“5.12”汶川大地震农户的经济损失及应对策略研究
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摘要
“5.12”汶川大地震是新中国成立以来破坏性最强、波及范围最广的一次地震,造成大量人员伤亡、房屋倒塌、交通受阻、学校医院等基础设施严重破坏,农民正常生产生活已受到严重影响。尤其在基础设施差、抗击风险能力弱的农村地区,面对巨大地震灾害,脆弱的农户由于缺乏正规的风险管理制度安排和风险管理工具,极容易受到不利的冲击和影响,而导致贫困问题、教育问题、医疗卫生问题以及农业生产投入问题等等。政府的救助相对于农户遭受的损失,只能是杯水车薪,脆弱的农户必然发展出各种策略来提高自我保障,降低对自身生计的冲击和影响。因此科学地衡量地震对农户造成的经济损失和生活影响,考察农户努力采取的各种应对策略,对当前和今后的灾后救助、重建以及经济发展具有积极的指导意义。
本文在综合评述国内外灾害经济和风险管理理论的基础上,选取四川省5个重灾县的450户农户家庭为研究对象,对其地震的直接经济损失进行合理估算,并在此基础上,尝试运用主成分分析对其灾害承受能力进行评价;接着,基于二元logistic模型分析农户的地震经济损失、个体特征和经济状况对农户采取不同应对策略的影响;最后考察这些因素和策略对震后农户家庭的消费行为影响,并为当前和今后的应对自然灾害和构建正规社会安全保障网提出相关建议。本文通过这几部分研究,得出以下几点结论:
(1)地震灾害给农户造成了严重的经济损失,其损失额度相对于农户家庭收入过高,极有可能使农户陷入贫困的深渊。汶川大地震造成农户平均财产损失额度为46464元,其中有房屋倒塌的农户平均损失为59470元,而灾区农户家庭平均年收入只有16140元。如果没有政府的救助,即使农户家庭不吃不喝,也得需要2或3年的时间才能恢复到震前的生活水平。
(2)为了分析地震灾区农户应对策略选择的影响因素,本文通过构建二元logistic模型进行了相应研究。影响农户应对策略的主要因素有:区域、年龄、教育年限、家庭规模、经济状况、损失状况等因素。其中动用储蓄与年龄、家庭收入呈显著正相关;亲友间借贷与家庭规模、收入呈显著负相关;银行贷款与年龄呈显著负相关,与总体损失成正相关;外出打工与教育程度呈显著负相关,与总损失成正相关。
(3)通过对灾后农户消费行为变化的研究分析,农户的家庭特征对震后消费行为并不具有显著的影响。农户家庭遭受的损失越大,农户震后越倾向于增加开支。在采取的策略上,自身的储蓄已经无法满足,必须寻求外界帮助如亲友借贷和银行贷款。银行贷款是大多数农户应灾策略的首选,原因在于地震造成整个社区以及社区以外广大区域都受到严重的系统性破坏,大多数农户及其亲友都遭受严重影响。风险已经不能在扩大的家庭甚至社区外化解和转移,农户的内部策略已经基本失效,只能依靠正式的金融机构。但如果农户可以从亲友处获得帮助,亲友借贷的效果要优于银行贷款,因为银行贷款无疑会增加农户债务负担,是在无法获得亲友借贷后的替代选择。
"5.12" Wenchuan earthquake is since the founding of the People's Republic of China the most devastating and the largest scope of an earthquake,resulting in heavy casualties,housing collapse,traffic disruption,schools,hospitals and other infrastructures severely damaged,severely affecting the normal production and living of farmers.Especially in rural areas with poor infrastructure and weak capacity against the risks,when a huge earthquake disaster happens,the rural households due to the lack of formal risk management institutional arrangements and risk management tools,are extremely vulnerable to the adverse impact and influence of the seismic hazard,which will lead to the problems of poverty and education,medical and health issues and problems of agricultural production inputs so on.Government assistance in relation to losses suffered by rural households can only be a drop in the bucket.The vulnerable rural households have to develop various strategies to enhance self-protection and reduce the impact on their own livelihoods.Therefore scientifically assessing the economic losses and the impact of the rural households and observing various coping strategies the rural households adapted have a positive significance for current and future post-disaster relief, reconstruction and economic development.
