应急预案辅助设计及评价问题研究
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摘要
近年来,各类突发公共事件的频繁发生使得应急管理逐渐引起社会的广泛关注。应急预案是应急管理工作中的重要组成部分,是开展应急救援的基础。做好应急预案的相关管理工作是降低突发事件风险、及时有效地开展应急救援工作的重要保障。
为了更好地应对可能发生的各类突发公共事件,近年来各地区、各有关部门和各类生产经营单位按照党中央、国务院的统一部署和要求,在预案方面做了大量工作。截至目前,国家突发公共事件预案体系已经基本建立起来。据不完全统计,我国目前各级各类预案已达200多万件,基本覆盖了各类突发公共事件。
但是,从整体上看,我国现有的应急预案与实际的应用还有很大差距,存在很多亟待解决的问题。主要表现在：应急预案的编制设计过程中缺乏科学的方法支撑,导致应急预案中的应对方案过于笼统、可操作性差；缺乏对应急预案的综合评价的理论和方法,尤其是缺少突发事件发生后对应急预案实施效果进行评价的方法；对应急预案完全实施的期望过高,缺乏对应急预案灵活性设计方面的思考以及在此基础上对应急预案有效性进行评价的方法。针对这些问题,本文的研究内容具体如下：
(1)基于案例推理的应急预案处置方案辅助设计方法研究。本文将人工智能领域中的案例推理方法引入到应急预案处置方案辅助设计中,以期提高方案设计的科学性。建立了应急案例库,设计了应急案例的概念树.本体模型.元模型的三层架构的存储模式,设计了相似案例的检索算法,开发了原型系统对该方法的实用性进行验证。
(2)应急预案的综合评价问题研究。本研究将应急预案的评价分为事前的先验性评价及事后对实施效果进行评价(后效评价)。总结了现有研究中对先验性评价的研究成果,重点研究了应急预案的后效评价。基于目前尚没有对应急预案实施后的效果进行定量化评价研究的现状以及危化品泄露事故在应急管理中的重要地位,本文以危化品泄露事故为例,首次将多层次灰色评价方法引入到应急预案实施效果评价中来,建立了基于灰色多层次评价的危化品泄露事故应急预案后效评价模型。
(3)基于弹性视角的应急预案有效性评价研究。本文首先从突发事件定义、突发事件特性以及组织本身管理三个角度分析并总结了目前我国大多数应急预案在突发事件应对中无法完全按照预案本身刚性实施的现状及其原因,指出应急预案不应该只是一个刚性的文本文件,而应该是具有弹性的,这样才能够适应越来越复杂的突发事件的情形,不断提高其实际的可用性。在此基础上给出了应急预案弹性的定义,提出了基于弹性视角的应急预案有效性评价的思路框架,并辅以美国911案例阐述了应急预案无法刚性实施时可以通过提高组织的应急恢复弹性而取得应急响应成功。进一步根据该框架抽象出基于弹性视角的应急预案有效性评价的概念模型,并基于实施理论对该概念模型的合理性进行理论验证。
在论文的最后部分对以上工作进行总结,并对未来工作进行展望。
本文的研究可以为我国各级应急管理人员在应急预案的方案设计及预案评价方面的管理工作提供决策支持与参考,有助于不断提高应急预案对突发事件处置的有效程度,使得应急预案可以更有效地应对突发事件以减少损失。
In recent years, various types of public emergencies happened frequently.As a result, emergency management has gradually attracted more and more public attention. As an important part of the emergency management, contingency plans management is a basic work of emergency rescue effort. Making contingency plans for emergency management is important guarantee to the successful emergency rescue work through reducing the risk, and carrying out timely and effective implementation of the plans.
In order to better respond to possible types of public emergencies, various localities and departments and the various types of production units have done a lot of work on emergency plans management to meet the requirement and unified arrangement of the State Council. So far, the national system of public emergency plan has been basically established. And according to incomplete statistics, the number of China's current levels of various types of plans has reached two million, covering almost all kinds of public emergencies.
