural development. From the analyzation, the paper believes that the system consists of three major state variables:pollution, population and funds. They are interrelated and interact on each other through other state variables and auxiliary variables. Thus the system constituting many feedback loops which have different polarity. For that point, this paper has established the System Dynamic model of eco-environment system of Chongqing city in the background of coordinating urban-rural development, and then estimated the model parameters and determined the model kinetic equation. The simulation and final test of the model indicate that its structure and historical behaviours are well testified. So, the model can well describe the actual system.
The third part is System Dynamics simulation for study on eco-environment system of Chongqing city and the results show that:(1) In the next nearly 10 years, the city's total population will increase to 38.6014 million; the urban population will increase to 24.7821 million; the agricultural population will gradually reduce to 13.1283 million, the urbanization rate has reached 0.642, a substantial increase is in industrial output, the process of rapid urbanization has been improved quickly. In the context of urban and rural development in Chongqing Municipality, the total pollution in the environment of industrial waste pollution is greater than the proportion of agricultural non-point source pollution, it is relatively small. (2) As a whole, the industrial waste pollution in Chongqing is a water-based pollution; however, from the view of the rate of increase, it is a gas-based pollution. Taken together, the city's current pattern of industrial waste pollution is: "waste water pollution"> "air pollution"> "solid waste pollution". Among them, industrial solid waste pollution are "ash" pollution type, air pollution is a "sulfur dioxide and fuel dust" pollution type. (3) From the total pollution of view, agricultural non-point source pollution in Chongqing is "cultivation-pesticides-fertizer" pollution type, as for the pollution, planting causing is more serious than cultivation causing. Among planting pollution, pesticides and fertilizers pollution is the most serious one. and then is the straw pollution, the plastic film pollution is the smallest one. However, view at the increasing rates of pollution, it is "pesticides-fertizer-cultivation" pollution on the basis of planting pollution, pesticides-fertizer pollution increase is the fastest, and then is the farming and straw pollution, farm plastic film pollution is relatively minimal.
The fourth part is the policy pilot studies to ecological environment system dynamics model of Chongqing, considering the year of 2010 as the policy test starting point simulate the model. Results show that:(1) To coordinate the development of urban and rural areas in Chongqing's, we must strictly control the population and capital these two factors, so as to coordinate the development of urban and rural eco-environment. As for the total population, first is to control the total population to reach 38.3157 million; second is to gradually increase the urbanization rate to about 0.698; as for the capital element, particular attention should be paid to controlling the ratio of investment in agriculture so as not to indirectly caused increased agricultural non-point source pollution. (2) In order to control the industrial waste pollution occurring in cities and towns,we must pay attention to adjusting the industrial structure, and at the same time, improve the rates of pollution disposal and resource recycling, reduce energy consumption; optimizing simulation showed that the living sewage in the system should also be paid sufficient attention and be reduced by 40% or so on the basis of the basic scheme. (3) The control of agricultural non-point source pollution should focus on the emission of pollutants and pesticides, farming fertilizer application, and increase the effective processing and use of pollutants and pesticides. Optimization scheme showes that they should be gradually improved at 10%-15%.
引文
[1]刘陶茂,王克勤.我国农业面源污染研究与进展[J].自然科学,2008：9-10.
[2]Novotny V, Chesters G. Handbook of non-point source pollution:sources and management[M].New Yrok:Van Nostrand Reinhold Company,1981.
[3]Novotny V, Olem V. Water quality:prevention, identification and management of diffuse pollution[M].New York: Van Nostrand j wile & Sons Publ,1994.
[4]Lee S I.Non-point source pollution[J].Fisheries,1979(2):50～52.
[5]王海芹,万晓红.农业面源污染的立体防控[J].环境整治.2006(3)：69-72.
[6]王宗明,张柏,宋开山等.农业非点源污染国内外研究进展[J].中国农学通报,2007，23(9)：468-471.
[7]Foy R H, Withers P J A. The contribution of agricultural phosphorus to eutrophi cation. Proceedings of Fertilizer Society,1995:356.
[8]Uunk EJ B. Eutrophication of surface water sand the contribution of agriculture. Proceeding of the Fertilizer Society,1991,303:55.
[9]Sharpley A N, Chapra S C R, Wedepohl R, Sims J T, Daniel T C, Reddy K R. Managing agricultural phosphorus for protection of surface waters, issues and options. Journal of Environmental Quality,1994,23:427-451.
[10]Ministry of the Environment of Finland. Sources, processes and effects of water pol lution: Nutrient load on watercourses. http://www.vyh.fi/eng/environ/sustdev/indicat/inditaul. htm,2003.
[11]阎伍玖,鲍祥.巢湖流域农业活动与面源污染的初步研究[J].水土保持学报,2001,15(4)：129-132.
[12]夏立忠,杨林章.太湖流域面源污染研究与控制.长江流域资源与环境,2003,1(21)：45-49.
[13]孙浩,刘淑梅,方鸿国.农业面源污染防治对策研究[J].环境导报,2000，6：32-34.
