新经济地理学视角下的产业集聚机制研究
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摘要
本文致力于在两个方面做出贡献:一是在理论层面上试图借助于新经济地理学的基本假定——垄断竞争和规模收益递增——构建起产业集聚机制的研究框架,并总结、提炼出一个简单明了、高度概括、同时包含时间和空间维度、适用于解释各种产业集聚现象的一般性的产业集聚机制理论;二是在应用层面上利用该产业集聚机制理论解释我国改革开放以来特别是近十多年来区域经济差异的基本格局——东部沿海地区快速发展而中西部内陆明显滞后(“东部隆起”)并且从1997年以后广义上的中部的经济增长既慢于东部又慢于西部(“中部塌陷”),这种解释现实的过程也正是用现实验证产业集聚机制理论的过程。
本文把“产业”的概念在界定上从制造业或工业、第二产业推广到包含服务业或第三产业在内的整个非农产业。“产业集聚”的含义既包括产业通过转移而在空间上集中也包括产业在各种区位上的自生生长,或者说,只要一个地区的产业份额提高,我们就认为那里发生了产业集聚。本文强调“集聚”的对立面是“分散”,两者都具有动态和静态的双重含义,又具有辩证的统一性,不可孤立看待。
“产业”的概念不限于工业或制造业,“产业集聚”与自然资源、区位因素、产业上的关联、专业化技能的储备、技术溢出、规模经济、收益递增、土地租金、土地利用、运输成本、市场区、创新、通勤成本、外部经济、市场潜力、分工、专业化、交易成本等诸多因素有着密切的联系。早期的不同学者对这些内容有着不同的认识,本文首先对此进行了文献综述,这些学者主要包括:新古典经济学的集大成者马歇尔和德国古典区位理论的几位重要代表人物及其后直到新经济地理学问世前的各个学术流派的众多学者。迪克希特—斯蒂格利茨垄断竞争模型、新贸易理论、新经济地理学的问世逐渐为解释产业集聚现象提供了最重要的理论基础或基本假定——垄断竞争和规模收益递增,通过对此的进一步综述,本文关于产业集聚机制的基本研究框架得以确立。
然后,本文基于文献综述及经济学基本理论归纳了影响产业集聚与分散的四类基本因素:规模经济、消费偏好、空间成本、心理预期,分析了它们各自的影响,并指出劳动分工所推动的技术进步、制度进步在某种程度上也可以单独列为基本因素。接着,本文重点立足于新经济地理学的众多模型展开分析并发现和阐明所有模型中的产业(工业)集聚机制都可以归结为动态的具有循环累积性质的因果关系,它们分别源自于如下一系列效应:市场接近效应、生活成本效应、生产成本效应、共享效应、匹配效应、学习效应或溢出效应。现实中的产业集聚机制是上述各种效应引起的能够自我加强并相互促进的循环累积因果关系或集聚力的交织。但是,产业集聚机制也会受到土地在空间上不能移动、空间成本(包括运输成本、贸易成本和拥挤成本)、市场拥挤效应(市场竞争效应)和某些心理预期因素引起的分散力的抑制。技术和制度进步从而贸易自由度的提高(运输和贸易成本的降低)有利于集聚力克服分散力从而促进产业集聚,更好地实现生产和消费的规模经济,这是一个长期的动态过程。在短期中,集聚力克服分散力存在着由贸易自由度决定的临界状态,贸易自由度在临界状态附近的提高会引发产业集聚的突发性发生,因而产业集聚的发生在历史进程中表现出阶段性、梯次性或轮动性特征,倾向于在短期内扩大区际经济差异,其实现渠道是区际贸易的市场挤占效应。在上述论证过程中,本文还通过引入空间维度进一步完善了斯密定理和杨格定理。
本文在理论上还提出:尽管产业集聚机制本身是一种内在于经济系统的正反馈效应,但它一般性地基于区位或经济地理因素、偶然因素的影响及其历史性积累、政策变动、心理预期等外在条件而起作用;产业集聚机制具有穿越时空的存在性和适用性,随着时间的推移从而技术和制度的进步或贸易自由度的提高,产业集聚机制影响所及的最大空间层面或范围不断扩大,在现代的信息化、全球化时代已扩展至全球层面,产业集聚机制在各种空间层面上广泛存在且交叠嵌套,主导着各种空间层面上的产业集聚,产业集聚机制的强度总体上随着时间的延续而增强,随着空间距离的扩展而减弱,现代条件下产业集聚现象的显著发生要以自由的市场经济制度为前提。
