我国轿车工业跨越式发展模式研究
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摘要
本文首先利用比较优势理论分别构造了比较优势下发达国家之间的博弈模型和比较优势下发达国家与发展中国家之间的博弈模型,进而提出我国发展轿车工业的战略选择。
文中分析了典型的汽车工业后起国日本、韩国和巴西发展模式的主要特点,并对他们的发展模式进行了比较分析。这些汽车工业后起国的发展模式是发展我国轿车工业的重要借鉴。
文中阐述了与合资模式有关的外商直接投资理论,叙述合资方式已成为发展我国轿车工业的主导模式的发展轨迹。分析了我国轿车工业选择合资模式的背景与合资企业的经济效益、合资企业的技术转移效应、合资企业的技术溢出效益,从理论和实践两个角度论述合资陷阱。
运用后发优势理论,分析中国轿车工业的后发优势,提出我国轿车工业跨越式发展模式,重点分析了我国轿车工业跨越式发展模式的特征。
近二十年来我国“市场换技术”策略屡屡重蹈“创新追赶陷阱”的事实证明我国轿车工业不可能通过合资模式来实现赶超的目标。经过多年的探索和争论,中国汽车产业必须走自主创新之路已在业界成为共识,但是在“以市场换技术”错误原则的指导下,大量地引进外国直接投资,致使我国现有的轿车工业发展是以合资模式为主。如何从以合资模式为主转向以自主开发模式为主的战略选择已成为当前争论的焦点。本文在梳理各位专家学者的观点的基础上提出“限制合资,逐步转向自主开发为主”新的战略构思,及为了实现这一战略的对策建议。
The facts that Chinese“market for technology”strategy repeatedly fell into the trap of catching up in the past 20 years have proved that it is impossible for Chinese car industry to achieve the goal of catching up via joint venture mode. After exploring and debating for so many years, it has become a consensus that Chinese automobile industry must take the road of independent innovation, however, with the guidance of the wrong principle of“market for technology”, a large quantity of foreign direct investment flew into china, and now Chinese car industry is joint venture mode based. How to shift the joint venture mode based strategy to self-developing based mode strategy has become the focus of the current debate. In this paper, using the theories and methods of comparative advantage theory, foreign direct investment theory, late-developing advantage theory and game theory, the writer analyzes the operation mechanisms of foreign direct investment and joint venture mode, analyzing in-depth the late-developing advantage of Chinese car industry, the writer proposes the feature of leap-forward development mode of Chinese car industry. The author also sorts out the views of different experts and scholars and develops his new strategic concept of“restricted joint ventures, transfer to self-development gradually”and proposes his suggestions for achieving this strategy.
The economic and various factors of production endowments in developing countries are far behind developed countries, the advantage of developing countries are their relative cheaper primary labor and certain non-renewable natural resources. If developing countries produce and export primary products or labor-intensive products in accordance with the comparative advantage, although they can acquire trade interests in the trade with developed countries that produce technology-intensive products mainly, thus the developing countries will always be in disadvantageous position in international trade, and can not reduce the economic gap between the developed countries, therefore they will inevitably be trapped in comparative advantage and the result is that the rich will be richer and the poor will be poorer. Chinese car enterprises fell into the“trap of joint venture”under the guidance of comparative advantage theory, after more than 20 years of joint venture, we not only lose the market, but also waste valuable time of chasing. From the perspective of comparative advantage, this paper establishes the game models between developed countries and between developed and developing countries, and the conclusion of the models can prove that comparative advantage theory completely suited to international trade and the international division of labor between developed countries. However, if the developing countries develop their international trade following comparative advantage, they will inevitably be trapped in comparative advantage. China as a late-developing country in car industry, it must adjust its own development strategies, and breakthrough the shackle of comparative advantage.
The author analyzes and compares the main features of development modes in automobile industry developing countries such as Japan, South Korea and Brazil. And their development modes are important reference for Chinese car industry.
FDI is the major business tool for multinational companies to achieve the optimizing the allocation of resources and maximizing profits in global scale. Multinational corporations have no pure motive of transferring technology, and they won’t take the initiative to meet the needs of the host country to transfer technology. The competitive advantage of developed countries lies in its own technology, capital and other modern economic dominant elements. The purpose of the foreign direct investment of transnational corporations is not to train their own potential competitors by using their own technology. In order to compete in a superior position, it is impossible for the multinational corporations to transfer all of their first-class technology. Under the guidance of wrong principle of“market for technology”, China introduced a large number of foreign direct investment, which cause major development mode of Chinese current car industry is joint venture, however, China didn’t obtain the core technology for developing car through joint venture, technology spillover will never automatically form technological capacity of developing products. Technology spillover caused by the direct investment is just the production mode of developed countries. After cooperating with foreign automobile enterprises, we have not mastered the key technology of car. We should improve the independent development ability via importing technology through cooperating with the foreign auto enterprises. We need more independent innovation and Cherry and Geely have given us good examples.
