经济全球化对社会保障水平的影响
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摘要
经济全球化对社会保障水平的影响可以用两种假说解释,即补偿假说和效率假说。补偿假说认为经济全球化将导致社会保障水平的上升,效率假说认为经济全球化将导致社会保障水平的下降。一直以来,该领域的研究对象集中在发达国家,且得到的结论以补偿假说为主。对欠发达国家的研究较少,且少量的样本中未包含中国。本文从经济全球化的视角入手研究了中国省际间社会保障水平的差异。本文对社会保障水平的度量主要采取两个维度,一是用社会保障支出占GDP比重,二是用社会保险支出占GDP的比重。通过采用30个省市1999-2007年数据,本文发现经济全球化对社会保障支出占GDP比重有负向影响,对社会保险支出占GDP比重亦有负向影响,其中对养老保险占GDP比重的影响更为明显。人力资本的水平会改变对外贸易对社会保险水平的影响,即随着该地区人力资本水平的提高,补偿假说效应得到增强。东部地区由于外贸规模较大,其养老保险支出占GDP比重在其他条件相同情况下会比全国平均水平低12%。但在人力资本水平较高的东部地区,对外贸易对养老保险水平有正向影响。文章的政策含义在于,在经济全球化过程中,社会保障水平应根据各省份的实际情况灵活决定,注意权衡保障功能以及其对地区竞争力的影响。
The impact of economic globalization on social insurance level can be explained by two major hypotheses, compensation hypothesis and efficiency hypothesis. Compensation hypothesis believes that globalization will reduce social insurance level while efficiency hypothesis holds a contending perspective that social insurance level will go up thanks to the economic globalization. To date, most papers in this study field focused on OECD countries and the few studies on LCD countries did not include China. This paper can provide evidences from China. This study mostly addresses the effects of economic globalization on Chinese cross-provincial social insurance differences by using two measurement dimensions, the ratio of social security and welfare expenditure to GDP and the ratio of social insurance spending to GDP. By using the data from 2000 to 2007 of thirty provinces, findings can be illustrated as follows:globalization has negative effects on social security and welfare expenditure and social insurance level, especially on pension insurance level. While trade has a significant effect, FDI effect is a little insignificant. But human capital can change the negative effect of trade on social insurance level. Compensation effects become stronger in regions with higher human capital level. For instance, as trade volume is relatively larger in eastern provinces, the ratio of pension insurance spending to GDP as a whole is, other things being equal,12% lower than the other provinces. However, in eastern provinces where human capital is higher, the trade effect gradually becomes positive. Similar conclusions can be draw when the measurement dimension is government social security and welfare expenditure. The political implication of this paper is that it's highly necessary to weigh both security function and its effects on area competitiveness when choosing an appropriate social insurance level during economic globalization and integration.
The impact of economic globalization on social insurance level can be explained by two major hypotheses, compensation hypothesis and efficiency hypothesis. Compensation hypothesis believes that globalization will reduce social insurance level while efficiency hypothesis holds a contending perspective that social insurance level will go up thanks to the economic globalization. To date, most papers in this study field focused on OECD countries and the few studies on LCD countries did not include China. This paper can provide evidences from China. This study mostly addresses the effects of economic globalization on Chinese cross-provincial social insurance differences by using two measurement dimensions, the ratio of social security and welfare expenditure to GDP and the ratio of social insurance spending to GDP. By using the data from 2000 to 2007 of thirty provinces, findings can be illustrated as follows:globalization has negative effects on social security and welfare expenditure and social insurance level, especially on pension insurance level. While trade has a significant effect, FDI effect is a little insignificant. But human capital can change the negative effect of trade on social insurance level. Compensation effects become stronger in regions with higher human capital level. For instance, as trade volume is relatively larger in eastern provinces, the ratio of pension insurance spending to GDP as a whole is, other things being equal,12% lower than the other provinces. However, in eastern provinces where human capital is higher, the trade effect gradually becomes positive. Similar conclusions can be draw when the measurement dimension is government social security and welfare expenditure. The political implication of this paper is that it's highly necessary to weigh both security function and its effects on area competitiveness when choosing an appropriate social insurance level during economic globalization and integration.
引文
[1]Arellano, Manual and Bond, Stephen. Some tests of Specification for Panel Data:Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations [J]. Review of Economic Studies, Apr.,1991,58(2), pp.277-297.
[2]Blundell, R. and Bond, S. Initial conditions and moments restrictions in dynamic panel data models [J]. Journal of Econometrics,87, pp.11-143.