[14]闫伍玖,鲍祥.巢湖流域农业活动与面源污染的初步研究[J].水土保持学报.2001.15(3)：129-132.
[15]崔键,马友华,赵艳萍,等.农业面源污染的特性及防治对策[J].中国农学通报.2006,22(1)：335-340.
[16]刘润堂,许建中,冯绍元,等.农业面源污染对湖泊水质影响的初步分析[J].中国水利.2002,(6)：542-546.
[17]杨蓉.重庆市农业面源污染分析[D].重庆：西南大学,2009.
[18]崔键,马友华,赵艳萍,等.农业面源污染的特性及防治对策[J].中国农学通报.2006,22(1)：335-340.
[19]彭里,王定勇.重庆市畜禽粪便年排放量的估算研究[J].农业工程学报,2004,20(1)：288-292.
[20]杜军,张宏华,李劲松.三峡库区重庆段富营养化物质氮磷负荷比较研究[J].重庆交通学院学报,2004,23(1)：121-125.
[21]梁亚军.三峡库区畜禽粪便污染状况及治理措施的探讨[J].当代畜牧,2006，(5)：44-46.
[22]彭里,古文海,魏世强,等.重庆市畜禽粪便排放时空分布研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2006,14(4)：213-216.
[23]王宗明,张柏,宋开山等.农业非点源污染国内外研究进展[J].中国农学通报,2007,23(9)：468-471.
[24]张维理,冀宏杰,Kolbe H.,徐爱国.中国农业面源污染形势估计及控制对策Ⅱ.欧美国家农业面源污染状况及控制[J].中国农业科学,2004，37(7)：1018-1025.
[25]Huber A, Bach M, Freck H G. Modeling pesticide losses with surface run of in Germany[J]. The Science of the Total Environment,1998,223:177-191.
[26]Ng H Y F. Clegg S B. Atrazine and metolachlor losses in run of events from all agricultural watersheds:the importance of run of components[J]. The Science of the Total Environment,1997, 193:215-228.
[27]陈为峰,史衍玺.“3S”技术在农业面源污染研究中的应用[J].水土保持学.2002,6(2)：122-125.
[28]Jameison D G,Fedra K.The"water ware"decision sup-port system for river basin planning: Conceptual designof hydrology[J].1996,(177) 163-175.
[29]Bingner R L, Theurer F D, Cronshey R G etal. AGNPS 2001 Web Sitehttp://www. Sedlab. Olemiss. edu/AGNPS. Html.2001.
[30]Tripathi M P, Panda R K, Raghuwanshi N S Development of effective management plan for critical subwatersheds using S WAT model [J]. Hydrological Process,2005,19:809-826.
[31]Damien R, Jean A Run of and water erosion modeling using WEPP on a Mediterranean cultivated catchment[J]. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,2006,31:1038-1047.
[32]水建国,柴锡周,张如良.红壤坡地不同生态模式水土流失规律的研究[J].水土保持学报,2001,15(2)：33-36.
[33]卓慕宁,李定强,吴志峰,等.广东省坡地持续利用中的土壤侵蚀问题[J].资源科学,2004,26(增刊)：125-131.
[34]立光,吴伯志.不同耕种方式对玉米经济性状和产量的影响田[J].云南农业大学学报,1989,4(1)：1-5.
[35]吴伯志，刘立光.不同耕种措施对坡地红壤侵蚀率的影响[J].耕作与栽培,1996(5)：17-20.
[36]刘立光,吴伯志.不同耕种方式对水土流失及产量的影响[J].耕作与栽培,1993(4)：12-14.
[37]李俊波,华珞,马琰.坡地土壤养分流失研究概况[J].土壤通报,2005,36(5)：753-759.
[38]王辉,王全九,邵明安.降水条件下黄土坡地氮素淋溶特征的研究[J].水土保持学报,2005,19(5)：61-65.
[39]莫绍周.复合人工湿地在农业面源污染治理中的应用研究[D].昆明理工大学,2005.
[40]张斌,张桃林.低丘红壤区农林间作系统的水分生态特征及生产力叨.生态学杂志,1997，16(4)：1-5.
[41]周凌云,周刘宗,徐梦雄.农田秸秆覆盖节水效应研究[J].生态农业研究,1996，4(3)：49-52.
[42]魏延举,耿全胜.秸秆还田是提高土壤肥力的有效途径[J].黑龙江农业科学,1992(1)：30-33.
[43]Knisel, W. G, CREAM: A Field-Scale Model foe Chemical Runoff, and Erosion from Agricultural Management System, Proc 13t" conf. Modeling and Simulation,1982,4, Apri 1.
[44]陈西平.计算降雨及农田径流污染负荷的三峡库区模型[J].中国环境科学,1992，10.
[45]Beasley, D.B. Applying Distributed Parameter Modeling Techniques to Watershed Hydrology and Non-point Source Pollution Proc 13t" conf. Modeling and Simulation,1982,4,Apri 1.
