培训的就业效应和收入效应
摘要
在劳动力市场中，培训作为人力资本投资形式，一直是劳动经济学研究的课题之一。目前，由于微观数据的匮乏，关于中国劳动力市场中培训对就业和收入影响问题的研究相对较少。本文基于就业方程、工资方程和倾向分匹配法，应用微观经济计量方法，对全国城乡居民培训的决定因素及培训的就业效应和收入效应进行了系统的分析。
本文首先应用logit模型对培训的决定影响因素进行回归估计。估计结果表明，年龄、教育程度、工作经验、拥有的技术等级、签订的劳动合同年限等变量，对劳动力个体参加培训的概率都有显著影响。其次本文把培训作为一个二值选择的虚拟变量引入就业方程，然后对培训的就业方程进行回归分析。估计结果表明，培训对就业有积极的促进作用，其中参加培训个体比未参加培训个体的就业概率要高出6个百分点。
最后，应用工资方程分析了培训对劳动力收入的影响。估计结果表明，培训对个体收入具有正向效应。应用倾向分匹配法对劳动力个体培训收入效应进行再次估计。估计结果表明，在男性劳动力市场中，参加过培训的劳动力月收入可以增加160元，而在女性劳动力市场中，参加过培训的个体月收入可以增加142元。
本文的研究结果加深了我们对中国城镇劳动力市场运行规律的理解，有助于政府部门培训政策的评价与设计。
In the labor market, training as a form of human capital investment, has beenone of the topics of labor economics research. At present, due to the lack of microdata, the study of influence is relatively rare, which is about training effect onemployment and income in the labor market of China. Based on the employmentequation, the wage equation and tendency points matching method, themicro-econometric methods is applied to analysis the determinants of training in2006urban and rural residents, employment effects of training and income effects oftraining with the system method.
Firstly, the logit model is applied to estimate the influence factors to training.Estimation results show that the variables, such as age, education level, workexperience, technology level, and the fixed number of year to sign labor contract,have notable effect on the probability about individual labor force to participate intraining.
Secondly, the training as a binary choice of virtual variable is introduced toemployment equation. Through the regression estimation equation of employment,the estimation results show that training have a positive influence on employment.And the employment probability of attend training individual is higher than did notattend training individual by6%.
Finally, the wage equation is applied to analysis the influence of training to laborincome. Results show that training has positive effect on individual income. So thetendency points matching method is used to estimates for labor individual trainingincome effect again. The results show that, in men labor market, month income maybe an increase of160yuan for participates in the training of the labor force, while thenumber is142yuan in the women labor market.
The results of the study have deepened our understanding about market operation rule about our China urban labor market, and give help to evaluate anddesign the training policy in government department.
本文首先应用logit模型对培训的决定影响因素进行回归估计。估计结果表明，年龄、教育程度、工作经验、拥有的技术等级、签订的劳动合同年限等变量，对劳动力个体参加培训的概率都有显著影响。其次本文把培训作为一个二值选择的虚拟变量引入就业方程，然后对培训的就业方程进行回归分析。估计结果表明，培训对就业有积极的促进作用，其中参加培训个体比未参加培训个体的就业概率要高出6个百分点。
最后，应用工资方程分析了培训对劳动力收入的影响。估计结果表明，培训对个体收入具有正向效应。应用倾向分匹配法对劳动力个体培训收入效应进行再次估计。估计结果表明，在男性劳动力市场中，参加过培训的劳动力月收入可以增加160元，而在女性劳动力市场中，参加过培训的个体月收入可以增加142元。
本文的研究结果加深了我们对中国城镇劳动力市场运行规律的理解，有助于政府部门培训政策的评价与设计。
In the labor market, training as a form of human capital investment, has beenone of the topics of labor economics research. At present, due to the lack of microdata, the study of influence is relatively rare, which is about training effect onemployment and income in the labor market of China. Based on the employmentequation, the wage equation and tendency points matching method, themicro-econometric methods is applied to analysis the determinants of training in2006urban and rural residents, employment effects of training and income effects oftraining with the system method.
Firstly, the logit model is applied to estimate the influence factors to training.Estimation results show that the variables, such as age, education level, workexperience, technology level, and the fixed number of year to sign labor contract,have notable effect on the probability about individual labor force to participate intraining.
Secondly, the training as a binary choice of virtual variable is introduced toemployment equation. Through the regression estimation equation of employment,the estimation results show that training have a positive influence on employment.And the employment probability of attend training individual is higher than did notattend training individual by6%.
Finally, the wage equation is applied to analysis the influence of training to laborincome. Results show that training has positive effect on individual income. So thetendency points matching method is used to estimates for labor individual trainingincome effect again. The results show that, in men labor market, month income maybe an increase of160yuan for participates in the training of the labor force, while thenumber is142yuan in the women labor market.