However, on the whole, there are still some gaps between written plans and implementation in real response to emergency. Thus, there are still many problems need to be solved to improve the efficiency of contingency plans. The main problems are as follows: firstly, lacking of guidance of scientific method to support the historical experience learning when designing and making contingency plans; secondly, lacking of comprehensive evaluation theory and method to evaluate contingency plans.Especially lacking of evaluation method to evaluate the implementation efficiency of the contingency plans after the emergency; thirdly, emphasizing too much expectation on the fully implementation of contingency plans, lacking of consideration on flexibility in the design of contingency plans and related evaluation ideas and method to evaluate effectiveness of contingency plans.To solve these problems, the contents of this research are as follows:
Firstly, research on aid-design method for executive solution of contingency plans based on case-based reasoning. This article applied the case-based reasoning method, which belongs to the field of artificial intelligence to aided design of contingency plans execute solution through retrieving the similar cases and their solutions. We built emergency case base, and designed the three-tier storage model based on concept tree, ontology model and element model, and then designed Case retrieval algorithm, and lastly developed a prototype system to verify the practicality of the method. This method can provide plan makers decision support by quickly retrieving the historical experience of similar cases when they design contingency plans execute solution.
Secondly, research on comprehensive evaluation of contingency plans. In this study, the evaluation of contingency plans was divided into two types, the pre-evaluation and post-evaluation of the effect (after-effect evaluation). It summarized existing studies on the pre-evaluation at first, and then focused on the evaluation of emergency plans in the after-effects. This paper took hazardous chemicals spill incident as an example and applied multi-level and grey evaluation model method to the evaluation of contingency plans and built the evaluation model of incident of hazardous chemicals spill plans implementation.
Thirdly, research on effectiveness evaluation of contingency plans based on resilient perspective. This paper analyzed the reasons why current contingency plans were hard to be fully implemented in the real response from three following perspectives, namely definition of contingency, features of contingency and organization management. Contingency plan should not be just a rigid text file, but should be flexible, so as to meet the increasingly complex emergency situations, and constantly improve its actual availability. On this basis, the paper proposed the definition of flexibility of contingency plans. Then it proposed an thinking framework to evaluate the effectiveness of contingency plans based on resilient view, and it explained that when contingency plan of an organization can't be fully implemented, it can still make organization attain successful response by improving organization resilient potential, which is supported by the 911 case study.Furthermore, a conceptual model was abstracted based on the framework proposed above, and the rationality of the conceptual model was validated theoretically based on implementation theory.
Finally, the paper summarized the work has been done above, and proposed the prospect of future work.
This research can provide contingency planners and managers of all government levels efficient decision support on execution solution design, and evaluation of contingency plans. Thus it can help improve contingency plans to play more and more active roles in real response to emergency and reduce great loss in the future.
为了更好地应对可能发生的各类突发公共事件,近年来各地区、各有关部门和各类生产经营单位按照党中央、国务院的统一部署和要求,在预案方面做了大量工作。截至目前,国家突发公共事件预案体系已经基本建立起来。据不完全统计,我国目前各级各类预案已达200多万件,基本覆盖了各类突发公共事件。
但是,从整体上看,我国现有的应急预案与实际的应用还有很大差距,存在很多亟待解决的问题。主要表现在：应急预案的编制设计过程中缺乏科学的方法支撑,导致应急预案中的应对方案过于笼统、可操作性差；缺乏对应急预案的综合评价的理论和方法,尤其是缺少突发事件发生后对应急预案实施效果进行评价的方法；对应急预案完全实施的期望过高,缺乏对应急预案灵活性设计方面的思考以及在此基础上对应急预案有效性进行评价的方法。针对这些问题,本文的研究内容具体如下：
(1)基于案例推理的应急预案处置方案辅助设计方法研究。本文将人工智能领域中的案例推理方法引入到应急预案处置方案辅助设计中,以期提高方案设计的科学性。建立了应急案例库,设计了应急案例的概念树.本体模型.元模型的三层架构的存储模式,设计了相似案例的检索算法,开发了原型系统对该方法的实用性进行验证。
(2)应急预案的综合评价问题研究。本研究将应急预案的评价分为事前的先验性评价及事后对实施效果进行评价(后效评价)。总结了现有研究中对先验性评价的研究成果,重点研究了应急预案的后效评价。基于目前尚没有对应急预案实施后的效果进行定量化评价研究的现状以及危化品泄露事故在应急管理中的重要地位,本文以危化品泄露事故为例,首次将多层次灰色评价方法引入到应急预案实施效果评价中来,建立了基于灰色多层次评价的危化品泄露事故应急预案后效评价模型。
(3)基于弹性视角的应急预案有效性评价研究。本文首先从突发事件定义、突发事件特性以及组织本身管理三个角度分析并总结了目前我国大多数应急预案在突发事件应对中无法完全按照预案本身刚性实施的现状及其原因,指出应急预案不应该只是一个刚性的文本文件,而应该是具有弹性的,这样才能够适应越来越复杂的突发事件的情形,不断提高其实际的可用性。在此基础上给出了应急预案弹性的定义,提出了基于弹性视角的应急预案有效性评价的思路框架,并辅以美国911案例阐述了应急预案无法刚性实施时可以通过提高组织的应急恢复弹性而取得应急响应成功。进一步根据该框架抽象出基于弹性视角的应急预案有效性评价的概念模型,并基于实施理论对该概念模型的合理性进行理论验证。
在论文的最后部分对以上工作进行总结,并对未来工作进行展望。
本文的研究可以为我国各级应急管理人员在应急预案的方案设计及预案评价方面的管理工作提供决策支持与参考,有助于不断提高应急预案对突发事件处置的有效程度,使得应急预案可以更有效地应对突发事件以减少损失。
In recent years, various types of public emergencies happened frequently.As a result, emergency management has gradually attracted more and more public attention. As an important part of the emergency management, contingency plans management is a basic work of emergency rescue effort. Making contingency plans for emergency management is important guarantee to the successful emergency rescue work through reducing the risk, and carrying out timely and effective implementation of the plans.
