资产选择、房地产价格波动与金融稳定
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摘要
自20世纪80年代以来,通货膨胀得到有效控制的同时,各国资产价格波动日益加剧,中央银行的货币政策面临新的挑战。与低通货膨胀相伴随的是各国资产价格出现了剧烈的波动,在资产价格泡沫膨胀与崩溃的循环中,频繁暴发的金融危机导致了宏观经济的不稳定。资产价格波动及其所带来的金融风险,已经成为各国央行的主要“敌人”。因为人们发现,资产价格的剧烈波动将导致经济的泡沫化,同时也隐藏着巨大的金融风险,资产价格泡沫的突然破裂对宏观经济所造成的冲击比通货膨胀更加猛烈。各国中央银行已经意识到资产价格对货币政策的影响。对于资产价格波动和货币政策的关系,近些年来引起了各国中央银行十分广泛的关注。在此背景下,越来越多的学者开始探讨资产价格与金融稳定、货币政策之间的关系。
本文认为,在当今的货币经济环境下,金融危机均是来自于银行系统的危机,银行危机的主要原因是由于银行信贷的过渡发放以及信贷资产质量的严重恶化,而银行信贷的过渡供给和信贷资产质量的迅速恶化主要是源于居民家庭的资产选择行为。追求财富最大化的居民资产选择行为不断造成资产价格的反复膨胀和崩溃,从而导致金融波动的不断产生和由此导致的宏观经济的大幅波动。
在居民选择的诸多资产当中,房地产与股票等其他资产不同,它既是消费品又是投资品。居民在进行资产选择时,只有购买房地产能够获得银行的信贷支持,所以房地产投资与银行信贷的供求直接相关。居民的资产选择行为取决于人们的预期,当预期房地产价格上升时,家庭将大量购买房地产资产,引起房地产价格的膨胀和银行信贷的扩张,并通过两者之间的正反馈机制,最终形成房地产泡沫。一旦遇到外部冲击,房地产泡沫就将突然破裂,同时引发金融危机。因此,对资产价格的预期决定家庭的资产选择,家庭的资产选择行为是资产价格泡沫和金融体系以及宏观经济不稳定的微观基础。
因此,本文主张,货币政策要关注资产价格的波动,尤其是要关注房地产价格的波动。由于资产价格的大幅波动最终将严重导致金融系统和宏观经济的大幅波动,中央银行应该采取前瞻性的、先发制人的货币政策;同时,由于单纯的货币政策对于治理资产价格的膨胀具有严重的时滞,所以,央行在实施货币政策的同时,还应辅之以更有针对性的其他宏观金融政策或措施,正确引导和控制居民的资产选择行为。只有这样,才能有效避免资产价格泡沫的产生和破灭,防范金融风险,确保宏观经济的稳定运行。
Since 1980s, inflation has been effectively controlled. However, asset prices of various countries fluctuate severely. It becomes a new challenge for monetary policy of central banks. In the cycle of expansion and collapse of asste prices bubble, frequent financial crisis leads to instability of macro economy. The fluctuation of asset prices and its financial risks have become the main "enemy"of central banks. It is found that the violent fluctuation of asset prices will lead to economy bubbling and hidden financial risks. Meanwhile, the burst of asset prices bubble will impact macro economy more fierce than inflation. Central banks of various countries have realized the effect of asset prices on monetary policy. In recent years, the relationship between asset prices fluctuation and monetary policy have aroused extensive attention of central banks of various countries. Under this background, more and more scholars begin to study the relationship between asset prices, financial stability and monetary policy.
The dissertation holds that, in the situation of monetary economy, financial crisis comes from bank system crisis. The main reason of bank crisis is the excess of loan launch and the deterioration of credit assets quality which are caused by households' assets selection. Houholds' assets selection which aims at the maximization of wealth causes frequent inflation and collapse of assets prices and leads to financial fluctuation and thus the fluctuation of macro economy.
Among kinds of assets selected by households, real estate is different from other assets such as stock because real estate is both consumer goods and investment goods. When selecting asstes, households can obtain bank's loan support by buying real estate. Therefore, the investment of real estate is directly related to the demand and supply of bank's credit. Households' asset selection depends on people's expectation. When the expected price of real estate rises, households will buy lots of assets of real estate which will cause the inflation of real estate price and the expansion of bank credit. This will, through positive feedback mechanism, form real estate bubble. Once encountering exterior impulsion, real estate bubble will burst and cause financial crisis. Therefore, the expectation of asset prices decides households' assets selection and the households' assets selection is the micro foundation of asset prices bubble and instability of financial system and macro economy.
