环境约束下中国经济增长绩效研究
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摘要
改革开放以来,中国成为世界上经济增长最快的国家,但同时也为此支付了高昂的代价,粗放型发展方式使得发达国家上百年工业化过程中阶段性显现的环境问题在我国近年来集中出现。因此,转变经济发展方式,使经济转向“又好又快”发展已成为我国经济实现全面可持续性发展的当务之急。就“好”的内涵而言,一是要提高TFP对经济增长的贡献,二是要尽量减少经济活动对环境产生的不利影响。与此相应,正确评价我国经济发展绩效就必须在传统效率及TFP研究基础上考虑到环境因素的影响。
然而,国内在环境约束框架下考察经济增长绩效的文献较少。为此,本文构建了一个的较为全面的中国绿色经济绩效研究框架,通过非参数的方向性距离函数方法,将环境因素纳入效率及TFP分析,系统测度了环境约束下我国地区、行业及工业部门三个层面的综合绩效表现。并以环境技术效率(ETE)和Malmquist-Luenberger全要素生产率指数(绿色TFP)的测度为核心,探讨了经济与环境协调性及其影响因素和作用机制,绿色TFP的地区及行业差异和收敛,环境技术创新地区,地区工业化发展类型及其路径选择等问题。本文的研究将在很大程度上拓展我国绿色经济发展绩效评价的经验研究,弥补了对于我国经济绿色TFP增长研究上的空白,为我国建立“两型”社会,实现经济全面、协调可持续发展提供理论依据。
本文的主要研究结论如下：
1.地区经济增长绩效测算结果表明,环境约束下东部地区的整体效率最高内部差异最小,西部地区整体效率最低内部差异最大,中部地区皆居中。而绿色TFP增长由高到低的区域则依次为西、东、中部,ETE最低的西部地区表现出了较高的绿色TFP增长趋势。就全国整体而言,绿色TFP增长率不到传统TFP增长率的1／3,且TFP增长完全来自于前沿技术进步,地区间效率差距几乎没有得到改善。可见,在环境技术进步严重滞后、新一轮重化工业化进程以及国家“保增长”政策的背景下,我国在今后相当长一段时期内减排压力将依然存在。
2.对37个工业行业在不考虑环境因素和分别控制COD、SO2、CO2排放四种情形下的经济增长绩效考察结果表明,环境约束下行业的技术效率均低于不考虑环境因素时的技术效率,且行业间差异显著(最大差距接近两倍)。TFP增长主要源自于领先行业的技术进步带动,行业间效率差距正日益拉大。此外,控制CO2排放时的绿色TFP增长最快,而控制COD排放时最慢。收敛性分析也表明,仅控制COD排放情形下的TFP增长未显示出明显的行业收敛特征,这反映出我国控制水体污染的综合技术进步相对较慢。我国是淡水资源严重缺乏的国家,目前西南地区的持续干旱灾害给中国敲响了警钟,因此,在响应国际气候峰会和大力发展“低碳经济”的同时,也不可忽视改善水体污染的综合技术进步。
3.环境约束条件下我国地区工业部门TFP增长呈现出以下特征：西部增长最快且波动幅度最大,中部增长最慢且较为平稳,东部则均介于二者之间。并且,全国及三大地区工业TFP增长均主要源自于前沿技术进步,效率改进贡献甚微。推动环境技术创新主要是经济发达的东部,而中部要远远落后于东部和西部。在对环境约束条件下工业TFP收敛分析中发现,就全国整体而言,既存在绝对收敛也存在相对收敛。分区域来看,我国东、中、西部地区工业TFP均存在条件β收敛,即各地区的工业TFP正朝着各自的稳态趋近。但绝对收敛检验的结果却差异较大,西部和东部地区显示出俱乐部收敛特征,而中部地区却显现出微弱的发散特征。
4.通过TE和ETE的二维分析框架,本文将我国地区工业发展分为资源节约环境友好型(北京、上海等)、资源节约环境污染型(山西、辽宁、湖北等)、资源浪费环境友好型(天津、广西等)、资源浪费环境污染型(安徽、江西等)四种类型。其中,广西实现了从资源浪费环境污染型发展模式到资源节约环境友好型发展模式的跨越式发展,而黑龙江、湖北、天津三地在处理经济效率和环境保护平衡间摇摆。从三大区域层面来看,东部地区在整体上已处于资源节约型和环境友好型工业发展模式,而中、西部地区的工业经济发展总体上仍然走的是资源浪费型和环境污染型的工业化发展老路。
5.对ETE影响因素的实证研究表明,生活水平的提高、深化国企改革、提高企业规模、调整出口结构、加大科技投入都有利于ETE的进一步提升,而重化工业化进程、资本有机构成的提高以及技术引进缺乏消化吸收和再创新则阻碍了ETE的提升。
Since reform and opening, China has become the fastest growing country in the world, but it has paid the high price for it such as a series of serious environmental problems. So it is necessary to transform the way of economic growth, and to enhance the contribution of TFP to economic growth while minimizing the adverse effects of economic activity on the environment. Correspondingly, the correct evaluation of the performance of China's economic development must take into account of environmental factors. Based on directional distance function, this article integrates environmental factors into the analysis framework of relative efficiency and TFP, which attempts to rationally evaluate the quality of China's economic development.
Measurements of environmental technical efficiency (ETE) and green TFP from the perspecives of regions, industries and industrial sectors constitute the core part of this dissertation. Moreover, we discuss a series of problems such as the coordinaton of economic growth and environment, the regional green TFP differences and convergence, the environmental technology innovators, new industrialization patterns, factors associated with changes in ETE and so on. The main conclusions are as follows:
