江川县环境与经济系统SD模型研究
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摘要
随着当代工业化进程的加快和城市规模的不断扩大,区域环境污染、生态破坏、资源耗竭等已发展演变成为全球性的重大问题,引起有关国际组织、政府及国内外众多学者的高度重视与关注,并形成了专门以此为研究对象的新学科——可持续发展学。其中,关于区域资源、环境、经济发展及其相互关系既是可持续发展学研究的重点内容,亦成为诸如区域经济学、经济地理学、生态经济学等相关学科研究的热点问题。西南喀斯特地区既是大江大河的水源涵养与生态脆弱的耦合区,又是地形隆起与经济低谷的迭加区,也是资源富集与贫困人口的重叠区,其持续发展关系到国家区域发展平衡、经济繁荣及社会稳定等诸多问题,具有极其重要的现实意义。
本文将主成分分析方法和系统动力学方法应用于江川县环境经济系统协调发展的研究。首先阐明研究的目的和意义并对相关理论加以综述,归纳分析了国内外可持续发展的研究进展;接着运用主成分分析方法,测算出区域协调度,动态定量评价研究区生态环境与经济发展协调状况;在此基础上,以系统动力学理论、方法、模型为主要框架,综合运用回归分析等方法,使用SD建模软件Vensim,建立了江川县环境与经济系统仿真模型,并进行仿真;最后结合江川县环境与经济的预测分析,探寻了相应的发展机制与模式,提出具有可操作性的对策建议。通过研究得出以下几点结论:
(1)运用主成分分析法对江川县生态环境与经济发展现状作出评价。生态环境综合评价结果表明:江川县2000-2005年间,生态环境整体呈现转好趋势,2005年后,呈现逐渐下降趋势;经济发展综合评价结果显示:2000-2007年江川县经济发展一直保持上升趋势,其综合得分由2000年的-3.0075上升到2007年的4.1619,2003年后,经济增长速度较快。
(2)江川县生态环境与经济发展协调度(C_v)评价结果显示,江川县2000-2007年间协调度波动性较大。大致可分三个阶段:2000-2002年间,协调度不断下降;2002-2005年间逐步回升,但2002-2004年间协调度较低,均低于0.4,表明此期间协调状态较差;2005年后又表现出下降的趋势。
(3)本文将SD方法应用于江川县生态与经济系统研究,通过仿真模拟,设计了四个仿真方案:自然发展模式、人口经济快速增长模式、环境与经济协调发展模式、环境保护模式。其中环境与经济协调发展模式确定为今后江川县环境与经济的发展方向,因为这个方案中的环境与经济是协调发展的,按照这个方案,江川县环境与经济的未来发展是可持续的。在此方案下,人口自然增长率为0.005、工业增长率为0.24,环保投资系数为0.04、耕地面积变化率为-0.006。
(4)针对系统仿真模拟的分析结果,提出了江川县未来发展的政策建议。目前江川县的自然发展模式的经济增长是建立在区域环境污染的基础上,要促使区域环境经济协调发展,需要政府对区域环境经济进行宏观调控,实施“一湖三圈”污染防治工程,并要加大区域环保投资,进行合理的区域规划与空间管治,以推进区域环境经济协调发展。
With the rapid development between the process of industrialization and the expansion of urbanization at the contemporary era,environmental pollution,ecological damage,exhaust of natural resources have been become the global and the important issues,it attaches recognition and attention of the relevant international organizations,governments and many scholars both inside and outside the world,and form a special study on this new subject-Sustainable Development.On the regional resources,environment,economic development and the relationship are already both the focus contents in the study of the sustainable development and the hot issues among the correlative studies such as regional economics,economic geography,ecological economics and so on.The Karst region in the southwest is not only the rivers water conservation and ecologically vulnerable areas of coupling,but also the bottom topography and economic uplift of the superposition zone,is also an enrichment region of resources and poverty as well,which the sustainable development relations to the national balance of regional development,economic prosperity and social stability,and many other issues,so,it has an extremely important practical significance.
