基于事故链的电网脆弱性评估与稳定控制
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摘要
随着经济发展和资源环境的压力日益严峻,现代电网将以超高压、大容量、远距离输电和大区互联为显著特征。近年来国内外发生的几起大停电事故表明连锁故障是危及现代电网安全稳定的主要问题,在事故发展过程中充分暴露了大型互联电网的脆弱性,因此对大停电的发展机理、脆弱性评估以及预防措施的研究愈发重要和迫切。国内外学者做了大量研究工作,提出了多种连锁故障模型,如高阶概率模型、复杂网络模型、稳态模型等,并在此基础上研究电网的脆弱性,但是由于模型没有充分考虑电网物理特性和运行中的不确定性因素,与实际情况存在一定的偏差；而连锁故障的预防多是在传统稳定控制方法基础上进行局部的预测和调整,针对连锁故障的控制研究并不多见,电网脆弱性评估在连锁故障控制中的应用等问题尚未解决。本文针对这些问题重点研究了基于事故链模型的电网脆弱性评估和连锁故障的控制问题,主要做了如下工作：
(1)连锁故障模型作为脆弱性评估和控制的基础,根据潮流转移、线路相继过载以及输电断面的破坏这一连锁故障的典型发展模式,首先研究了电力系统事故链模型的在线生成方法。该方法的核心是对事故链中间环节的预测,以线路故障作为基本事件完成每一级事故链中间环节的预测,考虑到事故链中间环节全部触发将造成系统失稳,因此采用暂态稳定判据确定事故链是否生成完毕。该方法依赖于线路的动态信息,可以考虑到潮流和暂态稳定问题,对系统的模型有良好的适应性并且计算简单,可通过在线计算实现。
(2)电力系统事故链模型作为典型的多重连锁故障序列,与电网的脆弱性密切相关；同时事故链又可以看做复杂的多米诺骨牌效应,每条事故链的触发关联着事故链的中间环节及其对应的影响因素,因此事故链中间环节影响因素的研究对电网脆弱性评估非常重要。将事故链中间环节作为简单的人机系统,其触发受到人因这一不确定性的因素影响较大,鉴于目前电力系统对人因量化分析的不足,依据当前人因可靠性分析的重要成果,基于模糊-克隆选择的量化方法,研究了电力系统的人因安全量化模型,为事故链的重要度评估提供人因失效的概率。
(3)从脆弱性和连锁故障角度出发,事故链之间具有可比性,表现在事故链触发的概率和后果,因此引入风险理论对事故链的风险重要度进行研究,将事故链的风险分解为事故链中间环节触发概率和后果的加权值,并以中间环节为单位综合考虑了连锁故障中设备、人因等影响因素。然后,依据事故链的风险重要度,总结了可靠性领域中重要度方法的优劣,研究适用于电力系统的脆弱性评估方法。基于事故链风险重要度的电网脆弱性评估方法计算简单,几乎不受到网络规模的影响,可以对输电线路和输电断面的脆弱性进行排序,通过仿真验证了方法的有效性,并给出了电网脆弱性与稳定性和大停电的关系。
(4)基于电网脆弱性评估的结论,针对连锁故障的慢动态和快动态两个阶段,分别研究了连锁故障的预防控制和紧急控制原理以及控制的协调执行方案。连锁故障慢动态阶段,通过预防脆弱线路的过载、失稳和强制故障来避免连锁故障的逐步蔓延,并着重研究了电网存在突出脆弱线路的条件下基于暂态支路势能的脆弱线路稳定控制,通过仿真计算验证了基于脆弱环节的连锁故障预防控制的有效性。连锁故障快动态阶段,消除脆弱断面分区内的不平衡功率是稳定控制的首要问题,首先考虑到发电机保护动作的随机性以及紧急控制对系统的二次扰动问题,引入模糊推理和风险分析,研究了功率平衡紧急控制实时启动方法；然后基于粒子群优化算法研究了当启动条件满足时脆弱分区内部的紧急控制策略,以快速计算控制地点及相应的控制量。通过仿真计算验证了该紧急控制原理的有效性和应用前景。
With the development of the economy and the stresses from resources and entironment, the modern power grid is characterized as eltra high voltage, long-distance transmission, large capacity generators and cross-regional interconnections.Therefore, the researches on the evolvement, vulnerability and preventive measures of blackouts have been received much attention. Many works have been done and some cascading outage models have been proposed, such as high-level probabilistic model, complex network model and state-steady model. On the basis of the models, the vulnerability has been analyzed, however, the analytical results were imprecise to the practical system because some models were ignored the power flow and stability of system and the uncertainties in the operational conditions. And, in the existing works, preventive measures were presented to partial prediction and control, while the researches of the control methods against the cascading failures were very few. Additionally, the application of vulnerability assessment results in cascading failure controls has not been solved so far. In this paper, the vulnerability assessment based on the fault chain model and the control methods against cascading failures are studied. The main works are as follows:
The model of cascading failures is the foundation of vulnerability assessment and control. According to the typical mode of cascading failures, i.e. power flow transfer, sequent overload of lines and damage of transimission segments, the online determination method of the fault chain model is proposed in this paper. The predictive index of fault chain links is the core of the method. A fault chain can be obtained through calculating the index until the system is unstable. The method depending on the dynamic communication of lines and taking the power flow and transient stability into account is accommodated to the system model and computed online efficiently.
