油页岩资源潜力评价与开发优选方法研究
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摘要
在能源日趋紧缺的今天,油页岩作为油气的替代能源,因其巨大的储量和潜在的综合利用价值,其研究引起全世界的广泛关注。
论文采用沉积学、层序地层学、矿产勘查学、矿床学、经济学和管理学等多学科研究方法,开展油页岩资源潜力评价、开发优选方法和经济评价研究。
通过野外露头观测、实测剖面、钻井描述和样品分析测试等研究工作获得大量实测数据,深入研究分析断陷湖盆型油页岩的成矿特征,提出了评价区与解剖区可类比的14个成矿类比因子,建立了影响断陷湖盆油页岩成矿的多参数类比因子体系；并应用特征值及特征向量方法,定量计算出每个类比因子的相对权重。
统计分析5个断陷湖盆型油页岩解剖区的油页岩资源丰度和含油率,应用等频率法,建立断陷湖盆型油页岩的含油率概论分布函数和资源丰度概率分布函数；在此基础上,建立相似类比面积丰度法的资源预测数学模型,预测断陷湖盆型油页岩资源,并应用该方法预测茂名盆地油页岩资源得到很好的验证。
创立双因素油页岩含矿区开发优选方法,从地质资源因素和技术经济因素两个方面,将制约油页岩开发利用的因素划分为一系列递进的参数,运用层次分析法定量计算参数的权重；根据评价单元参数特征,分别计算地质资源因素和技术经济因素的得分,在区域中,从二维方向排序评价含矿区的优劣,规划优先开发的顺序,并应用该方法开展油页岩含矿区开发优选。
针对油页岩开采→干馏→发电→建材产业经济模式,对其经济效益进行经济评价,评价结果表明：高含油率、露天开采成本最低,低含油率、井巷开采成本最高；油页岩资源综合开发利用项目盈利稳定、盈利能力强,抗风险能力强,综合开发利用的经济效益高于炼油和发电。
As one of vital unconventional fossil resource, oil shale can be used to retort for shale oil. The semi-coke and gas that releases during the retort process can be utilized to generate electric power and the retorted ashes are good source for building materials, fertilizer and noble mental extraction. Thus, oil shale resource has great potential for comprehensive utilizations.
As an alternative of petroleum resource, oil shale receives more and more concerns in its study from the whole world, especially in the days that conventional fossil resources become increasingly limited. As China's increasing dependence on foreign oil, oil and gas resource supply situation is becoming increasingly severe. There is an urgent need to strengthen the survey and evaluation for strategic oil and gas resources.
A new round of "National Oil and Gas Resource Assessment" indicates that:in China, the oil shale resources equal 719.9 billion ton, converting to 47.6 billion ton of shale oil resources. They are among 20 provinces or autonomous regions and 47 basins. Thus a significant feature of Chinese oil shale resource is that they are plenty and distributed broadly, while the level of exploration and development for them is low. That severely requires the assistance of modern high-tech platform for multi-source geo-information analysis and synthesis, so that the exploration and development of oil shale resources can be conducted under scientific and rational manner and provides proper basis for our country to find back-up resource, to plan national economic development, and to conduct future geological work.
In China, a unified "Guide Book for Oil Shale Resources Exploration" has not been proposed. There is an urgent need to develop such a guide for large-scale oil shale resources exploration and development. In this thesis, on the basis of comprehensive analysis of papers and studies on the exploration norms and reserve classifications for solid mines, coal, peat, oil, the author proposes logical content of the stage division for oil shale resources exploration, the survey content in each stage, and relevant techniques, with the purpose to perform as references for the establishment of an official guide.
On the basis of study on field outcrops, profile measurement, drilling core observation and sample testing, and using principles and methods in sedimentology, sequences stratigraphy, mineral exploration science and ore deposits, this study analyzes systematically the mineralizing features of five fault-depressions (Fushun, Huadian, Luozigou, Jiaolai, Beibuwan) from the perspectives of ore forming, ore controlling and preservation. Then this study proposes 14 Mineralization Analogy Factors, establishes a multi-factor analogy system for controls of oil shale formation in fault-depressing lakes. And with the method of characteristic value and characteristic vector, relative weights of each factors has been calculated.
We statistically analyze oil shale resource abundance and oil shale yield of 5 rift lake-type anatomical areas. By application of the frequency method, we establish oil yield frequency distribution function and resource abundance probability function; On the basis, we establish resource prediction mathematical model of equivalently comparable resource abundance per square area method, and predict the oil shale resource in rift basins.
A case in Maoming Basin, using the method of similar abundance area analogy, is studied for the reliability of this method. The results is:when the probability is 65%, the amount of resource in Maoming Basin equals the "identified resources" in the first "National Oil Shale Resource Evaluation" project and when the probability is 50%, the amount of resource in Maoming Basin equals the "identified resources" plus the "predicted resources" in the first "National Oil Shale Resource Evaluation" project.