It is studied by the principal component analysis and system dynamics in Coordinate development of environment and economic system in Jiangchuan County.Firstly,it clarifies the purpose and significance of the study and reviewed the relevant theories;Secondly,Using principal component analysis to calculate the regional coordination degree,evaluate the coordinated development level between environment and economy in this area.Based on the evaluation,the environment and economic system's model is built by system dynamics' theories and method.It is assisted with some other methods,such as Regression analysis.With the appropriative software of Vensim,the model can be built successfully.With the model's simulations,the modes and the suggestions are put forward of environment and economy in Jiangchuan County.Through the study, we can get some conclusions as follows:
(1) Using principal component analysis,we can get to know the present condition of Ecological Environment and economic system in Jiangchuan County.The results of Comprehensive evaluation about the ecological environment show that:between 2000 and 2005, the ecological environment in Jiangchuan has improved;after 2005,the results show being worse.The comprehensive evaluation of economic development shows that:between 2000 and 2007,the economic development of Jiangchuan has maintained an upward trend,the comprehensive score rose to 4.1619 in 2007 form -3.0075 in 2000,and especially the economic growth is obvious after 2003.
(2) The results of the evaluation about the ecological environment and economic(C_v) showed that between 2000 and 2007,the coordination degree of ecological environment and economic in Jiangchuan is Instability.The coordination degree is becoming low form 2000 to 2002,and which is opposite between 2002 and 2005.The coordination degree is lower than 0.4 between 2002 and 2004,indicating that the coordination of the state is poor during this time. The coordination degree is becoming low after 2005.
(3) The paper analyzes the environmental and economical system with the SD method. Through the simulation,we design four different development schemes----the natural develop model,the rapid growth of population and economic model,the coordinate development of environment and economy model,the environment protection model.At last,we choose the third model as the direction of Jiangchuan County in the future.Because this model can coordinate environmental and economic development,in accordance with the model,the environment and the economy in Jiangchuan is sustainable in future.In this model,the natural population growth rate is 0.005,the industrial growth rate is 0.23,the coefficient of environmental protection investment is 0.04,and the change rate of cultivated land is -0.006.
(4) Based on the simulation,we put forward some suggestions.At present,the economic growth in the natural development model is at the cost of environmental pollution.To promote the coordinated development between environment and the economy,the government should take some acations,such as,implementing "One lake three circle layer" projects,increasing environmental protection investment and carrying out regional planning and governance of space.
本文将主成分分析方法和系统动力学方法应用于江川县环境经济系统协调发展的研究。首先阐明研究的目的和意义并对相关理论加以综述,归纳分析了国内外可持续发展的研究进展;接着运用主成分分析方法,测算出区域协调度,动态定量评价研究区生态环境与经济发展协调状况;在此基础上,以系统动力学理论、方法、模型为主要框架,综合运用回归分析等方法,使用SD建模软件Vensim,建立了江川县环境与经济系统仿真模型,并进行仿真;最后结合江川县环境与经济的预测分析,探寻了相应的发展机制与模式,提出具有可操作性的对策建议。通过研究得出以下几点结论:
(1)运用主成分分析法对江川县生态环境与经济发展现状作出评价。生态环境综合评价结果表明:江川县2000-2005年间,生态环境整体呈现转好趋势,2005年后,呈现逐渐下降趋势;经济发展综合评价结果显示:2000-2007年江川县经济发展一直保持上升趋势,其综合得分由2000年的-3.0075上升到2007年的4.1619,2003年后,经济增长速度较快。
(2)江川县生态环境与经济发展协调度(C_v)评价结果显示,江川县2000-2007年间协调度波动性较大。大致可分三个阶段:2000-2002年间,协调度不断下降;2002-2005年间逐步回升,但2002-2004年间协调度较低,均低于0.4,表明此期间协调状态较差;2005年后又表现出下降的趋势。
(3)本文将SD方法应用于江川县生态与经济系统研究,通过仿真模拟,设计了四个仿真方案:自然发展模式、人口经济快速增长模式、环境与经济协调发展模式、环境保护模式。其中环境与经济协调发展模式确定为今后江川县环境与经济的发展方向,因为这个方案中的环境与经济是协调发展的,按照这个方案,江川县环境与经济的未来发展是可持续的。在此方案下,人口自然增长率为0.005、工业增长率为0.24,环保投资系数为0.04、耕地面积变化率为-0.006。
(4)针对系统仿真模拟的分析结果,提出了江川县未来发展的政策建议。目前江川县的自然发展模式的经济增长是建立在区域环境污染的基础上,要促使区域环境经济协调发展,需要政府对区域环境经济进行宏观调控,实施“一湖三圈”污染防治工程,并要加大区域环保投资,进行合理的区域规划与空间管治,以推进区域环境经济协调发展。
