概率安全评价中人因可靠性分析技术研究
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摘要
人因失误／人因事故已是大规模人-机系统最主要的事故源之一，所以人因可靠性分析(HRA)也就成为概率安全评价(PSA)的重要组成部分。由于HRA分析对象的复杂性及分析方法、技术的多样性和不成熟性，致使HRA结果有较大的不确定性，对PSA的质量和可信性造成很大的影响和冲击。该问题已引起国际原子能机构(IAEA)和安全管理界的高度关注，但尚未较好地解决。
通过对大规模复杂人—机系统运行控制特征的分析，建立了大规模复杂人—机系统人员认知行为模型，并据此对该系统中人因失误的分类与产生机制进行了分析，获得了诱发大规模复杂人-机系统人因事故的主要因素，进而提出了人因失误结构模型和人因事故成因模型，为建立HRA技术奠定了理论基础。
通过分析PSA对HRA的本质需求，发现只有具备有效性、可用性和可靠性的HRA方法，才能完全地承担其应在PSA中扮演的角色。有效性包括完备性、完整性、准确性、灵敏性。可用性包括数据可用性、程序化、适用性、易用性。可靠性包括结果一致性、数据可信性、模型和假设可证明、结论可比较性。通过对现行12种主要HRA方法的比较分析，进一步证明了上述结论。
以有效性、可用性和可靠性为基本框架，构建了HRA技术规范化准则。按该准则建立了PSA中规范化HRA技术，其由规范化分析模型、规范化技术程序、规范化基本数据三部分有机构成。其中分析模型为THERP+HCR，它由THERP和HCR模型整合而成，与时间密切相关的诊断等行为分析使用HCR，而与时间不甚相关的观测、操作等行为则使用THERP，两者相互补充，其间用一时间函数连接，共同构成一个有机整体。技术程序包含事故前HRA程序、激发初因HRA程序、事故后HRA程序三个子程序，覆盖了事故的全过程。基本数据包括数据采集与分析基本技术和数据管理系统。使用该规范化HRA技术能在现有条件下最大限度地消除HRA／PSA之不足。文中给出了该技术的一个应用实例。
在国内首次利用真实核电厂全尺寸模拟机实施了操纵员可靠性实验，获得了中国本土的人的认知可靠性基本数据。实验选择包含技能型、规则型和知识型三种认知类型、对电厂运行安全有重大影响的23个异常事件(55个HIs)，对38名操纵员事件响应状况和时间进行录像和记录，取得764个数据点，经数据处理和分析后获得适合秦山核电厂系统与人员特性的HRA／HCR模型基本参数。
本文所建立的规范化HRA技术和模拟机实验获得的人因可靠性数据已通过
概率安全评价中人因可靠性分析技术研究
IAEA评审，且被秦山核电厂HRA/P SA项目采用，其还可推广到其它领域。
本文受国家自然科学基金项目(79870004，70271016)和国防军工技术基础
计划项目(2012000A003，2012002A001)资助。
关键词:概率安全评价;人因可靠性分析;规范化:人因可靠性模型;分析程序;
人因可靠性数据
Human errors/human-caused accidents are the major cause for the accidents in large-scale man-machine system, so human reliability analysis (HRA) has become an important part of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). Due to the complexity of HRA object and the variety and immaturity of its techniques the HRA result possesses great uncertainty which has a great influence and impact upon the credibility and quality of PSA. The problem has received high attention from International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) and safety management area but remains unresolved.A cognitive behavior model of large-scale complicated man-machine systems is established through the analysis upon their operational control characteristics. The classification and formation mechanism of human errors in them are analyzed on the basis of the above study and the main factors causing human errors of large-scale complicated man-machine systems are obtained. Therefore, a human error structure model and a human error formation model are brought forward to settle a theoretical foundation for HRA technique.The paper finds that only an available, usable and reliable HRA method can play complete part in PSA through an analysis of the fundamental demand of PSA upon HRA. Availability includes perfectiveness, integrality, accuracy and sensitiveness. Usability involves easy-to-use, a ready procedure, applicability and widely acceptable data. Reliability concerns a consistent result, credible data, a probative model and hypothesis and a comparable result, which has been further proved through research by making comparisons on present 12 major HRA techniques.This paper builds a HRA guiding standard on the basic framework of availability, usability and reliability. According to the standard a standardized HRA technique is established in PSA. This technique is composed of three parts: standardized model, standardized procedure and standardized basic data. The model adopted is a THERP+HCR Mode which is made up of models of THERP and HCR. The diagnosis actions closely related to time are analyzed by HCR while the actions of observation and operation which are not closely related to time by THERP. These two are mutually complementary while time function is used to be a joint to construct an organic whole.
The procedure includes those of pre-accident HRA, initiating events HRA and post-accident HRA which cover the whole course of an accident. Basic data include data collection basic guide and data management system. The standardized HRA technique can eliminate the defects of HRA/PSA to the greatest extent under nowadays conditions . A HRA case is used to make an illustration in the paper.An operator reliability experiment was firstly conducted in a real nuclear power plant full-size simulator in China. Three cognitive patterns of skill-based, rule-based and knowledge-based involving 23 abnormal events (55 human system interactions) which are closely related to the plant safety were included in the experiment. 38 operators' response conditions and times were kinescoped and recorded and 764 data points were collected. All these data were processed and analyzed to acquire the HRA/HCR Model basic parameters adaptable to Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant system and personnel.The standardized HRA technique and human reliability data acquired in simulator experiment have been reviewed by IAEA and adopted by Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant HRA/PSA project and can be widely used in other areas.
