人口老龄化对中国经济增长的影响
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摘要
我国经济发展面临着极为严峻的人口老龄化挑战已是不争的事实。人口老龄化改变的不仅仅是人口年龄结构,还将通过消费、劳动力供给、劳动生产率、人力资本投资和社会及家庭养老保障对经济增长和人们生活产生深远的影响。本研究偿试立足于我国经济与社会发展现实,从理论与实证的角度对人口老龄化将对我国经济增长的影响展开论证,为我国人口发展战略的调整提供经济视角的考量。
本研究分三个步骤进行。第一步,首先总结我国人口老龄化的现状、特征,然后从人口转变类型的角度揭示我国人口年龄结构快速老龄化的原因,最后基于实证研究探讨我国人口变量与经济变量之间的相互关系。为后叙研究工作的展开提供人口基本状况依据。第二步,将从消费、劳动力供给、劳动生产率、人力资本投资和社会养老保障五方面对人口老龄化将对我国经济增长的影响进行全面探讨。第三步,总结研究结果并提出应对人口老龄化的政策建议。
本研究的主要结论有：
第一、引入当量消费人口和有效劳动力两个概念通过计算认为,2030年老年人将成为我国主要被赡养人群。人口增长率下降和人口年龄结构老龄化,将造成我国消费需求严重不足。今后20年内这种状况还将加剧,使得我国运用国内力量扩大内需应对国际经济冲击的能力减弱。
第二、在对我国各年龄段劳动年龄人口劳动参与率预测的基础上,我国经济活动人口年龄结构呈明显老龄化趋势。老年经济活动人口将于2015年左右超过中年经济活动人口,成为经济活动人口中人数最多的群体。人口老龄化形成的国内需求人群上升和劳动力供给不足的双重挤压,未来我国劳动力短缺问题将更加突出。
第三、从我国老年人市场劳动和家庭劳动参与的事实两个方面肯定了老年人对社会与家庭的贡献,提出应重新认识老年人被赡养性质,并且这也是制定能有效提高老年人生活水平政策的前提。通过对海南60岁及以上农村老年人劳动参与、家庭代际转移和生活状况实证研究认为,农村家庭养老保障效果有限,迫切需要建立起高覆盖、有保障的农村社会养老保障体系。
第四、通过现有经济增长与社会养老保障制度的研究文献综合比较分析认为,现收现付社会养老保障促进经济增长的功能来自于人力资本外溢效应的内部化,消除过度资本积累和减少生育率。阻碍经济增长的功能来自于：第一,替代养老物质资本积累,引起由物质资本积累外溢推动下的经济增长减速；第二、因物质资本减少,利率上升,未来工资收入现值下降,人力资本投资成本增加,人力资本形成减少；第三,促使个人提早退休,减少经济活动人口比例,人均GDP增长率下降。
总结研究结论认为,我国长达三十年的严格的计划生育政策已造成了我国人口年龄结构迅速老龄化,新生婴儿出生性别比严重失调和降低人口质量提高速度等负面影响。生育政策不等同于经济发展,生育政策应是阶段性的,而经济发展是永恒的,生育政策应服务于经济发展。面对当前变化的人口、经济与社会形势,我国应采取积极行动放弃现有生育政策,不能再次错失人口调整机会,给未来经济发展造成灾难性的后果。
It is an obvious fact that economic development of china faces with serious challenge brought by population aging. Population aging not only changes the age structure of population, but will deeply effects the economic growth and living standard, through consumption, labor supply, labor productivity, human capital investment and social security. The thesis, basing on Chinese economic and social realism, researches the population aging impacting on economic growth, in order to offering economic evidences for the transfer of the family planning policy.
The thesis includes three sections. In the first section, paper sums up the status quo, characters of the population aging first. Then the paper exposes the reasons of population aging from the point of the kinds of demographic transition. Finally, grounding on empirical research, paper discusses the relationship between the economic variable and population variable. In the second section, paper investigates the population aging impacting on economic growth roundly. In the last section, paper sums up the main conclusions and point out the policy proposal.
The main conclusions of the thesis are:first, through leading in two concepts of equivalent consumption population and effective labor, the elderly will be the main supported people in 2030, which leads to the domestic consumption deficiency, and the same situation will continue in the future 20 years. Such situation seriously weakens the ability coping with the international economic impulsion by enlarging domestic consumption. Second, old age labor will exceed middle age labor in 2015, becoming the main labor. Under the press of domestic consumption increasing and labor supply scarcity brought by population aging, labor short will be more serious. Third, for the fact of the elderly high labor participation rate, the paper points out that we should acknowledge the contribution of the elderly bring to the society and family, which will be the base of the polity aiming to improving the welfare of age people. The empirical research of Hainan age people living situation shows that transfer between generations can't provide enough economic support to the elderly living in country, which means that social security should be founded in country. Last, through summing up the research papers of social security, pay-as-you-go social security will bring positive and negative effects to economic growth synchronously. And the negative effects come from reducing physical capital accumulation, increasing human capital accumulation cost by boosting interest rate and spurring retiring early. Positive effects are brought by interior of human capital exterior effect, eliminating excess physical capital accumulation and reducing bearing rate.