接着,基于分省数据及相关文献对劳动力、资本、狭义的自然资源三大类生产要素的流动及其与经济变动、非农产业集聚程度相关性的统计性、描述性分析和计量检验,本文论证了改革开放后特别是近十多年来我国区域经济差异的基本格局即“东部隆起”和“中部塌陷”现象在表面上是非农产业在跨省或全国这个空间层面上分布越来越不平衡的结果,也就是非农产业在全国范围这个大空间尺度上形成集聚趋势的结果,进一步的剖析发现:“东部隆起”是东部沿海的区位优势、政策优势和产业集聚的循环累积因果机制三大类因素(也可以称为经济地理因素、政策因素和新经济地理因素)共同作用的结果,体现为一个较长时期的过程;随着“东部隆起”过程中产业集聚的循环累积因果机制增强,东部沿海对中、西部内陆的影响越来越大,中、西部内陆的大量生产要素在循环累积因果机制主导下加速流向东部,东部的产业越来越多地占领中、西部市场,中、西部自身的产业集聚总体上受到越来越大的负面影响;中部由于在地理空间上靠近东部,受到的负面影响更大,积累到一定程度后出现经济增长既慢于东部又慢于西部的“塌陷”局面;相应地,全国性区域经济差异的发展格局受到上述趋势的支配,西部大开发和振兴东北老工业基地战略对西部和东北确实起到了一定的促进作用,但总体上不能与产业集聚跨区域的循环累积因果机制的影响抗衡,西部大开发战略对最西部几个省份的积极作用更大,这是因为遥远的空间距离阻隔了生产要素的大规模流出,最西部省份的市场没有受到东部较大的冲击,西部的生产要素和本地市场对本地产业的发展起到了更好的支持作用。
此外,本文顺便讨论了引起广泛关注的“资源诅咒”现象,提出在不对区位因素进行综合考虑的条件下单从“资源诅咒”现象所显示的资源丰裕度与经济增长负相关性推论二者的因果关系在一定程度上是牵强的、狭隘的,指出能源、矿产资源丰裕的地区往往不具有交通运输方面的区位优势(例如临海)、水资源优势、适宜人口密集居住的气候等条件,因此资源丰裕地区的资源常常被其他区位所吸引而不是在资源所在地被投入生产形成大规模的产业集聚。中国学者针对中国的区域经济差异现象所认定的“资源诅咒”规律更多地可以由产业集聚的循环累积因果机制所解释。
最后,本文提出了旨在促进区域经济协调发展的政策建议,核心观点包括:推动区际贸易、深化区际分工、加强区际交流;消除城市(镇)化障碍,在各种区域层面上促进产业集聚;鼓励人口迁移和流动;降低空间成本;引导心理预期。对促进中、西部地区发展,特别是促进“中部崛起”,本文也提出了更具体的建议。
The dissertation focuses on two aspects. On a theoretical level, the dissertation tries to establish a research framework of the mechanism of industrial agglomeration by making use of monopolistic competition and increasing return, which are the basic assumption of new economic geography. The aim is to generalize a simple, clear and refined theory of the mechanism of industrial agglomeration, which involves dimensions both of time and space and can be used to explain all kinds of industrial agglomeration. On a practical level, by using the above theory of the mechanism of industrial agglomeration, the dissertation tries to explain the basic configuration of regional economic difference since china's reform and opening up especially during the the recent more than ten years- the eastern coastal region's economic growth being fast while the middle and western inland region being much slower (i.e., "the eastern region rising") and the economic growth of the generalized defined middle region being slower than not only the east region but also the west region after 1997(i.e., "the middle region sinking").