1. There was the highest overall efficiency and lowest intenal difference in the eastern region, while the western region was quite the opposite. With consideting environmental factors, the Easten region has the fastest TFP growth, followed by the central and the western region. However, the western region has the fastest green TFP growth, followed by the Estern and the Central region. Green TFP growth rate of the national economy was less than 1/3 of traditional TFP growth rate, and both came from the front technical progress. The efficiency gap between regions has no improvement. So China will still under pressure of reducing pollution emissions in a long time within the context of the new round of heavy industrialization process, the national "Maintain Economic Growth" policy and the serious lag in environment technical progress.
2. Industrial sectors' ETE are lower than their TE, and efficiency between industries are highly unbalanced. TFP growth was mainly derived from leading industries'technical progress, while the efficiency gap between industries is widening continuously. There is the fastest TFP growth under the control of CO2 emissions, and the slowest TFP growth when controlling COD emission. Convergence analysis also shows that only the TFP growth when controlling COD emission do not display significant industrial convergence characteristics. China is a conntry which is serious lack of fresh water, and currently ongoing drought in Southwest sounds the alarm bell for China. Therefore, it can not be ignored that integrated technology progress considering improve the water pollution when get response to international climate summit and develop "low-carbon economy".
3. The study on green TFP growth in China's regional industrial sector shows that the western region has the fastest growth and highest volatility, and the central region has the slowest growth and is relatively stable, the eastern region is in between. National and three region's industrial TFP growths are mainly derived from the leading technical progress. To promote environmental technology innovation is mainly the developed eastern region, while the cetral region is far behind. There is not only relative convergence but also absolute convergence existed in national green TFP growth. Industrial TFP in three regions of China all exist conditionalβconvergence that is these regions'industrial TFP is moving closer to their steady state. But the absolute convergence test results are quite different. Te western and eastern regions show the club convergence characteristics, while the central region has revealed a weak divergence characteristics.
4. The dissertation also constructs a theoretical framework of new industrialization pattern. The pattern of industrial development in China can be divided into four types: resources-saving and environment-friendly, resource-saving and environment-pollutive, resources-wasteful and environment-friendly, resources-wasteful and environment-pollutive. The eastern region has been in resource-saving and environment-friendly industrialization development model as a whole, while the central and western areas are still in resources-wasting and environment-pollutive oriented industrialization development model.