The fault chain model as the typical sequence of cascading failure can be also regarded as complex domino effect. The occurrence of a fault chain is associated with that of each fault chain link, which is a simple man-mechine system. The occurrence of a fault chain link is influenced by some uncertainties such as human factor, but the human factor quantitative analysis is not enough for power system. Therefore, based on the human reliability analysis, the human security quantitative model is proposed in this paper using the fuzzy clone selection algorithm. The results of human error probability can be applied to fault chain assessment.
The fault chains are comparable from the aspects of vulnerability and cascading failures. The comparability is expressed as the probability and the consequence of the fault chain. Therefore, the risk theory is introduced and the risk importance of fault chains is proposed. The risk importance of fault chains integrates the probabilities and consequences of occurrences of fault chain links, which are connected with many uncertain factors during the cascading outages. And then, based on the fault chain risk importances, the vulnerability assessment method of power grid is derived from the importance measures of reliability research. The method can be calculated in an efficient way hardly influenced by the grid size. The validity of the method can be demontrated by the simulations, and the relationship between vulnerability of power grid and stability is also provided in the simulations.
On the basis of the vulnerability assessment conclusions, the preventive control and emergency control thoeries and their executive scheme are proposed to address the slow-phase and the speedy-phase of cascading failures. During the course of the slow motion of cascading outages, the prevention of the overload, instability and intentional attack of vulnerable lines is the main work. In this paper, the control method of the vulnerable lines using transient potential energy is proposed against the instability of the most vulnerable line. During the speedy motion of cascading outages, the system is very dangerous so that eliminating the imbalance power is the primary problem. Taking the uncertain factor caused by generator relay and the control cost into account, the real-time initiation approach of power balance emergency control based on fuzzy risk analysis and control stategy using the particle swarm optimization algorithm are proposed in this paper. Finally, the validity and prospect of the methods are testified by the simulations.
(1)连锁故障模型作为脆弱性评估和控制的基础,根据潮流转移、线路相继过载以及输电断面的破坏这一连锁故障的典型发展模式,首先研究了电力系统事故链模型的在线生成方法。该方法的核心是对事故链中间环节的预测,以线路故障作为基本事件完成每一级事故链中间环节的预测,考虑到事故链中间环节全部触发将造成系统失稳,因此采用暂态稳定判据确定事故链是否生成完毕。该方法依赖于线路的动态信息,可以考虑到潮流和暂态稳定问题,对系统的模型有良好的适应性并且计算简单,可通过在线计算实现。
(2)电力系统事故链模型作为典型的多重连锁故障序列,与电网的脆弱性密切相关；同时事故链又可以看做复杂的多米诺骨牌效应,每条事故链的触发关联着事故链的中间环节及其对应的影响因素,因此事故链中间环节影响因素的研究对电网脆弱性评估非常重要。将事故链中间环节作为简单的人机系统,其触发受到人因这一不确定性的因素影响较大,鉴于目前电力系统对人因量化分析的不足,依据当前人因可靠性分析的重要成果,基于模糊-克隆选择的量化方法,研究了电力系统的人因安全量化模型,为事故链的重要度评估提供人因失效的概率。
(3)从脆弱性和连锁故障角度出发,事故链之间具有可比性,表现在事故链触发的概率和后果,因此引入风险理论对事故链的风险重要度进行研究,将事故链的风险分解为事故链中间环节触发概率和后果的加权值,并以中间环节为单位综合考虑了连锁故障中设备、人因等影响因素。然后,依据事故链的风险重要度,总结了可靠性领域中重要度方法的优劣,研究适用于电力系统的脆弱性评估方法。基于事故链风险重要度的电网脆弱性评估方法计算简单,几乎不受到网络规模的影响,可以对输电线路和输电断面的脆弱性进行排序,通过仿真验证了方法的有效性,并给出了电网脆弱性与稳定性和大停电的关系。
(4)基于电网脆弱性评估的结论,针对连锁故障的慢动态和快动态两个阶段,分别研究了连锁故障的预防控制和紧急控制原理以及控制的协调执行方案。连锁故障慢动态阶段,通过预防脆弱线路的过载、失稳和强制故障来避免连锁故障的逐步蔓延,并着重研究了电网存在突出脆弱线路的条件下基于暂态支路势能的脆弱线路稳定控制,通过仿真计算验证了基于脆弱环节的连锁故障预防控制的有效性。连锁故障快动态阶段,消除脆弱断面分区内的不平衡功率是稳定控制的首要问题,首先考虑到发电机保护动作的随机性以及紧急控制对系统的二次扰动问题,引入模糊推理和风险分析,研究了功率平衡紧急控制实时启动方法；然后基于粒子群优化算法研究了当启动条件满足时脆弱分区内部的紧急控制策略,以快速计算控制地点及相应的控制量。通过仿真计算验证了该紧急控制原理的有效性和应用前景。