The definition of "industry" here is extended from manufacturing industry or secondary industry to non-agricultural industries including service industry or tertiary industry. The definition of "industrial agglomeration" has two meanings. One is that industry gathers spatially by transferring. The other is that industry develops inherently in all kinds of locations. In other words, we can conclude that once a region's industries share increase, there occurs industrial agglomeration. The dissertation stresses that "disperse" and "dispersion" are the opposite side of "agglomerate" and "agglomeration". The terminologies express their dynamic and static implications respectively. The opposite two sides are dialectical unity and can not be viewed static and isolated.
The concept of "industry" is not limited to manufacturing industry. "Industrial agglomeration" is closely relevant to natural resources, location factors, industrial linkages, thick market for specialized skills, technological spillover, scale economy, increasing return, land rent, land utilization, transport cost, market area, innovation, commuting cost, external economies, market potentiality, division of labour, specialization, trade cost etc. The dissertation gives a literature review on these aspects as different earlier economists are involved. Those earlier economists mainly include the great economist of Neo-classical economics Alfred Marshall, several important German representatives of classical location theory, and many others of different research mainstreams before the appearance of new economic geography. As Dixit-Stiglitz model of monopolistic competition, new trade theory and new economic geography being put forward, the important theoretical basis or basic assumptions of monopolistic competition and increasing return for explaining the phenomena of industrial agglomeration are well founded. Having summarized further, the basic research framework of the mechanism of industrial agglomeration is established.
Then, based on the literature review and basic economic theory, the dissertation divides the fundamental factors that affect industrial agglomeration and dispersion into four kinds: scale economy, consumer preference, spatial cost and expectation. The dissertation analyzes each factor independently and indicates that technological and institutional progress driven by labor division can also be thought as separate fundamental factors. The dissertation continues to analyze quite a number of models of new economic geography and illustrates that the mechanism of industrial agglomeration in all the models can be treated as some dynamic circular causality. The circular causality originates from a series of effects: the market access effect, the cost-of-living effect, the cost-of-production effect, sharing effect, matching effect, learning effect or spillover effect. The mechanism of industrial agglomeration in reality is an intertwining of all kinds of dynamic circular causality or agglomeration forces originated by these effects. While, the mechanism of industrial agglomeration is also restrained by dispersion forces originated by the following factors: the immobility of land, spatial cost (including transport cost, trade cost and crowding cost), market crowding effect and some expectations.
The increase of trade freeness caused by technological and institutional progress is in favor of agglomeration forces to conquer dispersion forces. This promotes industrial agglomeration and achieves scale economies of production and consumption better. It is a long-time dynamic process. In the short-run, there usually exists a critical condition about trade freeness which determines whether the agglomeration force can conquer dispersion force. The increase of trade freeness near a critical condition will lead to a catastrophic agglomeration. Therefore the occurrence of industrial agglomeration has the characteristic of having stages, which is inclined to widen the regional economic difference due to the market crowding-out effect of interregional trade. The paper also matures the Smith theorem and Yang theorem further by adding spatial dimension.
Theoretically, the dissertation also indicates that although the mechanism of industrial agglomeration itself is a positive feedback effect, it generally operates under the external conditions of location or economic geography factors, effects of accidental factors and its historical accumulation, policy changes, and expectations. The mechanism of industrial agglomeration exists despite of the change of time and space. As time goes by so that trade freeness caused by technological and institutional progress increases, the largest spatial level or scope the mechamsm of industrial agglomeration can affect enlarges. As time of the modern information and globalization occurs in the global level recently, the mechanism of industrial agglomeration exists and overlaps in different kinds of spatial levels, dominating industrial agglomerations in different spatial levels. The strength of industrial agglomeration will generally increase as time goes by, and decrease as distance of space extends. The notable phenomena of modern industrial agglomeration are based on the free market economic system.
