基于DEA的铁路对区域社会经济影响效率评价
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摘要
铁路作为主要的交通运输方式之一,在区域社会经济发展中扮演着重要角色。各地区由于社会结构、人口数量和资源配置等不同,对铁路的需求各异。另一方面,铁路对不同地区所产生的影响程度也是不同的。研究铁路对区域社会经济发展的影响效率对于路网规划和铁路建设运营,以及区域社会经济发展有着重要意义。
本文分析了国内外文献关于铁路对社会经济的影响因素,结合文献研究法、信度分析法和相关性分析法从社会、经济、资源和环境四个子系统建立了铁路对社会经济影响的指标评价体系,最后通过数据包络分析法(DEA),利用京沪铁路沿线区域四省三市2000-2010年的数据进行实证分析,计算铁路对社会经济各个系统的影响效率值和综合影响效率值。本文主要的研究工作是：(1)以DEA方法研究铁路对区域社会经济的影响效率具有一定的适用性。以京沪铁路沿线区域四省三市作为实证分析的研究对象,将构建的评价体系和模型运用到京沪铁路的实际问题分析上得到有用的结论。(2)构建的铁路对社会经济影响指标评价体系可以应用于实践。结合文献研究法、信度分析法和相关性分析法逐层构建的铁路对社会经济影响指标评价体系在京沪铁路沿线对区域社会经济的影响分析中得以应用。(3)通过实证分析,将京沪铁路沿线地区的铁路对社会经济发展的影响效率划分为三个层次,第一层次为上海和北京,第二层次为江苏、山东和天津,第三层次为河北和安徽；从铁路对区域社会经济影响效率来看,铁路对社会经济发展程度较高和发展速度较快的地区影响效率较高；铁路指标增量的影响要超过存量的影响效率。
图9幅,表12个,参考文献51篇。
Railway is one of the main means of transportation, plays an important role in the regional socio-economic development. In order to achieve the goal of building a moderately prosperous society and adapt to rapid economic development, railway's construction and operation is highly valued by administration. Due to various social structure, population and resource allocation, different regions of China have various demand of railway, and also railway's effect on the different regions have different extents. Therefore, to evaluate the railway's impact efficiency is conducive to the plan of the railway's network, construction and operation, thus contributing to regional social and economic development.
First, the paper analyzes the factors of railway impact on the socio-economic based on the review of domestic and foreign research; second, according to the study of literature, we divide this complex socio-economic system into four subsystems: Society, Economy, Resource, Environment, and establish respectively the index evaluation system for each subsystem; finally, we use the DEAP software to complete the calculation of DEA model. This paper calculates separately the impact efficiency of the railway mileage, passenger capacity, freight capacity and railway's structure affect each subsystem. We use the subjective weighting method to empower weight to each subsystem, and then we calculate their weighted average efficiency, which is treated as the comprehensive efficiency. The main work obtained in this study is:(1) To explore the railway's impact efficiency on regional socio-economic. The paper establishes the index evaluation system and selects the Data Envelopment Analysis evaluation model, choosing the regions along Beijing-Shanghai railway, and then applies the index and method to the analysis of the practical problems.(2) To build an applicability index evaluation system. We use Literature Analysis, Reliability Analysis and Correlation Analysis to build the railway evaluation system of socio-economic impact indicators.(3) According to the empirical results, the main conclusions of this paper are:The technical efficiency values can be divided into three levels:The first level is Shanghai and Beijing; the second level is Jiangsu, Shandong and Tianjin; the third level is Hebei and Anhui. By the railway's impact efficiency on the regional socio-economic, the higher level of economic development and faster pace of development, the higher efficiency. In addition, railway's increment efficiency is higher than railway's stock efficiency.
本文分析了国内外文献关于铁路对社会经济的影响因素,结合文献研究法、信度分析法和相关性分析法从社会、经济、资源和环境四个子系统建立了铁路对社会经济影响的指标评价体系,最后通过数据包络分析法(DEA),利用京沪铁路沿线区域四省三市2000-2010年的数据进行实证分析,计算铁路对社会经济各个系统的影响效率值和综合影响效率值。本文主要的研究工作是：(1)以DEA方法研究铁路对区域社会经济的影响效率具有一定的适用性。以京沪铁路沿线区域四省三市作为实证分析的研究对象,将构建的评价体系和模型运用到京沪铁路的实际问题分析上得到有用的结论。(2)构建的铁路对社会经济影响指标评价体系可以应用于实践。结合文献研究法、信度分析法和相关性分析法逐层构建的铁路对社会经济影响指标评价体系在京沪铁路沿线对区域社会经济的影响分析中得以应用。(3)通过实证分析,将京沪铁路沿线地区的铁路对社会经济发展的影响效率划分为三个层次,第一层次为上海和北京,第二层次为江苏、山东和天津,第三层次为河北和安徽；从铁路对区域社会经济影响效率来看,铁路对社会经济发展程度较高和发展速度较快的地区影响效率较高；铁路指标增量的影响要超过存量的影响效率。
图9幅,表12个,参考文献51篇。
Railway is one of the main means of transportation, plays an important role in the regional socio-economic development. In order to achieve the goal of building a moderately prosperous society and adapt to rapid economic development, railway's construction and operation is highly valued by administration. Due to various social structure, population and resource allocation, different regions of China have various demand of railway, and also railway's effect on the different regions have different extents. Therefore, to evaluate the railway's impact efficiency is conducive to the plan of the railway's network, construction and operation, thus contributing to regional social and economic development.
