云南省盘龙河流域河流悬移质输移变化及其对环境变化的响应
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摘要
摘要：河流泥沙浓度的变化是区域生态环境发生变化的结果,不仅会直接引起河道的冲淤演变,对所处流域的工程、湿地、环境、生物多样性等也将产生难以预测的影响。我国多沙河流众多,泥沙问题非常严重,水沙灾害严重地制约着国民经济的持续快速发展,对泥沙的深入认识也成为了水文学研究的当务之急。本研究以红河支流盘龙河流域为研究区域,利用小波分析、混沌、分形、神经网络、“3S"技术等数学方法,研究了龙潭寨水文站输沙的变化规律,探讨了流域内气候、人类活动的各要素与泥沙之间的相互影响和响应状况,取得如下成果和认识：
1.时间序列特征分析结果表明,盘龙河流域河流输沙率自1953至1997年一直呈现出波动上升的趋势,而1998年以来有下降的倾向；输沙率的变化具有多时间尺度特征,不同时段振荡强度不同；就周期性而言,输沙率存在有4、7、22年的振荡周期,其中22年的振荡周期最为明显,贯穿整个研究时段,4年和7年尺度上局部特征突出；在4、7、22年时间尺度上分析输沙率的突变特征得知,4年尺度上的突变有27次,7年尺度上的突变有15次,22年尺度上的突变有5次,长时间尺度上嵌套着短时间尺度。此外,输沙率时间序列的多时间尺度、周期性、突变性特征是由气候要素所决定。
2.非线性特征分析结果表明,流域悬移质的输移过程具有混沌和分形这两种主要的非线性特征。从混沌特征来看,控制站龙潭寨水文站月均输沙率的最小嵌入维m=11,饱和关联维D2=1.8387,最大Lyapunov指数λ1=0.108,Kolmogorov熵K=0.1818,表征了盘龙河月均输沙率的最大可预报时间约为9个月,平均可预报时间约为6个月。从分形分析的结果来看,盘龙河月均输沙率的Hurst指数H=0.7781>0.5,分形维数D=1.2219。
3.分析河流悬移质输移变化与土地利用变化之间的对应关系时表明,盘龙河流域河流悬移质输沙的趋势性特征是其对土地利用变化,特别是其中的林地面积变化的趋势性所作出的响应。这主要是由于土地利用与土壤侵蚀之间有密切的关系,土地利用方式变迁必然导致土壤侵蚀强度发生改变,从而引起侵蚀产沙与河流输沙的相应调整的结果。
4.输沙率预测的小波神经网络耦合模型的因子选取结果表明,在构建气候水文变化对悬移质的影响模型中：加入径流量要素和考虑大雨及暴雨的影响后模型的预测效果更好；有一个月的滞后比没有滞后好,但不宜超过二个月；小波神经网络耦合模型的预测精度比普通BP模型高。在构建人类活动变化对悬移质的影响模型中：考虑林地面积和水库控制面积,及两者分别滞后一年,模型的预测精度有较大的提高,而加入耕地面积、水库库容、公路修建里程、水土保持面积、裸地面积、年采矿量、流域年末总人口等要素后,模型的预测精度有所提高,但没有明显的变化。
5.气候变化对河流悬移质输移的影响分析结果表明,相对于基准期,气候变化对输沙变化的综合影响在不同时段有所不同。但总体而言,随着时间的推移,气候变化对输沙变化的贡献呈现出逐渐减弱的趋势。此外,不同气候要素对输沙变化还具有不同的影响作用,降雨量对输沙变化的贡献最为重要,均超过了85%；气温的贡献为负作用,并且小于3%；大雨和暴雨对输沙也有一定的影响,但在6%以内。
河流悬移质对气候变化的响应分析结果为,降雨不变而气温升高将导致输沙的减少；气温不变,降雨增加则输沙增加,反之则减少,且降雨增加相同的幅度比减少相同幅度对输沙的影响更显著；气温升高同时降雨减少,则输沙朝减少的方向发展；气温升高同时降雨增加,输沙的变化相对较为复杂。此外,在人类活动加剧的情景下,输沙对同样的气候变化情景将变得更为敏感。
6.人类活动对河流悬移质输移的影响分析结果表明,相对于基准期,人类活动变化对输沙变化的综合影响在不同时段也不尽相同。总体而言,随着时间的推移,人类活动对输沙的控制有逐渐加强的态势。此外,不同人类活动要素对输移变化的影响具有不同的作用,林地对输沙变化的贡献最大,均超过了70%；对于耕地,从1958年至2005年一直趋于减少状态,对减少输沙的贡献也相应增加；就水库控制面积和库容而言,减沙贡献主要表现在研究时段初期；公路修建和采矿,在研究时段初期,两者对输沙增加的贡献相对较小,而进入90年代以来,它们对输沙的增加已经不可忽视；就水土保持面积而言,进入2000年以来,对减沙的贡献才达5.64%；裸地面积对输沙的贡献在初期为4.23%,90年代达到11.26%,进入21世纪以来,又降为10.57%；流域年末总人口对输沙的贡献均在4%左右。
河流悬移质对人类活动变化的响应分析结果为,耕地面积维持不变的情况下,林地面积的减少将导致输沙的升高,而林地面积增加将导致输沙减少；林地面积维持不变的情况下,耕地面积的减少将导致输沙的减少,反之则升高；耕地减少同时林地增加会导致输沙的减少；耕地增加同时林地减少将导致输沙的增加。此外,在气候变为较干旱时,输沙对同样的人类活动情景不敏感,反之则较为敏感。
7.未来气候变化下输沙的可能变化预测结果为,以2000-2005年的输沙为基准,至2050年研究区输沙的可能变化范围是增加0.15～16.8%。如若考虑到人类控制的加剧,输沙总体将朝减少的方向发展。