[46]Yong, R. A. et al. AgNPS:A Nonpoint-Source Pollutioi Modeling for Evaluation Agricultural Watersheds. J. of Soil ani Water Conservation,1989, March-April.
[47]P.LA.Kinnell, AGNPS-UM:applying the LISLE-M within thi agricultural non-point source pollution model, Environmental modelingA.software 15(2000)331-341.
[48]Lane, L. J., et al, The Water Erosion Prediction Project Model Overview. In Proc. Natl. water Conf. ASCE.1989.
[49]盆亮.GIS支持下西湖流域水环境面源污染研究[D].浙江:浙江大学,2001.
[50]张健.CREAMS模型在计算黄土坡地径流流量计浸蚀量中的应用[J].土壤浸蚀与水土保持学报.1995,1(1)：54-57.
[51]陈一兵,Trouwborst, K.O.1997.土坡侵蚀建模中ANSWERS及地理信息系统ARC/INFO的应用研究[J].土壤侵蚀与水土保持学报,3(2)1-13.
[52]殷福才.欧盟工业污染防治政策的发展趋势[J].环境科学动态,2003,1：4-6.
[53]朱金山,王定勇.重庆市经济增长与环境污染关系及成因分析这[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2008,30(11)：111-113
[54]何太蓉,郭跃,刘存东.重庆市经济发展与工业污染排放库兹涅茨曲线评价[J].重庆师范大学学报(自然科学版),2009，26(2)：49-53.
[55]李琳,朱金山,高润霞,黄安寿.1995～2006年重庆市经济增长与环境污染关系析论[J].安顺学院报,2008，10(6)：91-93.
[56]胡继连.工业污染对我国农业的影响[J].生态经济,1998，5：5-7.
[57]徐丽华,王立本.济南市工业三废污染及其治理[J].环境科学与管理,2006，31(8)：73-75.
[58]World Water Assessment Programme. The United Nations World Water Development Report: Water for People, Water for Life[M]. Washington DC:UNESCO Publishing,2002:325-389.
[59]D. Wichelns, L. Houston, and D. Cone. Economic incentives reduce irrigation Deliveries and drain water volume[J], Irrigationd rainage Systems,1996,10:131-141.
[60]Raskin P D, Hansen E Margolis R M. Water and Sustainability:Global Patterns and Long-range Problems[J], Natural Researchs Forum.1996,20(1):1-15.
[61]Gilbert F. White. Strategies of American Water Management[M], Lansing:The United States of Michigan Press,1971.
[62]李岳云.“谁来养活中国”的争论及其启示[J].农业经济问题,1996，(10)：2-6.
[63]Frederiksen, H. D. Water Crisis in Developing World:Misconceptions about Solutions[J], J. Water Resour. Ping. Ang Magmt., ASCE,1996,122(2):79-87.
[64]Simonovic S P. Assessment of Water Resources Through System Dynamics Simulation:From Global issues to Regional Solutions[A]. In:Proceedings of the 36th International Conference on System Sciences, Modeling Nonlinear Natural and Human Systems, Abstractbook CD Rom full paper.2003:93.
[65]黄振中,王艳,李思-,丁凡,吴叶君.中国可持续发展系统动力学仿真模型[J].计算机仿真,1997,14(4)：3-7.
f66]王艳,李思一,吴叶君,丁凡,黄振中.中国可持续发展系统动力学仿真模型——社会部分[J].计算机仿真,1998,15(1)：5-7.
[67]丁凡,王艳,李思一,吴叶君,喻顺祥,黄振中.中国可持续发展系统动力学仿真模型——环境部分[J].计算机仿真,1998,15(1)：8-10.
[68]丁凡,王艳,李思一,吴叶君,喻顺祥,黄振中.中国可持续发展系统动力学仿真模型——能源部分[J].计算机仿真,1998,15(1)：11-13.
[69]陈成鲜,严广乐.我国水资源可持续发展系统动力学模型研究[J].上海理工大学学报,2000,22(2)：154-159.
[70]张在旭,王只坤,侯风华,姜梅芳,付峰,李新民.石油勘探开发可持续发展SD模型的建立与应用[J].工业工程,2002,5(2)：1-6.
[71]李堂军,孙承爱,庞莹,刘鹏.兖州矿区可持续发展能力动态分析与对策[J].矿业研究与开发,2002，22(4)：17-20.
[72]汤万金,高林,吴刚,李祥仪.矿区可持续发展系统动力学模拟与调控[J].生态学报,2000,20(1)：20-27.
[73]凌亢,王浣尘,陈传美.南京市可持续发展系统模型的运行与检验[J].武汉大学学报(社会科学版),2002,55(1)：64-69.
[74]凌亢,王浣尘,陈传美.南京市可持续发展系统模型的仿真与分析[J].统计研究,2001,(1)：62-64.
[75]沈先荣.临淄区经济社会可持续发展系统分析[J].科学与管理,2000，20(2)：25-27.