The results of the study have deepened our understanding about market operation rule about our China urban labor market, and give help to evaluate anddesign the training policy in government department.
引文
[1] ABADIE A，ANGRIST J，IMBENS G. Instrumental Variables Estimates ofthe Effect of Subsidized Training on the Quantiles of Trainee Earnings[J].Econometrica，2002，70(1):91-117.
[2] ACEMOGLU D，PISCHEKE J. Beyond Becker: Training in ImperfectLabour Markets[J].Economic Journal，1999，109:112-142.
[3] AMEMIYA T. Regression Analysis When the Dependent Variable isTruncated Normal[J].Econometrica，1973，41:997-1016.
[4] ANGRIST J，KRUEGER A. Instrumental Variables and the Search forIdentification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments[J]. The Journal ofEconomic Perspectives，2001,15(4):69-85.
[5] BARRETT A，O'CONNELL P. Does Training Generally Work? The Returnsto In-Company raining[J]. Industrial and Labor Relations Review，2001，54(3):647-662.
[6] BASSI L. Estimating the Effects of Training Programs with NonrandomSelection [J]. Review of Economics and Statistics，1984，66:36-43.
[7] BECKER G. Human Capital[M]. Chicago: University of Chicago Press forNational Bureau of Econnomic Research，1985.
[8] DAVID S. LEE. Training，Wages，and Sample Selection: Estimating SharpBounds on Treatment Effects[J]. Review of Economic Studies (2009)76，1071–1102.
[9] DEHEJIA R，WAHBA S. Causal Effects in Nonexperimental Studies:Reevaluating the Evaluation of Training Programs [J]. American StatisticalAssociation，1999，94:1053-1062.
[10] DOLTON P，MAKEPEACE G，TREBLE G. The Youth Training Schemeand the School-to-Work Transition[J]. Oxford Economic Papers，New Series，1994，46(4):629-657.
[11] DOUGHERTY C. Estimates of Labour Aggregation Functions [J]. Journalof Political Economy，1972，80(6):1101-1119.
[12] GREEN F，HOSKINS M，MONTGOMERY S. The Effects of CompanyTraining，Further Education and the Youth Training Scheme on the Earnings of YoungEmployees[J]. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics，1996，58:469-488.
[13] GREENHALGH C，MAVROTAS G. The Role of Career Aspirations andFinancial Constraints in Individual Access to Vocational Training[J]. OxfordEconomic Papers，1995，46:579-604.
[14] HECKMAN J，ICHIMURA H，TODD P. Matching as an EconometricEvaluation estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme [J].Review of Economic Studies，1998,65:261-294.
[15] HECKMAN J，LALONDE R，SMITH J. The Economics and Econometricsof Active Labor Market Programs[G]. ASENFELTER O，CARD D. Handbook ofLabor Economics. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science/North-Holland，1999，3:1865-2097.
[16] HOLZER H，BLOCK R，CHEATHAM M，KNOTT J. Are TrainingSubsidies for Firms Effective? The Michigan Experience[J]. Industrial and LaborRelations Review，1993，46(4):625-636.
[17] MAIN B，SHELLY M. The Effectiveness of the Youth Training Scheme as aManpower Policy[J]. Economica，1990，57(228):495-514.
[18] Rajeev H. Dehejia and Sadek Wahba. Causal Effects in NonexperimentalStudies: Reevaluating the Evaluation of Training Programs[J].Journal of theAmerican Statistical Association，1999Vol.94，No.4481053-1062.
[19] STEVENS M. Human Capital Theory and UK Vocational TrainingPolicy[J]. Oxford Review of Economic Policy，1999，15:16-32.
[20] TOBIN J. Estimation of Relationships for Limited Dependent Variables[J].Econometrica,1958，TORP H. The Impact of Training on Employment: Assessing aNorwegian Labour Market Programme[J]. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics，1994，96(4):531-550.
[21] ZHANG，J. L.，RUBIN，D. B. and MEALLI，F.“Evaluating the Effectsof Job Training Programs on Wages through Principal Stratification”，in D. Millimet，J. Smith and E. Vytlacil (eds.) Modelling and Evaluating Treatment Effects inEconometrics，2008Vol.21(Amsterdam: Elsevier)119–147.
[22] Gronau R Wage Comparisons-a Selectivity Bias [J] Journal of PoliticalEconomy，1974，(82):1119-1143.
[23] Heckman J The Common Structure of Statistical Models for Truncation，Sample Selection and Limited Dependent Variables and a Simple Estimator for suchModels [J]·Annals of Economic and Social Measurement，1976，(5):475-492.
[24] Heckman J Sample Selection Bias as Specific Error [J] Econometrica，1979，(47):152-161.