上述方法、思路与成果,为流域泥沙的研究注入了新的方法,拓展了泥沙研究的方向,丰富和完善了水文学的理论体系,加深了人类对流域泥沙过程的认知与理解,弥补了研究区相应领域的空白,具有积极的意义。
Abstract:The change of river sediment is the results that change of regional ecosystem environment. It will directly cause the scour and silting evolution of river channel, which seriously affect the engineering, wetland, environment, biodiversity, etc. There are many high sediment concentration rivers in China, and the sediment problem is very serious. Water and sediment disasters seriously restrict the sustainable, rapid development of the national economy. So further understanding of the sediment has become a very urgent task of hydrological research. This paper takes Panlonghe basin, the branch of Red river as the studied area, the wavelet, chaos, fractal, neural network, "3S" technology and various traditional mathematics methods as the study methods, to research the change regulation of sediment flux in Longtanzhai gauging station. Moreover, this paper also has researched the mutual influence and response among climate, human activity and sediment. At the last, we come to the conclusions as following:
1. The results of time series analysis showing that the suspended sediment flux of Panlonghe had been present a trend of waving ascension from 1953 to 1997 year. However, it had been present a trend of descendent tendency from 1998. The change of suspended sediment flux has multi-time scale characteristic, and the oscillation strength is different in different time period. To the periodic characteristic, the suspended sediment flux has the oscillation period of 4,7 and 22 year, in which the oscillation period in 22 year time scale is the most obvious, it run throughout the whole researched time. However, the local characteristic is outstanding both in 4 and 7 year time scale. If we analyze the abrupt characteristic in the 4,7 and 22 year time scale, we can come to the conclusion that in the 4 year time scale, abrupt change has 27 times, and in the 7 year time scale, abrupt change has 15 times, and in the 22 year time scale, abrupt change has 5 times. The long term time scale contains the short term time scale. In additional, the multi-time scales, periodic and abrupt change characteristic are controlled by the climate factors.