Summarizing the research, we believe that thirty years family planning policy of china was the cause of population aging, new born baby sex rate unbalance and population quality improvement decelerating. Family planning policy isn't equal to development policy. Development policy is the forever aim, and Family planning policy should work for it. Facing with changing population, society and economic conditions, china should abandon family planning policy actively. Otherwise, we will lose the opportunity again, and leads calamity to economic development in the future.
本研究分三个步骤进行。第一步,首先总结我国人口老龄化的现状、特征,然后从人口转变类型的角度揭示我国人口年龄结构快速老龄化的原因,最后基于实证研究探讨我国人口变量与经济变量之间的相互关系。为后叙研究工作的展开提供人口基本状况依据。第二步,将从消费、劳动力供给、劳动生产率、人力资本投资和社会养老保障五方面对人口老龄化将对我国经济增长的影响进行全面探讨。第三步,总结研究结果并提出应对人口老龄化的政策建议。
本研究的主要结论有：
第一、引入当量消费人口和有效劳动力两个概念通过计算认为,2030年老年人将成为我国主要被赡养人群。人口增长率下降和人口年龄结构老龄化,将造成我国消费需求严重不足。今后20年内这种状况还将加剧,使得我国运用国内力量扩大内需应对国际经济冲击的能力减弱。
第二、在对我国各年龄段劳动年龄人口劳动参与率预测的基础上,我国经济活动人口年龄结构呈明显老龄化趋势。老年经济活动人口将于2015年左右超过中年经济活动人口,成为经济活动人口中人数最多的群体。人口老龄化形成的国内需求人群上升和劳动力供给不足的双重挤压,未来我国劳动力短缺问题将更加突出。
第三、从我国老年人市场劳动和家庭劳动参与的事实两个方面肯定了老年人对社会与家庭的贡献,提出应重新认识老年人被赡养性质,并且这也是制定能有效提高老年人生活水平政策的前提。通过对海南60岁及以上农村老年人劳动参与、家庭代际转移和生活状况实证研究认为,农村家庭养老保障效果有限,迫切需要建立起高覆盖、有保障的农村社会养老保障体系。
第四、通过现有经济增长与社会养老保障制度的研究文献综合比较分析认为,现收现付社会养老保障促进经济增长的功能来自于人力资本外溢效应的内部化,消除过度资本积累和减少生育率。阻碍经济增长的功能来自于：第一,替代养老物质资本积累,引起由物质资本积累外溢推动下的经济增长减速；第二、因物质资本减少,利率上升,未来工资收入现值下降,人力资本投资成本增加,人力资本形成减少；第三,促使个人提早退休,减少经济活动人口比例,人均GDP增长率下降。
总结研究结论认为,我国长达三十年的严格的计划生育政策已造成了我国人口年龄结构迅速老龄化,新生婴儿出生性别比严重失调和降低人口质量提高速度等负面影响。生育政策不等同于经济发展,生育政策应是阶段性的,而经济发展是永恒的,生育政策应服务于经济发展。面对当前变化的人口、经济与社会形势,我国应采取积极行动放弃现有生育政策,不能再次错失人口调整机会,给未来经济发展造成灾难性的后果。
It is an obvious fact that economic development of china faces with serious challenge brought by population aging. Population aging not only changes the age structure of population, but will deeply effects the economic growth and living standard, through consumption, labor supply, labor productivity, human capital investment and social security. The thesis, basing on Chinese economic and social realism, researches the population aging impacting on economic growth, in order to offering economic evidences for the transfer of the family planning policy.
The thesis includes three sections. In the first section, paper sums up the status quo, characters of the population aging first. Then the paper exposes the reasons of population aging from the point of the kinds of demographic transition. Finally, grounding on empirical research, paper discusses the relationship between the economic variable and population variable. In the second section, paper investigates the population aging impacting on economic growth roundly. In the last section, paper sums up the main conclusions and point out the policy proposal.
The main conclusions of the thesis are:first, through leading in two concepts of equivalent consumption population and effective labor, the elderly will be the main supported people in 2030, which leads to the domestic consumption deficiency, and the same situation will continue in the future 20 years. Such situation seriously weakens the ability coping with the international economic impulsion by enlarging domestic consumption. Second, old age labor will exceed middle age labor in 2015, becoming the main labor. Under the press of domestic consumption increasing and labor supply scarcity brought by population aging, labor short will be more serious. Third, for the fact of the elderly high labor participation rate, the paper points out that we should acknowledge the contribution of the elderly bring to the society and family, which will be the base of the polity aiming to improving the welfare of age people. The empirical research of Hainan age people living situation shows that transfer between generations can't provide enough economic support to the elderly living in country, which means that social security should be founded in country. Last, through summing up the research papers of social security, pay-as-you-go social security will bring positive and negative effects to economic growth synchronously. And the negative effects come from reducing physical capital accumulation, increasing human capital accumulation cost by boosting interest rate and spurring retiring early. Positive effects are brought by interior of human capital exterior effect, eliminating excess physical capital accumulation and reducing bearing rate.
Summarizing the research, we believe that thirty years family planning policy of china was the cause of population aging, new born baby sex rate unbalance and population quality improvement decelerating. Family planning policy isn't equal to development policy. Development policy is the forever aim, and Family planning policy should work for it. Facing with changing population, society and economic conditions, china should abandon family planning policy actively. Otherwise, we will lose the opportunity again, and leads calamity to economic development in the future.
引文
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