[76]姚建,刘莉,罗文锋,张军.成都市可持续发展模拟与调控[J].山地学报,2000，18(5)：474-480.
[77]孙希华,高志强.济南可持续发展对策研究系统动力学模型[J].山东师大学报(自然科学版),1996,11(3)：65-69.
[78]徐建华,罗格平,牛达奎.绿洲型城市生态经济持续发展仿真研究[J].中国沙漠,1996,16(3)：234-240.
[79]宋世涛,魏一鸣,范英.中国可持续发展问题的系统动力学研究进展[J].中国人口、资源与环境,2004，14(2)：42-48.
[80]李林红.滇池流域可持续发展投入产出系统动力学模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2002,22(8)：89-94.
[81]汤洁,佘孝云,林年丰.吉林省大安市生态环境规划系统动力学仿真模型[J].生态学报,2005,25(5)：1178-1183.
[82]李涛.陕北退耕还林的系统动力学研究[D].西安：西安建筑科技大学,2005.
[83]李天宏,曹建科,张昌盛.玛纳斯河流域绿洲-荒漠互馈作用的系统动力学模拟[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2006,14(3)：342-352.
[84]张洪江,王礼先.坡面林地土壤流失系统动力学模型研究[J].北京林业大学学报,1996,18(4)：43-49.
[85]辜迅,古地洋.四川首部规划环评大纲编制完成[N].中国环境报,2003-10-21.
[86]河北省环保局. 石家庄首部规划环评[N].省内快讯,2004-3-3.
[87]周世星.系统动力学在区域规划环境影响评价中的应用[D].成都：四川大学,2005.
[88]朱德明,赵海霞.关注城乡统筹发展中的二元环境结构[J].现代经济探讨,2005，(6)：32-34.
[89]周丽娟,陈玉成,陈庆华,等.重庆市城乡统筹发展中的农业面源污染防治[J].环境管理,2008,(2)：92-96.
[90]韩彦东.改善农村环境质量,实现统筹城乡发展[J].生产力研究,2005,(12)：53-54.
[91]黄桂平,李素若.新农村建设中生态环境问题与工作思路[J].湖北农业科学,2006，45(6)：690-692.
[92]贾后明.以科学发展观统筹城乡环境保护[J].农村经济,2006，(11)：29-32.
[93]熊小青.流域生态环境安全与城乡统筹发展创新思考[J].农村经济,2006,(12)：93-95.
[94]朱德明.城乡统筹发展的环境保护对策[J].经济研究参考,2005，(71)：13-14.
[95]王其藩.系统动力学[M].北京：清华大学出版社,1993,48-49.
[96]王其藩.系统动力学的理论与应用(三)[J].国外自动化,1986(2)：54-57.
[97]苏懋康.系统动力学原理及应用[M].上海：上海交通大学出版社,1988，256-257.
[98]江应洛.系统工程理论、方法与应用(第二版)[M].北京：高等教育出版社,1998.
[99]美.福瑞斯特.工业动力学(第一版)[M].北京：科学出版社.
[100]王其藩.高级系统动力学[M].北京：清华大学出版社,1995：3-5.
[101]王其藩.系统动力学的理论与应用(一)[J].国外自动化,1985(6)：53-55.
[102]王其藩.系统动力学[M].北京：清华大学出版社,1993,5-9.
[103]贾仁安,丁荣华.系统动力学——反馈动态性复杂分析(第一版)[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2002.
[104]王其藩.系统动力学[M].北京：清华大学出版社,1993，282-283.
[105]王其藩.高级系统动力学[M].北京：清华大学出版社,1995.
[106]王其藩.系统动力学的理论与应用(二)[J].国外自动化,1986(1)：46-49.
[107]省市数据网.http://provincedata.mofcom.gov.cn,2007年上半年重庆工业生产明显提速[R].2007.
[108]省市数据网.http://provincedata.mofcom.gov.cn,重庆市2009年工业经济总量突破8000亿元[R].2010.
[109]何晓辉.现代统计分析方法与应用[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2003.
[110]米国芳.利用主成分分析法分析我国35个中心城市的综合发展水平[J].甘肃农业,2006，6：35-36.
[112]乔峰,姚俭.时序全局主成分分析在经济发展动态描绘中的应用[J].数理统计与管理,2003,22(2)：1-5.
[113]罗光斌,何丙辉,温晨晓,等.基于时序主成分分析的重庆市可持续发展实证研究[J].西
南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2008,6(4)：7-11.
[114]于秀林,任雪松.多元统计分析[M].北京：中国统计出版社,1999.
[115]许学强,张俊军.广州城市可持续发展的综合评价[J].地理学报,2001,56(1)：54-63.
[116]丁凡,王艳.中国可持续发展系统动力学仿真模型——环境部分[M].计算机仿真,1998，1(15)：8-10.
[117]重庆市统计局.重庆统计年鉴——2008[M].重庆：中国统计出版社,2008.
[118]张荣.城市可持续发展动力学模型及评价指标体系研究[D].郑州：2003.