First, the paper analyzes the factors of railway impact on the socio-economic based on the review of domestic and foreign research; second, according to the study of literature, we divide this complex socio-economic system into four subsystems: Society, Economy, Resource, Environment, and establish respectively the index evaluation system for each subsystem; finally, we use the DEAP software to complete the calculation of DEA model. This paper calculates separately the impact efficiency of the railway mileage, passenger capacity, freight capacity and railway's structure affect each subsystem. We use the subjective weighting method to empower weight to each subsystem, and then we calculate their weighted average efficiency, which is treated as the comprehensive efficiency. The main work obtained in this study is:(1) To explore the railway's impact efficiency on regional socio-economic. The paper establishes the index evaluation system and selects the Data Envelopment Analysis evaluation model, choosing the regions along Beijing-Shanghai railway, and then applies the index and method to the analysis of the practical problems.(2) To build an applicability index evaluation system. We use Literature Analysis, Reliability Analysis and Correlation Analysis to build the railway evaluation system of socio-economic impact indicators.(3) According to the empirical results, the main conclusions of this paper are:The technical efficiency values can be divided into three levels:The first level is Shanghai and Beijing; the second level is Jiangsu, Shandong and Tianjin; the third level is Hebei and Anhui. By the railway's impact efficiency on the regional socio-economic, the higher level of economic development and faster pace of development, the higher efficiency. In addition, railway's increment efficiency is higher than railway's stock efficiency.
引文
1胡华增.基于TMS320C6722平台的改进TVM430信号的研究与实现[D].北京：北京交通大学,2010
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[3]Kingsley E Haynes. Labor Markets and Regional Transportation Improvements: the Case of High speed Trains [J].The Annals of Regional Science, 1997, 31(1):57-76
[4]Kajal Lahiria, Vincent Wenxiong Yao. Economic Indicators for the US Transportation Sector [J].Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice,2006, 11(10):872-887
[5]Komei Sasaki, Tadahiro Ohashi, Asao Ando. High-speed Rail Transit Impact on Regional Systems:Does the Shinkansen Contribute to Dispersion? [J].The Annals of Regional Science, 1997, 31(1):77-98
[6]Chaug Ing Hsu, Wen Ming Chung. A Model for Market Share Distribution between High-speed and Conventional Rail Services in a Transportation Corridor [J].The Annals of Regional Science,1997,31(2):121-153
[7]Javier Gutierrez. Location, economic potential and daily accessibility: an analysis of the accessibility impact of the high-speed line Madrid-Barcelona-French border [J].Journal of Transport Geography, 2001,9(4):229-242
[8]Mirjan E. Bouwman, Henri C. Moll. Environmental Analyses of Land Transportation Systems in The Netherlands [J].Transportation Research Part D:Transport and Environment, 2002, 9(5):331-345
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[28]武旭,胡思继,崔艳萍,马叶江.铁路运输与社会经济协调发展评价问题的研究[J].铁道学报,2005(6)：20-25
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[32]梁蓉.湖南省湘黔铁路沿线样带经济梯度格局及其影响因素研究[D].长沙：湖南师范大学,2008
[33]冯芬玲,朱磊,郭玉华,袁任.我国铁路建设与经济增长的关系[J].铁道科学与工程学报,2010,2(1)：79-83
[34]刘似臣,胡迪.城际铁路对京津两地经济引力的影响[J].中国统计,2010(4)：47-48
[35]胡辉,习勤.江西省铁路运输与经济发展的协调关系研究[J].企业经济,2011(6)：134-137
[36]王会宗.交通运输与区域经济增长差异——以中国铁路为例的实证分析[J].山西财经大学学报,2011(2)：61-68
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[1]Blum U, Haynes K E, Karlsson C. Introduction to the Special Issue: The Regional and Urban Effects of High-speed Trains [J].The Annals of Regional Science, 1997, 31(1):1-20