Through the study on controlling factors of oil shale resource development and utilization, the author divides those factors into two groups-geological resource and technical economy, and also proposes 22 parameters controlling the development and utilization for oil shale. The geological resource group includes:oil content, ash content, total sulfur content, thickness of major ore layers, reserve, resource abundance, associated usable minerals. The factors influencing extracting technique recover methods, hydrological engineering, engineering geological, environmental geological, complexity of geological, structures, stableness of ore body, depth of ore body. The factors influencing development includes:exploration status, transportation, water resource, electric power, geomorphic features, locations, environment impacts. By analytic hierarchy process, the 22 parameters are divided into Target Layer, Pointer Layer, Condition Layer, and Parameter Layer.
Under such a system, the qualities of assessing factors can be grouped as good, medium, shortness, with the names of Grade One, Grade Two and Grade Three. Their scores are 100-70,70-30,30-0.
The weights of these factors are determined by the methods of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. A two-factor based development optimization method has been proposed after the calculation of resource and technology parameters.
The author uses this two-factor based development optimization method to study 23 oil shale bearing mining areas through the whole country. And as a result, study indicates that there are 8 mining areas (e. g. Fushun) should be developed soon. And there are 9 mining areas (e. g. Dianbai) can be developed at a later time. There are 6 mining areas (e. g. Tongchuan) might be developed finally.
By visit, research and participating in seminars, the author gets an extensive collection of oil shale development and utilization and the relevant product market dynamics, then determines the relationship between investment and productivity, and proposes an economic model to carry out the development and utilization of oil shale resources in economic evaluation.
By static analysis of different methods of oil shale development and utilization projects, the critical point of the project profitable has been identified.For those mining projects for oil shale (oil content:5～10%) without comprehensive utilizations, when oil price is 2442RMB ($48/bbl), the opencast mining starts to make profits; when it is 4677RMB ($92/bbl), underground mining starts to make profits. For those mining projects for oil shale (oil content:5～10%) with comprehensive utilizations, when oil price is 1963RMB ($38/bbl), the opencast mining starts to make profits; when it is 4092RMB ($80/bbl), underground mining starts to make profits. For those mining projects for oil shale (oil content:>10%) with comprehensive utilizations, when oil price is 1601RMB ($30/bbl), the opencast mining starts to make profits; when it is 2666RMB ($52/bbl), underground mining starts to make profits.
In this study, the dynamic economic evaluation focusing on the mining→retorting→power generating→building materials industry indicates that the comprehensive utilization projects for oil shale are stably and well profitable, and strongly risk-resisting.
论文采用沉积学、层序地层学、矿产勘查学、矿床学、经济学和管理学等多学科研究方法,开展油页岩资源潜力评价、开发优选方法和经济评价研究。
通过野外露头观测、实测剖面、钻井描述和样品分析测试等研究工作获得大量实测数据,深入研究分析断陷湖盆型油页岩的成矿特征,提出了评价区与解剖区可类比的14个成矿类比因子,建立了影响断陷湖盆油页岩成矿的多参数类比因子体系；并应用特征值及特征向量方法,定量计算出每个类比因子的相对权重。
统计分析5个断陷湖盆型油页岩解剖区的油页岩资源丰度和含油率,应用等频率法,建立断陷湖盆型油页岩的含油率概论分布函数和资源丰度概率分布函数；在此基础上,建立相似类比面积丰度法的资源预测数学模型,预测断陷湖盆型油页岩资源,并应用该方法预测茂名盆地油页岩资源得到很好的验证。
创立双因素油页岩含矿区开发优选方法,从地质资源因素和技术经济因素两个方面,将制约油页岩开发利用的因素划分为一系列递进的参数,运用层次分析法定量计算参数的权重；根据评价单元参数特征,分别计算地质资源因素和技术经济因素的得分,在区域中,从二维方向排序评价含矿区的优劣,规划优先开发的顺序,并应用该方法开展油页岩含矿区开发优选。
针对油页岩开采→干馏→发电→建材产业经济模式,对其经济效益进行经济评价,评价结果表明：高含油率、露天开采成本最低,低含油率、井巷开采成本最高；油页岩资源综合开发利用项目盈利稳定、盈利能力强,抗风险能力强,综合开发利用的经济效益高于炼油和发电。
As one of vital unconventional fossil resource, oil shale can be used to retort for shale oil. The semi-coke and gas that releases during the retort process can be utilized to generate electric power and the retorted ashes are good source for building materials, fertilizer and noble mental extraction. Thus, oil shale resource has great potential for comprehensive utilizations.
As an alternative of petroleum resource, oil shale receives more and more concerns in its study from the whole world, especially in the days that conventional fossil resources become increasingly limited. As China's increasing dependence on foreign oil, oil and gas resource supply situation is becoming increasingly severe. There is an urgent need to strengthen the survey and evaluation for strategic oil and gas resources.