[25]冯春梅.农村女性人力资本投资对收入影响的实证研究分析[J].滁州学院学报，2010.
[26]韩靓，原新.我国农民工收入增长因素的实证研究[J].人口学刊，2009，（1）：37-43.
[27]加里·贝克尔.人力资本[M].北京：北京大学出版社，1987.
[28]侯风云．农村外出劳动力收入与人力资本状况相关性研究[J]．财经研究，2004，（4）：89-101.
[29]侯风云.中国农村人力资本收益率研究[J].经济研究，2004，（12）：75-84.
[30]侯风云.中国人力资本投资与城乡就业相关性研究[M].上海：上海三联书店、上海人民出版社，2007.
[31]卡赫克，齐尔贝尔博格.劳动经济学[M].上海：上海财经大学出版社，2007.
[32]科林·卡梅隆，普拉温·特里维迪.微观计量经济学方法与应用.[M].上海：上海财经大学出版社，2008.
[33]李湘萍.在职培训经典研究文献评述——基于在职培训研究视角、方法与发现的评述[J]，中国职业技术教育，2007(2):13-16.
[34]刘湘丽.我国企业职工培训现状分析[J]，中国工业经济，2000(7):63-67.
[35]李湘萍,赫克明.企业在职培训对员工收入增长、职业发展的影响[J].北京大学教育评论，2007，(1):150-160.
[36]刘冰.企业在职培训与农村转移劳动力的人力资本形成[D].博士学位论文，浙江大学，2009.
[37]任国强.培训对农户就业选择和收入增长的影响研究[J].中国农机化，2009（226）120-124.
[38]王广慧.人力资本投资收入效应的经验研究[D].博士学位论文，吉林大学，2009.
[39]许昆鹏.农村劳动力转移培训的投资机制研究[D].博士学位论文，浙江大学，2007.
[40]乐章，刘萍萍.人力资本与收入水平——关于外出务工农民的一个实证分析[J].中南财经政法大学学报，2007，（2）：8-13.
[41]张世伟,王广慧.培训对农民工收入的影响[J].人口与经济，2010（1）：34-38.
[42]张鹏伟，李嫣怡.STATA统计分析与应用[M].北京：电子工业出版社，2011.5.
[43]张娟.农民参加培训的支付意愿及影响因素分析——基于江苏调查数据的实证分析[J].乡镇经济，2007.
[44]郭凤鸣.中国城镇劳动力市场中性别工资差异的经验研究[D].博士学位论文，吉林大学，2011.
[45]加里·贝克尔.人力资本理论[M].郭虹等译.北京：中信出版社，2007.
[2] ACEMOGLU D，PISCHEKE J. Beyond Becker: Training in ImperfectLabour Markets[J].Economic Journal，1999，109:112-142.
[3] AMEMIYA T. Regression Analysis When the Dependent Variable isTruncated Normal[J].Econometrica，1973，41:997-1016.
[4] ANGRIST J，KRUEGER A. Instrumental Variables and the Search forIdentification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments[J]. The Journal ofEconomic Perspectives，2001,15(4):69-85.
[5] BARRETT A，O'CONNELL P. Does Training Generally Work? The Returnsto In-Company raining[J]. Industrial and Labor Relations Review，2001，54(3):647-662.
[6] BASSI L. Estimating the Effects of Training Programs with NonrandomSelection [J]. Review of Economics and Statistics，1984，66:36-43.
[7] BECKER G. Human Capital[M]. Chicago: University of Chicago Press forNational Bureau of Econnomic Research，1985.
[8] DAVID S. LEE. Training，Wages，and Sample Selection: Estimating SharpBounds on Treatment Effects[J]. Review of Economic Studies (2009)76，1071–1102.
[9] DEHEJIA R，WAHBA S. Causal Effects in Nonexperimental Studies:Reevaluating the Evaluation of Training Programs [J]. American StatisticalAssociation，1999，94:1053-1062.
[10] DOLTON P，MAKEPEACE G，TREBLE G. The Youth Training Schemeand the School-to-Work Transition[J]. Oxford Economic Papers，New Series，1994，46(4):629-657.
[11] DOUGHERTY C. Estimates of Labour Aggregation Functions [J]. Journalof Political Economy，1972，80(6):1101-1119.
[12] GREEN F，HOSKINS M，MONTGOMERY S. The Effects of CompanyTraining，Further Education and the Youth Training Scheme on the Earnings of YoungEmployees[J]. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics，1996，58:469-488.
[13] GREENHALGH C，MAVROTAS G. The Role of Career Aspirations andFinancial Constraints in Individual Access to Vocational Training[J]. OxfordEconomic Papers，1995，46:579-604.
[14] HECKMAN J，ICHIMURA H，TODD P. Matching as an EconometricEvaluation estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme [J].Review of Economic Studies，1998,65:261-294.
