地下水环境健康预测研究与应用
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摘要
地下水环境作为水环境的重要组成部分,是社会经济发展以及生态系统稳定的基础和保障条件之一。在天然因素和人类活动的共同影响下,地下水系统环境遭到严重破坏,危及生态系统的健康,且造成了社会经济的严重损失。因此,根据地下水环境健康状况综合评价及其发展和演化趋势预测,为水行政主管部门加强水资源管理提供技术支撑,促进地下水及水资源的集约开发、节约利用和有效保护,以实现脆弱的地下水系统环境的健康可持续发展。
本文以地下水环境健康理论为基础,进行地下水环境健康预测研究。构建了地下水环境健康综合评价和预测体系,将投影寻踪模型引入地下水环境健康预测研究。利用投影寻踪等级评价模型和回归模型进行地下水环境健康综合评价和预测。建立了集地下水环境健康综合评价和预测功能的地下水环境健康管理系统。以吉林省西部地区为例,进行了研究区地下水环境健康预测研究,建立了基于WISYS软件平台的地下水环境健康管理系统,进行研究区地下水环境健康综合评价和预测。
As an important component of water environment, the groundwater environment can play a dicisive role to promote the sound development of the ecological environment, and to carry out aim of the sustainable development of economy and society can be guarented by the sustainable use of water resources.
Groundwaer environment include the primary and secondary environment. It can be predicted Scientifically and achieved the sustainable development of groundwater environment that to analyze the internal and external (natural and man-made) impact factors about the groundwater environment development and evolution, and to set up the forecasting system on the groundwater environment health. It can be guided the development of scientific and reasonable utilization and protection of groundwater resources, and can be promopted development of the groundwater environment health. So the study on groundwater environment health must be the important theoretical and practical application value.
It can be constructed the system of groundwater environment health forecasting and enriched the theoretical system of groundwater environmental health research by the study on groundwater environment health forecasting. And the system is applied to the western region of JiLin province, by the system, the groundwater environment health statement can be assessed, and then the evalution trend can be analyzed and forecasted.
1. Construction the theorical system of groundwater environment health forecasting
(1) The definition and connotation of groundwater environment health
The definition of groundwater environment health is to characterize the state of groundwater environment—the indicators of groundwater environment health. It is refer to the stability and sustainability of groundwater environment in the play of its resources, ecological and geological aspects of environmental functions. The healthy groundwater environment under the quo status conditions can play a normal function, and can maintain the structure stability and normal function of groundwater environment system under the influence of outside and human being’s activity in the long-term, the normal cycles of material and energy was no damage, and it can be certain resistance and resilience against the outside influence in long-term, and can be with the self-recovery capabilities in the context of a certain degree of external stress through self-regulation.
(2) The definition and connotation of groundwater environment health forecasting
The groundwater environment health forecasting is on the basis of the assessment under the quo status of the groundwater environment health, according to the plan of the groundwater and water resource exploitation and the society and economic development plan, the groundwater environment health forecasting can by carried on by the groundwater environment health forecasting model. Groundwater environment health forecasting, with the assessment and the early-warning, consist of the three main direction of the groundwater envirionment health study, and is the base and the foundation of groundwater environment health early-warning. The groundwater environment health forecasting, to predict the evolution trend of the groundwater environment health, can find the problem of the water resource management plan in advance for water administrative departments and adjust the plan in time, and can provide the scientific basis for the water resource rational exploitation and groundwater environment improvement and water resource scientific management and optimize the allocation and sustainable use, and provide the strong support for the economic and society sustainable development.
2. Groundwater environment health forecasting indicator system construction
I t is try to construct the groundwater environment health forecasting indicator system in this paper, and the evolution trend of the groundwater environment health can be predicted on the base of assessment under the quo status. According to the connotation of groundwater environment health and its forecasting, in the light of four layers such as objective layer, criteria layer, classification layer and indicator layer, adoption to the structure model of the Bossel sustainable development basic oriental framework, the indicator system, consist of the six basic kinds such as existence, effectiveness, freedom of action, security, adaptability and coexistence, can be constructed from the sustainable use of groundwater environment. Then in accordance with national and local standards and the corresponding research results, the indicators can be divided into healthy, sub healthy and unhealthy three grade state.