[3]Cheng, K. and Y. Kwan. What are the determinants of the location of foreign direct investment? The Chinese experience [J]. Journal of International Economics,2000,51, pp.379-400.
[4]Culter, D.M., and R. Johnson. The birth and growth of the social insurance state:explaining old age and medical insurance across countries [J]. Public Choice,2004, vol.120, issue 1_2, pages 87-121.
[5]Devereux, M.; Griffith, R. and Klemm, A. Corporate income tax reforms and international tax competition [J]. Economic Policy,2002,17, pp.450-495.
[6]Dreher, Axel. The Impact of Globalization on the Composition of Government Expenditures: Evidence from Panel Data [J]. Public Choice,2008,134(3/4), pp.263-292.
[7]Guido, Tabellini. A Positive Theory of Social Security [J]. Scandinavian Journal of Economics.2000,102(3), pp.523-545
[8]Garrett, Geoffrey. Global Markets and National Politics:Collision Course or Virtuous Circle [J]. International Organization, Autumn,1998,52(4), pp.787-824.----Globalization and Government Spending around the world [J].Studies in Comparative International Development, Winter,2001,35(4), pp.3-29.
[9]Garrett, Geoffrey and Deborah, Mitchell. Globalization, Government Spending and Taxation in OECD [J]. European Journal of Political Research,2001,39, pp.145-177.
[10]Huber, Evelyne. Development and Crisis of the Welfare State [M]. Chicago, IL:University of Chicago press,2001.pp.202-219.
[11]Huber, E., Ragin, C.,& Stephens, J. Social democracy, Christian democracy, constitutional structure, and the welfare state [J]. American Journal of S Sociology,1993,99, pp.711-749.
[12]Hicks, A. and Swank, D. Politics, institutions, and welfare spending in industrialized democracies1960-82 [J]. American Political Science Review,1992,86, pp.658-674.
[13]Lindert. Peter H. Growing Public:Social Spending and Economic Growth since the Eighteenth Century [M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2004. pp.390-404.
[14]Mishra, Ramesh. Globalization and the Welfare State [R]. Northampton, MA:Edward Elger,1999. pp.55-65.
[15]Milberg William and Houston Ellen. The High Road and the low Road to International Competitiveness [R]. Paper prepared for Globalization and Social Policy.
[16]Paula Auerbach, Maria Eugenia Genoni and Carmen Pages. Socail Security Coverage and the Labor Market in Developing Countries [R]. IZA Discussion Papers.2007
[17]Quinn, D. The correlates of change in international financial regulation [J]. American Political Science Review.1997.,91(3), pp.531-551.
[18]Quinn, Dennis P., and Carla Inclan. The Origins of Financial Openness:A Study of Current and Capital Account Liberalization [J]. American Journal of Political Science,1997,41, pp.771-813.
[19]Rodrik, Dani. Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments? [J]. The Journal of Political Economy, Oct.,1998,106(5), pp.997-1032.----Has Globalization Gone Too Far? [R]. Institute for International Economics,1997, Washington, D.C.
[20]Roodman, D. How to do xtabond2:an introduction to "Difference" and "System" GMM in Stata [R]. Center for Global Development Working Paper No.103,2006.----xtabond2:Stata module to extend xtabond dynamic panel data estimator [R]. Washington: Center for Global Development.2005.
[21]Rickard, J. Stephanie. The Costs of Risk:Examining the Missing Link between Globalization and Social Spending [R]. Penn State University, Institute for International Integration Studies ⅢS Discussion Paper No.185, Nov.,2006.
[22]Rudra, Nita. Globalization and the Decline of the Welfare State in Less-Developed Countries [J]. International Organization, Spring,2002,56(2), pp.411-445.----Have Government Gone Too Far [R]. Paper prepared for presentation at the Ohio State Workshop on Globalization,Institutions, and Economic Security.2008.----Are Workers in the Developing World "winners" or "losers" in the Current Era of Globalization? [J]. Studies in Comparative International Devlopment.2005, Volume 40, Number 3, Pages 30-64
[23]Soskice,D. Wage Determination:the changing role of institutions in advanced industrialized countries [J]. Oxford Review of Economic Policy,1990.V.6.No.4,pp 36-61.
[24]Swank, Duane and Cathie Jo Martin. Employers and the Welfare State [J]. Comparative Political Studies,2001,34(8). pp.889-923
[25]Swank, D. Global markets, democratic institutions, and the public economy in advanced industrial societies [R]. Marquette University, mimeo.1997.-----Funding the Welfare State [J]. Political Studies.1998,46, pp.672-692.
