高寒山区降水垂直分布规律及融雪径流模拟研究
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摘要
针对高寒山区降水分布不清、融雪因子多变等阻碍了融雪降雨径流形成的研究与洪水预报的应用,并考虑到分布式水文模型在融雪径流模拟与洪水预报方面具有一定的优势,以地理信息系统(GIS)为平台,以天山山区典型流域为实例,以三水源新安江模型为基础构建了分布式流域水文模型,充分利用基本水文站、气象站、自动测报站和遥感数据以及挖掘基层水情技术人员的经验。基于TRMM/TMI卫星降水数据与实测站点降水数据探讨了TRMM/TMI卫星对天山山区降水的探测能力及其在受自然和地形条件限制而无法监测地区降水分析预测中的可用性,通过流域出流过程分解识别与流域总出流划分水源的合理性分析方法,研究天山山区降水的垂直分布、融雪因子的时空分布规律,提出分布规律的分析方法与表达方式,为观测资料缺乏流域水文预报模型中参数确定提供依据,提高融雪径流研究的科学水平,为降水资料观测缺乏地区水文预报模型中参数的确定提供一定依据。同时,为新疆防洪预警支持系统提供具体的预报模型与方法。主要结果如下:
(1)天山西部山区降水的空间分布变异性很大,但具有明显的规律性。从降水的水平分布来看,流域内高山区比低山区降水量多,但是较低高程迎风坡上的降水量会大于更高山区迎风坡上的降水量,因此,在一个流域上年降水量的平面分布,是按流域山脊线高程从上到下存在一位于迎风坡上的高值区,中高山区年降水量分布与水汽来向和坡向的组合具有很好的对应关系。从垂直分布来看:
1)降水随高程的变化规律天山南北坡明显不同:在天山山区不同坡段,表现出不同的垂直变化特点,伊犁河流域和天山南坡中段,有一个降水高值带,伊犁河流域最大降水高度在3241m左右,天山南坡中部最大降水高度在3558m,天山北麓中段5000m以下区域降水量随高程的变化略呈“S”型,没有明显的变化拐点;天山北麓西段总的趋势是4000m以下降水量随高程变化而增加,但波动较多,呈现两个“S”型相接状。
2)降水垂直变化率在天山山区南北坡有较大的差异:伊犁河流域4500m以下区域年降水量垂直变化率在-7.42～5.64mm/100m之间,天山南坡中部4500m以下区域年降水量垂直变化率在-13.39～37.78mm/100m之间,天山北麓中段5000m以下区域年降水量垂直变化率在1.14～8.95mm/100m之间;天山北麓西段年降水量垂直变化率在-9.98～17.80 mm/100m之间。
(2)研究区积雪覆盖率和NDVI除自身的变化规律外,两者之间存在较好的相关关系。自2001～2008年研究区积雪覆盖率有减少的趋势,而植被覆盖度普遍存在改善的趋势,但改善的幅度不大。
(3)天山山区气温存在明显的升高趋势,但径流变化趋势不明显。基于80年代和2000年分辨率为1km的土地利用类型对比分析,耕地向草地和居民点及工矿用地的转换构成了土地利用变化的主导过程,其中居民点及工矿用地变化率最大。山区土地利用未发生大的变化,融雪径流对LUCC的响应基本一致。
(4)建立了天山西部山区分布式水文模型。为降低模型开发成本,基于GIS开源项目GDAL和MapWinGIS实现了GIS基本功能,并开发了流域信息提取模块。基于三水源新安江模型开发了一个耦合融雪、融冰和土壤冻融过程的分布式水文模型,并在喀什河流域应用,得到了比较好的效果。
The research on snowmelt and rainfall runoff and the application of flood forecasting is restricted in high cold alpine areas because of the complexity of precipitation distribution law, the variability of snowmelt factor, the lack of monitored data and so on. Considering the distributed hydrological model reflects some advantages in snowmelt runoff and flood-forecast research, so the distributed hydrological model is built in Tianshan Mountain areas based on the Xinanjiang Model using DEMs, GIS technology and snow monitoring data from remote sensing satellite data of study area. It will be fully used that measured data are from the basic station, from the meteorological station, from automatic system of hydrologic data collection and transmission, from remote sensing data and that experience gained by the engineering and skilled workers in the primary river management unit. The detection ability of TRMM/TMI satellite for precipitation in Tianshan Mountains is discussed based on TRMM/TMI satellite precipitation data and observed precipitation data, and the availability of TRMM/TMI satellite in precipitation analysis and forecast in where no precipitation monitoring as the limitation on natural and terrain condition is analyzed. By disassembling the outflow of watershed and selecting rationality analysis methods on delineation hydrological process, the laws on precipitation vertical distribution and space and time distribution of snowmelt factor in Tianshan Mountains are analyzed, and found the expression ways on before-mentioned laws and distribution. It is important that laws will provide the basis for parameter identification of hydrology forecast model in lack-data watershed, and advance the snowmelt runoff research means. At the same time, they provide the concrete forecast model and the method for Xinjiang floods prevents and early warning support system. The main results as follow:
(1) The spatial distribution variability of precipitation is complex in the west of Tianshan Mountains, but it has obvious law. From horizontal distributions of precipitation we find that the precipitation is more in high mountainous areas than low mountainous areas, but there is more precipitation in windward slope of lower elevations zones than higher elevations zones. The horizontal distribution law of annual total precipitation is that there is a high value area where is located in windward slope based on the ridge line elevations from the top down, precipitation distribution law is correlative with vapor origins and aspect in middle-high mountain areas. From the vertical direction we know the rules are: 1) Precipitation variation rule is obviously different with elevation on the north and south slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, and it represents different vertical variation characters in different slope gradients of Tianshan Mountain areas. There is a high-value zone on precipitation in Yili river basin and the middle part of southern slope of Tianshan Mountains. The maximum belt of precipitation is about 3241m in Yili river basin and the middle part of southern slope of Tianshan Mountains is about 3558m. The precipitation showes a S-shaped autocatalytic characteristics with the elevation changing at elevations lower than 5000m in the west of northern slope of Tianshan Mountains, there are no obviously changing inflexions. The precipitation variation tendency is precipitation increasing with the change of elevaions, but the fluctuate is larger, and it showes two S-shaped autocatalytic characteristics.