On the basis of a comprehensive review of domestic and international disasters economics and risk management theory,the paper selects 450 rural households from 5 earthquake-stricken counties in Sichuan Province for the study,reasonably estimates their earthquake direct economic losses,and on this basis,tries to use principal component analysis to evaluate the capacity against disaster;Secondly,by describing the economic losses by earthquake,individual characteristics and economic situation,the paper based on the binary logistic model analyses and concludes different determinants of different coping strategies of rural households;Thirdly,the paper analyses these factors' impacts on post-disaster consumption behavior,and puts forward some suggestions for currently and in future coping with natural disasters and building formal social security network.In this paper,the following conclusions are drawn:
(1) The earthquake caused severe economic losses,the amount of which is too high relative to the family income.It is highly possible to make farmers into the poverty trap. In Wenchuan earthquake the average amount of rural households' property losses adds up to 46,464yuan,especially which toppling the house is 59,470yuan,while the average annual income of rural households in earthquake-stricken areas is only 16,140yuan. Without government assistance,even if the rural household doesn't eat and drink,they also have to spend 2 or 3 years in order to return to pre-earthquake living standard.
(2) The article analyzes the determinants on rural households' coping strategies in earthquake-stricken areas by binary logistic model.The main factors of rural households' coping strategies are:place,age,education,family size,economic status,losses.And dissaving was positively correlated with age and household income;loans between relatives and friends were negatively correlated with family size and income;bank loans were negatively correlated with age,positively with the overall loss;migrant working was negatively correlated with the education,positively with the overall losses.
(3) Through the statistical analysis of post-disaster rural households' consumption behavior,the family characteristics of rural households do not have a significant impact on consumption behavior.The greater the losses suffered by farmers,the more inclined to increase expense.As for coping strategy,their own savings have been unable to deal with the losses;rural household have to seek outside help such as loans or transfers from relatives and friends and bank loans.Bank loans are the preferred strategy of the majority of farmers.The reason is that because the earthquake damaged systematically the whole community and the wider region outside the community,the majority of farmers,their relatives and friends have been seriously affected.Risk hasn't resolved and transferred in the extended family and the communities,and the internal strategy of rural household has basically failed.They can only rely on formal financial institutions.However,if farmers can receive help from relatives and friends,the effect of loans from relatives and friends is superior to bank loans because bank loans will undoubtedly increase the debt burden of farmers,which is only a substitute alternative without loans from relatives and friends.
本文在综合评述国内外灾害经济和风险管理理论的基础上,选取四川省5个重灾县的450户农户家庭为研究对象,对其地震的直接经济损失进行合理估算,并在此基础上,尝试运用主成分分析对其灾害承受能力进行评价;接着,基于二元logistic模型分析农户的地震经济损失、个体特征和经济状况对农户采取不同应对策略的影响;最后考察这些因素和策略对震后农户家庭的消费行为影响,并为当前和今后的应对自然灾害和构建正规社会安全保障网提出相关建议。本文通过这几部分研究,得出以下几点结论:
(1)地震灾害给农户造成了严重的经济损失,其损失额度相对于农户家庭收入过高,极有可能使农户陷入贫困的深渊。汶川大地震造成农户平均财产损失额度为46464元,其中有房屋倒塌的农户平均损失为59470元,而灾区农户家庭平均年收入只有16140元。如果没有政府的救助,即使农户家庭不吃不喝,也得需要2或3年的时间才能恢复到震前的生活水平。
(2)为了分析地震灾区农户应对策略选择的影响因素,本文通过构建二元logistic模型进行了相应研究。影响农户应对策略的主要因素有:区域、年龄、教育年限、家庭规模、经济状况、损失状况等因素。其中动用储蓄与年龄、家庭收入呈显著正相关;亲友间借贷与家庭规模、收入呈显著负相关;银行贷款与年龄呈显著负相关,与总体损失成正相关;外出打工与教育程度呈显著负相关,与总损失成正相关。
(3)通过对灾后农户消费行为变化的研究分析,农户的家庭特征对震后消费行为并不具有显著的影响。农户家庭遭受的损失越大,农户震后越倾向于增加开支。在采取的策略上,自身的储蓄已经无法满足,必须寻求外界帮助如亲友借贷和银行贷款。银行贷款是大多数农户应灾策略的首选,原因在于地震造成整个社区以及社区以外广大区域都受到严重的系统性破坏,大多数农户及其亲友都遭受严重影响。风险已经不能在扩大的家庭甚至社区外化解和转移,农户的内部策略已经基本失效,只能依靠正式的金融机构。但如果农户可以从亲友处获得帮助,亲友借贷的效果要优于银行贷款,因为银行贷款无疑会增加农户债务负担,是在无法获得亲友借贷后的替代选择。