[26]Scharpf, F. W.,2000, Globalization and the Welfare State:Constraints, Challenges and Vulnerabilities [R].2000 International Research Conference on Social Security, Helsinki.
[27]Wang, Zhi. and Shang-jin. Wei. What accounts for the rising sophistication of China's exports? [R]. NBER working paper, No.13771,2008.
[28]Wildasin, D. E. Interjurisdictional Capital Mobility:Fiscal Externality and a Corrective Subsidy [J]. Journal of Urban Economics,1998,25, pp.193-212.
[29]Yoon, Jungkeun. Globalization and the Welfare State in Developing Countries [J]. Business and Politics,2009,11(2). pp 1705-1771.
[3 o]柯卉兵.中国社会保障财政支出的地区差异问题分析[J].公共管理学报.2009,第1期，第38-42页.
[31]林治芬.中国社会保障的地区差异及其转移支付[J].财经研究.2002,第5期，第37-43页.
[32]王晓军，赵彤.中国社会养老保险的省区差距分析[J].人口研究.2006，第2期,第44-50页.
[33]徐康宁.陈健.跨国公司价值链的区位选择及其决定因素[J].经济研究.2008,第3期,第138-149页.
[34]袁志刚.李珍珍，封进.城市化进程中的养老保险水平研究[J].南开经济研究.2009, 第4期,第3-14页.
[35]张军.对1978年以来中国的经济转型和经济增长的评价[A].当代中国经济研究10篇.北京大学出版社,2009.5.
[36]张涛,张若雪.人力资本与技术采用：对珠三角技术进步缓慢的一个解释[J].管理世界.2009,第2期,第1-16页.
1财政社会保障支出包括政府收支中的抚恤和社会福利救济费、社会保障补助支出和行政事业单位离退休费三项,不包含社会保险支出。
2数据来源：根据《中国统计年鉴》数据计算。
3还有的从民主化程度、宗教、种族的差异等角度解释,可以参见Culter Johnson (2004)
4对资本流动带来的影响还可以从金融管制的功能加以解释,如Quinn and Inclan (1997)认为,金融自由化导致一些国家的某些要素在国际竞争中处于下风,所以政府支出就作为金融管制的一个替代品补偿那些在竞争中落败的群体。
5 Wildasin的模型得到的结论是,在资本完全流动时,地方政府有激励降低资本税,进而降低对地方公共品的支出。
6另外,由于国际地位的差别,发达国家可以将全球化造成的成本增加向发展中国家转移,这也可能是对发达国家和发展中国家研究得出不同结论的原因(Garret,2001)
7二元经济下,农村社会保险水平可能会影响农村劳动力转移及其保留工资,但现有的实证研究发现农村社会保险尚处于初级阶段,保障程度低,并未对劳动力转移决策有影响。因此,本文社会保险指五项强制性社会保险,不含农村养老保险和医疗保险等自愿参加的制度。
8劳动与社会保障部在1999年颁布《关于建立基本养老保险省级统筹制度有关问题的通知》,加快建立省级统筹制度。2005年国务院38号文件进一步强调要尽快提高统筹层次,实现省级统筹。目前除直辖市外有10多个省实现省级统筹,其余地区还停留在市、县统筹。(《21世纪经济报道》2009年3月28日)。
9例如2008年国务院确定的企业退休人员基本养老金标准上调幅度为当地2007年月人均养老金10%左右,2008年至2010年将继续上调三年。由于各地经济发展水平有差异,工资增长、物价增幅有所不同,基本养老保险基金支撑能力和财政支持力度也各不相同,因此各地养老金调整水平有所差别。
10金融危机背景下,人力资源社会保障部提出,城镇职工基本医疗保险、工伤保险基金结余规模较大的统筹地区,可采取一次性措施适当降低一定时期的缴费费率。各地政府积极响应,例如广东省劳动保障厅通知,在2009年1-12月间医疗保险缴费率降低5-10%,工伤保险降低不超过30%。表明社会保险很大程度上影响到企业的用工成本。
112005年之后《中国统计年鉴》没有公布这一指标,数据来源于CEIC数据库。
12本文对于城市化率的度量采用了文献一般的做法。尽管这一指标不能反映劳动力流动对城市化水平的影响,但也缺乏更好的指标替代,而且在后文中比较城市化率对社会保险和养老保险水平不同的影响,这一指标还是有意义的。
13东部为北京、天津、河北、辽宁、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东、海南等11省,其余省市为中西部。
[2]Blundell, R. and Bond, S. Initial conditions and moments restrictions in dynamic panel data models [J]. Journal of Econometrics,87, pp.11-143.
