基于风险区划的中国森林保险区域化发展研究
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摘要
为实现森林保险的可持续经营,必须要在测评实际森林灾害风险大小的基础上,建立完整的各种森林灾害损失数据库,依据科学的理论和方法合理划分风险区域并进行费率分区,在不同的风险区域开办不同的森林保险险种,并由中央财政根据各区域灾害风险等级进行保费补贴。这种操作不仅在不同风险等级的投保人之间实现了公平对待,同时也减轻了政府财政支持的负担。因此,根据区域差异制定适宜的费率,确定政府合适的补贴水平,是我国森林保险制度改革和发展的前提和方向。
目前我国国内关于森林保险的研究尚属初级阶段,多限于描述性分析、政策建议等内容,相关的定量研究较少,尤其是关于森林保险的精算研究更为薄弱。鉴于此,本文以我国森林保险区域差异化发展为依托,就森林灾害的风险评估、风险区划、森林保险的费率厘定、对政府财政补贴需求力度的大小等问题进行了深入、细致的实证研究和定量分析。
首先,论文在阐述森林保险、森林保险区划、区域森林保险发展的理论基础之上,结合我国森林保险的发展现状,指出有效需求与有效供给不足、逆向选择与道德风险、政府救助与林农参保、自愿投保与强制投保等问题是制约我国森林保险发展的症结所在,需要对森林保险进行财政补贴、风险区划和适度干预。通过对我国森林保险发展区域差异化的详尽分析,表明各区域应依据其特定的森林保险需求的种类、结构和数量,来决定区域森林保险供给的产品、费率和规模,并决定与之相适应的政府财政支持力度的大小。
其次,论文选取并量化了各类森林灾害的风险区划指标,针对火灾选取了森林火灾损失指标和火灾危险指标；针对森林病虫鼠害选取了“发生面积”,“成灾面积”,“发生率”,“成灾率”作为损失指标,“防治率”作为灾害损失的逆指标；以森林易损指数、森林规模指数、森林效率指数以及防灾能力指数作为森林灾害风险的通用指标。采用因子和聚类分析法,将我国31省市分别按森林火灾、病害、虫害、鼠害各因子综合得分的高低划分为灾害的高风险区、较高风险区、中风险区、较低风险区和低风险区。
再者,在对各地区历年森林灾害损失率进行核算后,文章采用指数平滑法对未来灾害损失率的大小进行了预测,并根据风险区划的结果,在该预测值上添加了稳定系数和风险系数,以此作为各类森林灾害保险的纯费率。并进一步根据森林保险纯费率、财政支付能力、林农的支付能力、区域保险业的发展水平对各地区森林保险补贴需求的强弱程度进行了预估。同时以湖南省森林保险业的发展作为案例分析,进一步验证了森林保险的保费收入与林农收入、区域经济发展水平、参保比例、上年度赔付率之间的关系,根据湖南省森林灾害风险区划和费率估算的结果,提出了该地区森林保险发展的优化策略。
最后,在划分出各个地区森林灾害的风险程度,制定出区域保险费率,分析完各区域森林保险补贴需求后,论文从森林保险的立法规制、再保险的制度设计、巨灾风险基金的筹集、使用、管理以及森林保险的监管体系完善四个方面,构建了我国森林保险可持续发展的统一保障体系。
To realize sustainable operation of forest insurance, a complete database of various forest casualty losses should be established based on the evaluation of actual forest disaster risk. The risk area and premium rate should be divided according to scientific theories and methods. The basic types of insurance offered premium subsidies by finance were run in the different risk areas based on various risk level. This operation not only was more fairly to policyholders, but also reduced the finance burden of government. Thus, it should be the prerequisite and direction of reform and development on forest insurance to set an appropriate insurance rate and subsidy rate.