Overview the history of world economic development, the unbalanced economic development in various countries or regions is almost a law that has never changed, that is, once leader declined, and the original lag behind caught up with him, or even surpassed him. In other words, development is not the patent of developed countries, and late-development is not the fate of developing countries. China is automobile industry developing country, it has strong subsequent advantage, however, Chinese car industry won’t skip over various traps which are set by developed countries, and realize national industrial takeoff and upgrade the level of industrialization quickly and thus achieve leap-forward development of Chinese car industry as a whole until China take the subsequent advantage strategy. The author proposes for the first time the main characteristics of Chinese car industry leap-forward development model: 1) Chinese car industry development must be led by the government; 2) enterprise is the key of Chinese auto industry development; 3) independent development is a important part of independent development of Chinese car industry; 4) independent brands is a sign of intellectual property rights; 5) simulation innovation is the only way to achieve leap-forward development. The facts that Chinese“market for technology”strategy repeatedly fell into the trap of catching up in the past 20 years have proved that it is impossible for Chinese car industry to achieve the goal of catching up via joint venture mode. After exploring and debating for so many years, it has become a consensus that Chinese automobile industry must take the road of independent innovation, however, with the guidance of the wrong principle of“market for technology”, a large quantity of foreign direct investment flew into china, and now Chinese car industry is joint venture mode based. How to shift the joint venture mode based strategy to self-developing based mode strategy has become the focus of the current debate. In this paper, the author sorts out the views of different experts and scholars and develops his new strategic concept of“restricted joint ventures, transfer to self-development gradually”, so as to shift the joint venture mode based strategy to self-developing based mode strategy smoothly and orderly.
Chinese car industry leapfrog development strategy is a strategy with the aid of the subsequent advantage, therefore, it can’t completely conform to or rely on the market mechanism and regulation, the government mast pay its full role in guiding the strategy and formulate effective policy support. Its main policy tools include: develop the innovation strategy for auto industry development; draw up a series of restrictions on joint venture and mandatory on innovation; increase the intensity of investment, focus on supporting technology digestion, absorption and innovation; formulate a series of preferential policies on taxes and levies, reduce the production cost of enterprises which focus on self-development, enhance the competitiveness of auto enterprises; carry out the government procurement policy and support self-development and self-brands; deepen the reformation of shareholding system of state-owned enterprises, improve the modern enterprise system, select those with national determination and capability to lead independent innovation; develop a human resource strategy, absorb domestic and abroad intellectual resources in variety way to service independent innovation of Chinese car industry.
文中分析了典型的汽车工业后起国日本、韩国和巴西发展模式的主要特点,并对他们的发展模式进行了比较分析。这些汽车工业后起国的发展模式是发展我国轿车工业的重要借鉴。
文中阐述了与合资模式有关的外商直接投资理论,叙述合资方式已成为发展我国轿车工业的主导模式的发展轨迹。分析了我国轿车工业选择合资模式的背景与合资企业的经济效益、合资企业的技术转移效应、合资企业的技术溢出效益,从理论和实践两个角度论述合资陷阱。
运用后发优势理论,分析中国轿车工业的后发优势,提出我国轿车工业跨越式发展模式,重点分析了我国轿车工业跨越式发展模式的特征。
近二十年来我国“市场换技术”策略屡屡重蹈“创新追赶陷阱”的事实证明我国轿车工业不可能通过合资模式来实现赶超的目标。经过多年的探索和争论,中国汽车产业必须走自主创新之路已在业界成为共识,但是在“以市场换技术”错误原则的指导下,大量地引进外国直接投资,致使我国现有的轿车工业发展是以合资模式为主。如何从以合资模式为主转向以自主开发模式为主的战略选择已成为当前争论的焦点。本文在梳理各位专家学者的观点的基础上提出“限制合资,逐步转向自主开发为主”新的战略构思,及为了实现这一战略的对策建议。
The facts that Chinese“market for technology”strategy repeatedly fell into the trap of catching up in the past 20 years have proved that it is impossible for Chinese car industry to achieve the goal of catching up via joint venture mode. After exploring and debating for so many years, it has become a consensus that Chinese automobile industry must take the road of independent innovation, however, with the guidance of the wrong principle of“market for technology”, a large quantity of foreign direct investment flew into china, and now Chinese car industry is joint venture mode based. How to shift the joint venture mode based strategy to self-developing based mode strategy has become the focus of the current debate. In this paper, using the theories and methods of comparative advantage theory, foreign direct investment theory, late-developing advantage theory and game theory, the writer analyzes the operation mechanisms of foreign direct investment and joint venture mode, analyzing in-depth the late-developing advantage of Chinese car industry, the writer proposes the feature of leap-forward development mode of Chinese car industry. The author also sorts out the views of different experts and scholars and develops his new strategic concept of“restricted joint ventures, transfer to self-development gradually”and proposes his suggestions for achieving this strategy.