2) There are larger differences on the vertical change rate of precipitation. The vertical change rate of precipitation is -7.42～5.64mm/100m at elevations lower than 4500m in Yili river basin; the vertical change rate of precipitation is -13.39～37.78mm/100m at elevations lower than 4500m in the middle part of southern slope of Tianshan Mountains; the vertical change rate of precipitation is 1.14～8.95mm/100m at elevations lower than 5000m in the middle northern piedmont of Tianshan Mountains; the vertical change rate of precipitation is -9.98～17.80mm/100m in the west of northern slope of Tianshan Mountains.
(2)The snow cover and NDVI have better correlation besides themselves variation laws. The snow cover rate represents decrease tendency between 2001 and 2008, and land cover commonly exists obvious ameliorating tendency, but the scope is small.
(3) Through analyzing the long-term trend of hydrological and meteorological changes in study area showed that temperature presents an obvious increasing tendency, and the variable tendency of precipitation is not obvious. Contrast analysis the land-use types with resolution 1km between 1980's and 2000 showed that the land use types had been changed not much in mountainous area. The mainly changing is cultivated land to grassland and the proportion of residential and mining land. The proportion of residential and mining land increase quickly. Using the SWAT model we found the response on snowmelt runoff in the mountainous regions to LUCC was a close correspondence between 1980's and 2000, and the influence on LUCC to runoff basically had no large change.
(4) The distributed hydrological model on the west Tianshan Mountains is built. In order to reduce the model development cost, the GIS open source project GDAL and MapWinGIS are used and the software has some functions such as the basic function of GIS, the module for watershed information extraction is developed, it could easily realize the watershed information extraction by DEM data. Based on three-water-source Xinanjiang Model, the digital hydrological model which considered snowmelt, ice and frozen soil hydrology process is built. The model is applied to simulate the snowmelt-runoff of Kashen river watershed in 2005 and the results are better and reflect the actual changing trend of the runoff.
(1)天山西部山区降水的空间分布变异性很大,但具有明显的规律性。从降水的水平分布来看,流域内高山区比低山区降水量多,但是较低高程迎风坡上的降水量会大于更高山区迎风坡上的降水量,因此,在一个流域上年降水量的平面分布,是按流域山脊线高程从上到下存在一位于迎风坡上的高值区,中高山区年降水量分布与水汽来向和坡向的组合具有很好的对应关系。从垂直分布来看:
1)降水随高程的变化规律天山南北坡明显不同:在天山山区不同坡段,表现出不同的垂直变化特点,伊犁河流域和天山南坡中段,有一个降水高值带,伊犁河流域最大降水高度在3241m左右,天山南坡中部最大降水高度在3558m,天山北麓中段5000m以下区域降水量随高程的变化略呈“S”型,没有明显的变化拐点;天山北麓西段总的趋势是4000m以下降水量随高程变化而增加,但波动较多,呈现两个“S”型相接状。
2)降水垂直变化率在天山山区南北坡有较大的差异:伊犁河流域4500m以下区域年降水量垂直变化率在-7.42～5.64mm/100m之间,天山南坡中部4500m以下区域年降水量垂直变化率在-13.39～37.78mm/100m之间,天山北麓中段5000m以下区域年降水量垂直变化率在1.14～8.95mm/100m之间;天山北麓西段年降水量垂直变化率在-9.98～17.80 mm/100m之间。
(2)研究区积雪覆盖率和NDVI除自身的变化规律外,两者之间存在较好的相关关系。自2001～2008年研究区积雪覆盖率有减少的趋势,而植被覆盖度普遍存在改善的趋势,但改善的幅度不大。
(3)天山山区气温存在明显的升高趋势,但径流变化趋势不明显。基于80年代和2000年分辨率为1km的土地利用类型对比分析,耕地向草地和居民点及工矿用地的转换构成了土地利用变化的主导过程,其中居民点及工矿用地变化率最大。山区土地利用未发生大的变化,融雪径流对LUCC的响应基本一致。
(4)建立了天山西部山区分布式水文模型。为降低模型开发成本,基于GIS开源项目GDAL和MapWinGIS实现了GIS基本功能,并开发了流域信息提取模块。基于三水源新安江模型开发了一个耦合融雪、融冰和土壤冻融过程的分布式水文模型,并在喀什河流域应用,得到了比较好的效果。
The research on snowmelt and rainfall runoff and the application of flood forecasting is restricted in high cold alpine areas because of the complexity of precipitation distribution law, the variability of snowmelt factor, the lack of monitored data and so on. Considering the distributed hydrological model reflects some advantages in snowmelt runoff and flood-forecast research, so the distributed hydrological model is built in Tianshan Mountain areas based on the Xinanjiang Model using DEMs, GIS technology and snow monitoring data from remote sensing satellite data of study area. It will be fully used that measured data are from the basic station, from the meteorological station, from automatic system of hydrologic data collection and transmission, from remote sensing data and that experience gained by the engineering and skilled workers in the primary river management unit. The detection ability of TRMM/TMI satellite for precipitation in Tianshan Mountains is discussed based on TRMM/TMI satellite precipitation data and observed precipitation data, and the availability of TRMM/TMI satellite in precipitation analysis and forecast in where no precipitation monitoring as the limitation on natural and terrain condition is analyzed. By disassembling the outflow of watershed and selecting rationality analysis methods on delineation hydrological process, the laws on precipitation vertical distribution and space and time distribution of snowmelt factor in Tianshan Mountains are analyzed, and found the expression ways on before-mentioned laws and distribution. It is important that laws will provide the basis for parameter identification of hydrology forecast model in lack-data watershed, and advance the snowmelt runoff research means. At the same time, they provide the concrete forecast model and the method for Xinjiang floods prevents and early warning support system. The main results as follow:
(1) The spatial distribution variability of precipitation is complex in the west of Tianshan Mountains, but it has obvious law. From horizontal distributions of precipitation we find that the precipitation is more in high mountainous areas than low mountainous areas, but there is more precipitation in windward slope of lower elevations zones than higher elevations zones. The horizontal distribution law of annual total precipitation is that there is a high value area where is located in windward slope based on the ridge line elevations from the top down, precipitation distribution law is correlative with vapor origins and aspect in middle-high mountain areas. From the vertical direction we know the rules are: 1) Precipitation variation rule is obviously different with elevation on the north and south slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, and it represents different vertical variation characters in different slope gradients of Tianshan Mountain areas. There is a high-value zone on precipitation in Yili river basin and the middle part of southern slope of Tianshan Mountains. The maximum belt of precipitation is about 3241m in Yili river basin and the middle part of southern slope of Tianshan Mountains is about 3558m. The precipitation showes a S-shaped autocatalytic characteristics with the elevation changing at elevations lower than 5000m in the west of northern slope of Tianshan Mountains, there are no obviously changing inflexions. The precipitation variation tendency is precipitation increasing with the change of elevaions, but the fluctuate is larger, and it showes two S-shaped autocatalytic characteristics.
2) There are larger differences on the vertical change rate of precipitation. The vertical change rate of precipitation is -7.42～5.64mm/100m at elevations lower than 4500m in Yili river basin; the vertical change rate of precipitation is -13.39～37.78mm/100m at elevations lower than 4500m in the middle part of southern slope of Tianshan Mountains; the vertical change rate of precipitation is 1.14～8.95mm/100m at elevations lower than 5000m in the middle northern piedmont of Tianshan Mountains; the vertical change rate of precipitation is -9.98～17.80mm/100m in the west of northern slope of Tianshan Mountains.
(2)The snow cover and NDVI have better correlation besides themselves variation laws. The snow cover rate represents decrease tendency between 2001 and 2008, and land cover commonly exists obvious ameliorating tendency, but the scope is small.
(3) Through analyzing the long-term trend of hydrological and meteorological changes in study area showed that temperature presents an obvious increasing tendency, and the variable tendency of precipitation is not obvious. Contrast analysis the land-use types with resolution 1km between 1980's and 2000 showed that the land use types had been changed not much in mountainous area. The mainly changing is cultivated land to grassland and the proportion of residential and mining land. The proportion of residential and mining land increase quickly. Using the SWAT model we found the response on snowmelt runoff in the mountainous regions to LUCC was a close correspondence between 1980's and 2000, and the influence on LUCC to runoff basically had no large change.
(4) The distributed hydrological model on the west Tianshan Mountains is built. In order to reduce the model development cost, the GIS open source project GDAL and MapWinGIS are used and the software has some functions such as the basic function of GIS, the module for watershed information extraction is developed, it could easily realize the watershed information extraction by DEM data. Based on three-water-source Xinanjiang Model, the digital hydrological model which considered snowmelt, ice and frozen soil hydrology process is built. The model is applied to simulate the snowmelt-runoff of Kashen river watershed in 2005 and the results are better and reflect the actual changing trend of the runoff.
引文
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