省域COD排放总量预测及减排潜力与对策研究
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摘要
水环境严重污染和水资源日益短缺,是导致区域生态环境日趋恶化,制约区域经济社会发展速度,影响经济社会发展质量的敏感因素。“十一五”期间,我国将水污染物总量控制纳入各省、自治区(直辖市)经济社会发展规划纲要的约束性指标。因此,定量预测省域COD排放量,挖掘COD减排潜力,寻求COD减排对策,显得尤为迫切和必要。本研究运用环境学、经济学、统计学等学科知识,采用定量和定性相结合,理论研究和实证研究相结合的研究方法,引入学习曲线和减排潜力概念,对省域COD排放总量进行定量预测,构建COD减排潜力模型,并提出具体的减排对策。主要研究成果如下:
(1)界定了COD减排相关概念、本质和内涵;从经济学角度,系统分析COD减排的支撑理论,归纳总结COD减排政策的支撑作用。明确了“工程减排是基本手段,结构减排是根本途径,管理减排是总抓手,科技减排是基础支撑”的基本认识。
(2)建立了省域COD排放量定量预测方法。利用河北省基础参数,对河北省“十一五”COD排放总量指标完成情况进行可达性分析,在验证预测方法的基础上,对河北省2009-2015年COD排放总量进行了定量预测。
(3)系统分析了COD减排关键途径。以河北省为例,定量分析治污工程减排、产业结构调整减排和环境管理减排三种途径的减排绩效和成本,从经济、技术及管理层面系统揭示了各种减排途径优劣及应用条件。
(4)深入分析了河北省经济结构和社会发展对COD持续减排的关键制约因素。结合河北省COD减排目标与地表水环境功能,按照技术经济可达的原则,对河北省COD面临的压力进行了全面剖析。
(5)科学界定了COD减排潜力的概念,基于排水体制及排放去向构建了省域COD减排潜力模型。以减排目标为约束条件,定量计算和分析了COD减排潜力的不同情境,明确了优先挖掘的减排潜力;提出了挖掘潜力的具体措施,并论证其技术经济可行性,为区域减排提供决策依据。
(6)重点研究了排污权交易制度和COD减排投融资对策。提出了基于“京都灵活机制”的排污权交易运作方式,为省域开展交易试点提供了依据。
论文主要创新点:引入COD排放环境学习曲线和COD减排潜力概念,建立了省域COD排放总量定量预测方法和COD减排潜力定量预测数学模型。
本研究不仅有重要的理论意义,而且对改善水环境质量,促进经济社会健康发展具有重要现实意义。
The serious water pollution and water resources shortages which leaded to the deterioration of regional ecological environment seriously affected the quality of social and economic development, but also constrained the speed of regional socio-economic development. To achieve the coordinated development of the resources, the environment and the economy, it was urgent and necessary to analyze the pressure and the factors associated with the regional COD reduction, to predict the total discharge of COD, tap the potential of COD emission reduction and seek the measures of COD reduction. With the application of environmental science, economics and statistics, this paper predicted the total discharge of the regional COD, constructed the COD reduction potential model and proposed the specific countermeasurement by using quantitative and qualitative analysis, normative and empirical research. The major results are as follows:
(1) It scientifically defined in theory the concepts, nature and content associated with COD reduction. In the perspective of environmental economics, it systematically analysis the basic theory for COD reduction, comprehensively expounded the supporting role of COD emission reduction policies, and explicated the basic cognition of“emission reduction projects are the basic means, structural emission reduction is the fundamental way, the management of emission reduction is the key, while the emission reduction technologies are the elemental support".
(2) With the application of the learning curve theory, it set up the provincial COD emissions quantitative predicting methods; based on the parameters of Hebei Province, it analysis the reachablity of the completion of the COD emission targets for the eleventh five-year planning period in Hebei Province; based on the verification predicting method, it quantatively predicted the total COD emission amount in the period of 2009—2015 in Hebei Province.
(3) It fully and systematically analyzed the key paths to reduction of COD total emission amount, quantitatively analysis the emission reduction performances and control costs of the three ways; from the economic, technical and management aspects, it demonstrated the advantages and disadvantages and applying conditions of each emission reduction way.
(4) It analysis in-depth the key restraining factors of the economic structure and social development in Heber to COD steady reduction. It expounded fully the pressures of COD reduction which Hebei faces in line with Hebei emission reduction targets and the environmental function of the surface water required by the state, and in accordance with the principle of technical and economic reachablility.
(5) It scientifically and reasonably defined the concept of COD emission reduction potential, and establishes the provincial COD emission reduction model in accordance to the relevant theories. On the basis of the systematic analysis on the present emission situation and predicted emission amount of the industrial and domestic emissions of COD in Hebei Province, with emission targets as the restraining condition, it quantatively calculated COD reduction potential under various circumstances, specified the reduction potential to be tapped as priorities, put forward the concrete measures for potential tapping, demonstrated its technical and economic feasibility, and provided a decision-making basis for the regional emission reduction work.
(6) It systematically studied the countermeasures for COD reduction at provincial level, with emphasis on emission trading system and investing and financing countermeasures for COD emission reduction. It analysis the basic conditions for the implementation of COD emission trading, proposes the operating style for emission trading based on the "Kyoto flexible mechanisms", and provided a basis for the try-outs of the emission trading at the provincial level.
