国际市场势力与出口商品结构升级
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摘要
国际市场势力和出口商品结构都是经济学研究的重要论题,学术界对这两个论题分别进行了大量的深入研究。虽然两者之间存在较多的交叉领域,但目前学界很少对其演进及相互作用的机理进行分析,而从买、卖方国际市场势力视角研究两者演进动因及在中国的相互关系则更少。随着经济理论和中国对外贸易的发展,这些研究越来越成为了可能,为此,本文在分析国际市场势力与出口商品结构演进和相互作用机理的基础上,运用中国进出口数据对化工产品的买、卖方国际市场势力和出口商品结构状况进行了测度,并深入分析了买、卖方国际市场势力与出口商品结构的演进动力及其相互关系。以期达到以下目的：一是揭示国际市场势力与出口商品结构升级的动力及相互作用的内在机理；二是以中国对外贸易为对象进行实证研究,为国际市场势力和出口商品结构领域相关理论的发展提供新的经验证据；三是掌握中国产业买、卖方国际市场势力和出口商品结构升级的发展趋势及其演进动力,以为政府政策制定和企业战略决策提供相应的科学依据。
在理论上,通过拓展SMR(2007)和Helpman(1984)的理论框架,分析了国际市场势力和出口商品结构演进的机理,在此基础上,运用博弈论和产业组织理论的相关方法,分别从国际市场势力的来源和运用以及出口商品结构升级方式视角,分析了国际市场势力和出口商品结构升级之间相互作用的内在机理。通过机理分析得出：首先,国际市场势力和出口商品结构升级之间存在相互促进的良性互动可能；其次,国际市场势力对出口商品结构升级的作用力取决于厂商的利润再投资,企业将利润投资于本产业的高端时,有利于出口商品结构的升级；最后,一国出口商品结构升级对国际市场势力的作用力为正,但该正作用存在的前提是该国出口商品结构升级后所需的高端原材料国内能够提供。
在实证上,本文首先基于2002-2008年我国化工产业的省级区域层面出口数据,在修正和拓展Song-Marchant-Reed (2007)模型的基础上,运用横截面数据模型对7个亚产业的买、卖方国际市场势力进行了测度,并运用面板数据模型分析了买、卖方国际市场势力动态演进的动力。借鉴Schott(2006)模型结合HS4位码层面出口数据,测度了1993-2008年我国化工产业中11个亚产业出口商品结构与美国的相似度,并运用面板数据模型和误差修正模型分别从外部和内部两个方面着手,分析了出口商品结构升级的动因；最后在考虑解决内生性的基础上,运用Kao & Chiang(2000)提出的面板数据动态OLS模型对买、卖方国际市场势力与出口商品结构升级之间的相互关系进行了实证检验。
实证分析得到的结论主要有：首先,机理分析中的国际市场势力与出口商品结构升级之间的良性互动关系并未在我国的相应行业中出现,但从各指标增长率的作用力上看,具有形成良性循环的趋势和可能。具体为：买方国际市场势力与出口商品结构呈现双向负作用,出口商品结构升级对买方国际市场势力具有单向正作用,而买、卖方国际市场势力和出口商品结构升级的增长率均表现出正作用。其次,2002-2008年间我国化工业各亚产业的买、卖方国际市场势力较低,且买、卖方国际市场势力演进的外部动力差异较大,仅有技术设备引进是二者提升的共同动力,且各亚产业间并不存在两极分化的发展趋势。最后,在1993-2008年间,我国出口商品结构升级幅度较大,其升级主要动力是经济增长和劳动生产率的提升,而外部动力日益弱化,各亚产业的出口商品结构在2003年后有“两极分化”的发展趋势。
基于上述分析,本文最后提出了相应的政策建议,如鼓励和支持原料厂商向高端原料生产转型、引导企业利润再投资的方向、大力培养核心企业和高素质人才、引导和规范加工贸易以及注重自身品牌的培养等。以期加快国际市场势力和出口商品结构升级良性互动机制的形成,从而提高中国参与国际贸易的获益能力。
International market power and export commodity structure are very important topics in economic research, so far there are a lot of literatures appear in these two areas respectively. Although these two topics intersect with each other in a lot of fields, up to present little researchers pay attention to the relation of them, especially the study of their relation in China from the buyer and seller international market power angle. With the development of China's export, this research can be realized. This paper firstly analysis the mechanism of the effect between the two, then take advantage of the export data of China to estimate typical industry's international market power and export commodity structure, with the estimated results we analysis the effect to each other of the two. The main purposes of this paper are following: First, to find the reciprocal effect mechanism of international market power and export commodity structure. Second, take China as an object to analyze the relation between the two, so as to offer new empirical evidence to relative theory of these two areas. Third, find the developed trends and drive of International market power and export structure of the commodity, which can be a reference to the governments and enterprises.