5. Empirical study on ETE diaparity and its affecting factors has shown that improvement of living standards, deepening SOE reform, improving the scale of enterprises, adjusting the export structure, and increasing scientific and technological inputs are conducive to further enhance ETE, while heavy industrialization process, the raising of capital organic composition and lack of digestion, absorption and reinnovation of technology import are harmful to ETE improvement.
然而,国内在环境约束框架下考察经济增长绩效的文献较少。为此,本文构建了一个的较为全面的中国绿色经济绩效研究框架,通过非参数的方向性距离函数方法,将环境因素纳入效率及TFP分析,系统测度了环境约束下我国地区、行业及工业部门三个层面的综合绩效表现。并以环境技术效率(ETE)和Malmquist-Luenberger全要素生产率指数(绿色TFP)的测度为核心,探讨了经济与环境协调性及其影响因素和作用机制,绿色TFP的地区及行业差异和收敛,环境技术创新地区,地区工业化发展类型及其路径选择等问题。本文的研究将在很大程度上拓展我国绿色经济发展绩效评价的经验研究,弥补了对于我国经济绿色TFP增长研究上的空白,为我国建立“两型”社会,实现经济全面、协调可持续发展提供理论依据。
本文的主要研究结论如下：
1.地区经济增长绩效测算结果表明,环境约束下东部地区的整体效率最高内部差异最小,西部地区整体效率最低内部差异最大,中部地区皆居中。而绿色TFP增长由高到低的区域则依次为西、东、中部,ETE最低的西部地区表现出了较高的绿色TFP增长趋势。就全国整体而言,绿色TFP增长率不到传统TFP增长率的1／3,且TFP增长完全来自于前沿技术进步,地区间效率差距几乎没有得到改善。可见,在环境技术进步严重滞后、新一轮重化工业化进程以及国家“保增长”政策的背景下,我国在今后相当长一段时期内减排压力将依然存在。
2.对37个工业行业在不考虑环境因素和分别控制COD、SO2、CO2排放四种情形下的经济增长绩效考察结果表明,环境约束下行业的技术效率均低于不考虑环境因素时的技术效率,且行业间差异显著(最大差距接近两倍)。TFP增长主要源自于领先行业的技术进步带动,行业间效率差距正日益拉大。此外,控制CO2排放时的绿色TFP增长最快,而控制COD排放时最慢。收敛性分析也表明,仅控制COD排放情形下的TFP增长未显示出明显的行业收敛特征,这反映出我国控制水体污染的综合技术进步相对较慢。我国是淡水资源严重缺乏的国家,目前西南地区的持续干旱灾害给中国敲响了警钟,因此,在响应国际气候峰会和大力发展“低碳经济”的同时,也不可忽视改善水体污染的综合技术进步。
3.环境约束条件下我国地区工业部门TFP增长呈现出以下特征：西部增长最快且波动幅度最大,中部增长最慢且较为平稳,东部则均介于二者之间。并且,全国及三大地区工业TFP增长均主要源自于前沿技术进步,效率改进贡献甚微。推动环境技术创新主要是经济发达的东部,而中部要远远落后于东部和西部。在对环境约束条件下工业TFP收敛分析中发现,就全国整体而言,既存在绝对收敛也存在相对收敛。分区域来看,我国东、中、西部地区工业TFP均存在条件β收敛,即各地区的工业TFP正朝着各自的稳态趋近。但绝对收敛检验的结果却差异较大,西部和东部地区显示出俱乐部收敛特征,而中部地区却显现出微弱的发散特征。
4.通过TE和ETE的二维分析框架,本文将我国地区工业发展分为资源节约环境友好型(北京、上海等)、资源节约环境污染型(山西、辽宁、湖北等)、资源浪费环境友好型(天津、广西等)、资源浪费环境污染型(安徽、江西等)四种类型。其中,广西实现了从资源浪费环境污染型发展模式到资源节约环境友好型发展模式的跨越式发展,而黑龙江、湖北、天津三地在处理经济效率和环境保护平衡间摇摆。从三大区域层面来看,东部地区在整体上已处于资源节约型和环境友好型工业发展模式,而中、西部地区的工业经济发展总体上仍然走的是资源浪费型和环境污染型的工业化发展老路。
5.对ETE影响因素的实证研究表明,生活水平的提高、深化国企改革、提高企业规模、调整出口结构、加大科技投入都有利于ETE的进一步提升,而重化工业化进程、资本有机构成的提高以及技术引进缺乏消化吸收和再创新则阻碍了ETE的提升。
Since reform and opening, China has become the fastest growing country in the world, but it has paid the high price for it such as a series of serious environmental problems. So it is necessary to transform the way of economic growth, and to enhance the contribution of TFP to economic growth while minimizing the adverse effects of economic activity on the environment. Correspondingly, the correct evaluation of the performance of China's economic development must take into account of environmental factors. Based on directional distance function, this article integrates environmental factors into the analysis framework of relative efficiency and TFP, which attempts to rationally evaluate the quality of China's economic development.
