机电产品安全性预警研究
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摘要
随着科技的发展,机电产品在人们生产、生活中起到了越来越重要的作用,同时,因产品安全性问题导致的事故也屡见不鲜。安全性是产品的重要性能参数,为了能够更好的提高产品的安全性,本文引入了预警的概念,“预警”作为一种预防事故发生的有效方法对减少不必要的人员伤亡、财产损失等事故有重要作用。
本文在系统安全分析方法及失效概率理论的基础上建立了机电产品安全性预警模型。该模型的目的为构建产品事故的发生概率与产品的零部件失效概率之间的一种关系,进而计算产品事故的发生概率超出可接受的限值时所对应的预警时刻。首先,本文对分析得出的产品事故类型,按照可能产生的事故后果的严重性等级确定预警级别。其次,根据经验、相关标准等设定事故的发生概率限值,由事故树分析找出所有可能导致产品事故发生的零部件失效模式组合(最小割集)。最后,根据产品事故顶上事件的发生概率公式,结合失效概率公式构建一个含有变量t的函数关系式求解预警时间,依此提前告警以预防事故的发生。
对可修复产品而言,本文提出了二次预警,即在产品维修后的继续使用过程中,也可以通过预警来提高产品的安全性,最后,本文以电梯为实例,对本文的机电产品安全性预警模型进行了应用验证。
With the development of science and technology, machinery & electrical products have played an important role in our life. Also, the poor product safety which led to casualties and property losses are a common occurrence. As one of the key character parameters of product, this paper introduces the concept of early warning to improve the safety for products, which is a effective method to reduce unnecessary casualties, property losses etc.
Machinery & electrical products safety early warning model is based on the system safety & security analysis methods and failure probability theories. It aims to make a failure probability relationship between products and its parts, and then calculate a time value, in which failure probability of occurrence reach unacceptable. First of all, according to Severity grade of unexpected mishaps define early warning levels. Second, set a foregone ultimate value of failure probability of unexpected mishaps on the basis of experiences or the relevant standards etc., by the FTA to identify failure parts (The Minimal Cut Sets) which cause unacceptable mishap happened. Using Weibull failure probability distribution function set failure probability of parts. At last, carry the probability formulas of the occurrence mishaps in the FTA combine with failure probability formulas of parts, and then make equations which contains the parameter of time, the solving results are the early warning time, so that, this can prevent mishap happened.
For repairable products, the second early warning is proposed, when the repairable products after repaired can apply early warning to improve safety also. In the last chapter of this thesis, we illustrated this model with the example of elevators.
本文在系统安全分析方法及失效概率理论的基础上建立了机电产品安全性预警模型。该模型的目的为构建产品事故的发生概率与产品的零部件失效概率之间的一种关系,进而计算产品事故的发生概率超出可接受的限值时所对应的预警时刻。首先,本文对分析得出的产品事故类型,按照可能产生的事故后果的严重性等级确定预警级别。其次,根据经验、相关标准等设定事故的发生概率限值,由事故树分析找出所有可能导致产品事故发生的零部件失效模式组合(最小割集)。最后,根据产品事故顶上事件的发生概率公式,结合失效概率公式构建一个含有变量t的函数关系式求解预警时间,依此提前告警以预防事故的发生。
对可修复产品而言,本文提出了二次预警,即在产品维修后的继续使用过程中,也可以通过预警来提高产品的安全性,最后,本文以电梯为实例,对本文的机电产品安全性预警模型进行了应用验证。
With the development of science and technology, machinery & electrical products have played an important role in our life. Also, the poor product safety which led to casualties and property losses are a common occurrence. As one of the key character parameters of product, this paper introduces the concept of early warning to improve the safety for products, which is a effective method to reduce unnecessary casualties, property losses etc.
Machinery & electrical products safety early warning model is based on the system safety & security analysis methods and failure probability theories. It aims to make a failure probability relationship between products and its parts, and then calculate a time value, in which failure probability of occurrence reach unacceptable. First of all, according to Severity grade of unexpected mishaps define early warning levels. Second, set a foregone ultimate value of failure probability of unexpected mishaps on the basis of experiences or the relevant standards etc., by the FTA to identify failure parts (The Minimal Cut Sets) which cause unacceptable mishap happened. Using Weibull failure probability distribution function set failure probability of parts. At last, carry the probability formulas of the occurrence mishaps in the FTA combine with failure probability formulas of parts, and then make equations which contains the parameter of time, the solving results are the early warning time, so that, this can prevent mishap happened.
For repairable products, the second early warning is proposed, when the repairable products after repaired can apply early warning to improve safety also. In the last chapter of this thesis, we illustrated this model with the example of elevators.