With the development of the economy and the stresses from resources and entironment, the modern power grid is characterized as eltra high voltage, long-distance transmission, large capacity generators and cross-regional interconnections.Therefore, the researches on the evolvement, vulnerability and preventive measures of blackouts have been received much attention. Many works have been done and some cascading outage models have been proposed, such as high-level probabilistic model, complex network model and state-steady model. On the basis of the models, the vulnerability has been analyzed, however, the analytical results were imprecise to the practical system because some models were ignored the power flow and stability of system and the uncertainties in the operational conditions. And, in the existing works, preventive measures were presented to partial prediction and control, while the researches of the control methods against the cascading failures were very few. Additionally, the application of vulnerability assessment results in cascading failure controls has not been solved so far. In this paper, the vulnerability assessment based on the fault chain model and the control methods against cascading failures are studied. The main works are as follows:
The model of cascading failures is the foundation of vulnerability assessment and control. According to the typical mode of cascading failures, i.e. power flow transfer, sequent overload of lines and damage of transimission segments, the online determination method of the fault chain model is proposed in this paper. The predictive index of fault chain links is the core of the method. A fault chain can be obtained through calculating the index until the system is unstable. The method depending on the dynamic communication of lines and taking the power flow and transient stability into account is accommodated to the system model and computed online efficiently.
The fault chain model as the typical sequence of cascading failure can be also regarded as complex domino effect. The occurrence of a fault chain is associated with that of each fault chain link, which is a simple man-mechine system. The occurrence of a fault chain link is influenced by some uncertainties such as human factor, but the human factor quantitative analysis is not enough for power system. Therefore, based on the human reliability analysis, the human security quantitative model is proposed in this paper using the fuzzy clone selection algorithm. The results of human error probability can be applied to fault chain assessment.
The fault chains are comparable from the aspects of vulnerability and cascading failures. The comparability is expressed as the probability and the consequence of the fault chain. Therefore, the risk theory is introduced and the risk importance of fault chains is proposed. The risk importance of fault chains integrates the probabilities and consequences of occurrences of fault chain links, which are connected with many uncertain factors during the cascading outages. And then, based on the fault chain risk importances, the vulnerability assessment method of power grid is derived from the importance measures of reliability research. The method can be calculated in an efficient way hardly influenced by the grid size. The validity of the method can be demontrated by the simulations, and the relationship between vulnerability of power grid and stability is also provided in the simulations.
On the basis of the vulnerability assessment conclusions, the preventive control and emergency control thoeries and their executive scheme are proposed to address the slow-phase and the speedy-phase of cascading failures. During the course of the slow motion of cascading outages, the prevention of the overload, instability and intentional attack of vulnerable lines is the main work. In this paper, the control method of the vulnerable lines using transient potential energy is proposed against the instability of the most vulnerable line. During the speedy motion of cascading outages, the system is very dangerous so that eliminating the imbalance power is the primary problem. Taking the uncertain factor caused by generator relay and the control cost into account, the real-time initiation approach of power balance emergency control based on fuzzy risk analysis and control stategy using the particle swarm optimization algorithm are proposed in this paper. Finally, the validity and prospect of the methods are testified by the simulations.
引文
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