[3]Cheng, K. and Y. Kwan. What are the determinants of the location of foreign direct investment? The Chinese experience [J]. Journal of International Economics,2000,51, pp.379-400.
[4]Culter, D.M., and R. Johnson. The birth and growth of the social insurance state:explaining old age and medical insurance across countries [J]. Public Choice,2004, vol.120, issue 1_2, pages 87-121.
[5]Devereux, M.; Griffith, R. and Klemm, A. Corporate income tax reforms and international tax competition [J]. Economic Policy,2002,17, pp.450-495.
[6]Dreher, Axel. The Impact of Globalization on the Composition of Government Expenditures: Evidence from Panel Data [J]. Public Choice,2008,134(3/4), pp.263-292.
[7]Guido, Tabellini. A Positive Theory of Social Security [J]. Scandinavian Journal of Economics.2000,102(3), pp.523-545
[8]Garrett, Geoffrey. Global Markets and National Politics:Collision Course or Virtuous Circle [J]. International Organization, Autumn,1998,52(4), pp.787-824.----Globalization and Government Spending around the world [J].Studies in Comparative International Development, Winter,2001,35(4), pp.3-29.
[9]Garrett, Geoffrey and Deborah, Mitchell. Globalization, Government Spending and Taxation in OECD [J]. European Journal of Political Research,2001,39, pp.145-177.
[10]Huber, Evelyne. Development and Crisis of the Welfare State [M]. Chicago, IL:University of Chicago press,2001.pp.202-219.
[11]Huber, E., Ragin, C.,& Stephens, J. Social democracy, Christian democracy, constitutional structure, and the welfare state [J]. American Journal of S Sociology,1993,99, pp.711-749.
[12]Hicks, A. and Swank, D. Politics, institutions, and welfare spending in industrialized democracies1960-82 [J]. American Political Science Review,1992,86, pp.658-674.
[13]Lindert. Peter H. Growing Public:Social Spending and Economic Growth since the Eighteenth Century [M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2004. pp.390-404.
[14]Mishra, Ramesh. Globalization and the Welfare State [R]. Northampton, MA:Edward Elger,1999. pp.55-65.
[15]Milberg William and Houston Ellen. The High Road and the low Road to International Competitiveness [R]. Paper prepared for Globalization and Social Policy.
[16]Paula Auerbach, Maria Eugenia Genoni and Carmen Pages. Socail Security Coverage and the Labor Market in Developing Countries [R]. IZA Discussion Papers.2007
[17]Quinn, D. The correlates of change in international financial regulation [J]. American Political Science Review.1997.,91(3), pp.531-551.
[18]Quinn, Dennis P., and Carla Inclan. The Origins of Financial Openness:A Study of Current and Capital Account Liberalization [J]. American Journal of Political Science,1997,41, pp.771-813.
[19]Rodrik, Dani. Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments? [J]. The Journal of Political Economy, Oct.,1998,106(5), pp.997-1032.----Has Globalization Gone Too Far? [R]. Institute for International Economics,1997, Washington, D.C.
[20]Roodman, D. How to do xtabond2:an introduction to "Difference" and "System" GMM in Stata [R]. Center for Global Development Working Paper No.103,2006.----xtabond2:Stata module to extend xtabond dynamic panel data estimator [R]. Washington: Center for Global Development.2005.
[21]Rickard, J. Stephanie. The Costs of Risk:Examining the Missing Link between Globalization and Social Spending [R]. Penn State University, Institute for International Integration Studies ⅢS Discussion Paper No.185, Nov.,2006.
[22]Rudra, Nita. Globalization and the Decline of the Welfare State in Less-Developed Countries [J]. International Organization, Spring,2002,56(2), pp.411-445.----Have Government Gone Too Far [R]. Paper prepared for presentation at the Ohio State Workshop on Globalization,Institutions, and Economic Security.2008.----Are Workers in the Developing World "winners" or "losers" in the Current Era of Globalization? [J]. Studies in Comparative International Devlopment.2005, Volume 40, Number 3, Pages 30-64
[23]Soskice,D. Wage Determination:the changing role of institutions in advanced industrialized countries [J]. Oxford Review of Economic Policy,1990.V.6.No.4,pp 36-61.
[24]Swank, Duane and Cathie Jo Martin. Employers and the Welfare State [J]. Comparative Political Studies,2001,34(8). pp.889-923
[25]Swank, D. Global markets, democratic institutions, and the public economy in advanced industrial societies [R]. Marquette University, mimeo.1997.-----Funding the Welfare State [J]. Political Studies.1998,46, pp.672-692.