[119]重庆市政府网.http://www. cq.gov.cn,重庆市水资源公报[R].2000
[120]中国水势.http://www.waterinfo.com.cn,人均综合用水量方法预测需水量——观察未来社会用水的有效途径[R].2005
[121]重庆市政府网.http://www. cq.gov.cn,重庆市水资源公报[R].2001
[122]重庆市政府网.http://www. cq.gov.cn,重庆市水资源公报[R].2002
[123]重庆市政府网.http://www. cq.gov.cn,重庆市水资源公报[R].2003
[124]重庆市政府网.http://www. cq.gov.cn,重庆市水资源公报[R].2004
[125]重庆市政府网.http://www. cq.gov.cn,重庆市水资源公报[R].2005
[126]重庆市政府网.http://www. cq.gov.cn,重庆市水资源公报[R].2006
[127]重庆市政府网.http://www. cq.gov.cn,重庆市水资源公报[R].2007
[128]重庆市政府网.http://www. cq.gov.cn,重庆市水资源公报[R].2008
[129]方淑荣,刘正库.论农业面源污染及其防治对策[J].农业科技管理.2006,25(3)：22-23.
[130]周英峰,杨进欣.2015年我国秸秆资源综合利用率有望超过80%[J].中国农业信息网(http://www.agri.gov.cn),2008.
[131]王学良.重庆市农业面源污染现状与防治研究[J].微量元素与健康研究，2007，24(3)：35-37.
[132]彭里,古文海,魏世强,王定勇.重庆市畜禽粪便排放时空分布研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2006,(14)4：213-216.
[2]Novotny V, Chesters G. Handbook of non-point source pollution:sources and management[M].New Yrok:Van Nostrand Reinhold Company,1981.
[3]Novotny V, Olem V. Water quality:prevention, identification and management of diffuse pollution[M].New York: Van Nostrand j wile & Sons Publ,1994.
[4]Lee S I.Non-point source pollution[J].Fisheries,1979(2):50～52.
[5]王海芹,万晓红.农业面源污染的立体防控[J].环境整治.2006(3)：69-72.
[6]王宗明,张柏,宋开山等.农业非点源污染国内外研究进展[J].中国农学通报,2007，23(9)：468-471.
[7]Foy R H, Withers P J A. The contribution of agricultural phosphorus to eutrophi cation. Proceedings of Fertilizer Society,1995:356.
[8]Uunk EJ B. Eutrophication of surface water sand the contribution of agriculture. Proceeding of the Fertilizer Society,1991,303:55.
[9]Sharpley A N, Chapra S C R, Wedepohl R, Sims J T, Daniel T C, Reddy K R. Managing agricultural phosphorus for protection of surface waters, issues and options. Journal of Environmental Quality,1994,23:427-451.
[10]Ministry of the Environment of Finland. Sources, processes and effects of water pol lution: Nutrient load on watercourses. http://www.vyh.fi/eng/environ/sustdev/indicat/inditaul. htm,2003.
[11]阎伍玖,鲍祥.巢湖流域农业活动与面源污染的初步研究[J].水土保持学报,2001,15(4)：129-132.
[12]夏立忠,杨林章.太湖流域面源污染研究与控制.长江流域资源与环境,2003,1(21)：45-49.
[13]孙浩,刘淑梅,方鸿国.农业面源污染防治对策研究[J].环境导报,2000，6：32-34.
[14]闫伍玖,鲍祥.巢湖流域农业活动与面源污染的初步研究[J].水土保持学报.2001.15(3)：129-132.
[15]崔键,马友华,赵艳萍,等.农业面源污染的特性及防治对策[J].中国农学通报.2006,22(1)：335-340.
[16]刘润堂,许建中,冯绍元,等.农业面源污染对湖泊水质影响的初步分析[J].中国水利.2002,(6)：542-546.
[17]杨蓉.重庆市农业面源污染分析[D].重庆：西南大学,2009.
[18]崔键,马友华,赵艳萍,等.农业面源污染的特性及防治对策[J].中国农学通报.2006,22(1)：335-340.
[19]彭里,王定勇.重庆市畜禽粪便年排放量的估算研究[J].农业工程学报,2004,20(1)：288-292.
[20]杜军,张宏华,李劲松.三峡库区重庆段富营养化物质氮磷负荷比较研究[J].重庆交通学院学报,2004,23(1)：121-125.
[21]梁亚军.三峡库区畜禽粪便污染状况及治理措施的探讨[J].当代畜牧,2006，(5)：44-46.
[22]彭里,古文海,魏世强,等.重庆市畜禽粪便排放时空分布研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2006,14(4)：213-216.
[23]王宗明,张柏,宋开山等.农业非点源污染国内外研究进展[J].中国农学通报,2007,23(9)：468-471.
[24]张维理,冀宏杰,Kolbe H.,徐爱国.中国农业面源污染形势估计及控制对策Ⅱ.欧美国家农业面源污染状况及控制[J].中国农业科学,2004，37(7)：1018-1025.