The initiatives of the paper: it established a theoretical and policy system for COD reduction, introduced COD emission learning curve and COD emission reduction potential concept, sets up the quantitative predicting methods for provincial COD total emission amount and the quantitative predicting arithmetic model for COD reduction potential, and realized for the first time to quantify the total emission amount and reduction potential of COD at the provincial level.
Not only does this study have important theoretical significance, but also have practical significance to improve the quality of water environment and promote the healthy economic and social development.
(1)界定了COD减排相关概念、本质和内涵;从经济学角度,系统分析COD减排的支撑理论,归纳总结COD减排政策的支撑作用。明确了“工程减排是基本手段,结构减排是根本途径,管理减排是总抓手,科技减排是基础支撑”的基本认识。
(2)建立了省域COD排放量定量预测方法。利用河北省基础参数,对河北省“十一五”COD排放总量指标完成情况进行可达性分析,在验证预测方法的基础上,对河北省2009-2015年COD排放总量进行了定量预测。
(3)系统分析了COD减排关键途径。以河北省为例,定量分析治污工程减排、产业结构调整减排和环境管理减排三种途径的减排绩效和成本,从经济、技术及管理层面系统揭示了各种减排途径优劣及应用条件。
(4)深入分析了河北省经济结构和社会发展对COD持续减排的关键制约因素。结合河北省COD减排目标与地表水环境功能,按照技术经济可达的原则,对河北省COD面临的压力进行了全面剖析。
(5)科学界定了COD减排潜力的概念,基于排水体制及排放去向构建了省域COD减排潜力模型。以减排目标为约束条件,定量计算和分析了COD减排潜力的不同情境,明确了优先挖掘的减排潜力;提出了挖掘潜力的具体措施,并论证其技术经济可行性,为区域减排提供决策依据。
(6)重点研究了排污权交易制度和COD减排投融资对策。提出了基于“京都灵活机制”的排污权交易运作方式,为省域开展交易试点提供了依据。
论文主要创新点:引入COD排放环境学习曲线和COD减排潜力概念,建立了省域COD排放总量定量预测方法和COD减排潜力定量预测数学模型。
本研究不仅有重要的理论意义,而且对改善水环境质量,促进经济社会健康发展具有重要现实意义。
The serious water pollution and water resources shortages which leaded to the deterioration of regional ecological environment seriously affected the quality of social and economic development, but also constrained the speed of regional socio-economic development. To achieve the coordinated development of the resources, the environment and the economy, it was urgent and necessary to analyze the pressure and the factors associated with the regional COD reduction, to predict the total discharge of COD, tap the potential of COD emission reduction and seek the measures of COD reduction. With the application of environmental science, economics and statistics, this paper predicted the total discharge of the regional COD, constructed the COD reduction potential model and proposed the specific countermeasurement by using quantitative and qualitative analysis, normative and empirical research. The major results are as follows:
(1) It scientifically defined in theory the concepts, nature and content associated with COD reduction. In the perspective of environmental economics, it systematically analysis the basic theory for COD reduction, comprehensively expounded the supporting role of COD emission reduction policies, and explicated the basic cognition of“emission reduction projects are the basic means, structural emission reduction is the fundamental way, the management of emission reduction is the key, while the emission reduction technologies are the elemental support".
(2) With the application of the learning curve theory, it set up the provincial COD emissions quantitative predicting methods; based on the parameters of Hebei Province, it analysis the reachablity of the completion of the COD emission targets for the eleventh five-year planning period in Hebei Province; based on the verification predicting method, it quantatively predicted the total COD emission amount in the period of 2009—2015 in Hebei Province.
(3) It fully and systematically analyzed the key paths to reduction of COD total emission amount, quantitatively analysis the emission reduction performances and control costs of the three ways; from the economic, technical and management aspects, it demonstrated the advantages and disadvantages and applying conditions of each emission reduction way.
(4) It analysis in-depth the key restraining factors of the economic structure and social development in Heber to COD steady reduction. It expounded fully the pressures of COD reduction which Hebei faces in line with Hebei emission reduction targets and the environmental function of the surface water required by the state, and in accordance with the principle of technical and economic reachablility.
(5) It scientifically and reasonably defined the concept of COD emission reduction potential, and establishes the provincial COD emission reduction model in accordance to the relevant theories. On the basis of the systematic analysis on the present emission situation and predicted emission amount of the industrial and domestic emissions of COD in Hebei Province, with emission targets as the restraining condition, it quantatively calculated COD reduction potential under various circumstances, specified the reduction potential to be tapped as priorities, put forward the concrete measures for potential tapping, demonstrated its technical and economic feasibility, and provided a decision-making basis for the regional emission reduction work.
(6) It systematically studied the countermeasures for COD reduction at provincial level, with emphasis on emission trading system and investing and financing countermeasures for COD emission reduction. It analysis the basic conditions for the implementation of COD emission trading, proposes the operating style for emission trading based on the "Kyoto flexible mechanisms", and provided a basis for the try-outs of the emission trading at the provincial level.
The initiatives of the paper: it established a theoretical and policy system for COD reduction, introduced COD emission learning curve and COD emission reduction potential concept, sets up the quantitative predicting methods for provincial COD total emission amount and the quantitative predicting arithmetic model for COD reduction potential, and realized for the first time to quantify the total emission amount and reduction potential of COD at the provincial level.
Not only does this study have important theoretical significance, but also have practical significance to improve the quality of water environment and promote the healthy economic and social development.
引文
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