Theoretically, this paper takes advantage of the methods of the game theory to analysis the mechanism of reciprocal effect between international market power and export commodity structure. The results shows:First there is a possibility that either parameters benefit the other one when they act on each other, Second the drive ability of International market power to the export commodity structure depend on the investment direction of the profit, which is earn by the use of international market power. Third the ascend of the export commodity structure will enhance international market power prominently, but this effect need the supply ability of high quality material, or else it may decline the international market power.
Empirically, this paper uses 2002-2008 Chinese chemical industry export data (provincial level) and properly revised Song-Marchant-Reed (2007) model to estimate 7 sub-industries' international market power through cross-section model, moreover we analyze the drive of the evolution of the buyer and seller's international market power from exogenous angle. Then this paper take advantage of Schott(2006) and export data of hs 4 digital level to estimate the export commodity structure of 11 chemical sub-industries from 1993 to 2008, also use the panel data model and VECM to study the evolution drive of the export commodity from domestic and aboard angle. Third, in order to avoid the endogenesis of the parameter, this paper use panel data DOLS model, which was constructed by Kao & Chiang (2000),to analyze the reciprocal effect of the buyer (seller) international market power and export commodity structure.
The main empirical results are following:First the mechanism of good reciprocal effects between the buyer (seller) international market power and export commodity structure are not exist in China, but the effect of their growth rate shows that the favorable situation may realized in the future, buyer international market power and export commodity structure are negative to each other, export commodity structure are positive to the seller international market power. Second Chinese sub-industries' international market power are very low from 2002 to 2008, moreover buyer international market power's drive are very different from seller international market power, the polarization haven't appeared in the development of international market power. Third export commodity structure ascends quickly from 1993 to 2008, the main drives to its evolution are economic development and upgrade of labor productivity, exterior drive's power become poorer and poorer, moreover different sub-industries'export commodity structure have become polarized since 2003.
Based on the above analysis, this paper put forward corresponding policy implications and suggestions, such as encourage material maufacture to produce high quality material, induce the enterprises to invest rightly,cultivate core enterprise and proficient workman. Expecting to expedite the establishment of good reciprocal effect of International market power and export commodity structure, so as to enhance China's earning power from the international trade.
在理论上,通过拓展SMR(2007)和Helpman(1984)的理论框架,分析了国际市场势力和出口商品结构演进的机理,在此基础上,运用博弈论和产业组织理论的相关方法,分别从国际市场势力的来源和运用以及出口商品结构升级方式视角,分析了国际市场势力和出口商品结构升级之间相互作用的内在机理。通过机理分析得出：首先,国际市场势力和出口商品结构升级之间存在相互促进的良性互动可能；其次,国际市场势力对出口商品结构升级的作用力取决于厂商的利润再投资,企业将利润投资于本产业的高端时,有利于出口商品结构的升级；最后,一国出口商品结构升级对国际市场势力的作用力为正,但该正作用存在的前提是该国出口商品结构升级后所需的高端原材料国内能够提供。
在实证上,本文首先基于2002-2008年我国化工产业的省级区域层面出口数据,在修正和拓展Song-Marchant-Reed (2007)模型的基础上,运用横截面数据模型对7个亚产业的买、卖方国际市场势力进行了测度,并运用面板数据模型分析了买、卖方国际市场势力动态演进的动力。借鉴Schott(2006)模型结合HS4位码层面出口数据,测度了1993-2008年我国化工产业中11个亚产业出口商品结构与美国的相似度,并运用面板数据模型和误差修正模型分别从外部和内部两个方面着手,分析了出口商品结构升级的动因；最后在考虑解决内生性的基础上,运用Kao & Chiang(2000)提出的面板数据动态OLS模型对买、卖方国际市场势力与出口商品结构升级之间的相互关系进行了实证检验。
实证分析得到的结论主要有：首先,机理分析中的国际市场势力与出口商品结构升级之间的良性互动关系并未在我国的相应行业中出现,但从各指标增长率的作用力上看,具有形成良性循环的趋势和可能。具体为：买方国际市场势力与出口商品结构呈现双向负作用,出口商品结构升级对买方国际市场势力具有单向正作用,而买、卖方国际市场势力和出口商品结构升级的增长率均表现出正作用。其次,2002-2008年间我国化工业各亚产业的买、卖方国际市场势力较低,且买、卖方国际市场势力演进的外部动力差异较大,仅有技术设备引进是二者提升的共同动力,且各亚产业间并不存在两极分化的发展趋势。最后,在1993-2008年间,我国出口商品结构升级幅度较大,其升级主要动力是经济增长和劳动生产率的提升,而外部动力日益弱化,各亚产业的出口商品结构在2003年后有“两极分化”的发展趋势。
基于上述分析,本文最后提出了相应的政策建议,如鼓励和支持原料厂商向高端原料生产转型、引导企业利润再投资的方向、大力培养核心企业和高素质人才、引导和规范加工贸易以及注重自身品牌的培养等。以期加快国际市场势力和出口商品结构升级良性互动机制的形成,从而提高中国参与国际贸易的获益能力。