[25]Huber A, Bach M, Freck H G. Modeling pesticide losses with surface run of in Germany[J]. The Science of the Total Environment,1998,223:177-191.
[26]Ng H Y F. Clegg S B. Atrazine and metolachlor losses in run of events from all agricultural watersheds:the importance of run of components[J]. The Science of the Total Environment,1997, 193:215-228.
[27]陈为峰,史衍玺.“3S”技术在农业面源污染研究中的应用[J].水土保持学.2002,6(2)：122-125.
[28]Jameison D G,Fedra K.The"water ware"decision sup-port system for river basin planning: Conceptual designof hydrology[J].1996,(177) 163-175.
[29]Bingner R L, Theurer F D, Cronshey R G etal. AGNPS 2001 Web Sitehttp://www. Sedlab. Olemiss. edu/AGNPS. Html.2001.
[30]Tripathi M P, Panda R K, Raghuwanshi N S Development of effective management plan for critical subwatersheds using S WAT model [J]. Hydrological Process,2005,19:809-826.
[31]Damien R, Jean A Run of and water erosion modeling using WEPP on a Mediterranean cultivated catchment[J]. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,2006,31:1038-1047.
[32]水建国,柴锡周,张如良.红壤坡地不同生态模式水土流失规律的研究[J].水土保持学报,2001,15(2)：33-36.
[33]卓慕宁,李定强,吴志峰,等.广东省坡地持续利用中的土壤侵蚀问题[J].资源科学,2004,26(增刊)：125-131.
[34]立光,吴伯志.不同耕种方式对玉米经济性状和产量的影响田[J].云南农业大学学报,1989,4(1)：1-5.
[35]吴伯志，刘立光.不同耕种措施对坡地红壤侵蚀率的影响[J].耕作与栽培,1996(5)：17-20.
[36]刘立光,吴伯志.不同耕种方式对水土流失及产量的影响[J].耕作与栽培,1993(4)：12-14.
[37]李俊波,华珞,马琰.坡地土壤养分流失研究概况[J].土壤通报,2005,36(5)：753-759.
[38]王辉,王全九,邵明安.降水条件下黄土坡地氮素淋溶特征的研究[J].水土保持学报,2005,19(5)：61-65.
[39]莫绍周.复合人工湿地在农业面源污染治理中的应用研究[D].昆明理工大学,2005.
[40]张斌,张桃林.低丘红壤区农林间作系统的水分生态特征及生产力叨.生态学杂志,1997，16(4)：1-5.
[41]周凌云,周刘宗,徐梦雄.农田秸秆覆盖节水效应研究[J].生态农业研究,1996，4(3)：49-52.
[42]魏延举,耿全胜.秸秆还田是提高土壤肥力的有效途径[J].黑龙江农业科学,1992(1)：30-33.
[43]Knisel, W. G, CREAM: A Field-Scale Model foe Chemical Runoff, and Erosion from Agricultural Management System, Proc 13t" conf. Modeling and Simulation,1982,4, Apri 1.
[44]陈西平.计算降雨及农田径流污染负荷的三峡库区模型[J].中国环境科学,1992，10.
[45]Beasley, D.B. Applying Distributed Parameter Modeling Techniques to Watershed Hydrology and Non-point Source Pollution Proc 13t" conf. Modeling and Simulation,1982,4,Apri 1.
[46]Yong, R. A. et al. AgNPS:A Nonpoint-Source Pollutioi Modeling for Evaluation Agricultural Watersheds. J. of Soil ani Water Conservation,1989, March-April.
[47]P.LA.Kinnell, AGNPS-UM:applying the LISLE-M within thi agricultural non-point source pollution model, Environmental modelingA.software 15(2000)331-341.
[48]Lane, L. J., et al, The Water Erosion Prediction Project Model Overview. In Proc. Natl. water Conf. ASCE.1989.
[49]盆亮.GIS支持下西湖流域水环境面源污染研究[D].浙江:浙江大学,2001.
[50]张健.CREAMS模型在计算黄土坡地径流流量计浸蚀量中的应用[J].土壤浸蚀与水土保持学报.1995,1(1)：54-57.
[51]陈一兵,Trouwborst, K.O.1997.土坡侵蚀建模中ANSWERS及地理信息系统ARC/INFO的应用研究[J].土壤侵蚀与水土保持学报,3(2)1-13.
[52]殷福才.欧盟工业污染防治政策的发展趋势[J].环境科学动态,2003,1：4-6.
[53]朱金山,王定勇.重庆市经济增长与环境污染关系及成因分析这[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2008,30(11)：111-113
[54]何太蓉,郭跃,刘存东.重庆市经济发展与工业污染排放库兹涅茨曲线评价[J].重庆师范大学学报(自然科学版),2009，26(2)：49-53.
[55]李琳,朱金山,高润霞,黄安寿.1995～2006年重庆市经济增长与环境污染关系析论[J].安顺学院报,2008，10(6)：91-93.
