基于生态理论的高速公路投资风险管理研究
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摘要
本文针对我国高速公路在经济、社会中的重要作用和影响,以及目前尚未引起社会足够关注的重要问题——高速公路局部投资过热、阶段性投资过热和风险管理严重滞后的情况,深入研究了高速公路投资项目的风险管理。
高速公路投资风险管理不仅关系到投资者本身的收益,影响高速公路的整体效益、交通运输体系的和谐发展,而且还会对金融安全、宏观经济健康运行和科学发展观的落实带来重要影响。高速公路投资的风险管理实践仅仅局限于项目实施的不同阶段,缺乏明确的要求和标准,高速公路投资风险理论研究多是从施工、管理、财务等局部展开,缺乏系统全面的研究。而风险管理理论作为一门从上世纪80年代引进我国的学科,其理论创新和应用实践都具有广阔的空间。因此,本文的研究有着重要的理论意义和实践意义。
本文基于企业生态系统基本理论,运用系统工程的理论与方法,从宏观层面研究了我国高速公路存在的主要风险,以高速公路项目投资风险管理为依托,构建了高速公路投资的风险分析、风险评价、风险预警和风险应对的理论与方法。
本文的主要内容有:
(1)在分析风险管理理论、生态理论和企业生态理论的基础上,研究系统工程理论与方法在项目风险管理领域的应用,分析运用生态系统理论进行风险管理的可行性,研究提出运用生态系统理论进行风险管理思路、方法和技术路线。
(2)分析了高速公路的产品属性,即自然属性、社会属性和商品属性;研究了国外高速公路的两种投资模式,即侧重政府投入的投资模式和侧重市场投入的投资模式;介绍了我国高速公路投资体制和特点,分析了直接融资方式、间接融资方式、BOT融资方式、特许经营权转让方式等主要融资方式,研究了以过程为主的我国高速公路投资项目风险管理的现状,并在单位土地面积高速公路通车里程、单位GDP高速公路通车里程、单位人口高速公路通车里程、单位汽车保有量高速公路通车里程、高速公路规模匹配系数等5个方面,比较中外高速公路发展水平,并在此基础上,从宏观层面研究了我国高速公路建设发展存在的宏观风险、融资风险、市场风险、管理风险、资源和环保风险。
(3)基于生态因子理论,研究了高速公路项目投资的风险因子。对高速公路项目投资风险做了因子分解分析,建立了高速公路项目投资的一级、二级风险因子体系,然后给出了各种生态因子的具体描述,并进行了相关作用机理分析。
(4)基于生态位理论,给出了高速公路项目投资风险的指标体系和方法体系,在建立了高速公路投资项目模糊层次综合评价模型、神经网络评价模型、数据包络评价模型的基础上,运用系统集成方法建立了高速公路投资项目风险综合系统评价模型,并对主要模型进行了实证检验。
(5)研究并建立了高速公路项目投资的风险预警和应对系统。首先,基于生态匹配理论建立了高速公路项目投资风险预警系统,并给出了风险预警的数学模型;其次,基于生态位调控理论,建立了高速公路项目投资风险应对系统,根据高速公路项目进展不同阶段的主要风险及特点,提出了有针对性的风险应对措施,并形成了高速公路项目投资风险应对表;第三,提出了高速公路项目投资风险应对的评价体系,从而建立了由预警系统、应对系统、应对评价系统组成的完整的高速公路项目投资风险应对系统。
本文的创新点有:
(1)将生态理论运用于项目风险管理,研究了运用生态理论构建项目风险管理的可行性,其中将生态因子理论用于风险分析、将生态位理论用于风险评价、生态匹配理路用于风险预警、将生态位调控理论用于风险应对,从而建立基于生态理论的完整的风险管理系统的架构。
(2)在传统干线公路网计算模型的基础上,提出了高速公路规模匹配系数的概念,并给出了数学计算模型,通过中外高速公路规模匹配系数比较,揭示了中国高速公路发展水平已经达到或接近发达国家、局部地区存在阶段性过度投资的潜在风险,为宏观决策和风险管理提供了方法和数据支撑。
(3)风险分析上的创新:将生态因子理论与IDEFO方法相结合,对高速公路项目投资风险因子进行了研究,提出了高速公路项目投资风险的一级和二级风险因子,并分析了风险因子之间的关系和运作机理。
(4)风险评价方法上的创新:基于生态位理论建立了高速公路项目投资风险的评价指标体系和评价方法体系,在模糊层次综合方法、变结构神经网络方法、数据包络方法等3种评价方法的基础上,建立了高速公路项目投资风险的生态位综合评价模型。
(5)风险应对上的创新:基于生态匹配理论建立了高速公路项目投资风险预警模型,基于生态位调控理论建立了高速公路项目投资风险应对系统,并建立了由“风险预警、风险应对决策、风险应对表、风险应对评价”组成的风险应对系统。
Risk management of freeway investment project does not only concern with the success or not, influent the whole benefits of the investment project, and impact on the harmonious development of transportation systems of expressway, but also will bring the significant influence on the financial security, operation of macroeconomic healthy and the implementation of the development in a scientific way.
Focus on the important role and the influence of freeway on economy and society, overheated situation of investment for some local freeways, invest exceed the specific demand, and serious lag of investment management research in China, this paper has studied the risk management of the investment project of the freeway deeply.
In the past, the freeway investment risk management practice only confined to the different stages of project implementation and lack of specific requirements and standards. And the freeway investment risk theoretical studies divided to the construction, management and financial specific aspect, lack of systematic and comprehensive study. Risk management theory as an emerging discipline that introduced from abroad in 1980's has broad space and excellent prospect in innovation and application. So, the study has important theoretical and practical significance.