International market power and export commodity structure are very important topics in economic research, so far there are a lot of literatures appear in these two areas respectively. Although these two topics intersect with each other in a lot of fields, up to present little researchers pay attention to the relation of them, especially the study of their relation in China from the buyer and seller international market power angle. With the development of China's export, this research can be realized. This paper firstly analysis the mechanism of the effect between the two, then take advantage of the export data of China to estimate typical industry's international market power and export commodity structure, with the estimated results we analysis the effect to each other of the two. The main purposes of this paper are following: First, to find the reciprocal effect mechanism of international market power and export commodity structure. Second, take China as an object to analyze the relation between the two, so as to offer new empirical evidence to relative theory of these two areas. Third, find the developed trends and drive of International market power and export structure of the commodity, which can be a reference to the governments and enterprises.
Theoretically, this paper takes advantage of the methods of the game theory to analysis the mechanism of reciprocal effect between international market power and export commodity structure. The results shows:First there is a possibility that either parameters benefit the other one when they act on each other, Second the drive ability of International market power to the export commodity structure depend on the investment direction of the profit, which is earn by the use of international market power. Third the ascend of the export commodity structure will enhance international market power prominently, but this effect need the supply ability of high quality material, or else it may decline the international market power.
Empirically, this paper uses 2002-2008 Chinese chemical industry export data (provincial level) and properly revised Song-Marchant-Reed (2007) model to estimate 7 sub-industries' international market power through cross-section model, moreover we analyze the drive of the evolution of the buyer and seller's international market power from exogenous angle. Then this paper take advantage of Schott(2006) and export data of hs 4 digital level to estimate the export commodity structure of 11 chemical sub-industries from 1993 to 2008, also use the panel data model and VECM to study the evolution drive of the export commodity from domestic and aboard angle. Third, in order to avoid the endogenesis of the parameter, this paper use panel data DOLS model, which was constructed by Kao & Chiang (2000),to analyze the reciprocal effect of the buyer (seller) international market power and export commodity structure.
The main empirical results are following:First the mechanism of good reciprocal effects between the buyer (seller) international market power and export commodity structure are not exist in China, but the effect of their growth rate shows that the favorable situation may realized in the future, buyer international market power and export commodity structure are negative to each other, export commodity structure are positive to the seller international market power. Second Chinese sub-industries' international market power are very low from 2002 to 2008, moreover buyer international market power's drive are very different from seller international market power, the polarization haven't appeared in the development of international market power. Third export commodity structure ascends quickly from 1993 to 2008, the main drives to its evolution are economic development and upgrade of labor productivity, exterior drive's power become poorer and poorer, moreover different sub-industries'export commodity structure have become polarized since 2003.
Based on the above analysis, this paper put forward corresponding policy implications and suggestions, such as encourage material maufacture to produce high quality material, induce the enterprises to invest rightly,cultivate core enterprise and proficient workman. Expecting to expedite the establishment of good reciprocal effect of International market power and export commodity structure, so as to enhance China's earning power from the international trade.
引文
10 Hall和Weiss指出“我们更倾向于使用权益收益率.....为所有者的最高利益工作的管理者都必须用权益收益率最大化......”。参见Steven Martin的《高级产业经济学》第145页。
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