引文
[1]金军.电气设备状态维修对设备可靠性的影响分析[J].科技资讯, 2009,30期:25
[2] Gwandu BAL, Creasey DJ. Using Formal Methods in Design for Reliability as Applied to An Electronic System That Integrates Software and Hardware to Perform a Function .Micro-electron Reliability, 1995, 35(8):20-23
[3] Leveson N G. Software System Safety and Computers. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Inc,1995:60-66
[4]唐晓纯.食品安全预警理论方法与应用[M].北京:中国轻工业出版社,2008:15-19
[5]范秋芳.中国石油安全预警及对策研究[D].[博士学位论文].中国科学技术大学,2007:28-35
[6]孙桂林.可靠性与安全生产[M].北京:化学工业出版社,1996:30
[7]James Bohr. Open Systems Approach–Integrated Diagnostics Demonstration Program [A].American National Defense Industrial Association System Engineering & Supportability Conference, 2002:1001-1011
[8]ISO 14121 Safety of Machinery principle for risk assessment[S], International Organization for standardization, 1999:69
[9]吴穹,许开力.安全管理学[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,2002:217
[10]龙凤,王忠,程绪建,陈桂明.航天电子产品的PHM技术研究[J].微电子学与计算机,2010,27卷10期
[11]吴忠良,蒋长胜.预警的概念及相关物理问题[J].物理学与社会,2007,36卷6期:48-49
[12]Paul Everitt,Anthony Price. Product safety Risk Assessment Methodologies A Whole of Life Look at Safety[J]. 2004:2301
[13]高社生,张玲霞.可靠性理论与工程应用[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2002:36-44
[14]凌丹.威布尔分布模型及其在机械可靠性中的应用研究[D].[博士学位论文].电子科技大学,2010:69-71
[15]张迎春.机电产品系统可靠性建模与预测方法研究[D].[硕士学位论文].山东理工大学,2010:76
[16]樊林波,吴映程等.软件可靠性与安全性的区别分析及证明[J].计算机科学,2008,35卷9期:49
[17]周晓冬.PFI项目风险预警系统研究[D].[博士学位论文].东北林业大学,2008:26-41
[18] Liu Yilun. Engineering component fatigue life prediction theories and methods .Hunan Science And Technology Press.1 996,10: 20-23
[19] Dong Ximing. The analysis of failure and reliability on rolling stock. Railroad rolling stock.2004,24(6):79-80
[20]中国军用标准化委员会.系统安全性通用大纲.GJB900.2006:45
[21]张景林,崔国璋.安全系统工程[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,2002:41
[22]李琼.动车组件关键部件寿命管理信息系统的研究与实现[D].[硕士学位论文].北京交通大学,2008:51-54
[23]蒋仁言,左明健.可靠性模型与应用[M].北京:机械工业出版社,1999:107-117
[24]中国军用标准化委员会.装备维修性通用规范GJB368-1987:16-18
[25]郑胥侠.机电产品可靠性的数学模型分析[J].机械制造与研究,2008:31
[26] Jata K V, Parthasarathy T A. Physics of failure[C]//First International Forum onIntegrated System Health Engineering and Management in Aerospace, NASA. Napa Valley, CA, 2006:3102-3106
[27] Department of Defense Standard Practice for System Safety. MIL-STD-882D.2000:50-59
[28]罗云,樊运晓.风险分析预安全评价[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2004:39-43
[29]Jerry C. Whitaker. Design for reliability. Boca Raton London New York Washington, D.C..2001:66
[30]徐远龙,徐人平.产品寿命分布分析和可靠度估计[J].机电产品开发与创新,2007,20卷6期:87
[31]高社生,张玲霞.可靠性理论与工程应用[M].国防工业出版社,2002:101-105
[32]何周琴.机械零部件可靠性设计之概率设计法[J].机械自动化与仪器仪表,2010,3期:21
[33]卞绍明.浅谈系统工程安全预测的本质[J].沧州师范专科学报,2003,19卷3期:32-33
[34]陈国华.风险工程学[M].北京:国防工业出版社, 2007:56
[35]顾长鸿,周海京.军工产品安全性工程技术[J].质量与可靠性, 2005,11期:89
[36] Goodfellow , J. W. Applying reliability centered maintenance(RCM)to overhead electric utility distribution systems. Power Engineering Society Summer Meeting.2000,03:5110-5113
[37] Keogh E,Chakrabarti K,Pazzani Metal. Dimensionality reduction technique for fast similarity search in large time series data-bases. Journal of Knowledge and Information Systems.2001,3(3):35
[38]王学峰.电梯运行中的主要故障及其原因[J].大众标准化,2003,6期:16
[39]Hess A Real Prognositics-Challenges Issues and Lessons Learned: Chasing the Big”P”[A].First international forum on integrated system health engineering and management in aerospace, Clalifornia USA, 2005:45-47
[40]刘铁民,张兴凯,刘功智.安全评价方法应用指南[M] .北京:化学工业出版社,2002:96
