虚拟经济视角下金融危机研究
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摘要
世界各国金融自由化推动了资产证券化和金融创新,结果却引起了虚拟资产的大规模扩张。尤其是上世纪80年代以来,西方各国掀起了以“自由化”为特征的金融改革浪潮使得金融危机爆发的频率加快,其中具有代表性的有拉美债务危机、欧洲货币危机和亚洲金融危机等,这些金融危机共同的特点是危机产生的危害主要局限于局部范围,并没有扩散至全球。而爆发于2007年的美国金融危机则与以往不同,它起源于美国,蔓延至全球,最终对世界各国的经济体系造成不同程度的影响。这次金融危机造成的破坏超越了以往所有的金融危机。虽然危机爆发已经过去三年了,在世界各国的通力合作之下,世界经济在坎坷中不断前进,但是留下很多问题等待我们去思考,现实迫切要求我们对这些问题进行深入系统的理论研究。
通过对近几次金融危机的分析研究,我们可以发现这些危机产生的背后都有一个共同的因素,即虚拟经济过度膨胀。虚拟经济是一把“双刃剑”,它起初是在实体经济基础上发展起来了,它依附并服务于实体经济。但随着布雷顿森林体系崩溃,黄金非货币化使美元摆脱了束缚成为制度化的国际货币,导致了美元对全世界提供了流动性扩张。在全球流动性膨胀的过程中,虚拟经济规模快速加大,源源不断的资金流入了证券市场和金融衍生品市场,最终虚拟经济脱离实体经济。由于虚拟经济具有波动性特征,这使原本就脆弱的金融系统出现崩溃的可能性大大提高。而在虚拟经济领域中,场外金融衍生品交易由于其高杠杆和高风险,使之成为引发本轮金融危机的引爆点。
本文以美国金融危机为背景,从虚拟经济视角对金融危机进行理论研究,其意义在于：本文研究了世界经济虚拟化趋势及其高风险性,从理论上丰富和揭示了虚拟经济和实体经济的关联性,指出虚拟经济不能脱离实体经济而发展；由于“金融窖藏”的存在,现代货币数量理论必须考虚拟经济因素,考虑货币在实体经济和虚拟经济之间的流动,这丰富了货币数量理论的同时也为政府制定货币政策提供了理论依据；从理论上揭示了场外衍生交易高风险性是造成本轮金融危机的重要原因,指出了金融创新给世界经济带来繁荣的同时也埋下了危机的种子,所以政府必须加强对场外衍生品交易的监管。
全文共分七章。第一章为导论,主要对论文选题背景、研究意义、论文结构、研究方法和论文创新等进行概括性说明；第二章对虚拟经济和金融危机的概念进行界定,分析了金融危机的特征、表现形式和金融危机理论,以及虚拟经济的特征和发展阶段,最后揭示了虚拟经济和金融危机之间的联系；第三章从宏观层面解释了金融危机爆发的原因,即不协调性是虚拟经济与实体经济的常态,所以金融危机不可避免；第四章从中观层面解释金融危机的原因,即经济虚拟化使原本脆弱的金融系统更加容易崩溃；第五章从微观层面解释了金融危机爆发的原因,即场外金融衍生交易的高杠杆性和缺乏监管,使之成为金融危机爆发的源头；第六章对美国金融危机做了案例分析,验证了上文中对虚拟经济条件下金融危机理论研究；第七章研究了在虚拟经济环境下,中国如何防范金融风险,加强金融市场安全,并提出相关政策建议。
论文的创新主要体现在以下四个方面：
第一,本文构建了虚拟经济视角下金融危机的研究框架,该框架由三个层次组成：在宏观层面上,虚拟经济和实体经济非协调性是引发金融危机的根本原因；在中观层面上,由于经济虚拟化加大金融脆弱性,从而引发金融危机；在微观层面上,论文研究重心集中到虚拟经济领域中的场外金融衍生品交易环节,由于它具有高风险和难监管的特征,往往成为金融危机的源头。
第二,通过研究分析这次美国金融危机,论文揭示了与以往金融危机不同的新的特征和表现形式。以往的金融危机主要表现在实体经济领域,危机范围也是局部的,而本次金融危机产生于虚拟经济领域,危机的范围更是波及到了全世界几乎所有的国家。这次危机也论证了金融危机随着经济环境的变化而不断变化,金融危机理论也需要不断的补充更新。
第三,针对当前经济体系中虚拟经济逐步超越实体经济的现实,论文提出传统的货币理论已经不能完全解释当前的经济现象的观点,在论文中我们尝试将虚拟经济部门和实体经济部门结合起来研究货币循环机制和金融窖藏,为解释这次美国金融危机提供新的理论依据,也为政府在制定货币政策市提供参考。
第四,本文提出经济虚拟化的两个主要表现形式：一是产业空心化,是在产业结构升级和优化过程中不可避免的经济现象,二是金融衍生品膨胀,对于发展中国家而言,金融衍生品是实现金融深化的重要工具,它的建立和完善有助于健全市场架构,同时又可以通过基础市场融资规模的扩大来提高融资效率。这两者本身并不会产生金融危机,但是当经济出现产业结构缺口和衍生品泛滥时,它所产生的破坏力是任何国家都难以承受的。
Financial liberalization around the world promote asset securitization and financial innovation, the result has caused large-scale expansion of virtual assets. Especially since the 80s of last century, Western countries set off to "liberalization" as the characteristics of the wave of financial reforms made to speed up the frequency of financial crisis, which typically include the Latin American debt crisis, the European currency crisis and the Asian financial crisis, The financial crisis is a crisis shared characteristics of the main hazards arise limited to local areas and not spread to the world.In 2007, the outbreak of the U.S. financial crisis is different from the past, it originated in the United States, spread to the world, the world economy caused by different degrees. The damage caused by the financial crisis beyond all previous financial crisis. Although under the cooperation of all countries in the world, the world economy constantly move forward in the rough, but left many questions waiting for us to think about the reality on these issues urgently requires an in-depth theoretical research.