Then, based on the data of different provinces and the relevant literatures, the dissertation gives statistical and descriptive analysis and has an econometric empirical test between the flow of labor, capital, narrowly defined natural resources and economic changes, the agglomeration degree of non-agriculture industry. The dissertation proves that the basic configuration of regional economic difference since china's reform and opening up especially during the recent more than ten years (i.e., "the eastern region rising" and "the middle region sinking") is superficially the result of lopsided distribution of non-agriculture industry in inter-provincial or national level. It is also the result of non-agriculture industry's agglomeration trends in national level. By further analysis, it is found that "the eastern region rising" is due to the interactions of three kinds of factors: location advantages, policy advantages and the circular causality mechanism of industrial agglomeration (also called factors of economic geography, policy and new economic geography). It is a long-time process. As the circular causality mechanism of industrial agglomeration strengthens during "the eastern region rising", the eastern coastal region strengthens its effect on the middle and western inlands more and more. Large amount of production factors in the middle and western inlands flow to eastern region faster and faster. The industries of the eastern region occupy the market in the middle and western regions more and more. The industrial agglomeration internally in the middle and western regions are negatively affected. The middle region is more negatively affected because of its spatial proximity to the eastern coastal region. Accumulated to a certain extent, the economic growth rate of the middle region becomes lower than both the eastern and western regions (i.e., "the middle region sinking"). Correspondingly, the basic configuration of regional economic difference is dominated by the above trend. The strategies of western development and the revitalization of old industrial bases in northeastern do have their promoting effects but can not balance the negative effects caused by the mechanism of interregional industrial agglomeration. The strategy of western development has more positive effects on some most western provinces because far distance stops the large-scale production factors flow out to the eastern region. The market of some most western provinces has not suffered shocking occupying and the production factors together with local market there support the development of local industry better.
The dissertation incidentally discusses the broadly concerned phenomenon of "resource curse". It indicates that without considering the location factors comprehensively, the causality will be farfetched and narrow-minded if only it is inferred by economists from the negative correlation between resource richness and economic growth displayed by the phenomenon of "resource curse". It also indicates that the regions with abundant energy resources and mineral resources usually do not have location advantages (e.g., near coast), abundant water resources, suitable climate for densely populated. So resources are often attracted by other regions different from their original regions while not put into production locally to form large-scale industrial agglomeration. The Chinese researchers' identification of the law of "resource curse", which is tightly related to Chinese regional economic difference, can be largely explained by the circular causality mechanism of industrial agglomeration.