"5.12" Wenchuan earthquake is since the founding of the People's Republic of China the most devastating and the largest scope of an earthquake,resulting in heavy casualties,housing collapse,traffic disruption,schools,hospitals and other infrastructures severely damaged,severely affecting the normal production and living of farmers.Especially in rural areas with poor infrastructure and weak capacity against the risks,when a huge earthquake disaster happens,the rural households due to the lack of formal risk management institutional arrangements and risk management tools,are extremely vulnerable to the adverse impact and influence of the seismic hazard,which will lead to the problems of poverty and education,medical and health issues and problems of agricultural production inputs so on.Government assistance in relation to losses suffered by rural households can only be a drop in the bucket.The vulnerable rural households have to develop various strategies to enhance self-protection and reduce the impact on their own livelihoods.Therefore scientifically assessing the economic losses and the impact of the rural households and observing various coping strategies the rural households adapted have a positive significance for current and future post-disaster relief, reconstruction and economic development.
On the basis of a comprehensive review of domestic and international disasters economics and risk management theory,the paper selects 450 rural households from 5 earthquake-stricken counties in Sichuan Province for the study,reasonably estimates their earthquake direct economic losses,and on this basis,tries to use principal component analysis to evaluate the capacity against disaster;Secondly,by describing the economic losses by earthquake,individual characteristics and economic situation,the paper based on the binary logistic model analyses and concludes different determinants of different coping strategies of rural households;Thirdly,the paper analyses these factors' impacts on post-disaster consumption behavior,and puts forward some suggestions for currently and in future coping with natural disasters and building formal social security network.In this paper,the following conclusions are drawn:
(1) The earthquake caused severe economic losses,the amount of which is too high relative to the family income.It is highly possible to make farmers into the poverty trap. In Wenchuan earthquake the average amount of rural households' property losses adds up to 46,464yuan,especially which toppling the house is 59,470yuan,while the average annual income of rural households in earthquake-stricken areas is only 16,140yuan. Without government assistance,even if the rural household doesn't eat and drink,they also have to spend 2 or 3 years in order to return to pre-earthquake living standard.
(2) The article analyzes the determinants on rural households' coping strategies in earthquake-stricken areas by binary logistic model.The main factors of rural households' coping strategies are:place,age,education,family size,economic status,losses.And dissaving was positively correlated with age and household income;loans between relatives and friends were negatively correlated with family size and income;bank loans were negatively correlated with age,positively with the overall loss;migrant working was negatively correlated with the education,positively with the overall losses.
(3) Through the statistical analysis of post-disaster rural households' consumption behavior,the family characteristics of rural households do not have a significant impact on consumption behavior.The greater the losses suffered by farmers,the more inclined to increase expense.As for coping strategy,their own savings have been unable to deal with the losses;rural household have to seek outside help such as loans or transfers from relatives and friends and bank loans.Bank loans are the preferred strategy of the majority of farmers.The reason is that because the earthquake damaged systematically the whole community and the wider region outside the community,the majority of farmers,their relatives and friends have been seriously affected.Risk hasn't resolved and transferred in the extended family and the communities,and the internal strategy of rural household has basically failed.They can only rely on formal financial institutions.However,if farmers can receive help from relatives and friends,the effect of loans from relatives and friends is superior to bank loans because bank loans will undoubtedly increase the debt burden of farmers,which is only a substitute alternative without loans from relatives and friends.
引文
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