Therefore, the dissertation holds that the monetary policy should pay attention to the fluctuatuion of asset prices, especially the fluctuation of real estate prices. Since the violent fluctuation of asset prices will lead to severe fluctuation of financial system and macro economy, central banks should adopt forward-looking monetary policy. In addition, Since single monetary policy has time lag when reglating the inflation of asset prices, central banks should take some other macro financial policy as assist measures and correctly direct and control households' asset selection. This can effectively avoid the asset prices bubble, guard against financial risks and ensure the steady operation of macro economy.
本文认为,在当今的货币经济环境下,金融危机均是来自于银行系统的危机,银行危机的主要原因是由于银行信贷的过渡发放以及信贷资产质量的严重恶化,而银行信贷的过渡供给和信贷资产质量的迅速恶化主要是源于居民家庭的资产选择行为。追求财富最大化的居民资产选择行为不断造成资产价格的反复膨胀和崩溃,从而导致金融波动的不断产生和由此导致的宏观经济的大幅波动。
在居民选择的诸多资产当中,房地产与股票等其他资产不同,它既是消费品又是投资品。居民在进行资产选择时,只有购买房地产能够获得银行的信贷支持,所以房地产投资与银行信贷的供求直接相关。居民的资产选择行为取决于人们的预期,当预期房地产价格上升时,家庭将大量购买房地产资产,引起房地产价格的膨胀和银行信贷的扩张,并通过两者之间的正反馈机制,最终形成房地产泡沫。一旦遇到外部冲击,房地产泡沫就将突然破裂,同时引发金融危机。因此,对资产价格的预期决定家庭的资产选择,家庭的资产选择行为是资产价格泡沫和金融体系以及宏观经济不稳定的微观基础。
因此,本文主张,货币政策要关注资产价格的波动,尤其是要关注房地产价格的波动。由于资产价格的大幅波动最终将严重导致金融系统和宏观经济的大幅波动,中央银行应该采取前瞻性的、先发制人的货币政策;同时,由于单纯的货币政策对于治理资产价格的膨胀具有严重的时滞,所以,央行在实施货币政策的同时,还应辅之以更有针对性的其他宏观金融政策或措施,正确引导和控制居民的资产选择行为。只有这样,才能有效避免资产价格泡沫的产生和破灭,防范金融风险,确保宏观经济的稳定运行。
Since 1980s, inflation has been effectively controlled. However, asset prices of various countries fluctuate severely. It becomes a new challenge for monetary policy of central banks. In the cycle of expansion and collapse of asste prices bubble, frequent financial crisis leads to instability of macro economy. The fluctuation of asset prices and its financial risks have become the main "enemy"of central banks. It is found that the violent fluctuation of asset prices will lead to economy bubbling and hidden financial risks. Meanwhile, the burst of asset prices bubble will impact macro economy more fierce than inflation. Central banks of various countries have realized the effect of asset prices on monetary policy. In recent years, the relationship between asset prices fluctuation and monetary policy have aroused extensive attention of central banks of various countries. Under this background, more and more scholars begin to study the relationship between asset prices, financial stability and monetary policy.
The dissertation holds that, in the situation of monetary economy, financial crisis comes from bank system crisis. The main reason of bank crisis is the excess of loan launch and the deterioration of credit assets quality which are caused by households' assets selection. Houholds' assets selection which aims at the maximization of wealth causes frequent inflation and collapse of assets prices and leads to financial fluctuation and thus the fluctuation of macro economy.
Among kinds of assets selected by households, real estate is different from other assets such as stock because real estate is both consumer goods and investment goods. When selecting asstes, households can obtain bank's loan support by buying real estate. Therefore, the investment of real estate is directly related to the demand and supply of bank's credit. Households' asset selection depends on people's expectation. When the expected price of real estate rises, households will buy lots of assets of real estate which will cause the inflation of real estate price and the expansion of bank credit. This will, through positive feedback mechanism, form real estate bubble. Once encountering exterior impulsion, real estate bubble will burst and cause financial crisis. Therefore, the expectation of asset prices decides households' assets selection and the households' assets selection is the micro foundation of asset prices bubble and instability of financial system and macro economy.
Therefore, the dissertation holds that the monetary policy should pay attention to the fluctuatuion of asset prices, especially the fluctuation of real estate prices. Since the violent fluctuation of asset prices will lead to severe fluctuation of financial system and macro economy, central banks should adopt forward-looking monetary policy. In addition, Since single monetary policy has time lag when reglating the inflation of asset prices, central banks should take some other macro financial policy as assist measures and correctly direct and control households' asset selection. This can effectively avoid the asset prices bubble, guard against financial risks and ensure the steady operation of macro economy.
引文
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