[26]Scharpf, F. W.,2000, Globalization and the Welfare State:Constraints, Challenges and Vulnerabilities [R].2000 International Research Conference on Social Security, Helsinki.
[27]Wang, Zhi. and Shang-jin. Wei. What accounts for the rising sophistication of China's exports? [R]. NBER working paper, No.13771,2008.
[28]Wildasin, D. E. Interjurisdictional Capital Mobility:Fiscal Externality and a Corrective Subsidy [J]. Journal of Urban Economics,1998,25, pp.193-212.
[29]Yoon, Jungkeun. Globalization and the Welfare State in Developing Countries [J]. Business and Politics,2009,11(2). pp 1705-1771.
[3 o]柯卉兵.中国社会保障财政支出的地区差异问题分析[J].公共管理学报.2009,第1期，第38-42页.
[31]林治芬.中国社会保障的地区差异及其转移支付[J].财经研究.2002,第5期，第37-43页.
[32]王晓军，赵彤.中国社会养老保险的省区差距分析[J].人口研究.2006，第2期,第44-50页.
[33]徐康宁.陈健.跨国公司价值链的区位选择及其决定因素[J].经济研究.2008,第3期,第138-149页.
[34]袁志刚.李珍珍，封进.城市化进程中的养老保险水平研究[J].南开经济研究.2009, 第4期,第3-14页.
[35]张军.对1978年以来中国的经济转型和经济增长的评价[A].当代中国经济研究10篇.北京大学出版社,2009.5.
[36]张涛,张若雪.人力资本与技术采用：对珠三角技术进步缓慢的一个解释[J].管理世界.2009,第2期,第1-16页.
1财政社会保障支出包括政府收支中的抚恤和社会福利救济费、社会保障补助支出和行政事业单位离退休费三项,不包含社会保险支出。
2数据来源：根据《中国统计年鉴》数据计算。
3还有的从民主化程度、宗教、种族的差异等角度解释,可以参见Culter Johnson (2004)
4对资本流动带来的影响还可以从金融管制的功能加以解释,如Quinn and Inclan (1997)认为,金融自由化导致一些国家的某些要素在国际竞争中处于下风,所以政府支出就作为金融管制的一个替代品补偿那些在竞争中落败的群体。
5 Wildasin的模型得到的结论是,在资本完全流动时,地方政府有激励降低资本税,进而降低对地方公共品的支出。
6另外,由于国际地位的差别,发达国家可以将全球化造成的成本增加向发展中国家转移,这也可能是对发达国家和发展中国家研究得出不同结论的原因(Garret,2001)
7二元经济下,农村社会保险水平可能会影响农村劳动力转移及其保留工资,但现有的实证研究发现农村社会保险尚处于初级阶段,保障程度低,并未对劳动力转移决策有影响。因此,本文社会保险指五项强制性社会保险,不含农村养老保险和医疗保险等自愿参加的制度。
8劳动与社会保障部在1999年颁布《关于建立基本养老保险省级统筹制度有关问题的通知》,加快建立省级统筹制度。2005年国务院38号文件进一步强调要尽快提高统筹层次,实现省级统筹。目前除直辖市外有10多个省实现省级统筹,其余地区还停留在市、县统筹。(《21世纪经济报道》2009年3月28日)。
9例如2008年国务院确定的企业退休人员基本养老金标准上调幅度为当地2007年月人均养老金10%左右,2008年至2010年将继续上调三年。由于各地经济发展水平有差异,工资增长、物价增幅有所不同,基本养老保险基金支撑能力和财政支持力度也各不相同,因此各地养老金调整水平有所差别。
10金融危机背景下,人力资源社会保障部提出,城镇职工基本医疗保险、工伤保险基金结余规模较大的统筹地区,可采取一次性措施适当降低一定时期的缴费费率。各地政府积极响应,例如广东省劳动保障厅通知,在2009年1-12月间医疗保险缴费率降低5-10%,工伤保险降低不超过30%。表明社会保险很大程度上影响到企业的用工成本。
112005年之后《中国统计年鉴》没有公布这一指标,数据来源于CEIC数据库。
12本文对于城市化率的度量采用了文献一般的做法。尽管这一指标不能反映劳动力流动对城市化水平的影响,但也缺乏更好的指标替代,而且在后文中比较城市化率对社会保险和养老保险水平不同的影响,这一指标还是有意义的。
13东部为北京、天津、河北、辽宁、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东、海南等11省,其余省市为中西部。
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