With the rapid development between the process of industrialization and the expansion of urbanization at the contemporary era,environmental pollution,ecological damage,exhaust of natural resources have been become the global and the important issues,it attaches recognition and attention of the relevant international organizations,governments and many scholars both inside and outside the world,and form a special study on this new subject-Sustainable Development.On the regional resources,environment,economic development and the relationship are already both the focus contents in the study of the sustainable development and the hot issues among the correlative studies such as regional economics,economic geography,ecological economics and so on.The Karst region in the southwest is not only the rivers water conservation and ecologically vulnerable areas of coupling,but also the bottom topography and economic uplift of the superposition zone,is also an enrichment region of resources and poverty as well,which the sustainable development relations to the national balance of regional development,economic prosperity and social stability,and many other issues,so,it has an extremely important practical significance.
It is studied by the principal component analysis and system dynamics in Coordinate development of environment and economic system in Jiangchuan County.Firstly,it clarifies the purpose and significance of the study and reviewed the relevant theories;Secondly,Using principal component analysis to calculate the regional coordination degree,evaluate the coordinated development level between environment and economy in this area.Based on the evaluation,the environment and economic system's model is built by system dynamics' theories and method.It is assisted with some other methods,such as Regression analysis.With the appropriative software of Vensim,the model can be built successfully.With the model's simulations,the modes and the suggestions are put forward of environment and economy in Jiangchuan County.Through the study, we can get some conclusions as follows:
(1) Using principal component analysis,we can get to know the present condition of Ecological Environment and economic system in Jiangchuan County.The results of Comprehensive evaluation about the ecological environment show that:between 2000 and 2005, the ecological environment in Jiangchuan has improved;after 2005,the results show being worse.The comprehensive evaluation of economic development shows that:between 2000 and 2007,the economic development of Jiangchuan has maintained an upward trend,the comprehensive score rose to 4.1619 in 2007 form -3.0075 in 2000,and especially the economic growth is obvious after 2003.
(2) The results of the evaluation about the ecological environment and economic(C_v) showed that between 2000 and 2007,the coordination degree of ecological environment and economic in Jiangchuan is Instability.The coordination degree is becoming low form 2000 to 2002,and which is opposite between 2002 and 2005.The coordination degree is lower than 0.4 between 2002 and 2004,indicating that the coordination of the state is poor during this time. The coordination degree is becoming low after 2005.
(3) The paper analyzes the environmental and economical system with the SD method. Through the simulation,we design four different development schemes----the natural develop model,the rapid growth of population and economic model,the coordinate development of environment and economy model,the environment protection model.At last,we choose the third model as the direction of Jiangchuan County in the future.Because this model can coordinate environmental and economic development,in accordance with the model,the environment and the economy in Jiangchuan is sustainable in future.In this model,the natural population growth rate is 0.005,the industrial growth rate is 0.23,the coefficient of environmental protection investment is 0.04,and the change rate of cultivated land is -0.006.
(4) Based on the simulation,we put forward some suggestions.At present,the economic growth in the natural development model is at the cost of environmental pollution.To promote the coordinated development between environment and the economy,the government should take some acations,such as,implementing "One lake three circle layer" projects,increasing environmental protection investment and carrying out regional planning and governance of space.
引文
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