Based on the basic theories of enterprise ecosystem and by using of related theories and methods of system engineering, this paper analyzed and listed the main risks of freeway on the macro level, and then, constructed corresponding theory and method of risk analysis, assessment, prior alarming and responding for the project risk management of freeway investment based on the investment risk management of freeway.
The main content in this paper are as follows.
First, based on the risk management theory and ecological theory and enterprise ecosystem theory, the paper studied the applications of systems engineering theory and methods in the field of project risk management and analyzed the feasibility of applying the ecological systems theory to risk management and proposed ideas, methods and technical route for it.
Second, this paper analyzed the properties of freeway such as natural property, social property and commercial property; introduced and classified the two main foreign investment modes in freeway that is focused on the government's investment model and investments in market-oriented input mode; analyzed the characteristics of freeway investment organization in China that included direct investment, indirect investment, Build-Operate-Transfer investment and franchising right transfer investment etc, studied the process-oriented project risk management condition. Based on large amounts of data and parameters of economy and society such as freeway mileage per territory area, freeway mileage per GDP, freeway mileage per population, freeway mileage per car, and matching factors of freeway scale to society and economy demand, this paper gave a development level comparative analysis between homeland and abroad. And more, this paper classified and studied the macro risk, financing risk, market risk; management risk, resource risk and environment protect risk that existed in freeway investment in China on the macro level.
Third, based on the theory of ecological factors theory, this paper studied the freeway project investment risk factors, completed the factorization analysis for investment risk of freeway projects and then constructed the first and second level of risk factor system of freeway investment project. This paper also gave a variety of specific description for some ecological factors, and then presented the analysis of the relevant action mechanism.
Fourth, based on theory of niche, the index and method system for analyzing the investment risk of freeway project was constructed; after the evaluation model of Fuzzy AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process), BP(Back propagation)neural network and DEA(Data Envelopment Analysis) method construction, this paper also has set up the integrative evaluation model of investment risk for freeway projects, and then demonstrated these models.