Current domestic studies on forest insurance were in the primary stage, limited to descriptive analysis, policy recommendations. There was less for relevant quantitative research, especially less for actuarial studies. This article focused on the detailed empirical research and statistical analysis of risk assessment, risk zoning, rate making of forest disaster, and demand for financial subsidies, supported by regional development differences of forest insurance in China.
Firstly, on the basis of description of forest insurance, insurance division and regional development theory, the constraint factors for development forest insurance were analyzed in the article such as insufficient effective supply and effective demand, adverse selection and moral hazard, government assistance and forest insurance, voluntary insurance and compulsory insurance, combined with the present situation of forest insurance in China. These development measures of forest insurance should be taken to solve above problems such as financial subsidies, risk zoning, appropriate intervention. Through detailed regional differences description on forest insurance development, it pointed out that the products, rate, size of regional insurance supply is decided by the specific demands for insurance types, structure and quantity. The corresponding degree of government financial support was also determined by above factors.
Secondly, the risk zoning index of various forest disasters was selected and quantified in the fourth part of paper. Fire loss and fire danger index were the risk zoning index of forest fire. The pest, disease and rat disaster were described by occurrence acreage, damaged acreage, damaged rate as damage indicator and control rate as the inverse index of disaster loss. The forest vulnerability, scale, efficiency and disaster response capacity exponent were general index. By method of factor and cluster analysis,31 provinces and cities in China were respectively divided to high risk area, higher risk area, medium risk area, lower risk and low risk area.
Thirdly, In view of time series loss ratio on forest disasters, the exponential smoothing was used to predict the future loss rate. Stability coefficient and risk coefficient were added to get the pure forest insurance rate. The subsidies demand for forest insurance of each province was further estimated according to the factors of pure rates, financial payment capacity, purchasing power of forest householders, and development level of regional insurance. The forest insurance development in Hunan was taken as the case to verify the relationship of premium income, forest fanners income, regional economic development level, participating insurance rate, previous year claim ratio. And according to the result of risk division and premium rate, the study put forward the optimization strategy to further develop the forest insurance in Hunan Province.
Finally, after zoning the regional degree of risk, formulating the premium rate and analyzing the regional subsidies demand of forest insurance, a unified security system of forest insurance development in China was built from four aspects, such as the legislative regulation of forest insurance, reinsurance system, forest catastrophic risk fund, regulatory system for actinsurance.
目前我国国内关于森林保险的研究尚属初级阶段,多限于描述性分析、政策建议等内容,相关的定量研究较少,尤其是关于森林保险的精算研究更为薄弱。鉴于此,本文以我国森林保险区域差异化发展为依托,就森林灾害的风险评估、风险区划、森林保险的费率厘定、对政府财政补贴需求力度的大小等问题进行了深入、细致的实证研究和定量分析。
首先,论文在阐述森林保险、森林保险区划、区域森林保险发展的理论基础之上,结合我国森林保险的发展现状,指出有效需求与有效供给不足、逆向选择与道德风险、政府救助与林农参保、自愿投保与强制投保等问题是制约我国森林保险发展的症结所在,需要对森林保险进行财政补贴、风险区划和适度干预。通过对我国森林保险发展区域差异化的详尽分析,表明各区域应依据其特定的森林保险需求的种类、结构和数量,来决定区域森林保险供给的产品、费率和规模,并决定与之相适应的政府财政支持力度的大小。
其次,论文选取并量化了各类森林灾害的风险区划指标,针对火灾选取了森林火灾损失指标和火灾危险指标；针对森林病虫鼠害选取了“发生面积”,“成灾面积”,“发生率”,“成灾率”作为损失指标,“防治率”作为灾害损失的逆指标；以森林易损指数、森林规模指数、森林效率指数以及防灾能力指数作为森林灾害风险的通用指标。采用因子和聚类分析法,将我国31省市分别按森林火灾、病害、虫害、鼠害各因子综合得分的高低划分为灾害的高风险区、较高风险区、中风险区、较低风险区和低风险区。
再者,在对各地区历年森林灾害损失率进行核算后,文章采用指数平滑法对未来灾害损失率的大小进行了预测,并根据风险区划的结果,在该预测值上添加了稳定系数和风险系数,以此作为各类森林灾害保险的纯费率。并进一步根据森林保险纯费率、财政支付能力、林农的支付能力、区域保险业的发展水平对各地区森林保险补贴需求的强弱程度进行了预估。同时以湖南省森林保险业的发展作为案例分析,进一步验证了森林保险的保费收入与林农收入、区域经济发展水平、参保比例、上年度赔付率之间的关系,根据湖南省森林灾害风险区划和费率估算的结果,提出了该地区森林保险发展的优化策略。