[2] Gwandu BAL, Creasey DJ. Using Formal Methods in Design for Reliability as Applied to An Electronic System That Integrates Software and Hardware to Perform a Function .Micro-electron Reliability, 1995, 35(8):20-23
[3] Leveson N G. Software System Safety and Computers. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Inc,1995:60-66
[4]唐晓纯.食品安全预警理论方法与应用[M].北京:中国轻工业出版社,2008:15-19
[5]范秋芳.中国石油安全预警及对策研究[D].[博士学位论文].中国科学技术大学,2007:28-35
[6]孙桂林.可靠性与安全生产[M].北京:化学工业出版社,1996:30
[7]James Bohr. Open Systems Approach–Integrated Diagnostics Demonstration Program [A].American National Defense Industrial Association System Engineering & Supportability Conference, 2002:1001-1011
[8]ISO 14121 Safety of Machinery principle for risk assessment[S], International Organization for standardization, 1999:69
[9]吴穹,许开力.安全管理学[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,2002:217
[10]龙凤,王忠,程绪建,陈桂明.航天电子产品的PHM技术研究[J].微电子学与计算机,2010,27卷10期
[11]吴忠良,蒋长胜.预警的概念及相关物理问题[J].物理学与社会,2007,36卷6期:48-49
[12]Paul Everitt,Anthony Price. Product safety Risk Assessment Methodologies A Whole of Life Look at Safety[J]. 2004:2301
[13]高社生,张玲霞.可靠性理论与工程应用[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2002:36-44
[14]凌丹.威布尔分布模型及其在机械可靠性中的应用研究[D].[博士学位论文].电子科技大学,2010:69-71
[15]张迎春.机电产品系统可靠性建模与预测方法研究[D].[硕士学位论文].山东理工大学,2010:76
[16]樊林波,吴映程等.软件可靠性与安全性的区别分析及证明[J].计算机科学,2008,35卷9期:49
[17]周晓冬.PFI项目风险预警系统研究[D].[博士学位论文].东北林业大学,2008:26-41
[18] Liu Yilun. Engineering component fatigue life prediction theories and methods .Hunan Science And Technology Press.1 996,10: 20-23
[19] Dong Ximing. The analysis of failure and reliability on rolling stock. Railroad rolling stock.2004,24(6):79-80
[20]中国军用标准化委员会.系统安全性通用大纲.GJB900.2006:45
[21]张景林,崔国璋.安全系统工程[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,2002:41
[22]李琼.动车组件关键部件寿命管理信息系统的研究与实现[D].[硕士学位论文].北京交通大学,2008:51-54
[23]蒋仁言,左明健.可靠性模型与应用[M].北京:机械工业出版社,1999:107-117
[24]中国军用标准化委员会.装备维修性通用规范GJB368-1987:16-18
[25]郑胥侠.机电产品可靠性的数学模型分析[J].机械制造与研究,2008:31
[26] Jata K V, Parthasarathy T A. Physics of failure[C]//First International Forum onIntegrated System Health Engineering and Management in Aerospace, NASA. Napa Valley, CA, 2006:3102-3106
[27] Department of Defense Standard Practice for System Safety. MIL-STD-882D.2000:50-59
[28]罗云,樊运晓.风险分析预安全评价[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2004:39-43
[29]Jerry C. Whitaker. Design for reliability. Boca Raton London New York Washington, D.C..2001:66
[30]徐远龙,徐人平.产品寿命分布分析和可靠度估计[J].机电产品开发与创新,2007,20卷6期:87
[31]高社生,张玲霞.可靠性理论与工程应用[M].国防工业出版社,2002:101-105
[32]何周琴.机械零部件可靠性设计之概率设计法[J].机械自动化与仪器仪表,2010,3期:21
[33]卞绍明.浅谈系统工程安全预测的本质[J].沧州师范专科学报,2003,19卷3期:32-33
[34]陈国华.风险工程学[M].北京:国防工业出版社, 2007:56
[35]顾长鸿,周海京.军工产品安全性工程技术[J].质量与可靠性, 2005,11期:89
[36] Goodfellow , J. W. Applying reliability centered maintenance(RCM)to overhead electric utility distribution systems. Power Engineering Society Summer Meeting.2000,03:5110-5113
[37] Keogh E,Chakrabarti K,Pazzani Metal. Dimensionality reduction technique for fast similarity search in large time series data-bases. Journal of Knowledge and Information Systems.2001,3(3):35
[38]王学峰.电梯运行中的主要故障及其原因[J].大众标准化,2003,6期:16
[39]Hess A Real Prognositics-Challenges Issues and Lessons Learned: Chasing the Big”P”[A].First international forum on integrated system health engineering and management in aerospace, Clalifornia USA, 2005:45-47
[40]刘铁民,张兴凯,刘功智.安全评价方法应用指南[M] .北京:化学工业出版社,2002:96
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