Fifth, this paper studied and set up a prior alarming and responding system for investment risk of freeway project. Firstly, based on the eco-matching theory, a prior alarm system of freeway project investment risk was set up and the risk advanced warring model was also built in this paper. Secondly, based on the niche regulation theory, the system to deal with investment risk of freeway project was set up. According to the main risks and their characteristics in different stages of the progress of freeway projects, this paper proposed some response measures that to deal with related risks, and then the table to deal with the investment risk of freeway projects were presented.
Thirdly, this paper proposed the evaluation model of risk responding of freeway investment projects. At last, the complete system of risk responding of freeway investment project which consist of prior alarming system, responding system, and responding evaluation system was set up in this paper.
The innovations in the paper presented are as follows:
(1) Studied the feasibility and applied the ecological theory to the risk management in which the theory of ecological factors was used to the analysis of risk factors, the theory of ecological niche to risk evaluation, eco-matching theory to risk prior alarming and theory of niche regulation to risk responding, so the complete system framework of risk management based on the theory of ecological system was built in this paper at last.
(2) Based on the calculating model of traditional sketch highway network, this paper presented the concept of matching factor for freeway scale, and gave the calculating model; through the comparison of freeway scale matching factors between China and developed countries, this paper get the strategy conclusions that the development level of Chinese freeway is similar to some developed countries, and there exists the over-hot phenomenon of investment in special development phase in some districts in China and these can provide method and data support for macro policy decision making and risk management.
(3) The innovation on factor analysis: combined the ecological factor theory with the IDEF0 method to study and classify the risk factors of freeway investment project, this paper proposed the first grade and the second grade risk factor of the investment risk of freeway project and analyzed the correlation and interaction mechanism.
(4) The innovation on risk evaluation method: the evaluation index system and method system of the investment risk of freeway project was set up on the basis of the theory of niche, and more, based on the comparison of AHP, the topology-varied neural network and DEA, this paper set up niche comprehensive evaluation model of freeway investment project.
(5) The innovation on risk responding: the risk prior alarming system model of freeway project investment was set up based on the ecological matching theory; the risk responding system of freeway project investment on the niche regulation theory, and then this paper also have set up the risk responding system which consists of three stages: risk warning, the decision making of risk responding, the table of risk response and the evaluation of risk response.
高速公路投资风险管理不仅关系到投资者本身的收益,影响高速公路的整体效益、交通运输体系的和谐发展,而且还会对金融安全、宏观经济健康运行和科学发展观的落实带来重要影响。高速公路投资的风险管理实践仅仅局限于项目实施的不同阶段,缺乏明确的要求和标准,高速公路投资风险理论研究多是从施工、管理、财务等局部展开,缺乏系统全面的研究。而风险管理理论作为一门从上世纪80年代引进我国的学科,其理论创新和应用实践都具有广阔的空间。因此,本文的研究有着重要的理论意义和实践意义。