2. The results of nonlinear features analysis showing that the transportation processes of suspended sediment have the two kinds of nonlinear characteristics, that is, chaos and fractal. Firstly, from the aspects of chaos characteristic, to the mean month suspended sediment flux of Longtanzhai gauging station of Panlonghe river, the minimum embedding dimension m=11, saturation correlation dimension D2=1.8387, maximum Lyapunov exponentλ1=0.108, Kolmogorov entropy K=0.1818, which mean that the maximum possible forecast time is about 9 months, and the mean possible forecast time is about 6 months. Secondly, from the analysis results of fractal, to the mean month suspended sediment of Panlonghe river, the Hurst exponent H=0.7781>0.5, fractal dimension D=1.2219.
3. When analysis the relationship between river suspended sediment transportation and land use change in Panlonghe basin, we can come to the conclusions that the change trend characteristics of suspended sediment flux in Panlonghe basin is the results of land use change, and in particularly the changing of forest area. This was mainly due to land use and soil erosion have closely relationship, and the land use mode change will lead to soil erosion intensity change, thus leading to erosion and sediment transportation make corresponding adjustment.
4. This paper uses the Wavelet Network in the process of suspended sediment prediction. Firstly, in the model of sediment-climate, the input factors include four climate factors and only one hydrological factor. That is, rainfall, air temperature, the accumulative amount of daily rainfall≥25 and≥50 mm, and water discharge. After this step, we divided the models into four groups according to the different combination. The first group only includes rainfall and air temperature; the second group adds downfall and rainstorm except the two factors that the first group used; the third group adds the water discharge except the factors that the third group used; the fourth group only includes the water discharge. When come to the delay effect, we consider four conditions, that is, have no delay effect, one month delay, two and three months delay and four months delay respectively. The results are as following:if add the water discharge and consider the influence of downfall and rainstorm, the prediction precision will be improved; the best delay time is one month, the prediction precision will reduce if the models have no time delay or time delay excesses two months; the prediction precision of the Wavelet Network is better than the Back Propagation model. Secondly, in the model of suspended sediment and human activities, the input factors include nine factors, that is, woodland area, farmland area, capability and controlled area of reservoir, length of highway construction, the water and soil conservation area, year mining amount, bare land area and the total population in the studied area. The results are as following:add the on time and delay one year of woodland and reservoir controlled area to the sediment-climate models can improve the prediction precision. However, if add the farmland area, reservoir controlled area, length of highway construction, the water and soil conservation area, bare land area, year mining amount and the total population in the studied area to the model, the prediction precision improved slightly. It is clear that these factors influence the production and transportation of suspended sediment, but their effects are limited in the studied area.
5. The result of the influence of climate change to the suspended sediment flux showing that the influence of climate to the change of suspended sediment flux is different in the different period. In generally speaking, the contribution rate of climate change to the change of suspended sediment flux is weakening.
In this paper, we mainly consider the rainfall, temperature, downfall and rainstorm when study the influence of climate factors to sediment. The results are as following:comparing to the standard period, the contribution rate of rainfall to suspended sediment change is the most important, all excess 85%; the contribution of temperature to the suspended sediment flux change is counteractive, and less than 3%; downfall and rainstorm have certain influence to sediment, but the contribution rate are less than 6%.
After analyzing the response of sediment transportation to the climate change, we can come to some interesting conclusions. For the climate factors:the air temperature rising will lead to the sediment transportation decrease if the rainfall is not change; if the air temperature is not change, the influence of increase rain to sediment transportation is more observably when the rainfall have same decrease and increase range; if the air temperature rising with the rainfall decrease, the sediment transportation will decrease; if the air temperature rising with rainfall decrease, the sediment transportation change is more complicated. The sediment transportation will become more sensitive to the same climate change scenario under the scenario of human activity intensified.
6. The results of the influence of human activities to the suspended sediment flux showing that the influence of human to the change of suspended sediment flux is different in the different period too. In generally speaking, with the development of society, the control of human to the sediment is intensified.
From the results we know that:the contribution of woodland to the sediment transportation is the most important factor, it contribution all excess 70% in the four periods, so it is clear that the sediment transportation rising is caused by the woodland decrease; for the farmland, from 1958 to 2005 year, it has been presented decrease trend, so its contribution to sediment transportation decrease was increase; for the reservoir controlled area and capability, because almost all of the reservoir were built at 50 and 60's, so their effect of decrease sediment transportation were presented in the fore period, after 2000 its decrease sediment effect was very limited; for the road construction and mining, in the early period of the studied stage, their contribution to the sediment increase were very limited, but their contribution to the increase of sediment are can not be ignored since 1990s; for the water and soil conservation, it developed very slowly, and its contribution reaches to 5.64% since 2000s; for the bare land, its contribution to the sediment increase was 4.23% in the early period, and reached 11.26% in 90's, but decreased towards 10.57% when we got into 21st centuries; for the year-end total population, it does not contribute to the sediment transportation directly, but it influence sediment transportation through the other factors, and its contribution is about 4%.
After analyzing the response of sediment transportation to the human activities change we can come to the conclusions as following:when the farmland area doses not change, the decrease of woodland area will cause the sediment transportation increase, but the sediment will decrease if the woodland area decreases; when the woodland area doses not change, the decrease of farmland will cause the sediment transportation decrease, but the increase of farmland will cause the sediment transportation increase; woodland area increase with the farmland decrease, the sediment transportation will decrease; woodland area decrease with the farmland area increase, the sediment transportation will increase. So when we analyze the response of sediment transportation to both of the farmland and woodland area change, we need to analyze the special conditions based on the given environment. For the response of sediment transportation to the human activity under the climate change, the sediment transportation is not so sensitive when the climate becomes wetness.
7. For the possible change of sediment under the future climate in the studied area, if take the sediment transportation of 2000～2005 years as the reference, the possible change range of sediment transportation is 0.15～16.8%. However, if take the human controlling abilities are improved into the consideration, the total direction of sediment transportation may tend to decrease, which is alike many basins in the world.
In a word, the above mentioned results infused new scientific theories and mathematics method into the research of sediment in the basin, and developed new research direction. Not only they advanced the people's cognition and comprehension to the sediment transportation process, but also provided a theories basis for the establishment strategy to the sediment controlling in the basin, which have useful meaning.
1.时间序列特征分析结果表明,盘龙河流域河流输沙率自1953至1997年一直呈现出波动上升的趋势,而1998年以来有下降的倾向；输沙率的变化具有多时间尺度特征,不同时段振荡强度不同；就周期性而言,输沙率存在有4、7、22年的振荡周期,其中22年的振荡周期最为明显,贯穿整个研究时段,4年和7年尺度上局部特征突出；在4、7、22年时间尺度上分析输沙率的突变特征得知,4年尺度上的突变有27次,7年尺度上的突变有15次,22年尺度上的突变有5次,长时间尺度上嵌套着短时间尺度。此外,输沙率时间序列的多时间尺度、周期性、突变性特征是由气候要素所决定。
2.非线性特征分析结果表明,流域悬移质的输移过程具有混沌和分形这两种主要的非线性特征。从混沌特征来看,控制站龙潭寨水文站月均输沙率的最小嵌入维m=11,饱和关联维D2=1.8387,最大Lyapunov指数λ1=0.108,Kolmogorov熵K=0.1818,表征了盘龙河月均输沙率的最大可预报时间约为9个月,平均可预报时间约为6个月。从分形分析的结果来看,盘龙河月均输沙率的Hurst指数H=0.7781>0.5,分形维数D=1.2219。
3.分析河流悬移质输移变化与土地利用变化之间的对应关系时表明,盘龙河流域河流悬移质输沙的趋势性特征是其对土地利用变化,特别是其中的林地面积变化的趋势性所作出的响应。这主要是由于土地利用与土壤侵蚀之间有密切的关系,土地利用方式变迁必然导致土壤侵蚀强度发生改变,从而引起侵蚀产沙与河流输沙的相应调整的结果。
4.输沙率预测的小波神经网络耦合模型的因子选取结果表明,在构建气候水文变化对悬移质的影响模型中：加入径流量要素和考虑大雨及暴雨的影响后模型的预测效果更好；有一个月的滞后比没有滞后好,但不宜超过二个月；小波神经网络耦合模型的预测精度比普通BP模型高。在构建人类活动变化对悬移质的影响模型中：考虑林地面积和水库控制面积,及两者分别滞后一年,模型的预测精度有较大的提高,而加入耕地面积、水库库容、公路修建里程、水土保持面积、裸地面积、年采矿量、流域年末总人口等要素后,模型的预测精度有所提高,但没有明显的变化。
5.气候变化对河流悬移质输移的影响分析结果表明,相对于基准期,气候变化对输沙变化的综合影响在不同时段有所不同。但总体而言,随着时间的推移,气候变化对输沙变化的贡献呈现出逐渐减弱的趋势。此外,不同气候要素对输沙变化还具有不同的影响作用,降雨量对输沙变化的贡献最为重要,均超过了85%；气温的贡献为负作用,并且小于3%；大雨和暴雨对输沙也有一定的影响,但在6%以内。
河流悬移质对气候变化的响应分析结果为,降雨不变而气温升高将导致输沙的减少；气温不变,降雨增加则输沙增加,反之则减少,且降雨增加相同的幅度比减少相同幅度对输沙的影响更显著；气温升高同时降雨减少,则输沙朝减少的方向发展；气温升高同时降雨增加,输沙的变化相对较为复杂。此外,在人类活动加剧的情景下,输沙对同样的气候变化情景将变得更为敏感。
6.人类活动对河流悬移质输移的影响分析结果表明,相对于基准期,人类活动变化对输沙变化的综合影响在不同时段也不尽相同。总体而言,随着时间的推移,人类活动对输沙的控制有逐渐加强的态势。此外,不同人类活动要素对输移变化的影响具有不同的作用,林地对输沙变化的贡献最大,均超过了70%；对于耕地,从1958年至2005年一直趋于减少状态,对减少输沙的贡献也相应增加；就水库控制面积和库容而言,减沙贡献主要表现在研究时段初期；公路修建和采矿,在研究时段初期,两者对输沙增加的贡献相对较小,而进入90年代以来,它们对输沙的增加已经不可忽视；就水土保持面积而言,进入2000年以来,对减沙的贡献才达5.64%；裸地面积对输沙的贡献在初期为4.23%,90年代达到11.26%,进入21世纪以来,又降为10.57%；流域年末总人口对输沙的贡献均在4%左右。
河流悬移质对人类活动变化的响应分析结果为,耕地面积维持不变的情况下,林地面积的减少将导致输沙的升高,而林地面积增加将导致输沙减少；林地面积维持不变的情况下,耕地面积的减少将导致输沙的减少,反之则升高；耕地减少同时林地增加会导致输沙的减少；耕地增加同时林地减少将导致输沙的增加。此外,在气候变为较干旱时,输沙对同样的人类活动情景不敏感,反之则较为敏感。
7.未来气候变化下输沙的可能变化预测结果为,以2000-2005年的输沙为基准,至2050年研究区输沙的可能变化范围是增加0.15～16.8%。如若考虑到人类控制的加剧,输沙总体将朝减少的方向发展。
上述方法、思路与成果,为流域泥沙的研究注入了新的方法,拓展了泥沙研究的方向,丰富和完善了水文学的理论体系,加深了人类对流域泥沙过程的认知与理解,弥补了研究区相应领域的空白,具有积极的意义。
Abstract:The change of river sediment is the results that change of regional ecosystem environment. It will directly cause the scour and silting evolution of river channel, which seriously affect the engineering, wetland, environment, biodiversity, etc. There are many high sediment concentration rivers in China, and the sediment problem is very serious. Water and sediment disasters seriously restrict the sustainable, rapid development of the national economy. So further understanding of the sediment has become a very urgent task of hydrological research. This paper takes Panlonghe basin, the branch of Red river as the studied area, the wavelet, chaos, fractal, neural network, "3S" technology and various traditional mathematics methods as the study methods, to research the change regulation of sediment flux in Longtanzhai gauging station. Moreover, this paper also has researched the mutual influence and response among climate, human activity and sediment. At the last, we come to the conclusions as following:
1. The results of time series analysis showing that the suspended sediment flux of Panlonghe had been present a trend of waving ascension from 1953 to 1997 year. However, it had been present a trend of descendent tendency from 1998. The change of suspended sediment flux has multi-time scale characteristic, and the oscillation strength is different in different time period. To the periodic characteristic, the suspended sediment flux has the oscillation period of 4,7 and 22 year, in which the oscillation period in 22 year time scale is the most obvious, it run throughout the whole researched time. However, the local characteristic is outstanding both in 4 and 7 year time scale. If we analyze the abrupt characteristic in the 4,7 and 22 year time scale, we can come to the conclusion that in the 4 year time scale, abrupt change has 27 times, and in the 7 year time scale, abrupt change has 15 times, and in the 22 year time scale, abrupt change has 5 times. The long term time scale contains the short term time scale. In additional, the multi-time scales, periodic and abrupt change characteristic are controlled by the climate factors.
2. The results of nonlinear features analysis showing that the transportation processes of suspended sediment have the two kinds of nonlinear characteristics, that is, chaos and fractal. Firstly, from the aspects of chaos characteristic, to the mean month suspended sediment flux of Longtanzhai gauging station of Panlonghe river, the minimum embedding dimension m=11, saturation correlation dimension D2=1.8387, maximum Lyapunov exponentλ1=0.108, Kolmogorov entropy K=0.1818, which mean that the maximum possible forecast time is about 9 months, and the mean possible forecast time is about 6 months. Secondly, from the analysis results of fractal, to the mean month suspended sediment of Panlonghe river, the Hurst exponent H=0.7781>0.5, fractal dimension D=1.2219.
3. When analysis the relationship between river suspended sediment transportation and land use change in Panlonghe basin, we can come to the conclusions that the change trend characteristics of suspended sediment flux in Panlonghe basin is the results of land use change, and in particularly the changing of forest area. This was mainly due to land use and soil erosion have closely relationship, and the land use mode change will lead to soil erosion intensity change, thus leading to erosion and sediment transportation make corresponding adjustment.
4. This paper uses the Wavelet Network in the process of suspended sediment prediction. Firstly, in the model of sediment-climate, the input factors include four climate factors and only one hydrological factor. That is, rainfall, air temperature, the accumulative amount of daily rainfall≥25 and≥50 mm, and water discharge. After this step, we divided the models into four groups according to the different combination. The first group only includes rainfall and air temperature; the second group adds downfall and rainstorm except the two factors that the first group used; the third group adds the water discharge except the factors that the third group used; the fourth group only includes the water discharge. When come to the delay effect, we consider four conditions, that is, have no delay effect, one month delay, two and three months delay and four months delay respectively. The results are as following:if add the water discharge and consider the influence of downfall and rainstorm, the prediction precision will be improved; the best delay time is one month, the prediction precision will reduce if the models have no time delay or time delay excesses two months; the prediction precision of the Wavelet Network is better than the Back Propagation model. Secondly, in the model of suspended sediment and human activities, the input factors include nine factors, that is, woodland area, farmland area, capability and controlled area of reservoir, length of highway construction, the water and soil conservation area, year mining amount, bare land area and the total population in the studied area. The results are as following:add the on time and delay one year of woodland and reservoir controlled area to the sediment-climate models can improve the prediction precision. However, if add the farmland area, reservoir controlled area, length of highway construction, the water and soil conservation area, bare land area, year mining amount and the total population in the studied area to the model, the prediction precision improved slightly. It is clear that these factors influence the production and transportation of suspended sediment, but their effects are limited in the studied area.
5. The result of the influence of climate change to the suspended sediment flux showing that the influence of climate to the change of suspended sediment flux is different in the different period. In generally speaking, the contribution rate of climate change to the change of suspended sediment flux is weakening.
In this paper, we mainly consider the rainfall, temperature, downfall and rainstorm when study the influence of climate factors to sediment. The results are as following:comparing to the standard period, the contribution rate of rainfall to suspended sediment change is the most important, all excess 85%; the contribution of temperature to the suspended sediment flux change is counteractive, and less than 3%; downfall and rainstorm have certain influence to sediment, but the contribution rate are less than 6%.
After analyzing the response of sediment transportation to the climate change, we can come to some interesting conclusions. For the climate factors:the air temperature rising will lead to the sediment transportation decrease if the rainfall is not change; if the air temperature is not change, the influence of increase rain to sediment transportation is more observably when the rainfall have same decrease and increase range; if the air temperature rising with the rainfall decrease, the sediment transportation will decrease; if the air temperature rising with rainfall decrease, the sediment transportation change is more complicated. The sediment transportation will become more sensitive to the same climate change scenario under the scenario of human activity intensified.
6. The results of the influence of human activities to the suspended sediment flux showing that the influence of human to the change of suspended sediment flux is different in the different period too. In generally speaking, with the development of society, the control of human to the sediment is intensified.
From the results we know that:the contribution of woodland to the sediment transportation is the most important factor, it contribution all excess 70% in the four periods, so it is clear that the sediment transportation rising is caused by the woodland decrease; for the farmland, from 1958 to 2005 year, it has been presented decrease trend, so its contribution to sediment transportation decrease was increase; for the reservoir controlled area and capability, because almost all of the reservoir were built at 50 and 60's, so their effect of decrease sediment transportation were presented in the fore period, after 2000 its decrease sediment effect was very limited; for the road construction and mining, in the early period of the studied stage, their contribution to the sediment increase were very limited, but their contribution to the increase of sediment are can not be ignored since 1990s; for the water and soil conservation, it developed very slowly, and its contribution reaches to 5.64% since 2000s; for the bare land, its contribution to the sediment increase was 4.23% in the early period, and reached 11.26% in 90's, but decreased towards 10.57% when we got into 21st centuries; for the year-end total population, it does not contribute to the sediment transportation directly, but it influence sediment transportation through the other factors, and its contribution is about 4%.
After analyzing the response of sediment transportation to the human activities change we can come to the conclusions as following:when the farmland area doses not change, the decrease of woodland area will cause the sediment transportation increase, but the sediment will decrease if the woodland area decreases; when the woodland area doses not change, the decrease of farmland will cause the sediment transportation decrease, but the increase of farmland will cause the sediment transportation increase; woodland area increase with the farmland decrease, the sediment transportation will decrease; woodland area decrease with the farmland area increase, the sediment transportation will increase. So when we analyze the response of sediment transportation to both of the farmland and woodland area change, we need to analyze the special conditions based on the given environment. For the response of sediment transportation to the human activity under the climate change, the sediment transportation is not so sensitive when the climate becomes wetness.
7. For the possible change of sediment under the future climate in the studied area, if take the sediment transportation of 2000～2005 years as the reference, the possible change range of sediment transportation is 0.15～16.8%. However, if take the human controlling abilities are improved into the consideration, the total direction of sediment transportation may tend to decrease, which is alike many basins in the world.
In a word, the above mentioned results infused new scientific theories and mathematics method into the research of sediment in the basin, and developed new research direction. Not only they advanced the people's cognition and comprehension to the sediment transportation process, but also provided a theories basis for the establishment strategy to the sediment controlling in the basin, which have useful meaning.
引文
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