[56]胡继连.工业污染对我国农业的影响[J].生态经济,1998，5：5-7.
[57]徐丽华,王立本.济南市工业三废污染及其治理[J].环境科学与管理,2006，31(8)：73-75.
[58]World Water Assessment Programme. The United Nations World Water Development Report: Water for People, Water for Life[M]. Washington DC:UNESCO Publishing,2002:325-389.
[59]D. Wichelns, L. Houston, and D. Cone. Economic incentives reduce irrigation Deliveries and drain water volume[J], Irrigationd rainage Systems,1996,10:131-141.
[60]Raskin P D, Hansen E Margolis R M. Water and Sustainability:Global Patterns and Long-range Problems[J], Natural Researchs Forum.1996,20(1):1-15.
[61]Gilbert F. White. Strategies of American Water Management[M], Lansing:The United States of Michigan Press,1971.
[62]李岳云.“谁来养活中国”的争论及其启示[J].农业经济问题,1996，(10)：2-6.
[63]Frederiksen, H. D. Water Crisis in Developing World:Misconceptions about Solutions[J], J. Water Resour. Ping. Ang Magmt., ASCE,1996,122(2):79-87.
[64]Simonovic S P. Assessment of Water Resources Through System Dynamics Simulation:From Global issues to Regional Solutions[A]. In:Proceedings of the 36th International Conference on System Sciences, Modeling Nonlinear Natural and Human Systems, Abstractbook CD Rom full paper.2003:93.
[65]黄振中,王艳,李思-,丁凡,吴叶君.中国可持续发展系统动力学仿真模型[J].计算机仿真,1997,14(4)：3-7.
f66]王艳,李思一,吴叶君,丁凡,黄振中.中国可持续发展系统动力学仿真模型——社会部分[J].计算机仿真,1998,15(1)：5-7.
[67]丁凡,王艳,李思一,吴叶君,喻顺祥,黄振中.中国可持续发展系统动力学仿真模型——环境部分[J].计算机仿真,1998,15(1)：8-10.
[68]丁凡,王艳,李思一,吴叶君,喻顺祥,黄振中.中国可持续发展系统动力学仿真模型——能源部分[J].计算机仿真,1998,15(1)：11-13.
[69]陈成鲜,严广乐.我国水资源可持续发展系统动力学模型研究[J].上海理工大学学报,2000,22(2)：154-159.
[70]张在旭,王只坤,侯风华,姜梅芳,付峰,李新民.石油勘探开发可持续发展SD模型的建立与应用[J].工业工程,2002,5(2)：1-6.
[71]李堂军,孙承爱,庞莹,刘鹏.兖州矿区可持续发展能力动态分析与对策[J].矿业研究与开发,2002，22(4)：17-20.
[72]汤万金,高林,吴刚,李祥仪.矿区可持续发展系统动力学模拟与调控[J].生态学报,2000,20(1)：20-27.
[73]凌亢,王浣尘,陈传美.南京市可持续发展系统模型的运行与检验[J].武汉大学学报(社会科学版),2002,55(1)：64-69.
[74]凌亢,王浣尘,陈传美.南京市可持续发展系统模型的仿真与分析[J].统计研究,2001,(1)：62-64.
[75]沈先荣.临淄区经济社会可持续发展系统分析[J].科学与管理,2000，20(2)：25-27.
[76]姚建,刘莉,罗文锋,张军.成都市可持续发展模拟与调控[J].山地学报,2000，18(5)：474-480.
[77]孙希华,高志强.济南可持续发展对策研究系统动力学模型[J].山东师大学报(自然科学版),1996,11(3)：65-69.
[78]徐建华,罗格平,牛达奎.绿洲型城市生态经济持续发展仿真研究[J].中国沙漠,1996,16(3)：234-240.
[79]宋世涛,魏一鸣,范英.中国可持续发展问题的系统动力学研究进展[J].中国人口、资源与环境,2004，14(2)：42-48.
[80]李林红.滇池流域可持续发展投入产出系统动力学模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2002,22(8)：89-94.
[81]汤洁,佘孝云,林年丰.吉林省大安市生态环境规划系统动力学仿真模型[J].生态学报,2005,25(5)：1178-1183.
[82]李涛.陕北退耕还林的系统动力学研究[D].西安：西安建筑科技大学,2005.
[83]李天宏,曹建科,张昌盛.玛纳斯河流域绿洲-荒漠互馈作用的系统动力学模拟[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2006,14(3)：342-352.
[84]张洪江,王礼先.坡面林地土壤流失系统动力学模型研究[J].北京林业大学学报,1996,18(4)：43-49.
[85]辜迅,古地洋.四川首部规划环评大纲编制完成[N].中国环境报,2003-10-21.
[86]河北省环保局. 石家庄首部规划环评[N].省内快讯,2004-3-3.
[87]周世星.系统动力学在区域规划环境影响评价中的应用[D].成都：四川大学,2005.