In order to better respond to possible types of public emergencies, various localities and departments and the various types of production units have done a lot of work on emergency plans management to meet the requirement and unified arrangement of the State Council. So far, the national system of public emergency plan has been basically established. And according to incomplete statistics, the number of China's current levels of various types of plans has reached two million, covering almost all kinds of public emergencies.
However, on the whole, there are still some gaps between written plans and implementation in real response to emergency. Thus, there are still many problems need to be solved to improve the efficiency of contingency plans. The main problems are as follows: firstly, lacking of guidance of scientific method to support the historical experience learning when designing and making contingency plans; secondly, lacking of comprehensive evaluation theory and method to evaluate contingency plans.Especially lacking of evaluation method to evaluate the implementation efficiency of the contingency plans after the emergency; thirdly, emphasizing too much expectation on the fully implementation of contingency plans, lacking of consideration on flexibility in the design of contingency plans and related evaluation ideas and method to evaluate effectiveness of contingency plans.To solve these problems, the contents of this research are as follows:
Firstly, research on aid-design method for executive solution of contingency plans based on case-based reasoning. This article applied the case-based reasoning method, which belongs to the field of artificial intelligence to aided design of contingency plans execute solution through retrieving the similar cases and their solutions. We built emergency case base, and designed the three-tier storage model based on concept tree, ontology model and element model, and then designed Case retrieval algorithm, and lastly developed a prototype system to verify the practicality of the method. This method can provide plan makers decision support by quickly retrieving the historical experience of similar cases when they design contingency plans execute solution.
Secondly, research on comprehensive evaluation of contingency plans. In this study, the evaluation of contingency plans was divided into two types, the pre-evaluation and post-evaluation of the effect (after-effect evaluation). It summarized existing studies on the pre-evaluation at first, and then focused on the evaluation of emergency plans in the after-effects. This paper took hazardous chemicals spill incident as an example and applied multi-level and grey evaluation model method to the evaluation of contingency plans and built the evaluation model of incident of hazardous chemicals spill plans implementation.
Thirdly, research on effectiveness evaluation of contingency plans based on resilient perspective. This paper analyzed the reasons why current contingency plans were hard to be fully implemented in the real response from three following perspectives, namely definition of contingency, features of contingency and organization management. Contingency plan should not be just a rigid text file, but should be flexible, so as to meet the increasingly complex emergency situations, and constantly improve its actual availability. On this basis, the paper proposed the definition of flexibility of contingency plans. Then it proposed an thinking framework to evaluate the effectiveness of contingency plans based on resilient view, and it explained that when contingency plan of an organization can't be fully implemented, it can still make organization attain successful response by improving organization resilient potential, which is supported by the 911 case study.Furthermore, a conceptual model was abstracted based on the framework proposed above, and the rationality of the conceptual model was validated theoretically based on implementation theory.
Finally, the paper summarized the work has been done above, and proposed the prospect of future work.
This research can provide contingency planners and managers of all government levels efficient decision support on execution solution design, and evaluation of contingency plans. Thus it can help improve contingency plans to play more and more active roles in real response to emergency and reduce great loss in the future.
引文
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