Through close analysis of several financial crises, we can find a common factor behind these crises, that is, over-expansion of virtual economy. Virtual economy is a "double-edged sword", which originally was developed based on the real economy, and its attachment, and serve the real economy. But with the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, non-monetary gold dollar out of bondage to become institutionalized in the international currency, the dollar has led the world to provide liquidity expansion. Expansion in global liquidity in the process of rapidly increasing size of the virtual economy, a steady flow of funds into the stock market and financial derivatives market, the ultimate virtual economy from the real economy. As the volatility characteristics of virtual economies, which makes the already fragile financial system collapse of possibility. In the virtual economy, the OTC derivatives trading due to its high leverage and high risk, making the financial crisis triggered the current round of tipping point.
Based on U.S. financial crisis as the background, from the virtual perspective on the financial crisis of economic theory to study the significance of the following:First, we studied the trend of world economy and the virtual high-risk sex, in theory and reveals the rich and the virtual economy the relevance of the real economy, virtual economy that can not be divorced from the real economy and development; second, because "financial cache of the existence of modern monetary theory to test the number of virtual economic factors, consider the money in the real economy and the flow between the virtual economy, It enriches the theory but also the quantity of money for the Government to formulate a theoretical basis for monetary policy; Third, in theory reveal the high risk of OTC derivatives trading contributed to an important reason for the current round of financial crisis, noting that financial innovation to the world bring economic prosperity while also planted the seeds of the crisis, the Government must strengthen supervision of OTC derivatives transactions.
Full-text is divided into seven chapters. The first chapter is an introduction, the main topics of the paper background, significance, paper structures, methods and conduct a general description papers innovation; the second chapter of the virtual economy and financial crisis, to define the concept, analysis of the characteristics of the financial crisis, expressions and the financial crisis theory, and the characteristics of the virtual economy and the development stage, and finally reveals the virtual economy and the linkages between the financial crisis; The third chapter explains the macro level, the reasons for the outbreak of the financial crisis, that incompatibility is a virtual economy normal and the real economy, so the financial crisis is inevitable; chapter from meso level to explain the reasons for the financial crisis that Virtual Economy fragile financial system to make it easier to collapse; fifth chapter explains the micro level, financial crisis reason, that OTC derivatives transactions, and lack of supervision of highly leveraged, making them the source of the outbreak of financial crisis; the sixth chapter of the U.S. financial crisis has done a case study to verify the above on the virtual economy theory of financial crisis; under Chapter VII of the economy in the virtual environment, the Chinese how to guard against financial risks and enhance security of the financial markets, and make relevant policy recommendations.