Lastly, the dissertation provides policy suggestions for promoting harmonious development of regional economy. The core viewpoints include promoting interregional trade, deepening interregional labour division, strengthening interregional exchanges, eliminating obstacles of urbanization, promoting industrial agglomerations in all the regional or spatial levels, encouraging migration and population flow, reducing spatial cost, and guiding expectations. The dissertation also provides more concrete suggestions for promoting the development of the middle and western regions especially "the middle region rising".
本文把“产业”的概念在界定上从制造业或工业、第二产业推广到包含服务业或第三产业在内的整个非农产业。“产业集聚”的含义既包括产业通过转移而在空间上集中也包括产业在各种区位上的自生生长,或者说,只要一个地区的产业份额提高,我们就认为那里发生了产业集聚。本文强调“集聚”的对立面是“分散”,两者都具有动态和静态的双重含义,又具有辩证的统一性,不可孤立看待。
“产业”的概念不限于工业或制造业,“产业集聚”与自然资源、区位因素、产业上的关联、专业化技能的储备、技术溢出、规模经济、收益递增、土地租金、土地利用、运输成本、市场区、创新、通勤成本、外部经济、市场潜力、分工、专业化、交易成本等诸多因素有着密切的联系。早期的不同学者对这些内容有着不同的认识,本文首先对此进行了文献综述,这些学者主要包括:新古典经济学的集大成者马歇尔和德国古典区位理论的几位重要代表人物及其后直到新经济地理学问世前的各个学术流派的众多学者。迪克希特—斯蒂格利茨垄断竞争模型、新贸易理论、新经济地理学的问世逐渐为解释产业集聚现象提供了最重要的理论基础或基本假定——垄断竞争和规模收益递增,通过对此的进一步综述,本文关于产业集聚机制的基本研究框架得以确立。
然后,本文基于文献综述及经济学基本理论归纳了影响产业集聚与分散的四类基本因素:规模经济、消费偏好、空间成本、心理预期,分析了它们各自的影响,并指出劳动分工所推动的技术进步、制度进步在某种程度上也可以单独列为基本因素。接着,本文重点立足于新经济地理学的众多模型展开分析并发现和阐明所有模型中的产业(工业)集聚机制都可以归结为动态的具有循环累积性质的因果关系,它们分别源自于如下一系列效应:市场接近效应、生活成本效应、生产成本效应、共享效应、匹配效应、学习效应或溢出效应。现实中的产业集聚机制是上述各种效应引起的能够自我加强并相互促进的循环累积因果关系或集聚力的交织。但是,产业集聚机制也会受到土地在空间上不能移动、空间成本(包括运输成本、贸易成本和拥挤成本)、市场拥挤效应(市场竞争效应)和某些心理预期因素引起的分散力的抑制。技术和制度进步从而贸易自由度的提高(运输和贸易成本的降低)有利于集聚力克服分散力从而促进产业集聚,更好地实现生产和消费的规模经济,这是一个长期的动态过程。在短期中,集聚力克服分散力存在着由贸易自由度决定的临界状态,贸易自由度在临界状态附近的提高会引发产业集聚的突发性发生,因而产业集聚的发生在历史进程中表现出阶段性、梯次性或轮动性特征,倾向于在短期内扩大区际经济差异,其实现渠道是区际贸易的市场挤占效应。在上述论证过程中,本文还通过引入空间维度进一步完善了斯密定理和杨格定理。
本文在理论上还提出:尽管产业集聚机制本身是一种内在于经济系统的正反馈效应,但它一般性地基于区位或经济地理因素、偶然因素的影响及其历史性积累、政策变动、心理预期等外在条件而起作用;产业集聚机制具有穿越时空的存在性和适用性,随着时间的推移从而技术和制度的进步或贸易自由度的提高,产业集聚机制影响所及的最大空间层面或范围不断扩大,在现代的信息化、全球化时代已扩展至全球层面,产业集聚机制在各种空间层面上广泛存在且交叠嵌套,主导着各种空间层面上的产业集聚,产业集聚机制的强度总体上随着时间的延续而增强,随着空间距离的扩展而减弱,现代条件下产业集聚现象的显著发生要以自由的市场经济制度为前提。
接着,基于分省数据及相关文献对劳动力、资本、狭义的自然资源三大类生产要素的流动及其与经济变动、非农产业集聚程度相关性的统计性、描述性分析和计量检验,本文论证了改革开放后特别是近十多年来我国区域经济差异的基本格局即“东部隆起”和“中部塌陷”现象在表面上是非农产业在跨省或全国这个空间层面上分布越来越不平衡的结果,也就是非农产业在全国范围这个大空间尺度上形成集聚趋势的结果,进一步的剖析发现:“东部隆起”是东部沿海的区位优势、政策优势和产业集聚的循环累积因果机制三大类因素(也可以称为经济地理因素、政策因素和新经济地理因素)共同作用的结果,体现为一个较长时期的过程;随着“东部隆起”过程中产业集聚的循环累积因果机制增强,东部沿海对中、西部内陆的影响越来越大,中、西部内陆的大量生产要素在循环累积因果机制主导下加速流向东部,东部的产业越来越多地占领中、西部市场,中、西部自身的产业集聚总体上受到越来越大的负面影响;中部由于在地理空间上靠近东部,受到的负面影响更大,积累到一定程度后出现经济增长既慢于东部又慢于西部的“塌陷”局面;相应地,全国性区域经济差异的发展格局受到上述趋势的支配,西部大开发和振兴东北老工业基地战略对西部和东北确实起到了一定的促进作用,但总体上不能与产业集聚跨区域的循环累积因果机制的影响抗衡,西部大开发战略对最西部几个省份的积极作用更大,这是因为遥远的空间距离阻隔了生产要素的大规模流出,最西部省份的市场没有受到东部较大的冲击,西部的生产要素和本地市场对本地产业的发展起到了更好的支持作用。
此外,本文顺便讨论了引起广泛关注的“资源诅咒”现象,提出在不对区位因素进行综合考虑的条件下单从“资源诅咒”现象所显示的资源丰裕度与经济增长负相关性推论二者的因果关系在一定程度上是牵强的、狭隘的,指出能源、矿产资源丰裕的地区往往不具有交通运输方面的区位优势(例如临海)、水资源优势、适宜人口密集居住的气候等条件,因此资源丰裕地区的资源常常被其他区位所吸引而不是在资源所在地被投入生产形成大规模的产业集聚。中国学者针对中国的区域经济差异现象所认定的“资源诅咒”规律更多地可以由产业集聚的循环累积因果机制所解释。
最后,本文提出了旨在促进区域经济协调发展的政策建议,核心观点包括:推动区际贸易、深化区际分工、加强区际交流;消除城市(镇)化障碍,在各种区域层面上促进产业集聚;鼓励人口迁移和流动;降低空间成本;引导心理预期。对促进中、西部地区发展,特别是促进“中部崛起”,本文也提出了更具体的建议。
The dissertation focuses on two aspects. On a theoretical level, the dissertation tries to establish a research framework of the mechanism of industrial agglomeration by making use of monopolistic competition and increasing return, which are the basic assumption of new economic geography. The aim is to generalize a simple, clear and refined theory of the mechanism of industrial agglomeration, which involves dimensions both of time and space and can be used to explain all kinds of industrial agglomeration. On a practical level, by using the above theory of the mechanism of industrial agglomeration, the dissertation tries to explain the basic configuration of regional economic difference since china's reform and opening up especially during the the recent more than ten years- the eastern coastal region's economic growth being fast while the middle and western inland region being much slower (i.e., "the eastern region rising") and the economic growth of the generalized defined middle region being slower than not only the east region but also the west region after 1997(i.e., "the middle region sinking").