3. Groundwater environment health forecasting model
According to the basic concept, basic theory, features and research content of the projection pursuit and its model, the projection pursuit model can be introduced into the prediction model of groundwater environmental health, and adopted the projection pursuit grade evalutation model to carry out the comprehensive assessment and adopted the projection pursuit regression model to carry out the prediction.
4. The construction of groundwater environment health forecasting system based on WISYS
The WISYS information system software is“948”project of Ministry of Water Resources—The key technique of the integrated Water software, which is applied by Shanghai Water Authority, the June 2004. The software is the information system developed by WASY of Germany. According to the feature, basic function and exist problem of the software, the groundwater environment health management system can be constructed based on WISYS, and the function of system is combined the assessment, forcasting and early-warning of groundwater environment health.
5. The application of groundwater environment health forecasting at the western region of JiLin Province
(1) The groundwater environment evolution
The exploitation of groundwater for 30years, the groundwater environment of study area may experienced a primary stage, the coordinated development of the stage and the uncoordinated phase of three phases on the time scale, and now the groundwater environment is entering a new equilibrium phase, the new equilibrium is the equilibrium under the unhealthy status. The major contradictions and problems can be identified in the groundwater exploitation by the evolution regular pattern analysis about the indicators of groundwater environment health forecasting.
(2) The groundwater environment health comprehensive assessment and forecasting
The comprehensive assessment can be carried out by the projection pursuit cluster model in the groundwater environment health forecasting system, and combination of assessment results, the groundwater environment health prediction of the study area can by carried out by projection pursuit regression. The comprehensive assessment and the prediction model parameter adjustment can by carried out by the indictors data of study area groundwater environment health forecasting system from 1990 to 2008, and predicted the groundwater environment health status from 2009 to 2020. And then according to the result, the evolution pattern and trend of the study area can be analysed, and the major contradictions in groundwater exploitation also can be analysed, and all these can give the water administrative department advice and suggestions for groundwater and water resource rational exploitation, and Optimize the configuration, as well as the scientific management and protection of water resources.
本文以地下水环境健康理论为基础,进行地下水环境健康预测研究。构建了地下水环境健康综合评价和预测体系,将投影寻踪模型引入地下水环境健康预测研究。利用投影寻踪等级评价模型和回归模型进行地下水环境健康综合评价和预测。建立了集地下水环境健康综合评价和预测功能的地下水环境健康管理系统。以吉林省西部地区为例,进行了研究区地下水环境健康预测研究,建立了基于WISYS软件平台的地下水环境健康管理系统,进行研究区地下水环境健康综合评价和预测。
As an important component of water environment, the groundwater environment can play a dicisive role to promote the sound development of the ecological environment, and to carry out aim of the sustainable development of economy and society can be guarented by the sustainable use of water resources.
Groundwaer environment include the primary and secondary environment. It can be predicted Scientifically and achieved the sustainable development of groundwater environment that to analyze the internal and external (natural and man-made) impact factors about the groundwater environment development and evolution, and to set up the forecasting system on the groundwater environment health. It can be guided the development of scientific and reasonable utilization and protection of groundwater resources, and can be promopted development of the groundwater environment health. So the study on groundwater environment health must be the important theoretical and practical application value.
It can be constructed the system of groundwater environment health forecasting and enriched the theoretical system of groundwater environmental health research by the study on groundwater environment health forecasting. And the system is applied to the western region of JiLin province, by the system, the groundwater environment health statement can be assessed, and then the evalution trend can be analyzed and forecasted.
