人类资源供给与需求增长模型研究
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摘要
自然资源是人类赖以生存的物质基础,它是一个很宽泛的概念。从哲学或物理学的意义上来讲,它是不以人们意志为转移的客观物质。资源经济学所表述的“资源”不同于一般意义上的自然资源。从资源经济学意义上来划分,自然资源包括两部分,一是人类资源,二是非人类资源。人类资源有社会性,非人类资源没有社会性。人类资源的社会性在经济学中的表现为,客观存在上的稀缺性和主观使用上的效率性。本论文的研究是以人类资源作为研究起点,探讨人类资源的供给如何从丰裕到短缺,再由短缺到丰裕的过程。
随着人类社会的发展,社会经济发展和人类资源不断增长已是一个不争的事实,级数增长是人类社会发展的一个普遍规律。在古典经济学家中,对人类资源供给与需求增长关系的表述,最直观和影响最大的是英国经济学家马尔萨斯。罗马俱乐部的报告《增长的极限》,用“模型和指数增长”的方法,说明诸多因素与经济增长的关系。但是,人类社会发展是一个历史的过程,在不同的社会经济形态中,有着不同的生产力水平和不同的生产关系,不同的科学技术水平和资源配置方式,有着不同的生产方式和生活方式。不区分时代特征,线性的或绝对的理解人类资源供给与需求增长关系往往会得出错误甚至荒谬的结论。
社会经济形态是社会经济时代和社会经济制度的总称,是指在各个历史时期一定生产力发展水平并与之相适应的生产关系的总和。社会经济时代划分为:游牧时代、农耕时代、工业时代、信息时代、集约时代。社会经济制度划分为:原始社会、奴隶社会、封建社会、资本主义社会、社会主义社会和共产主义社会。
本文用三个数学级数即算术级数、斐波那契级数、几何级数,按一定的规则排列成一组数,根据每一组数的排列关系,反映人类资源供给与需求增长的级数关系。由于各个时代的社会经济条件不同,经济增长方式也不相同,会产生不同级数的比例关系。人类资源供给与需求的级数关系在不同的时代反映是:游牧时代人类资源供给按几何级数增长,需求按斐波那契级数增长,供给大于需求。农耕时代人类资源供给按斐波那契级数增长,需求按算术级数增长,供给大于需求。工业时代人类资源供给按算术级数增长,需求按几何级数增长,供给小于需求。信息时代人类资源供给按斐波那契级数增长,需求按算术级数增长,供给大于需求。集约时代人类资源供给按几何级数增长,需求按斐波那契级数增长,供给大于需求。
根据人类资源供给与需求增长的级数关系,构建了“人类资源供给与需求增长模型”。该模型说明人类资源的增长过程,客观上存在五种量变形式,即游牧时代的量变、农耕时代的量变、工业时代的量变、信息时代的量变、集约时代的量变;经历四次质变飞跃,即游牧时代向农耕时代的飞跃、农耕时代向工业时代的飞跃、工业时代向信息时代的飞跃、信息时代向集约时代的飞跃;形成一个以游牧时代为起点、以集约时代为高级阶段的否定之否定的不可逆的螺旋发展过程(简称:五种量变、四次飞跃、一个螺旋发展过程)。该模型的研究,以科学发展观为指导思想,揭示人类社会可持续发展的必然过程,说明人类社会利用自然资源的光明前景。
Natural resources, as the material basis of human survival, have a very broad concept. In the philosophical or physical sense, it is considered as the objective substance independent of man’s will, which differs from the general sense of the natural resources in the conceptual domain. Natural resources, from the perspective of resources economics, can be divided into human resources and non-human resources, with the former socially-featured while the latter not. Economically, the social attributes of human resources show rarity in existence and efficiency in use. This paper takes the study of human resources as a starting point to research how the supply of human resources transfer from the affluence to the shortage, and then from shortage to affluence process.
With the development of human society, the socio-economic growth is an indisputable fact and the progression growth is a universal law of human social development. Among the classical economists, the British economist Malthus gave the most intuitive and most influential formulation on the human resources’supply and demand growth relations. According to the report "the Limits of Growth"( Roman Club), many factors are related to economic growth by the“model and the exponential growth" approach. However, the development of human society is a historical process, during which different socio-economic patterns are in accordance with different levels of productive forces and production relations, different sci-tech level and allocation of resources, and different production modes and lifestyle. Linear or abstractive understanding of human resources supply-demand growth relations unavoidably leads to wrong or even absurd conclusions without the concern of variant age characteristics.
Social economic pattern is the general term for the combination of social economic era and social economic system, indicating the integration of production development level and its production relations in each historical period. The social economy era can be divided into the pastoral age, agricultural age, industrial age, information age and intensive age. And the social economic system includes primitive society, slavery society, feudal society, capitalist society, socialist society and communist society. This paper intends to apply three mathematic progressions, namely arithmetic progression, Fibonacci progression and geometric progression to arrange the numbers into several groups by certain rules. And the permutation relationship of each group will reflect the progression relationship between the increase in supply and the increase in demand of human resources. Different social economic conditions in different stages bring about different economic growth modes, hence different proportional relationship of different progressions. The progression relationship between supply-and-demand of human resources in different stages is shown as follows: the pastoral stage saw the supply increasing based on geometric progression, while the demand increasing on Fibonacci progression, with the supply over the demand; the agricultural stage saw the supply increasing based on Fibonacci progression, while the demand increasing on arithmetic progression, with the supply over the demand; the industrial stage witnessed the supply increasing based on arithmetic progression, while the demand increasing on geometric progression with the demand over the supply; the information stage witnesses the supply increasing based on Fibonacci progression, while the demand increasing on arithmetic progression, with the supply over the demand; and the intensive stage sees the supply increasing based on geometric progression, while the demand increasing on Fibonacci progression, with the supply over the demand;
Human Resources Supply-Demand Growth Model is constructed based on the study of progression relation between human resources supply and demand,. This model indicates the whole growth process of human resources which can be abbreviated to the following: Five Quantitative Changes, Four Leap-forwards and One Helical Development Process. Five Quantitative Changes means the quantitative variation in five eras respectively, namely, the Pastoral Age, the Agrarian Age, the Industrial Age, the Information Age and the Intensive Age. The Four Leap-forwards of Qualitative Changes suggest the leap from Pastoral Age to Agrarian Age, followed by the advancement from Agrarian Age to Industrial Age, then from Industrial Age to Information Age, and finally the advancing from Information Age to Intensive Age. And along with them, a Helical Development Process is formed with the Pastoral Age as the starting point, and ends up with the Intensive Age as the advanced stage, which has accomplished the process consistent with the negation of negation law in a philosophical sense. With the guidance of Scientific Outlook on Development, it is revealed that the sustainable development of human society is an inevitable process and that the utilization of human resources has a promising future.
随着人类社会的发展,社会经济发展和人类资源不断增长已是一个不争的事实,级数增长是人类社会发展的一个普遍规律。在古典经济学家中,对人类资源供给与需求增长关系的表述,最直观和影响最大的是英国经济学家马尔萨斯。罗马俱乐部的报告《增长的极限》,用“模型和指数增长”的方法,说明诸多因素与经济增长的关系。但是,人类社会发展是一个历史的过程,在不同的社会经济形态中,有着不同的生产力水平和不同的生产关系,不同的科学技术水平和资源配置方式,有着不同的生产方式和生活方式。不区分时代特征,线性的或绝对的理解人类资源供给与需求增长关系往往会得出错误甚至荒谬的结论。
社会经济形态是社会经济时代和社会经济制度的总称,是指在各个历史时期一定生产力发展水平并与之相适应的生产关系的总和。社会经济时代划分为:游牧时代、农耕时代、工业时代、信息时代、集约时代。社会经济制度划分为:原始社会、奴隶社会、封建社会、资本主义社会、社会主义社会和共产主义社会。
本文用三个数学级数即算术级数、斐波那契级数、几何级数,按一定的规则排列成一组数,根据每一组数的排列关系,反映人类资源供给与需求增长的级数关系。由于各个时代的社会经济条件不同,经济增长方式也不相同,会产生不同级数的比例关系。人类资源供给与需求的级数关系在不同的时代反映是:游牧时代人类资源供给按几何级数增长,需求按斐波那契级数增长,供给大于需求。农耕时代人类资源供给按斐波那契级数增长,需求按算术级数增长,供给大于需求。工业时代人类资源供给按算术级数增长,需求按几何级数增长,供给小于需求。信息时代人类资源供给按斐波那契级数增长,需求按算术级数增长,供给大于需求。集约时代人类资源供给按几何级数增长,需求按斐波那契级数增长,供给大于需求。
根据人类资源供给与需求增长的级数关系,构建了“人类资源供给与需求增长模型”。该模型说明人类资源的增长过程,客观上存在五种量变形式,即游牧时代的量变、农耕时代的量变、工业时代的量变、信息时代的量变、集约时代的量变;经历四次质变飞跃,即游牧时代向农耕时代的飞跃、农耕时代向工业时代的飞跃、工业时代向信息时代的飞跃、信息时代向集约时代的飞跃;形成一个以游牧时代为起点、以集约时代为高级阶段的否定之否定的不可逆的螺旋发展过程(简称:五种量变、四次飞跃、一个螺旋发展过程)。该模型的研究,以科学发展观为指导思想,揭示人类社会可持续发展的必然过程,说明人类社会利用自然资源的光明前景。
Natural resources, as the material basis of human survival, have a very broad concept. In the philosophical or physical sense, it is considered as the objective substance independent of man’s will, which differs from the general sense of the natural resources in the conceptual domain. Natural resources, from the perspective of resources economics, can be divided into human resources and non-human resources, with the former socially-featured while the latter not. Economically, the social attributes of human resources show rarity in existence and efficiency in use. This paper takes the study of human resources as a starting point to research how the supply of human resources transfer from the affluence to the shortage, and then from shortage to affluence process.
With the development of human society, the socio-economic growth is an indisputable fact and the progression growth is a universal law of human social development. Among the classical economists, the British economist Malthus gave the most intuitive and most influential formulation on the human resources’supply and demand growth relations. According to the report "the Limits of Growth"( Roman Club), many factors are related to economic growth by the“model and the exponential growth" approach. However, the development of human society is a historical process, during which different socio-economic patterns are in accordance with different levels of productive forces and production relations, different sci-tech level and allocation of resources, and different production modes and lifestyle. Linear or abstractive understanding of human resources supply-demand growth relations unavoidably leads to wrong or even absurd conclusions without the concern of variant age characteristics.
Social economic pattern is the general term for the combination of social economic era and social economic system, indicating the integration of production development level and its production relations in each historical period. The social economy era can be divided into the pastoral age, agricultural age, industrial age, information age and intensive age. And the social economic system includes primitive society, slavery society, feudal society, capitalist society, socialist society and communist society. This paper intends to apply three mathematic progressions, namely arithmetic progression, Fibonacci progression and geometric progression to arrange the numbers into several groups by certain rules. And the permutation relationship of each group will reflect the progression relationship between the increase in supply and the increase in demand of human resources. Different social economic conditions in different stages bring about different economic growth modes, hence different proportional relationship of different progressions. The progression relationship between supply-and-demand of human resources in different stages is shown as follows: the pastoral stage saw the supply increasing based on geometric progression, while the demand increasing on Fibonacci progression, with the supply over the demand; the agricultural stage saw the supply increasing based on Fibonacci progression, while the demand increasing on arithmetic progression, with the supply over the demand; the industrial stage witnessed the supply increasing based on arithmetic progression, while the demand increasing on geometric progression with the demand over the supply; the information stage witnesses the supply increasing based on Fibonacci progression, while the demand increasing on arithmetic progression, with the supply over the demand; and the intensive stage sees the supply increasing based on geometric progression, while the demand increasing on Fibonacci progression, with the supply over the demand;
Human Resources Supply-Demand Growth Model is constructed based on the study of progression relation between human resources supply and demand,. This model indicates the whole growth process of human resources which can be abbreviated to the following: Five Quantitative Changes, Four Leap-forwards and One Helical Development Process. Five Quantitative Changes means the quantitative variation in five eras respectively, namely, the Pastoral Age, the Agrarian Age, the Industrial Age, the Information Age and the Intensive Age. The Four Leap-forwards of Qualitative Changes suggest the leap from Pastoral Age to Agrarian Age, followed by the advancement from Agrarian Age to Industrial Age, then from Industrial Age to Information Age, and finally the advancing from Information Age to Intensive Age. And along with them, a Helical Development Process is formed with the Pastoral Age as the starting point, and ends up with the Intensive Age as the advanced stage, which has accomplished the process consistent with the negation of negation law in a philosophical sense. With the guidance of Scientific Outlook on Development, it is revealed that the sustainable development of human society is an inevitable process and that the utilization of human resources has a promising future.
引文
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