本文基于企业生态系统基本理论,运用系统工程的理论与方法,从宏观层面研究了我国高速公路存在的主要风险,以高速公路项目投资风险管理为依托,构建了高速公路投资的风险分析、风险评价、风险预警和风险应对的理论与方法。
本文的主要内容有:
(1)在分析风险管理理论、生态理论和企业生态理论的基础上,研究系统工程理论与方法在项目风险管理领域的应用,分析运用生态系统理论进行风险管理的可行性,研究提出运用生态系统理论进行风险管理思路、方法和技术路线。
(2)分析了高速公路的产品属性,即自然属性、社会属性和商品属性;研究了国外高速公路的两种投资模式,即侧重政府投入的投资模式和侧重市场投入的投资模式;介绍了我国高速公路投资体制和特点,分析了直接融资方式、间接融资方式、BOT融资方式、特许经营权转让方式等主要融资方式,研究了以过程为主的我国高速公路投资项目风险管理的现状,并在单位土地面积高速公路通车里程、单位GDP高速公路通车里程、单位人口高速公路通车里程、单位汽车保有量高速公路通车里程、高速公路规模匹配系数等5个方面,比较中外高速公路发展水平,并在此基础上,从宏观层面研究了我国高速公路建设发展存在的宏观风险、融资风险、市场风险、管理风险、资源和环保风险。
(3)基于生态因子理论,研究了高速公路项目投资的风险因子。对高速公路项目投资风险做了因子分解分析,建立了高速公路项目投资的一级、二级风险因子体系,然后给出了各种生态因子的具体描述,并进行了相关作用机理分析。
(4)基于生态位理论,给出了高速公路项目投资风险的指标体系和方法体系,在建立了高速公路投资项目模糊层次综合评价模型、神经网络评价模型、数据包络评价模型的基础上,运用系统集成方法建立了高速公路投资项目风险综合系统评价模型,并对主要模型进行了实证检验。
(5)研究并建立了高速公路项目投资的风险预警和应对系统。首先,基于生态匹配理论建立了高速公路项目投资风险预警系统,并给出了风险预警的数学模型;其次,基于生态位调控理论,建立了高速公路项目投资风险应对系统,根据高速公路项目进展不同阶段的主要风险及特点,提出了有针对性的风险应对措施,并形成了高速公路项目投资风险应对表;第三,提出了高速公路项目投资风险应对的评价体系,从而建立了由预警系统、应对系统、应对评价系统组成的完整的高速公路项目投资风险应对系统。
本文的创新点有:
(1)将生态理论运用于项目风险管理,研究了运用生态理论构建项目风险管理的可行性,其中将生态因子理论用于风险分析、将生态位理论用于风险评价、生态匹配理路用于风险预警、将生态位调控理论用于风险应对,从而建立基于生态理论的完整的风险管理系统的架构。
(2)在传统干线公路网计算模型的基础上,提出了高速公路规模匹配系数的概念,并给出了数学计算模型,通过中外高速公路规模匹配系数比较,揭示了中国高速公路发展水平已经达到或接近发达国家、局部地区存在阶段性过度投资的潜在风险,为宏观决策和风险管理提供了方法和数据支撑。
(3)风险分析上的创新:将生态因子理论与IDEFO方法相结合,对高速公路项目投资风险因子进行了研究,提出了高速公路项目投资风险的一级和二级风险因子,并分析了风险因子之间的关系和运作机理。
(4)风险评价方法上的创新:基于生态位理论建立了高速公路项目投资风险的评价指标体系和评价方法体系,在模糊层次综合方法、变结构神经网络方法、数据包络方法等3种评价方法的基础上,建立了高速公路项目投资风险的生态位综合评价模型。
(5)风险应对上的创新:基于生态匹配理论建立了高速公路项目投资风险预警模型,基于生态位调控理论建立了高速公路项目投资风险应对系统,并建立了由“风险预警、风险应对决策、风险应对表、风险应对评价”组成的风险应对系统。
Risk management of freeway investment project does not only concern with the success or not, influent the whole benefits of the investment project, and impact on the harmonious development of transportation systems of expressway, but also will bring the significant influence on the financial security, operation of macroeconomic healthy and the implementation of the development in a scientific way.
Focus on the important role and the influence of freeway on economy and society, overheated situation of investment for some local freeways, invest exceed the specific demand, and serious lag of investment management research in China, this paper has studied the risk management of the investment project of the freeway deeply.
In the past, the freeway investment risk management practice only confined to the different stages of project implementation and lack of specific requirements and standards. And the freeway investment risk theoretical studies divided to the construction, management and financial specific aspect, lack of systematic and comprehensive study. Risk management theory as an emerging discipline that introduced from abroad in 1980's has broad space and excellent prospect in innovation and application. So, the study has important theoretical and practical significance.
Based on the basic theories of enterprise ecosystem and by using of related theories and methods of system engineering, this paper analyzed and listed the main risks of freeway on the macro level, and then, constructed corresponding theory and method of risk analysis, assessment, prior alarming and responding for the project risk management of freeway investment based on the investment risk management of freeway.
The main content in this paper are as follows.
First, based on the risk management theory and ecological theory and enterprise ecosystem theory, the paper studied the applications of systems engineering theory and methods in the field of project risk management and analyzed the feasibility of applying the ecological systems theory to risk management and proposed ideas, methods and technical route for it.
Second, this paper analyzed the properties of freeway such as natural property, social property and commercial property; introduced and classified the two main foreign investment modes in freeway that is focused on the government's investment model and investments in market-oriented input mode; analyzed the characteristics of freeway investment organization in China that included direct investment, indirect investment, Build-Operate-Transfer investment and franchising right transfer investment etc, studied the process-oriented project risk management condition. Based on large amounts of data and parameters of economy and society such as freeway mileage per territory area, freeway mileage per GDP, freeway mileage per population, freeway mileage per car, and matching factors of freeway scale to society and economy demand, this paper gave a development level comparative analysis between homeland and abroad. And more, this paper classified and studied the macro risk, financing risk, market risk; management risk, resource risk and environment protect risk that existed in freeway investment in China on the macro level.
Third, based on the theory of ecological factors theory, this paper studied the freeway project investment risk factors, completed the factorization analysis for investment risk of freeway projects and then constructed the first and second level of risk factor system of freeway investment project. This paper also gave a variety of specific description for some ecological factors, and then presented the analysis of the relevant action mechanism.
Fourth, based on theory of niche, the index and method system for analyzing the investment risk of freeway project was constructed; after the evaluation model of Fuzzy AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process), BP(Back propagation)neural network and DEA(Data Envelopment Analysis) method construction, this paper also has set up the integrative evaluation model of investment risk for freeway projects, and then demonstrated these models.
Fifth, this paper studied and set up a prior alarming and responding system for investment risk of freeway project. Firstly, based on the eco-matching theory, a prior alarm system of freeway project investment risk was set up and the risk advanced warring model was also built in this paper. Secondly, based on the niche regulation theory, the system to deal with investment risk of freeway project was set up. According to the main risks and their characteristics in different stages of the progress of freeway projects, this paper proposed some response measures that to deal with related risks, and then the table to deal with the investment risk of freeway projects were presented.
Thirdly, this paper proposed the evaluation model of risk responding of freeway investment projects. At last, the complete system of risk responding of freeway investment project which consist of prior alarming system, responding system, and responding evaluation system was set up in this paper.
The innovations in the paper presented are as follows:
(1) Studied the feasibility and applied the ecological theory to the risk management in which the theory of ecological factors was used to the analysis of risk factors, the theory of ecological niche to risk evaluation, eco-matching theory to risk prior alarming and theory of niche regulation to risk responding, so the complete system framework of risk management based on the theory of ecological system was built in this paper at last.
(2) Based on the calculating model of traditional sketch highway network, this paper presented the concept of matching factor for freeway scale, and gave the calculating model; through the comparison of freeway scale matching factors between China and developed countries, this paper get the strategy conclusions that the development level of Chinese freeway is similar to some developed countries, and there exists the over-hot phenomenon of investment in special development phase in some districts in China and these can provide method and data support for macro policy decision making and risk management.
(3) The innovation on factor analysis: combined the ecological factor theory with the IDEF0 method to study and classify the risk factors of freeway investment project, this paper proposed the first grade and the second grade risk factor of the investment risk of freeway project and analyzed the correlation and interaction mechanism.
(4) The innovation on risk evaluation method: the evaluation index system and method system of the investment risk of freeway project was set up on the basis of the theory of niche, and more, based on the comparison of AHP, the topology-varied neural network and DEA, this paper set up niche comprehensive evaluation model of freeway investment project.
(5) The innovation on risk responding: the risk prior alarming system model of freeway project investment was set up based on the ecological matching theory; the risk responding system of freeway project investment on the niche regulation theory, and then this paper also have set up the risk responding system which consists of three stages: risk warning, the decision making of risk responding, the table of risk response and the evaluation of risk response.
引文
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