通过对大规模复杂人—机系统运行控制特征的分析，建立了大规模复杂人—机系统人员认知行为模型，并据此对该系统中人因失误的分类与产生机制进行了分析，获得了诱发大规模复杂人-机系统人因事故的主要因素，进而提出了人因失误结构模型和人因事故成因模型，为建立HRA技术奠定了理论基础。
通过分析PSA对HRA的本质需求，发现只有具备有效性、可用性和可靠性的HRA方法，才能完全地承担其应在PSA中扮演的角色。有效性包括完备性、完整性、准确性、灵敏性。可用性包括数据可用性、程序化、适用性、易用性。可靠性包括结果一致性、数据可信性、模型和假设可证明、结论可比较性。通过对现行12种主要HRA方法的比较分析，进一步证明了上述结论。
以有效性、可用性和可靠性为基本框架，构建了HRA技术规范化准则。按该准则建立了PSA中规范化HRA技术，其由规范化分析模型、规范化技术程序、规范化基本数据三部分有机构成。其中分析模型为THERP+HCR，它由THERP和HCR模型整合而成，与时间密切相关的诊断等行为分析使用HCR，而与时间不甚相关的观测、操作等行为则使用THERP，两者相互补充，其间用一时间函数连接，共同构成一个有机整体。技术程序包含事故前HRA程序、激发初因HRA程序、事故后HRA程序三个子程序，覆盖了事故的全过程。基本数据包括数据采集与分析基本技术和数据管理系统。使用该规范化HRA技术能在现有条件下最大限度地消除HRA／PSA之不足。文中给出了该技术的一个应用实例。
在国内首次利用真实核电厂全尺寸模拟机实施了操纵员可靠性实验，获得了中国本土的人的认知可靠性基本数据。实验选择包含技能型、规则型和知识型三种认知类型、对电厂运行安全有重大影响的23个异常事件(55个HIs)，对38名操纵员事件响应状况和时间进行录像和记录，取得764个数据点，经数据处理和分析后获得适合秦山核电厂系统与人员特性的HRA／HCR模型基本参数。
本文所建立的规范化HRA技术和模拟机实验获得的人因可靠性数据已通过
概率安全评价中人因可靠性分析技术研究
IAEA评审，且被秦山核电厂HRA/P SA项目采用，其还可推广到其它领域。
本文受国家自然科学基金项目(79870004，70271016)和国防军工技术基础
计划项目(2012000A003，2012002A001)资助。
关键词:概率安全评价;人因可靠性分析;规范化:人因可靠性模型;分析程序;
人因可靠性数据
Human errors/human-caused accidents are the major cause for the accidents in large-scale man-machine system, so human reliability analysis (HRA) has become an important part of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). Due to the complexity of HRA object and the variety and immaturity of its techniques the HRA result possesses great uncertainty which has a great influence and impact upon the credibility and quality of PSA. The problem has received high attention from International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) and safety management area but remains unresolved.A cognitive behavior model of large-scale complicated man-machine systems is established through the analysis upon their operational control characteristics. The classification and formation mechanism of human errors in them are analyzed on the basis of the above study and the main factors causing human errors of large-scale complicated man-machine systems are obtained. Therefore, a human error structure model and a human error formation model are brought forward to settle a theoretical foundation for HRA technique.The paper finds that only an available, usable and reliable HRA method can play complete part in PSA through an analysis of the fundamental demand of PSA upon HRA. Availability includes perfectiveness, integrality, accuracy and sensitiveness. Usability involves easy-to-use, a ready procedure, applicability and widely acceptable data. Reliability concerns a consistent result, credible data, a probative model and hypothesis and a comparable result, which has been further proved through research by making comparisons on present 12 major HRA techniques.This paper builds a HRA guiding standard on the basic framework of availability, usability and reliability. According to the standard a standardized HRA technique is established in PSA. This technique is composed of three parts: standardized model, standardized procedure and standardized basic data. The model adopted is a THERP+HCR Mode which is made up of models of THERP and HCR. The diagnosis actions closely related to time are analyzed by HCR while the actions of observation and operation which are not closely related to time by THERP. These two are mutually complementary while time function is used to be a joint to construct an organic whole.
The procedure includes those of pre-accident HRA, initiating events HRA and post-accident HRA which cover the whole course of an accident. Basic data include data collection basic guide and data management system. The standardized HRA technique can eliminate the defects of HRA/PSA to the greatest extent under nowadays conditions . A HRA case is used to make an illustration in the paper.An operator reliability experiment was firstly conducted in a real nuclear power plant full-size simulator in China. Three cognitive patterns of skill-based, rule-based and knowledge-based involving 23 abnormal events (55 human system interactions) which are closely related to the plant safety were included in the experiment. 38 operators' response conditions and times were kinescoped and recorded and 764 data points were collected. All these data were processed and analyzed to acquire the HRA/HCR Model basic parameters adaptable to Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant system and personnel.The standardized HRA technique and human reliability data acquired in simulator experiment have been reviewed by IAEA and adopted by Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant HRA/PSA project and can be widely used in other areas.
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