[88]朱德明,赵海霞.关注城乡统筹发展中的二元环境结构[J].现代经济探讨,2005，(6)：32-34.
[89]周丽娟,陈玉成,陈庆华,等.重庆市城乡统筹发展中的农业面源污染防治[J].环境管理,2008,(2)：92-96.
[90]韩彦东.改善农村环境质量,实现统筹城乡发展[J].生产力研究,2005,(12)：53-54.
[91]黄桂平,李素若.新农村建设中生态环境问题与工作思路[J].湖北农业科学,2006，45(6)：690-692.
[92]贾后明.以科学发展观统筹城乡环境保护[J].农村经济,2006，(11)：29-32.
[93]熊小青.流域生态环境安全与城乡统筹发展创新思考[J].农村经济,2006,(12)：93-95.
[94]朱德明.城乡统筹发展的环境保护对策[J].经济研究参考,2005，(71)：13-14.
[95]王其藩.系统动力学[M].北京：清华大学出版社,1993,48-49.
[96]王其藩.系统动力学的理论与应用(三)[J].国外自动化,1986(2)：54-57.
[97]苏懋康.系统动力学原理及应用[M].上海：上海交通大学出版社,1988，256-257.
[98]江应洛.系统工程理论、方法与应用(第二版)[M].北京：高等教育出版社,1998.
[99]美.福瑞斯特.工业动力学(第一版)[M].北京：科学出版社.
[100]王其藩.高级系统动力学[M].北京：清华大学出版社,1995：3-5.
[101]王其藩.系统动力学的理论与应用(一)[J].国外自动化,1985(6)：53-55.
[102]王其藩.系统动力学[M].北京：清华大学出版社,1993,5-9.
[103]贾仁安,丁荣华.系统动力学——反馈动态性复杂分析(第一版)[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2002.
[104]王其藩.系统动力学[M].北京：清华大学出版社,1993，282-283.
[105]王其藩.高级系统动力学[M].北京：清华大学出版社,1995.
[106]王其藩.系统动力学的理论与应用(二)[J].国外自动化,1986(1)：46-49.
[107]省市数据网.http://provincedata.mofcom.gov.cn,2007年上半年重庆工业生产明显提速[R].2007.
[108]省市数据网.http://provincedata.mofcom.gov.cn,重庆市2009年工业经济总量突破8000亿元[R].2010.
[109]何晓辉.现代统计分析方法与应用[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2003.
[110]米国芳.利用主成分分析法分析我国35个中心城市的综合发展水平[J].甘肃农业,2006，6：35-36.
[112]乔峰,姚俭.时序全局主成分分析在经济发展动态描绘中的应用[J].数理统计与管理,2003,22(2)：1-5.
[113]罗光斌,何丙辉,温晨晓,等.基于时序主成分分析的重庆市可持续发展实证研究[J].西
南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2008,6(4)：7-11.
[114]于秀林,任雪松.多元统计分析[M].北京：中国统计出版社,1999.
[115]许学强,张俊军.广州城市可持续发展的综合评价[J].地理学报,2001,56(1)：54-63.
[116]丁凡,王艳.中国可持续发展系统动力学仿真模型——环境部分[M].计算机仿真,1998，1(15)：8-10.
[117]重庆市统计局.重庆统计年鉴——2008[M].重庆：中国统计出版社,2008.
[118]张荣.城市可持续发展动力学模型及评价指标体系研究[D].郑州：2003.
[119]重庆市政府网.http://www. cq.gov.cn,重庆市水资源公报[R].2000
[120]中国水势.http://www.waterinfo.com.cn,人均综合用水量方法预测需水量——观察未来社会用水的有效途径[R].2005
[121]重庆市政府网.http://www. cq.gov.cn,重庆市水资源公报[R].2001
[122]重庆市政府网.http://www. cq.gov.cn,重庆市水资源公报[R].2002
[123]重庆市政府网.http://www. cq.gov.cn,重庆市水资源公报[R].2003
[124]重庆市政府网.http://www. cq.gov.cn,重庆市水资源公报[R].2004
[125]重庆市政府网.http://www. cq.gov.cn,重庆市水资源公报[R].2005
[126]重庆市政府网.http://www. cq.gov.cn,重庆市水资源公报[R].2006
[127]重庆市政府网.http://www. cq.gov.cn,重庆市水资源公报[R].2007
[128]重庆市政府网.http://www. cq.gov.cn,重庆市水资源公报[R].2008
[129]方淑荣,刘正库.论农业面源污染及其防治对策[J].农业科技管理.2006,25(3)：22-23.
[130]周英峰,杨进欣.2015年我国秸秆资源综合利用率有望超过80%[J].中国农业信息网(http://www.agri.gov.cn),2008.
[131]王学良.重庆市农业面源污染现状与防治研究[J].微量元素与健康研究，2007，24(3)：35-37.
[132]彭里,古文海,魏世强,王定勇.重庆市畜禽粪便排放时空分布研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2006,(14)4：213-216.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |