中国人口老龄化对经济增长的影响研究
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摘要
21世纪是人口老龄化的世纪。人口因素作为基础变量对社会经济产生重要的影响。根据人口发展预测,21世纪中国面临严重的人口老龄化挑战。它将给中国的经济增长带来什么影响?而对于该问题,目前国内缺乏系统性的研究。通过梳理国内外的相关文献,发现人口老龄化对经济增长的影响是非线性的,具有正影响也有负影响。因此,本论文在理论分析的基础上,构建计量模型,采用宏观经济数据,实证研究中国人口老龄化对经济增长的影响。
在研究人口老龄化对经济增长的影响之前,首先在第三章对人口老龄化的机制进行研究。这是国内首次对人口老龄化的机制进行系统的研究。这对于深化人口老龄化理论,以及研究人口老龄化的经济影响,具有重大的意义。论文从生育率下降的视角研究人口老龄化的机制,发现老龄化一旦形成,具有持续强化的机制。从理论上证明,未来中国社会将是一个持续老龄化的社会。因此,老龄化是中国经济增长面临的一个重要约束条件。
然后,在包含人力资本的生产函数中,引入老龄化的变量(老年抚养比),推导出总量生产函数。以此作为分析框架,实证研究老龄化对生产函数中各个变量的影响,具体包括老龄化对劳动生产率、储蓄率和人力资本投资的影响。
老龄化引起劳动力老化,这是否影响劳动生产率是富有争议的问题。第四章,借鉴Lindh和Malmberg (1999)方法将人口年龄结构引入含人力资本的生产函数,推导计量模型,借鉴Bruno(1968)方法利用年龄组的边际生产率来反映平均生产率,利用我国2000年和2005年的城市截面数据研究了老龄化对劳动生产率的影响。这是首次尝试利用宏观数据,理论与实证相结合研究不同年龄组生产率的差异和人口老龄化对劳动生产率的影响。研究发现：劳动力的潜在生产率随年龄增长呈倒U型分布,在其他条件不变的情况下,老龄化过程中劳动力年龄结构的老化将降低社会中的劳动生产率。但是,实际生产率除了与潜在生产率有关,还与劳动力的利用机制有关。劳动力利用机制,是指资源和机会在不同年龄组之间的配置,包括劳动参与率、劳动力的利用导向、退休制度等。我国劳动参与的年龄结构不够合理,45岁以上年龄组的潜在生产率有很大的利用空间。因此,改善劳动参与的年龄结构和充分利用45岁以上年龄组的劳动力,能够缓解老龄化对生产率的负面影响。
与世界其他国家相比,我国具有高国民储蓄率和独特的部门储蓄结构。老龄化的过程伴随着少儿抚养比的下降和老年抚养比的上升,两个抚养比对储蓄的影响不完全相同。第五章,基于简约计量模型和VECM模型,采用我国1978-2008年的时间序列数,在变量筛选的基础上,研究了少儿和老年抚养比对国民和部门储蓄的长期动态影响。这是首次关于人口老龄化对部门储蓄的研究,长期动态分析方法的运用也具有创新意义。研究结论为,少儿抚养比和老年抚养比对国民和居民储蓄的影响为负,影响时间长达20年,少儿抚养比对储蓄的影响大约是老年抚养比的三倍。抚养比变化对政府储蓄影响不显著。公司储蓄对老年抚养比的上升具有短期的正向影响。改革开放以来,少儿抚养比的大幅下降,是我国高储蓄的重要原因；未来老龄化过程中,快速上升的老年抚养比将降低储蓄水平,但是下降幅度小于相同的少儿抚养水平下降所引起的储蓄水平上升幅度。因此,当前人口老龄化对储蓄负影响尚不显著,未来将引起我国储蓄水平下降,但是储蓄率仍然将保持在较高的水平。
人力资本投资包括教育和健康投资两部分,其中教育投资是人力资本投资的主要方面。人力资本投资的主体是政府和家庭。第六章,根据理论分析和国外相关经验研究,建立计量模型,利用1978-2008年全国教育经费和医疗费用支出时间系列数据,以及1995-2008年各省教育支出费面板数据,研究了全国和省两个不同的空间尺度上老年抚养比变化对政府和家庭的人力资本投资的影响,还研究了全国的医疗费用对教育投资的影响。关于老龄化对人力资本投资影响的研究,在国内也属于首次探索。研究发现,教育投资和健康投资相互促进,二者的相关系数达到了0.996。当前人口老龄化促进了政府和家庭的教育投资,但是也发现政府的医疗费用支出对教育支出具有竞争性；而当顶算受到约束时,家庭的医疗费用支出计渡于教育投资。因此,目前老龄化促进了人力资本投资。受政府的医疗费用支与教育支出的关系影响,随着人口老龄化程度的加深,老龄化对人力资本投资促进作用将会减弱,并可能由正影响转变为负影响。
综合全文,目前我国国民储蓄还在因少儿抚养比的下降而上升,老年抚养比上升带来的负效应还并不显著；老年抚养比提高引起的医疗和养老费用对人力资本投资的负效应尚未显现,人口老龄化促进了人力资本投资；45岁以上人口劳动参与率低下,高年龄组劳动力对劳动生产率的影响并不突出。因此,当前中国人口老龄化对经济增长的负效应并不显著,我国老龄化与经济增长的关系正处于二者倒U型关系的左侧。
The 21st century is the century of population aging. Population factor as a basic variable has an important impact on society and economy. According to demographic forecasts, in the 21st century China will face severe challenges posed by population aging. How will it impact China's economic growth? There is, however, little systematic research addressing this problem. By reviewing the literature at home and abroad, we found that the impact of population aging on economic growth is nonlinear, with both positive and negative impact. Therefore, on the basis of theoretical analysis we built an econometric model, and did an empirical study on the impact of population aging on China" economic growth using macroeconomic data.
Before examining the impact of population aging on economic growth, we first studied the mechanism of population aging, the result of which is presented in chapterⅢ. This is the first study into the mechanism of population aging system, which is of great significance for further understanding the theory of population aging and the economic impact of population aging. This paper approached the mechanism of population aging from the perspective of declining fertility and revealed that aging, once formed, will continue to reinforce itself. It is proved theoretically that the Chinese society will be a continuously aging society in the future. Accordingly aging is an important constraint on China's economic growth.
Then, we introduced elderly dependency ratio, a variable of aging, into production including human capital, and derived the total production function. Using this analytical framework, we empirically studied the effects of aging on each variable of the production function, including the effect of aging on labor productivity, saving rates and human capital investment.
Population aging causes the workforce's aging, but it is a controversial issue that whether or not workforce's aging affects labour productivity. On the basis of a method previously described by Lindh and Malmberg (1999), with the introduction of population age structure into the production function containing human capital, we derived an econometrical model shown in chapterⅣ. According to a technique developed by Bruno (1968) we used the average productivity of age groups to reflect the marginal productivity, and studied the impact of aging on labor productivity using 2000 and 2005's urban cross-section data of China. This is the first attempt to use macroeconomic data to study the impact of aging on labor productivity between different age groups and population by combining theoretical and empirical study. We found that the potential productivity of labor is of inverted U-distribution over age. When the other conditions remain unchanged, the aging of the labor force caused by the aging of the age structure of society will reduce labor productivity. However, besides the potential productivity, actual productivity is also related to the mechanism of labor utilization. The mechanism of labor utilization is defined as the distribution of resources and opportunities between different age groups, including labor force participation rate, labor utilization direct and retirement system. China's age structure of labor force participation is not reasonable. The age group over 45 years old has great potential productivity. Therefore, to improve the age structure of labor force participation and make better use of the labor force of the age group over 45 years old can reduce aging's negative effects on productivity.
Compared to other countries, China has a high national saving rate and a unique sector saving structure. Along with the aging process child dependency ratio declines and elderly dependency ratio goes up, exerting different effects on saving rate. In chapter V, based on the simple econometric model and the VECM model and with the use of 1978-2008 time series, we selected variables to study the dynamic effect of child and elderly dependency ratios on long-term national and sectoral savings. This is the first study on the effect of population aging on sectoral savings; the long-term dynamic analysis method is also innovative. The study concludes that child and elderly dependency ratios can have a negative impact on national and household savings for up to 20 years, and that child dependency ratio's effect is about three times that of the elderly dependency ratio. In contrast, the effect of dependency ratio on government savings was insignificant. Corporate savings has a short-term positive effect on the rise of the elderly dependency ratio. Since China initiated the reform and opening-up policy, a dramatic decline in child dependency ratio is an important reason for China's high savings. In the future aging process, the rapid increase of the elderly dependency ratio will reduce the level of savings, but the decline will be less than the level of rise of savings caused by the reduction in the child dependency ratio. Therefore, the current negative impact of population aging on savings is not significant, in the future it will lead to reduction of the level of savings, but savings rates will remain at a high level.
Investment in human capital includes two parts, education and health investments, of which investment in education accounts for a greater share. Human capital investors are the government and the household. In chapter VI, based on theoretical analysis and the study of experience abroad we built an econometric model using time series over 1978-2008 of the national educational funds and health expenditure and the panel data of provincial expenditure for education over 1995-2008. With this model, we studied the effect of changes in elderly dependency ratio on the government's and the household's human capital investment over the two different spatial scales of state and province; we also studied the impact of the country's medical expenses on education investment. This represents the first attempt in China to explore the impact of aging on human capital investment. The present study found that education investment and health investment promote each other, with a correlation coefficient of 0.996. The current aging of the population promotes government and household investment in education, but we also noted that government spending on health care and expenditure on education are competitive; and when budgets are constrained, household medical expenses will be squeezed by investment in education. Therefore, the current aging promotes investment in human capital. As population aging becomes more pronounced, the role of aging in promoting investment in human capital will be reduced by the influence of the relation between medicaland educational expenditures by the government, and may be changed from positive to negative.
Taken together, China's national savings ratio is still increasing due to the decline in child dependency ratio, and the negative effect caused by the increase of elderly dependency ratio is not significant; the negative effect of health care and pension costs caused by increase in elderly dependency ratio on investment in human capital is yet to be felt:and labor force participation rate of population over 45 years of age is still very low, leading to unremarkable effect of high age group on labor productivity. Therefore, the current population aging has no remarkable negative effect on China's economic growth. The relationship between population aging and economic growth corresponds to an inverted-U curve, and at present china is on the left side of that.
在研究人口老龄化对经济增长的影响之前,首先在第三章对人口老龄化的机制进行研究。这是国内首次对人口老龄化的机制进行系统的研究。这对于深化人口老龄化理论,以及研究人口老龄化的经济影响,具有重大的意义。论文从生育率下降的视角研究人口老龄化的机制,发现老龄化一旦形成,具有持续强化的机制。从理论上证明,未来中国社会将是一个持续老龄化的社会。因此,老龄化是中国经济增长面临的一个重要约束条件。
然后,在包含人力资本的生产函数中,引入老龄化的变量(老年抚养比),推导出总量生产函数。以此作为分析框架,实证研究老龄化对生产函数中各个变量的影响,具体包括老龄化对劳动生产率、储蓄率和人力资本投资的影响。
老龄化引起劳动力老化,这是否影响劳动生产率是富有争议的问题。第四章,借鉴Lindh和Malmberg (1999)方法将人口年龄结构引入含人力资本的生产函数,推导计量模型,借鉴Bruno(1968)方法利用年龄组的边际生产率来反映平均生产率,利用我国2000年和2005年的城市截面数据研究了老龄化对劳动生产率的影响。这是首次尝试利用宏观数据,理论与实证相结合研究不同年龄组生产率的差异和人口老龄化对劳动生产率的影响。研究发现：劳动力的潜在生产率随年龄增长呈倒U型分布,在其他条件不变的情况下,老龄化过程中劳动力年龄结构的老化将降低社会中的劳动生产率。但是,实际生产率除了与潜在生产率有关,还与劳动力的利用机制有关。劳动力利用机制,是指资源和机会在不同年龄组之间的配置,包括劳动参与率、劳动力的利用导向、退休制度等。我国劳动参与的年龄结构不够合理,45岁以上年龄组的潜在生产率有很大的利用空间。因此,改善劳动参与的年龄结构和充分利用45岁以上年龄组的劳动力,能够缓解老龄化对生产率的负面影响。
与世界其他国家相比,我国具有高国民储蓄率和独特的部门储蓄结构。老龄化的过程伴随着少儿抚养比的下降和老年抚养比的上升,两个抚养比对储蓄的影响不完全相同。第五章,基于简约计量模型和VECM模型,采用我国1978-2008年的时间序列数,在变量筛选的基础上,研究了少儿和老年抚养比对国民和部门储蓄的长期动态影响。这是首次关于人口老龄化对部门储蓄的研究,长期动态分析方法的运用也具有创新意义。研究结论为,少儿抚养比和老年抚养比对国民和居民储蓄的影响为负,影响时间长达20年,少儿抚养比对储蓄的影响大约是老年抚养比的三倍。抚养比变化对政府储蓄影响不显著。公司储蓄对老年抚养比的上升具有短期的正向影响。改革开放以来,少儿抚养比的大幅下降,是我国高储蓄的重要原因；未来老龄化过程中,快速上升的老年抚养比将降低储蓄水平,但是下降幅度小于相同的少儿抚养水平下降所引起的储蓄水平上升幅度。因此,当前人口老龄化对储蓄负影响尚不显著,未来将引起我国储蓄水平下降,但是储蓄率仍然将保持在较高的水平。
人力资本投资包括教育和健康投资两部分,其中教育投资是人力资本投资的主要方面。人力资本投资的主体是政府和家庭。第六章,根据理论分析和国外相关经验研究,建立计量模型,利用1978-2008年全国教育经费和医疗费用支出时间系列数据,以及1995-2008年各省教育支出费面板数据,研究了全国和省两个不同的空间尺度上老年抚养比变化对政府和家庭的人力资本投资的影响,还研究了全国的医疗费用对教育投资的影响。关于老龄化对人力资本投资影响的研究,在国内也属于首次探索。研究发现,教育投资和健康投资相互促进,二者的相关系数达到了0.996。当前人口老龄化促进了政府和家庭的教育投资,但是也发现政府的医疗费用支出对教育支出具有竞争性；而当顶算受到约束时,家庭的医疗费用支出计渡于教育投资。因此,目前老龄化促进了人力资本投资。受政府的医疗费用支与教育支出的关系影响,随着人口老龄化程度的加深,老龄化对人力资本投资促进作用将会减弱,并可能由正影响转变为负影响。
综合全文,目前我国国民储蓄还在因少儿抚养比的下降而上升,老年抚养比上升带来的负效应还并不显著；老年抚养比提高引起的医疗和养老费用对人力资本投资的负效应尚未显现,人口老龄化促进了人力资本投资；45岁以上人口劳动参与率低下,高年龄组劳动力对劳动生产率的影响并不突出。因此,当前中国人口老龄化对经济增长的负效应并不显著,我国老龄化与经济增长的关系正处于二者倒U型关系的左侧。
The 21st century is the century of population aging. Population factor as a basic variable has an important impact on society and economy. According to demographic forecasts, in the 21st century China will face severe challenges posed by population aging. How will it impact China's economic growth? There is, however, little systematic research addressing this problem. By reviewing the literature at home and abroad, we found that the impact of population aging on economic growth is nonlinear, with both positive and negative impact. Therefore, on the basis of theoretical analysis we built an econometric model, and did an empirical study on the impact of population aging on China" economic growth using macroeconomic data.
Before examining the impact of population aging on economic growth, we first studied the mechanism of population aging, the result of which is presented in chapterⅢ. This is the first study into the mechanism of population aging system, which is of great significance for further understanding the theory of population aging and the economic impact of population aging. This paper approached the mechanism of population aging from the perspective of declining fertility and revealed that aging, once formed, will continue to reinforce itself. It is proved theoretically that the Chinese society will be a continuously aging society in the future. Accordingly aging is an important constraint on China's economic growth.
Then, we introduced elderly dependency ratio, a variable of aging, into production including human capital, and derived the total production function. Using this analytical framework, we empirically studied the effects of aging on each variable of the production function, including the effect of aging on labor productivity, saving rates and human capital investment.
Population aging causes the workforce's aging, but it is a controversial issue that whether or not workforce's aging affects labour productivity. On the basis of a method previously described by Lindh and Malmberg (1999), with the introduction of population age structure into the production function containing human capital, we derived an econometrical model shown in chapterⅣ. According to a technique developed by Bruno (1968) we used the average productivity of age groups to reflect the marginal productivity, and studied the impact of aging on labor productivity using 2000 and 2005's urban cross-section data of China. This is the first attempt to use macroeconomic data to study the impact of aging on labor productivity between different age groups and population by combining theoretical and empirical study. We found that the potential productivity of labor is of inverted U-distribution over age. When the other conditions remain unchanged, the aging of the labor force caused by the aging of the age structure of society will reduce labor productivity. However, besides the potential productivity, actual productivity is also related to the mechanism of labor utilization. The mechanism of labor utilization is defined as the distribution of resources and opportunities between different age groups, including labor force participation rate, labor utilization direct and retirement system. China's age structure of labor force participation is not reasonable. The age group over 45 years old has great potential productivity. Therefore, to improve the age structure of labor force participation and make better use of the labor force of the age group over 45 years old can reduce aging's negative effects on productivity.
Compared to other countries, China has a high national saving rate and a unique sector saving structure. Along with the aging process child dependency ratio declines and elderly dependency ratio goes up, exerting different effects on saving rate. In chapter V, based on the simple econometric model and the VECM model and with the use of 1978-2008 time series, we selected variables to study the dynamic effect of child and elderly dependency ratios on long-term national and sectoral savings. This is the first study on the effect of population aging on sectoral savings; the long-term dynamic analysis method is also innovative. The study concludes that child and elderly dependency ratios can have a negative impact on national and household savings for up to 20 years, and that child dependency ratio's effect is about three times that of the elderly dependency ratio. In contrast, the effect of dependency ratio on government savings was insignificant. Corporate savings has a short-term positive effect on the rise of the elderly dependency ratio. Since China initiated the reform and opening-up policy, a dramatic decline in child dependency ratio is an important reason for China's high savings. In the future aging process, the rapid increase of the elderly dependency ratio will reduce the level of savings, but the decline will be less than the level of rise of savings caused by the reduction in the child dependency ratio. Therefore, the current negative impact of population aging on savings is not significant, in the future it will lead to reduction of the level of savings, but savings rates will remain at a high level.
Investment in human capital includes two parts, education and health investments, of which investment in education accounts for a greater share. Human capital investors are the government and the household. In chapter VI, based on theoretical analysis and the study of experience abroad we built an econometric model using time series over 1978-2008 of the national educational funds and health expenditure and the panel data of provincial expenditure for education over 1995-2008. With this model, we studied the effect of changes in elderly dependency ratio on the government's and the household's human capital investment over the two different spatial scales of state and province; we also studied the impact of the country's medical expenses on education investment. This represents the first attempt in China to explore the impact of aging on human capital investment. The present study found that education investment and health investment promote each other, with a correlation coefficient of 0.996. The current aging of the population promotes government and household investment in education, but we also noted that government spending on health care and expenditure on education are competitive; and when budgets are constrained, household medical expenses will be squeezed by investment in education. Therefore, the current aging promotes investment in human capital. As population aging becomes more pronounced, the role of aging in promoting investment in human capital will be reduced by the influence of the relation between medicaland educational expenditures by the government, and may be changed from positive to negative.
Taken together, China's national savings ratio is still increasing due to the decline in child dependency ratio, and the negative effect caused by the increase of elderly dependency ratio is not significant; the negative effect of health care and pension costs caused by increase in elderly dependency ratio on investment in human capital is yet to be felt:and labor force participation rate of population over 45 years of age is still very low, leading to unremarkable effect of high age group on labor productivity. Therefore, the current population aging has no remarkable negative effect on China's economic growth. The relationship between population aging and economic growth corresponds to an inverted-U curve, and at present china is on the left side of that.
引文
见联合国网站：http://www.un.org/esa/population/unpop.htm。
按照联合国颁布的人口年龄类型划分标准,65岁及以上老年人口的比重是划分人口年龄类型的最常见的指标。65岁及以上人口比重在4%以下属于年青型人口,它的比重在4%—7%属丁成年型人口,其比重达7%以上属于老年型人口。如果一国或地区的人口按年龄类型划分已经属于老年，那么我们就说该国或该地区已经进入老龄化社会。
1数据来源,世界银行世界发展指数(World Development Indicators))数据库.
2数据来源,同(?)
参见李仲生,《人口经济学》,北京：清华大学出版,2006版，第201页。
1邬沧萍,《漫谈人口老化》,沈阳：辽宁人民出版社,1986年版,笫26-28页。
1贝克尔著,王献生、王宇译,《家庭论》,北京：商务印书馆,2005版,第161-184页。
1田雪原、王金营、周广庆,《老龄化——从“人口盈利”到“人口亏损”》,北京：中国经济出版社,2006年版,第117页。
1与不加入三个控制变量的基础模型相比,回归结果几乎没有差异。
2数据来源,2009年中国统计年鉴。
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按照联合国颁布的人口年龄类型划分标准,65岁及以上老年人口的比重是划分人口年龄类型的最常见的指标。65岁及以上人口比重在4%以下属于年青型人口,它的比重在4%—7%属丁成年型人口,其比重达7%以上属于老年型人口。如果一国或地区的人口按年龄类型划分已经属于老年，那么我们就说该国或该地区已经进入老龄化社会。
1数据来源,世界银行世界发展指数(World Development Indicators))数据库.
2数据来源,同(?)
参见李仲生,《人口经济学》,北京：清华大学出版,2006版，第201页。
1邬沧萍,《漫谈人口老化》,沈阳：辽宁人民出版社,1986年版,笫26-28页。
1贝克尔著,王献生、王宇译,《家庭论》,北京：商务印书馆,2005版,第161-184页。
1田雪原、王金营、周广庆,《老龄化——从“人口盈利”到“人口亏损”》,北京：中国经济出版社,2006年版,第117页。
1与不加入三个控制变量的基础模型相比,回归结果几乎没有差异。
2数据来源,2009年中国统计年鉴。
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