[15] HECKMAN J，LALONDE R，SMITH J. The Economics and Econometricsof Active Labor Market Programs[G]. ASENFELTER O，CARD D. Handbook ofLabor Economics. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science/North-Holland，1999，3:1865-2097.
[16] HOLZER H，BLOCK R，CHEATHAM M，KNOTT J. Are TrainingSubsidies for Firms Effective? The Michigan Experience[J]. Industrial and LaborRelations Review，1993，46(4):625-636.
[17] MAIN B，SHELLY M. The Effectiveness of the Youth Training Scheme as aManpower Policy[J]. Economica，1990，57(228):495-514.
[18] Rajeev H. Dehejia and Sadek Wahba. Causal Effects in NonexperimentalStudies: Reevaluating the Evaluation of Training Programs[J].Journal of theAmerican Statistical Association，1999Vol.94，No.4481053-1062.
[19] STEVENS M. Human Capital Theory and UK Vocational TrainingPolicy[J]. Oxford Review of Economic Policy，1999，15:16-32.
[20] TOBIN J. Estimation of Relationships for Limited Dependent Variables[J].Econometrica,1958，TORP H. The Impact of Training on Employment: Assessing aNorwegian Labour Market Programme[J]. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics，1994，96(4):531-550.
[21] ZHANG，J. L.，RUBIN，D. B. and MEALLI，F.“Evaluating the Effectsof Job Training Programs on Wages through Principal Stratification”，in D. Millimet，J. Smith and E. Vytlacil (eds.) Modelling and Evaluating Treatment Effects inEconometrics，2008Vol.21(Amsterdam: Elsevier)119–147.
[22] Gronau R Wage Comparisons-a Selectivity Bias [J] Journal of PoliticalEconomy，1974，(82):1119-1143.
[23] Heckman J The Common Structure of Statistical Models for Truncation，Sample Selection and Limited Dependent Variables and a Simple Estimator for suchModels [J]·Annals of Economic and Social Measurement，1976，(5):475-492.
[24] Heckman J Sample Selection Bias as Specific Error [J] Econometrica，1979，(47):152-161.
[25]冯春梅.农村女性人力资本投资对收入影响的实证研究分析[J].滁州学院学报，2010.
[26]韩靓，原新.我国农民工收入增长因素的实证研究[J].人口学刊，2009，（1）：37-43.
[27]加里·贝克尔.人力资本[M].北京：北京大学出版社，1987.
[28]侯风云．农村外出劳动力收入与人力资本状况相关性研究[J]．财经研究，2004，（4）：89-101.
[29]侯风云.中国农村人力资本收益率研究[J].经济研究，2004，（12）：75-84.
[30]侯风云.中国人力资本投资与城乡就业相关性研究[M].上海：上海三联书店、上海人民出版社，2007.
[31]卡赫克，齐尔贝尔博格.劳动经济学[M].上海：上海财经大学出版社，2007.
[32]科林·卡梅隆，普拉温·特里维迪.微观计量经济学方法与应用.[M].上海：上海财经大学出版社，2008.
[33]李湘萍.在职培训经典研究文献评述——基于在职培训研究视角、方法与发现的评述[J]，中国职业技术教育，2007(2):13-16.
[34]刘湘丽.我国企业职工培训现状分析[J]，中国工业经济，2000(7):63-67.
[35]李湘萍,赫克明.企业在职培训对员工收入增长、职业发展的影响[J].北京大学教育评论，2007，(1):150-160.
[36]刘冰.企业在职培训与农村转移劳动力的人力资本形成[D].博士学位论文，浙江大学，2009.
[37]任国强.培训对农户就业选择和收入增长的影响研究[J].中国农机化，2009（226）120-124.
[38]王广慧.人力资本投资收入效应的经验研究[D].博士学位论文，吉林大学，2009.
[39]许昆鹏.农村劳动力转移培训的投资机制研究[D].博士学位论文，浙江大学，2007.
[40]乐章，刘萍萍.人力资本与收入水平——关于外出务工农民的一个实证分析[J].中南财经政法大学学报，2007，（2）：8-13.
[41]张世伟,王广慧.培训对农民工收入的影响[J].人口与经济，2010（1）：34-38.
[42]张鹏伟，李嫣怡.STATA统计分析与应用[M].北京：电子工业出版社，2011.5.
[43]张娟.农民参加培训的支付意愿及影响因素分析——基于江苏调查数据的实证分析[J].乡镇经济，2007.
[44]郭凤鸣.中国城镇劳动力市场中性别工资差异的经验研究[D].博士学位论文，吉林大学，2011.
[45]加里·贝克尔.人力资本理论[M].郭虹等译.北京：中信出版社，2007.
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