Measurements of environmental technical efficiency (ETE) and green TFP from the perspecives of regions, industries and industrial sectors constitute the core part of this dissertation. Moreover, we discuss a series of problems such as the coordinaton of economic growth and environment, the regional green TFP differences and convergence, the environmental technology innovators, new industrialization patterns, factors associated with changes in ETE and so on. The main conclusions are as follows:
1. There was the highest overall efficiency and lowest intenal difference in the eastern region, while the western region was quite the opposite. With consideting environmental factors, the Easten region has the fastest TFP growth, followed by the central and the western region. However, the western region has the fastest green TFP growth, followed by the Estern and the Central region. Green TFP growth rate of the national economy was less than 1/3 of traditional TFP growth rate, and both came from the front technical progress. The efficiency gap between regions has no improvement. So China will still under pressure of reducing pollution emissions in a long time within the context of the new round of heavy industrialization process, the national "Maintain Economic Growth" policy and the serious lag in environment technical progress.
2. Industrial sectors' ETE are lower than their TE, and efficiency between industries are highly unbalanced. TFP growth was mainly derived from leading industries'technical progress, while the efficiency gap between industries is widening continuously. There is the fastest TFP growth under the control of CO2 emissions, and the slowest TFP growth when controlling COD emission. Convergence analysis also shows that only the TFP growth when controlling COD emission do not display significant industrial convergence characteristics. China is a conntry which is serious lack of fresh water, and currently ongoing drought in Southwest sounds the alarm bell for China. Therefore, it can not be ignored that integrated technology progress considering improve the water pollution when get response to international climate summit and develop "low-carbon economy".
3. The study on green TFP growth in China's regional industrial sector shows that the western region has the fastest growth and highest volatility, and the central region has the slowest growth and is relatively stable, the eastern region is in between. National and three region's industrial TFP growths are mainly derived from the leading technical progress. To promote environmental technology innovation is mainly the developed eastern region, while the cetral region is far behind. There is not only relative convergence but also absolute convergence existed in national green TFP growth. Industrial TFP in three regions of China all exist conditionalβconvergence that is these regions'industrial TFP is moving closer to their steady state. But the absolute convergence test results are quite different. Te western and eastern regions show the club convergence characteristics, while the central region has revealed a weak divergence characteristics.
4. The dissertation also constructs a theoretical framework of new industrialization pattern. The pattern of industrial development in China can be divided into four types: resources-saving and environment-friendly, resource-saving and environment-pollutive, resources-wasteful and environment-friendly, resources-wasteful and environment-pollutive. The eastern region has been in resource-saving and environment-friendly industrialization development model as a whole, while the central and western areas are still in resources-wasting and environment-pollutive oriented industrialization development model.
5. Empirical study on ETE diaparity and its affecting factors has shown that improvement of living standards, deepening SOE reform, improving the scale of enterprises, adjusting the export structure, and increasing scientific and technological inputs are conducive to further enhance ETE, while heavy industrialization process, the raising of capital organic composition and lack of digestion, absorption and reinnovation of technology import are harmful to ETE improvement.
引文
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①关于经济增长与环境关系的理论研究详细文献综述可见Gastaldo and Ragot (1996)、Panavotou (2000)。
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