[2]Kiyoshi Kobayashi, Makoto Okumura. The Growth of City Systems with High-speed Railway Systems [J].The Annals of Regional Science, 1997, 31(1):39-56
[3]Kingsley E Haynes. Labor Markets and Regional Transportation Improvements: the Case of High speed Trains [J].The Annals of Regional Science, 1997, 31(1):57-76
[4]Kajal Lahiria, Vincent Wenxiong Yao. Economic Indicators for the US Transportation Sector [J].Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice,2006, 11(10):872-887
[5]Komei Sasaki, Tadahiro Ohashi, Asao Ando. High-speed Rail Transit Impact on Regional Systems:Does the Shinkansen Contribute to Dispersion? [J].The Annals of Regional Science, 1997, 31(1):77-98
[6]Chaug Ing Hsu, Wen Ming Chung. A Model for Market Share Distribution between High-speed and Conventional Rail Services in a Transportation Corridor [J].The Annals of Regional Science,1997,31(2):121-153
[7]Javier Gutierrez. Location, economic potential and daily accessibility: an analysis of the accessibility impact of the high-speed line Madrid-Barcelona-French border [J].Journal of Transport Geography, 2001,9(4):229-242
[8]Mirjan E. Bouwman, Henri C. Moll. Environmental Analyses of Land Transportation Systems in The Netherlands [J].Transportation Research Part D:Transport and Environment, 2002, 9(5):331-345
[9]A. Azadeh, S.F. Ghaderi, H. Izadbakhsh. Integration of DEA and AHP with Computer Simulation for Railway System Improvement and Optimization [J].Applied Mathematics and Computation, 2008(195):775-785
[10]Ming-Min Yu. Assessing the Technical Efficiency, Service Effectiveness, and Technical Effectiveness of the World's Railways Through NDEA Analysis [J].Transportation Research Part A, 2008(42):1283-1294
[11]Priyanka Jain, Sharon Cullinane, Kevin Cullinane. The Impact of Governance Development Models on Urban Rail Efficiency [J].Transportation Research Part A, 2008(42):1238-1250
[12]Daniel J. Graham. Productivity and Efficiency in Urban Railways:Parametric and Non-parametric Estimates [J].Transportation Research Part E, 2008(44):84-99
[13]Toshiya Jitsuzumi, Akihiro Nakamura. Causes of inefficiency in Japanese Railways: Application of DEA for Managers and Policymakers [J].Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 2010(44):161-173
[14]Wolfgang Zapf. Applied Social Reporting:A Social Indicators System for West German Society [J].Social Indicators Research,1979(6): 397-419
[15]H. Bellen, C.Van Herbruggen. Evaluating the Quality of Life in Belgium [J].Social Indicators Research,1980(8):311-326
[16]Jeroen Boelhouwer. Quality of Life and Living Conditions in the Netherlands [J].Social Indicators Research,2002(58):115-140
[17]胡天军,申金升.京沪高速铁路对沿线经济发展的影响分析[J].经济地理,1999(10)：101-104
[18]赵娟,林晓言.京津城际铁路区域经济影响评价[J].铁道运输与经济,2010(1)：11-15
[19]郭文军,曾学贵.高速铁路对交通运输实现可持续发展的重要意义[J].中国铁路,2000(3)：25-27
[20]朱华友,郭红.京沪铁路对宿州市经济结构发展的时空影响[J].哈尔滨学院学报,2001(6)：14-17
[21]黄润,葛向东,杨本俊,李传武.宁西铁路的开通与沿线区域经济发展[J].资源开发与市场,2004,20(6)：436-437
[22]张楠楠,徐逸伦.高速铁路对沿线区域发展的影响研究[J].地域研究与开发,2005,24(3)：32-36
[23]郭雪萌.京沪高速铁路建设对我国经济发展的影响[J].综合运输,2006(8-9)：37-41
[24]孙婷.高速铁路对城市发展的影响[J].现代城市研究,2008,23(7)：82-87
[25]张萃.高速铁路对城镇体系发展影响的研究——以建设中的京沪高铁为例[D].天津：南开大学,2009
[26]蔡晓蕾.京九铁路对沿线地区社会经济发展影响的综合评价[J].交通科技与经济,2004(3)：57-59,69
[27]孙永福.京九铁路对客货运输及经济发展的重要作用[J].中国铁路,2005(3)：11-15
[28]武旭,胡思继,崔艳萍,马叶江.铁路运输与社会经济协调发展评价问题的研究[J].铁道学报,2005(6)：20-25
[29]赵嘉.铁路对都市圈社会经济影响评价研究——以京津冀都市圈为例[D].北京：北京交通大学,2009
[30]余沛,杜文,池茂儒.铁路运输与区域经济系统相关性与协调性定量评价[J1.铁道运输与经济,2010(2)：14-17
[31]白云峰.高速铁路对区域社会经济发展影响研究——以京津城际铁路为例[D].北京：北京交通大学,2010
[32]梁蓉.湖南省湘黔铁路沿线样带经济梯度格局及其影响因素研究[D].长沙：湖南师范大学,2008
[33]冯芬玲,朱磊,郭玉华,袁任.我国铁路建设与经济增长的关系[J].铁道科学与工程学报,2010,2(1)：79-83
[34]刘似臣,胡迪.城际铁路对京津两地经济引力的影响[J].中国统计,2010(4)：47-48
[35]胡辉,习勤.江西省铁路运输与经济发展的协调关系研究[J].企业经济,2011(6)：134-137
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