The economic and various factors of production endowments in developing countries are far behind developed countries, the advantage of developing countries are their relative cheaper primary labor and certain non-renewable natural resources. If developing countries produce and export primary products or labor-intensive products in accordance with the comparative advantage, although they can acquire trade interests in the trade with developed countries that produce technology-intensive products mainly, thus the developing countries will always be in disadvantageous position in international trade, and can not reduce the economic gap between the developed countries, therefore they will inevitably be trapped in comparative advantage and the result is that the rich will be richer and the poor will be poorer. Chinese car enterprises fell into the“trap of joint venture”under the guidance of comparative advantage theory, after more than 20 years of joint venture, we not only lose the market, but also waste valuable time of chasing. From the perspective of comparative advantage, this paper establishes the game models between developed countries and between developed and developing countries, and the conclusion of the models can prove that comparative advantage theory completely suited to international trade and the international division of labor between developed countries. However, if the developing countries develop their international trade following comparative advantage, they will inevitably be trapped in comparative advantage. China as a late-developing country in car industry, it must adjust its own development strategies, and breakthrough the shackle of comparative advantage.
The author analyzes and compares the main features of development modes in automobile industry developing countries such as Japan, South Korea and Brazil. And their development modes are important reference for Chinese car industry.
FDI is the major business tool for multinational companies to achieve the optimizing the allocation of resources and maximizing profits in global scale. Multinational corporations have no pure motive of transferring technology, and they won’t take the initiative to meet the needs of the host country to transfer technology. The competitive advantage of developed countries lies in its own technology, capital and other modern economic dominant elements. The purpose of the foreign direct investment of transnational corporations is not to train their own potential competitors by using their own technology. In order to compete in a superior position, it is impossible for the multinational corporations to transfer all of their first-class technology. Under the guidance of wrong principle of“market for technology”, China introduced a large number of foreign direct investment, which cause major development mode of Chinese current car industry is joint venture, however, China didn’t obtain the core technology for developing car through joint venture, technology spillover will never automatically form technological capacity of developing products. Technology spillover caused by the direct investment is just the production mode of developed countries. After cooperating with foreign automobile enterprises, we have not mastered the key technology of car. We should improve the independent development ability via importing technology through cooperating with the foreign auto enterprises. We need more independent innovation and Cherry and Geely have given us good examples.
Overview the history of world economic development, the unbalanced economic development in various countries or regions is almost a law that has never changed, that is, once leader declined, and the original lag behind caught up with him, or even surpassed him. In other words, development is not the patent of developed countries, and late-development is not the fate of developing countries. China is automobile industry developing country, it has strong subsequent advantage, however, Chinese car industry won’t skip over various traps which are set by developed countries, and realize national industrial takeoff and upgrade the level of industrialization quickly and thus achieve leap-forward development of Chinese car industry as a whole until China take the subsequent advantage strategy. The author proposes for the first time the main characteristics of Chinese car industry leap-forward development model: 1) Chinese car industry development must be led by the government; 2) enterprise is the key of Chinese auto industry development; 3) independent development is a important part of independent development of Chinese car industry; 4) independent brands is a sign of intellectual property rights; 5) simulation innovation is the only way to achieve leap-forward development. The facts that Chinese“market for technology”strategy repeatedly fell into the trap of catching up in the past 20 years have proved that it is impossible for Chinese car industry to achieve the goal of catching up via joint venture mode. After exploring and debating for so many years, it has become a consensus that Chinese automobile industry must take the road of independent innovation, however, with the guidance of the wrong principle of“market for technology”, a large quantity of foreign direct investment flew into china, and now Chinese car industry is joint venture mode based. How to shift the joint venture mode based strategy to self-developing based mode strategy has become the focus of the current debate. In this paper, the author sorts out the views of different experts and scholars and develops his new strategic concept of“restricted joint ventures, transfer to self-development gradually”, so as to shift the joint venture mode based strategy to self-developing based mode strategy smoothly and orderly.
Chinese car industry leapfrog development strategy is a strategy with the aid of the subsequent advantage, therefore, it can’t completely conform to or rely on the market mechanism and regulation, the government mast pay its full role in guiding the strategy and formulate effective policy support. Its main policy tools include: develop the innovation strategy for auto industry development; draw up a series of restrictions on joint venture and mandatory on innovation; increase the intensity of investment, focus on supporting technology digestion, absorption and innovation; formulate a series of preferential policies on taxes and levies, reduce the production cost of enterprises which focus on self-development, enhance the competitiveness of auto enterprises; carry out the government procurement policy and support self-development and self-brands; deepen the reformation of shareholding system of state-owned enterprises, improve the modern enterprise system, select those with national determination and capability to lead independent innovation; develop a human resource strategy, absorb domestic and abroad intellectual resources in variety way to service independent innovation of Chinese car industry.
引文
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