最后,在划分出各个地区森林灾害的风险程度,制定出区域保险费率,分析完各区域森林保险补贴需求后,论文从森林保险的立法规制、再保险的制度设计、巨灾风险基金的筹集、使用、管理以及森林保险的监管体系完善四个方面,构建了我国森林保险可持续发展的统一保障体系。
To realize sustainable operation of forest insurance, a complete database of various forest casualty losses should be established based on the evaluation of actual forest disaster risk. The risk area and premium rate should be divided according to scientific theories and methods. The basic types of insurance offered premium subsidies by finance were run in the different risk areas based on various risk level. This operation not only was more fairly to policyholders, but also reduced the finance burden of government. Thus, it should be the prerequisite and direction of reform and development on forest insurance to set an appropriate insurance rate and subsidy rate.
Current domestic studies on forest insurance were in the primary stage, limited to descriptive analysis, policy recommendations. There was less for relevant quantitative research, especially less for actuarial studies. This article focused on the detailed empirical research and statistical analysis of risk assessment, risk zoning, rate making of forest disaster, and demand for financial subsidies, supported by regional development differences of forest insurance in China.
Firstly, on the basis of description of forest insurance, insurance division and regional development theory, the constraint factors for development forest insurance were analyzed in the article such as insufficient effective supply and effective demand, adverse selection and moral hazard, government assistance and forest insurance, voluntary insurance and compulsory insurance, combined with the present situation of forest insurance in China. These development measures of forest insurance should be taken to solve above problems such as financial subsidies, risk zoning, appropriate intervention. Through detailed regional differences description on forest insurance development, it pointed out that the products, rate, size of regional insurance supply is decided by the specific demands for insurance types, structure and quantity. The corresponding degree of government financial support was also determined by above factors.
Secondly, the risk zoning index of various forest disasters was selected and quantified in the fourth part of paper. Fire loss and fire danger index were the risk zoning index of forest fire. The pest, disease and rat disaster were described by occurrence acreage, damaged acreage, damaged rate as damage indicator and control rate as the inverse index of disaster loss. The forest vulnerability, scale, efficiency and disaster response capacity exponent were general index. By method of factor and cluster analysis,31 provinces and cities in China were respectively divided to high risk area, higher risk area, medium risk area, lower risk and low risk area.
Thirdly, In view of time series loss ratio on forest disasters, the exponential smoothing was used to predict the future loss rate. Stability coefficient and risk coefficient were added to get the pure forest insurance rate. The subsidies demand for forest insurance of each province was further estimated according to the factors of pure rates, financial payment capacity, purchasing power of forest householders, and development level of regional insurance. The forest insurance development in Hunan was taken as the case to verify the relationship of premium income, forest fanners income, regional economic development level, participating insurance rate, previous year claim ratio. And according to the result of risk division and premium rate, the study put forward the optimization strategy to further develop the forest insurance in Hunan Province.
Finally, after zoning the regional degree of risk, formulating the premium rate and analyzing the regional subsidies demand of forest insurance, a unified security system of forest insurance development in China was built from four aspects, such as the legislative regulation of forest insurance, reinsurance system, forest catastrophic risk fund, regulatory system for actinsurance.
引文
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