The definition of "industry" here is extended from manufacturing industry or secondary industry to non-agricultural industries including service industry or tertiary industry. The definition of "industrial agglomeration" has two meanings. One is that industry gathers spatially by transferring. The other is that industry develops inherently in all kinds of locations. In other words, we can conclude that once a region's industries share increase, there occurs industrial agglomeration. The dissertation stresses that "disperse" and "dispersion" are the opposite side of "agglomerate" and "agglomeration". The terminologies express their dynamic and static implications respectively. The opposite two sides are dialectical unity and can not be viewed static and isolated.
The concept of "industry" is not limited to manufacturing industry. "Industrial agglomeration" is closely relevant to natural resources, location factors, industrial linkages, thick market for specialized skills, technological spillover, scale economy, increasing return, land rent, land utilization, transport cost, market area, innovation, commuting cost, external economies, market potentiality, division of labour, specialization, trade cost etc. The dissertation gives a literature review on these aspects as different earlier economists are involved. Those earlier economists mainly include the great economist of Neo-classical economics Alfred Marshall, several important German representatives of classical location theory, and many others of different research mainstreams before the appearance of new economic geography. As Dixit-Stiglitz model of monopolistic competition, new trade theory and new economic geography being put forward, the important theoretical basis or basic assumptions of monopolistic competition and increasing return for explaining the phenomena of industrial agglomeration are well founded. Having summarized further, the basic research framework of the mechanism of industrial agglomeration is established.
Then, based on the literature review and basic economic theory, the dissertation divides the fundamental factors that affect industrial agglomeration and dispersion into four kinds: scale economy, consumer preference, spatial cost and expectation. The dissertation analyzes each factor independently and indicates that technological and institutional progress driven by labor division can also be thought as separate fundamental factors. The dissertation continues to analyze quite a number of models of new economic geography and illustrates that the mechanism of industrial agglomeration in all the models can be treated as some dynamic circular causality. The circular causality originates from a series of effects: the market access effect, the cost-of-living effect, the cost-of-production effect, sharing effect, matching effect, learning effect or spillover effect. The mechanism of industrial agglomeration in reality is an intertwining of all kinds of dynamic circular causality or agglomeration forces originated by these effects. While, the mechanism of industrial agglomeration is also restrained by dispersion forces originated by the following factors: the immobility of land, spatial cost (including transport cost, trade cost and crowding cost), market crowding effect and some expectations.
The increase of trade freeness caused by technological and institutional progress is in favor of agglomeration forces to conquer dispersion forces. This promotes industrial agglomeration and achieves scale economies of production and consumption better. It is a long-time dynamic process. In the short-run, there usually exists a critical condition about trade freeness which determines whether the agglomeration force can conquer dispersion force. The increase of trade freeness near a critical condition will lead to a catastrophic agglomeration. Therefore the occurrence of industrial agglomeration has the characteristic of having stages, which is inclined to widen the regional economic difference due to the market crowding-out effect of interregional trade. The paper also matures the Smith theorem and Yang theorem further by adding spatial dimension.