The Innovation of the paper as the follows:Firstly, we construct the Virtual Economy Research Framework of the financial crisis, the framework composed of three levels:at the macro level, the virtual economy and real economy is the cause of non-coordination the root causes of the financial crisis; in the concept level, because of the economic virtualization increase financial fragility, which triggered the financial crisis; at the micro level, the thesis focus on areas of focus to the virtual economy OTC derivatives trading links Because of its high risk and difficult to control the features, often the source of a financial crisis. Secondly, by analyzing the U.S. financial crisis, the paper revealed in previous financial crises and the different manifestations of the new features. The financial crisis in the past mainly in the real economy, the crisis is also a local area, while the financial crisis resulting from the virtual economy, the scope of the crisis is spread to almost all countries in the world. The crisis has also demonstrated the financial crisis, the economic environment changes with the changing needs of financial crisis theory constantly updated. Thirdly, the current economic system, the virtual economy to gradually transcend the reality of the real economy, we propose the traditional monetary theory can not fully explain the views of the current economic situation, in the paper, we try to virtual economy and real economy sectors combined study currency circulation mechanism and financial cellars, to explain the U.S. financial crisis to provide a new theoretical basis for monetary policy in the city government to provide reference. Fourth, this paper Virtual Economy two main forms:first, industrial hollowing out is to upgrade and optimize industrial structure in the inevitable process of economic phenomena, the second is the expansion of financial derivatives for developing countries, financial derivatives is an important tool to achieve financial deepening, which the establishment and improvement contributed to sound the market structure, while the basis of market financing by expanding the size to improve the efficiency of finance. Both in itself does not produce the financial crisis, but when the economy of structural gaps and the proliferation of derivatives, the destructive power it generates is unbearable to any country.
通过对近几次金融危机的分析研究,我们可以发现这些危机产生的背后都有一个共同的因素,即虚拟经济过度膨胀。虚拟经济是一把“双刃剑”,它起初是在实体经济基础上发展起来了,它依附并服务于实体经济。但随着布雷顿森林体系崩溃,黄金非货币化使美元摆脱了束缚成为制度化的国际货币,导致了美元对全世界提供了流动性扩张。在全球流动性膨胀的过程中,虚拟经济规模快速加大,源源不断的资金流入了证券市场和金融衍生品市场,最终虚拟经济脱离实体经济。由于虚拟经济具有波动性特征,这使原本就脆弱的金融系统出现崩溃的可能性大大提高。而在虚拟经济领域中,场外金融衍生品交易由于其高杠杆和高风险,使之成为引发本轮金融危机的引爆点。
本文以美国金融危机为背景,从虚拟经济视角对金融危机进行理论研究,其意义在于：本文研究了世界经济虚拟化趋势及其高风险性,从理论上丰富和揭示了虚拟经济和实体经济的关联性,指出虚拟经济不能脱离实体经济而发展；由于“金融窖藏”的存在,现代货币数量理论必须考虚拟经济因素,考虑货币在实体经济和虚拟经济之间的流动,这丰富了货币数量理论的同时也为政府制定货币政策提供了理论依据；从理论上揭示了场外衍生交易高风险性是造成本轮金融危机的重要原因,指出了金融创新给世界经济带来繁荣的同时也埋下了危机的种子,所以政府必须加强对场外衍生品交易的监管。
全文共分七章。第一章为导论,主要对论文选题背景、研究意义、论文结构、研究方法和论文创新等进行概括性说明；第二章对虚拟经济和金融危机的概念进行界定,分析了金融危机的特征、表现形式和金融危机理论,以及虚拟经济的特征和发展阶段,最后揭示了虚拟经济和金融危机之间的联系；第三章从宏观层面解释了金融危机爆发的原因,即不协调性是虚拟经济与实体经济的常态,所以金融危机不可避免；第四章从中观层面解释金融危机的原因,即经济虚拟化使原本脆弱的金融系统更加容易崩溃；第五章从微观层面解释了金融危机爆发的原因,即场外金融衍生交易的高杠杆性和缺乏监管,使之成为金融危机爆发的源头；第六章对美国金融危机做了案例分析,验证了上文中对虚拟经济条件下金融危机理论研究；第七章研究了在虚拟经济环境下,中国如何防范金融风险,加强金融市场安全,并提出相关政策建议。
论文的创新主要体现在以下四个方面：
第一,本文构建了虚拟经济视角下金融危机的研究框架,该框架由三个层次组成：在宏观层面上,虚拟经济和实体经济非协调性是引发金融危机的根本原因；在中观层面上,由于经济虚拟化加大金融脆弱性,从而引发金融危机；在微观层面上,论文研究重心集中到虚拟经济领域中的场外金融衍生品交易环节,由于它具有高风险和难监管的特征,往往成为金融危机的源头。
第二,通过研究分析这次美国金融危机,论文揭示了与以往金融危机不同的新的特征和表现形式。以往的金融危机主要表现在实体经济领域,危机范围也是局部的,而本次金融危机产生于虚拟经济领域,危机的范围更是波及到了全世界几乎所有的国家。这次危机也论证了金融危机随着经济环境的变化而不断变化,金融危机理论也需要不断的补充更新。