1. Construction the theorical system of groundwater environment health forecasting
(1) The definition and connotation of groundwater environment health
The definition of groundwater environment health is to characterize the state of groundwater environment—the indicators of groundwater environment health. It is refer to the stability and sustainability of groundwater environment in the play of its resources, ecological and geological aspects of environmental functions. The healthy groundwater environment under the quo status conditions can play a normal function, and can maintain the structure stability and normal function of groundwater environment system under the influence of outside and human being’s activity in the long-term, the normal cycles of material and energy was no damage, and it can be certain resistance and resilience against the outside influence in long-term, and can be with the self-recovery capabilities in the context of a certain degree of external stress through self-regulation.
(2) The definition and connotation of groundwater environment health forecasting
The groundwater environment health forecasting is on the basis of the assessment under the quo status of the groundwater environment health, according to the plan of the groundwater and water resource exploitation and the society and economic development plan, the groundwater environment health forecasting can by carried on by the groundwater environment health forecasting model. Groundwater environment health forecasting, with the assessment and the early-warning, consist of the three main direction of the groundwater envirionment health study, and is the base and the foundation of groundwater environment health early-warning. The groundwater environment health forecasting, to predict the evolution trend of the groundwater environment health, can find the problem of the water resource management plan in advance for water administrative departments and adjust the plan in time, and can provide the scientific basis for the water resource rational exploitation and groundwater environment improvement and water resource scientific management and optimize the allocation and sustainable use, and provide the strong support for the economic and society sustainable development.
2. Groundwater environment health forecasting indicator system construction
I t is try to construct the groundwater environment health forecasting indicator system in this paper, and the evolution trend of the groundwater environment health can be predicted on the base of assessment under the quo status. According to the connotation of groundwater environment health and its forecasting, in the light of four layers such as objective layer, criteria layer, classification layer and indicator layer, adoption to the structure model of the Bossel sustainable development basic oriental framework, the indicator system, consist of the six basic kinds such as existence, effectiveness, freedom of action, security, adaptability and coexistence, can be constructed from the sustainable use of groundwater environment. Then in accordance with national and local standards and the corresponding research results, the indicators can be divided into healthy, sub healthy and unhealthy three grade state.
3. Groundwater environment health forecasting model
According to the basic concept, basic theory, features and research content of the projection pursuit and its model, the projection pursuit model can be introduced into the prediction model of groundwater environmental health, and adopted the projection pursuit grade evalutation model to carry out the comprehensive assessment and adopted the projection pursuit regression model to carry out the prediction.
4. The construction of groundwater environment health forecasting system based on WISYS
The WISYS information system software is“948”project of Ministry of Water Resources—The key technique of the integrated Water software, which is applied by Shanghai Water Authority, the June 2004. The software is the information system developed by WASY of Germany. According to the feature, basic function and exist problem of the software, the groundwater environment health management system can be constructed based on WISYS, and the function of system is combined the assessment, forcasting and early-warning of groundwater environment health.
5. The application of groundwater environment health forecasting at the western region of JiLin Province
(1) The groundwater environment evolution
The exploitation of groundwater for 30years, the groundwater environment of study area may experienced a primary stage, the coordinated development of the stage and the uncoordinated phase of three phases on the time scale, and now the groundwater environment is entering a new equilibrium phase, the new equilibrium is the equilibrium under the unhealthy status. The major contradictions and problems can be identified in the groundwater exploitation by the evolution regular pattern analysis about the indicators of groundwater environment health forecasting.
(2) The groundwater environment health comprehensive assessment and forecasting
The comprehensive assessment can be carried out by the projection pursuit cluster model in the groundwater environment health forecasting system, and combination of assessment results, the groundwater environment health prediction of the study area can by carried out by projection pursuit regression. The comprehensive assessment and the prediction model parameter adjustment can by carried out by the indictors data of study area groundwater environment health forecasting system from 1990 to 2008, and predicted the groundwater environment health status from 2009 to 2020. And then according to the result, the evolution pattern and trend of the study area can be analysed, and the major contradictions in groundwater exploitation also can be analysed, and all these can give the water administrative department advice and suggestions for groundwater and water resource rational exploitation, and Optimize the configuration, as well as the scientific management and protection of water resources.
引文
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