A new round of "National Oil and Gas Resource Assessment" indicates that:in China, the oil shale resources equal 719.9 billion ton, converting to 47.6 billion ton of shale oil resources. They are among 20 provinces or autonomous regions and 47 basins. Thus a significant feature of Chinese oil shale resource is that they are plenty and distributed broadly, while the level of exploration and development for them is low. That severely requires the assistance of modern high-tech platform for multi-source geo-information analysis and synthesis, so that the exploration and development of oil shale resources can be conducted under scientific and rational manner and provides proper basis for our country to find back-up resource, to plan national economic development, and to conduct future geological work.
In China, a unified "Guide Book for Oil Shale Resources Exploration" has not been proposed. There is an urgent need to develop such a guide for large-scale oil shale resources exploration and development. In this thesis, on the basis of comprehensive analysis of papers and studies on the exploration norms and reserve classifications for solid mines, coal, peat, oil, the author proposes logical content of the stage division for oil shale resources exploration, the survey content in each stage, and relevant techniques, with the purpose to perform as references for the establishment of an official guide.
On the basis of study on field outcrops, profile measurement, drilling core observation and sample testing, and using principles and methods in sedimentology, sequences stratigraphy, mineral exploration science and ore deposits, this study analyzes systematically the mineralizing features of five fault-depressions (Fushun, Huadian, Luozigou, Jiaolai, Beibuwan) from the perspectives of ore forming, ore controlling and preservation. Then this study proposes 14 Mineralization Analogy Factors, establishes a multi-factor analogy system for controls of oil shale formation in fault-depressing lakes. And with the method of characteristic value and characteristic vector, relative weights of each factors has been calculated.
We statistically analyze oil shale resource abundance and oil shale yield of 5 rift lake-type anatomical areas. By application of the frequency method, we establish oil yield frequency distribution function and resource abundance probability function; On the basis, we establish resource prediction mathematical model of equivalently comparable resource abundance per square area method, and predict the oil shale resource in rift basins.
A case in Maoming Basin, using the method of similar abundance area analogy, is studied for the reliability of this method. The results is:when the probability is 65%, the amount of resource in Maoming Basin equals the "identified resources" in the first "National Oil Shale Resource Evaluation" project and when the probability is 50%, the amount of resource in Maoming Basin equals the "identified resources" plus the "predicted resources" in the first "National Oil Shale Resource Evaluation" project.
Through the study on controlling factors of oil shale resource development and utilization, the author divides those factors into two groups-geological resource and technical economy, and also proposes 22 parameters controlling the development and utilization for oil shale. The geological resource group includes:oil content, ash content, total sulfur content, thickness of major ore layers, reserve, resource abundance, associated usable minerals. The factors influencing extracting technique recover methods, hydrological engineering, engineering geological, environmental geological, complexity of geological, structures, stableness of ore body, depth of ore body. The factors influencing development includes:exploration status, transportation, water resource, electric power, geomorphic features, locations, environment impacts. By analytic hierarchy process, the 22 parameters are divided into Target Layer, Pointer Layer, Condition Layer, and Parameter Layer.
Under such a system, the qualities of assessing factors can be grouped as good, medium, shortness, with the names of Grade One, Grade Two and Grade Three. Their scores are 100-70,70-30,30-0.
The weights of these factors are determined by the methods of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. A two-factor based development optimization method has been proposed after the calculation of resource and technology parameters.
The author uses this two-factor based development optimization method to study 23 oil shale bearing mining areas through the whole country. And as a result, study indicates that there are 8 mining areas (e. g. Fushun) should be developed soon. And there are 9 mining areas (e. g. Dianbai) can be developed at a later time. There are 6 mining areas (e. g. Tongchuan) might be developed finally.
By visit, research and participating in seminars, the author gets an extensive collection of oil shale development and utilization and the relevant product market dynamics, then determines the relationship between investment and productivity, and proposes an economic model to carry out the development and utilization of oil shale resources in economic evaluation.
By static analysis of different methods of oil shale development and utilization projects, the critical point of the project profitable has been identified.For those mining projects for oil shale (oil content:5～10%) without comprehensive utilizations, when oil price is 2442RMB ($48/bbl), the opencast mining starts to make profits; when it is 4677RMB ($92/bbl), underground mining starts to make profits. For those mining projects for oil shale (oil content:5～10%) with comprehensive utilizations, when oil price is 1963RMB ($38/bbl), the opencast mining starts to make profits; when it is 4092RMB ($80/bbl), underground mining starts to make profits. For those mining projects for oil shale (oil content:>10%) with comprehensive utilizations, when oil price is 1601RMB ($30/bbl), the opencast mining starts to make profits; when it is 2666RMB ($52/bbl), underground mining starts to make profits.
In this study, the dynamic economic evaluation focusing on the mining→retorting→power generating→building materials industry indicates that the comprehensive utilization projects for oil shale are stably and well profitable, and strongly risk-resisting.
引文
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