第三,针对当前经济体系中虚拟经济逐步超越实体经济的现实,论文提出传统的货币理论已经不能完全解释当前的经济现象的观点,在论文中我们尝试将虚拟经济部门和实体经济部门结合起来研究货币循环机制和金融窖藏,为解释这次美国金融危机提供新的理论依据,也为政府在制定货币政策市提供参考。
第四,本文提出经济虚拟化的两个主要表现形式：一是产业空心化,是在产业结构升级和优化过程中不可避免的经济现象,二是金融衍生品膨胀,对于发展中国家而言,金融衍生品是实现金融深化的重要工具,它的建立和完善有助于健全市场架构,同时又可以通过基础市场融资规模的扩大来提高融资效率。这两者本身并不会产生金融危机,但是当经济出现产业结构缺口和衍生品泛滥时,它所产生的破坏力是任何国家都难以承受的。
Financial liberalization around the world promote asset securitization and financial innovation, the result has caused large-scale expansion of virtual assets. Especially since the 80s of last century, Western countries set off to "liberalization" as the characteristics of the wave of financial reforms made to speed up the frequency of financial crisis, which typically include the Latin American debt crisis, the European currency crisis and the Asian financial crisis, The financial crisis is a crisis shared characteristics of the main hazards arise limited to local areas and not spread to the world.In 2007, the outbreak of the U.S. financial crisis is different from the past, it originated in the United States, spread to the world, the world economy caused by different degrees. The damage caused by the financial crisis beyond all previous financial crisis. Although under the cooperation of all countries in the world, the world economy constantly move forward in the rough, but left many questions waiting for us to think about the reality on these issues urgently requires an in-depth theoretical research.
Through close analysis of several financial crises, we can find a common factor behind these crises, that is, over-expansion of virtual economy. Virtual economy is a "double-edged sword", which originally was developed based on the real economy, and its attachment, and serve the real economy. But with the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, non-monetary gold dollar out of bondage to become institutionalized in the international currency, the dollar has led the world to provide liquidity expansion. Expansion in global liquidity in the process of rapidly increasing size of the virtual economy, a steady flow of funds into the stock market and financial derivatives market, the ultimate virtual economy from the real economy. As the volatility characteristics of virtual economies, which makes the already fragile financial system collapse of possibility. In the virtual economy, the OTC derivatives trading due to its high leverage and high risk, making the financial crisis triggered the current round of tipping point.
Based on U.S. financial crisis as the background, from the virtual perspective on the financial crisis of economic theory to study the significance of the following:First, we studied the trend of world economy and the virtual high-risk sex, in theory and reveals the rich and the virtual economy the relevance of the real economy, virtual economy that can not be divorced from the real economy and development; second, because "financial cache of the existence of modern monetary theory to test the number of virtual economic factors, consider the money in the real economy and the flow between the virtual economy, It enriches the theory but also the quantity of money for the Government to formulate a theoretical basis for monetary policy; Third, in theory reveal the high risk of OTC derivatives trading contributed to an important reason for the current round of financial crisis, noting that financial innovation to the world bring economic prosperity while also planted the seeds of the crisis, the Government must strengthen supervision of OTC derivatives transactions.