Theoretically, the dissertation also indicates that although the mechanism of industrial agglomeration itself is a positive feedback effect, it generally operates under the external conditions of location or economic geography factors, effects of accidental factors and its historical accumulation, policy changes, and expectations. The mechanism of industrial agglomeration exists despite of the change of time and space. As time goes by so that trade freeness caused by technological and institutional progress increases, the largest spatial level or scope the mechamsm of industrial agglomeration can affect enlarges. As time of the modern information and globalization occurs in the global level recently, the mechanism of industrial agglomeration exists and overlaps in different kinds of spatial levels, dominating industrial agglomerations in different spatial levels. The strength of industrial agglomeration will generally increase as time goes by, and decrease as distance of space extends. The notable phenomena of modern industrial agglomeration are based on the free market economic system.
Then, based on the data of different provinces and the relevant literatures, the dissertation gives statistical and descriptive analysis and has an econometric empirical test between the flow of labor, capital, narrowly defined natural resources and economic changes, the agglomeration degree of non-agriculture industry. The dissertation proves that the basic configuration of regional economic difference since china's reform and opening up especially during the recent more than ten years (i.e., "the eastern region rising" and "the middle region sinking") is superficially the result of lopsided distribution of non-agriculture industry in inter-provincial or national level. It is also the result of non-agriculture industry's agglomeration trends in national level. By further analysis, it is found that "the eastern region rising" is due to the interactions of three kinds of factors: location advantages, policy advantages and the circular causality mechanism of industrial agglomeration (also called factors of economic geography, policy and new economic geography). It is a long-time process. As the circular causality mechanism of industrial agglomeration strengthens during "the eastern region rising", the eastern coastal region strengthens its effect on the middle and western inlands more and more. Large amount of production factors in the middle and western inlands flow to eastern region faster and faster. The industries of the eastern region occupy the market in the middle and western regions more and more. The industrial agglomeration internally in the middle and western regions are negatively affected. The middle region is more negatively affected because of its spatial proximity to the eastern coastal region. Accumulated to a certain extent, the economic growth rate of the middle region becomes lower than both the eastern and western regions (i.e., "the middle region sinking"). Correspondingly, the basic configuration of regional economic difference is dominated by the above trend. The strategies of western development and the revitalization of old industrial bases in northeastern do have their promoting effects but can not balance the negative effects caused by the mechanism of interregional industrial agglomeration. The strategy of western development has more positive effects on some most western provinces because far distance stops the large-scale production factors flow out to the eastern region. The market of some most western provinces has not suffered shocking occupying and the production factors together with local market there support the development of local industry better.
The dissertation incidentally discusses the broadly concerned phenomenon of "resource curse". It indicates that without considering the location factors comprehensively, the causality will be farfetched and narrow-minded if only it is inferred by economists from the negative correlation between resource richness and economic growth displayed by the phenomenon of "resource curse". It also indicates that the regions with abundant energy resources and mineral resources usually do not have location advantages (e.g., near coast), abundant water resources, suitable climate for densely populated. So resources are often attracted by other regions different from their original regions while not put into production locally to form large-scale industrial agglomeration. The Chinese researchers' identification of the law of "resource curse", which is tightly related to Chinese regional economic difference, can be largely explained by the circular causality mechanism of industrial agglomeration.
Lastly, the dissertation provides policy suggestions for promoting harmonious development of regional economy. The core viewpoints include promoting interregional trade, deepening interregional labour division, strengthening interregional exchanges, eliminating obstacles of urbanization, promoting industrial agglomerations in all the regional or spatial levels, encouraging migration and population flow, reducing spatial cost, and guiding expectations. The dissertation also provides more concrete suggestions for promoting the development of the middle and western regions especially "the middle region rising".
引文
73 关于极化、循环累积因果、增长极等理论的更多介绍和评论请参见陈秀山和张可云(2003)、安虎森(1997)、王缉慈(2001)。
74 参见Krugman(1995)的中译本克鲁格曼(2000,pp51,98-99)
75 参见王缉慈(2001)、杨蕙馨和李宁(2006)。
76 参见杨小凯(1998)、杨小凯和张永生(2003)。
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