Full-text is divided into seven chapters. The first chapter is an introduction, the main topics of the paper background, significance, paper structures, methods and conduct a general description papers innovation; the second chapter of the virtual economy and financial crisis, to define the concept, analysis of the characteristics of the financial crisis, expressions and the financial crisis theory, and the characteristics of the virtual economy and the development stage, and finally reveals the virtual economy and the linkages between the financial crisis; The third chapter explains the macro level, the reasons for the outbreak of the financial crisis, that incompatibility is a virtual economy normal and the real economy, so the financial crisis is inevitable; chapter from meso level to explain the reasons for the financial crisis that Virtual Economy fragile financial system to make it easier to collapse; fifth chapter explains the micro level, financial crisis reason, that OTC derivatives transactions, and lack of supervision of highly leveraged, making them the source of the outbreak of financial crisis; the sixth chapter of the U.S. financial crisis has done a case study to verify the above on the virtual economy theory of financial crisis; under Chapter VII of the economy in the virtual environment, the Chinese how to guard against financial risks and enhance security of the financial markets, and make relevant policy recommendations.
The Innovation of the paper as the follows:Firstly, we construct the Virtual Economy Research Framework of the financial crisis, the framework composed of three levels:at the macro level, the virtual economy and real economy is the cause of non-coordination the root causes of the financial crisis; in the concept level, because of the economic virtualization increase financial fragility, which triggered the financial crisis; at the micro level, the thesis focus on areas of focus to the virtual economy OTC derivatives trading links Because of its high risk and difficult to control the features, often the source of a financial crisis. Secondly, by analyzing the U.S. financial crisis, the paper revealed in previous financial crises and the different manifestations of the new features. The financial crisis in the past mainly in the real economy, the crisis is also a local area, while the financial crisis resulting from the virtual economy, the scope of the crisis is spread to almost all countries in the world. The crisis has also demonstrated the financial crisis, the economic environment changes with the changing needs of financial crisis theory constantly updated. Thirdly, the current economic system, the virtual economy to gradually transcend the reality of the real economy, we propose the traditional monetary theory can not fully explain the views of the current economic situation, in the paper, we try to virtual economy and real economy sectors combined study currency circulation mechanism and financial cellars, to explain the U.S. financial crisis to provide a new theoretical basis for monetary policy in the city government to provide reference. Fourth, this paper Virtual Economy two main forms:first, industrial hollowing out is to upgrade and optimize industrial structure in the inevitable process of economic phenomena, the second is the expansion of financial derivatives for developing countries, financial derivatives is an important tool to achieve financial deepening, which the establishment and improvement contributed to sound the market structure, while the basis of market financing by expanding the size to improve the efficiency of finance. Both in itself does not produce the financial crisis, but when the economy of structural gaps and the proliferation of derivatives, the destructive power it generates is unbearable to any country.
引文
1胡延平,王成进.货币流视角下的虚拟经济与实体经济关系.改革与战略,2008.4：53
1 新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典经济科学出版社,2001
2 Kindleberger,C.P., Manias,Panics and Crashes:A History of Financial Crashes, Basic Books,New York,1978
3 Mishkin,F.,Understanding Financial Crisis,World Bank Conf.Development Economics,1996
4 Frederic S. Mlshkin., Financial Innovation and Current Trends in U.S. Financial Markets (NBER), November 1991
1 Minsky,H. The Financial Instability Hypothesis:Capitalist Process and the Behavior of the Economy, in Financial Crisis:Theory,History and Policy, Edited by Charles P., Kindlberger and Jean Pierre laffargue,1982,12-38. Cambridge:Cambridge Universtty Press
1马克思.资本论(第1卷).人民出版社1975年版
2马克思.资本论(第3卷).人民出版社1975年版
3 Keynes,J.M.The Consequences to The Banks of The Collapse of Money Values,In Essays in Persuasin,1931, reprinted, New York:W.W.Norton 1963; and in The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynesk, vol.9, London: Macmillan,1972
4 Fisher,I., The Debt Deflation Theory of Great Depression,Econometrica,1933:P337
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