国际视野下的农产品价格风险管理研究
|
摘要
本文从农产品价格的形成和在国际间传导入手,科学界定农产品价格风险的相关概念,强调农产品价格风险管理的重要性。在相关理论和模型的支撑下,深入剖析农产品价格风险管理的市场工具和政策工具的作用机制,强调了政策支持的理由。通过考察分析国内外市场工具和政策工具运用于农产品价格风险管理的理论和经验,从我国的实际出发,构建农产品价格风险管理体系,创新农产品价格风险管理工具,并据此制定相关的政策措施,为新时期下各种工具运用于我国农产品价格风险管理的研究提供参照与指导。
本文的主要研究框架结构分为六个部分。首先为导论部分。主要介绍了本文研究的背景和意义,研究方法和框架及创新之处。
第二部分为农产品价格风险管理理论分析。主要介绍了目前风险的一般理论,界定了概念;研究了发展的现状;分析了目前风险管理的相关理论,如农产品价格风险管理的目标理论、价格预期理论、金融市场论、购买力平价理论、农业保护理论、不完全竞争论和国家干预论等市场管理理论和政策管理理论;阐述了国际市场农产品价格影响国内市场农产品价格的传导链,即国际市场价格——进口价格——国内市场价格这种国际间的传导机制,为下面针对性的管理打下基础;介绍了农产品价格风险的随机度量模型、蛛网模型、理性价格预期和人工神经网络等相关模型,为下面的实证部分打下理论基础。
第三部分是农产品价格风险管理的市场工具以及政策工具。这里主要循着价格风险传导的路径运用相关工具管理农产品价格风险,通过合约、期货、期权等管理市场价格风险;以储备制度等价格稳定机制、价格保险和关税等边境政策管理政策价格风险。系统分析了目前比较常用的金融衍生工具,对相关工具进行了比较研究。
第四部分为世界主要经济体农产品价格风险管理的经验与教训。主要是分析了美国、欧盟、日本以及发展中国家农产品价格风险管理情况,对世界农产品价格风险管理的经验与教训进行评价。美国具有世界上最发达的农产品价格风险市场管理经验,通过无追索权贷款项目和目标价格补贴完善价格支持政策,通过大企业、定价优势、美元霸权来强化边境政策。欧盟的共同农业政策(CAP)是管理农产品价格风险的核心,它通过目标价格、干预价格和门槛价格构成国内市场的价格保护,通过进口差额税和出口农产品补贴与门槛价格构成对外价格保护,从而构成稳定完善的内部市场价格体系。同时,欧盟近来也表现了积极的市场化倾向。日本农业协会在农业管理方面具有垄断地位,通过复杂的农产品价格政策(七类)实行严格的价格管理制度,造成严重的价格扭曲,其市场管理工具虽然起步早,但功能没有充分发挥。发展中国家市场机制远不如发达国家完善,农产品价格风险管理工具少,往往市场政策工具并用。其中一些较先进的国家能充分利用国际期货期权市场的农产品指导价格,通过套期保值来管理农产品价格风险,另一些国家对农产品价格管理则多体现为保护性的干预。WTO也给发展中国家农产品价格风险管理带来一定的负面影响。
第五部分为中国农产品价格风险的实证分析。本文主要以大豆的两个品种豆粕与豆一为例,结合该品种相关时间内的期货价格,以时间序列模型为基础,具体分析了中国农产品的价格波动特征。用GARCH来证实贝克的预期理论(农产品的价格波动受到了过去价格波动的影响,而价格波动又会导致价格预期的变化,农产品价格风险存在并可能放大),用EGARCH证实“杠杆效应”(负的冲击似乎比正的冲击更容易增加波动),用多元GARCH验证传导问题。得出贝克效应明显、“杠杆效应”不存在和上下游产品价格风险单向传导的结论。说明我国农产品价格风险管理市场化水平还不高,期货市场发育不够完善,价格风险依然很大。
最后一部分为管理体系构建与相关政策建议。针对市场价格风险,我们往往采用市场管理工具,如合约(定单)、期货、期权管理;针对政策价格风险,我们往往采用国内价格支持工具,如价格保护、农产品储备、储备基金体系,保险与补贴支持等;针对关税和国际汇率风险,我们往往采用边境政策工具,如关税与配额、汇率管理、绿色与技术壁垒等。各种工具综合运用、相互配合以达到最佳效果。论文最后提出相关政策建议,即强化市场工具、调整支持政策、拓展边境政策和优化制度环境。
In this paper, we start from the formation of prices of agricultural products and conduction in the international community, defined the scientific related concepts of agricultural price risk, emphasize the importance of the risk management of prices of agricultural products. Under the support of the relevant theory and models, we analyze the agricultural price risk management tools and policy tools market mechanism in-depth, stressed the importance of the reasons for policy support. From the analysis the domestic and foreign markets through the inspection tools and policy tools applied to agricultural price risk management theory and experience and the reality of our country, we build a system of agricultural price risk management, innovation of agricultural price risk management tools, and accordingly the development of relevant policies and measures for the new era under the various tools used in China's agricultural price risk management study provide a frame of reference and guidance.
In this paper, the main research framework structure is divided into six parts. The first of all is the part of the introduction. This article introduces the research background, as well as the methods used in this article and innovation.
The second part is the agricultural price risk analysis. We mainly introduce the risk of the general theory, define the concept research and study the development related to the status quo the analysis of the current risk management theory, prices of agricultural products such as the goal of risk management theory, the price is expected to theory, financial markets, the theory of purchasing power parity theory, agriculture the protection of the theory of imperfect competition theory and the theory of state intervention, such as market management theory and policy management theory; on the international market prices of agricultural products affected the domestic market prices of agricultural products conduction chain, namely the international market price - import prices - the domestic market price of such international transmission mechanism, for the following lay the foundation for targeted management; introduce the risk of the prices of agricultural products of random measurement model, web model, rational price expectations and artificial neural networks and other related models, for the following empirical part of laying a theoretical basis.
The third part is the price of agricultural commodities market risk management tools and policy instruments. Here we follow the main conduction path of price risk related to use of agricultural price risk management tools, through contracts, futures, options market risk management; to reserve system, such as price stabilization mechanisms and tariffs, subsidies, commodity price insurance and other border policy management policy risks. Analysis of the current commonly used financial derivatives, and related tools to conduct a comparative study.
The fourth part is divided into the world's major economies agricultural price risk management experience and lessons learned. It is mainly an analysis of the United States, the European Union, Japan and developing countries, agricultural price risk management, on the world agricultural price risk management experience and lessons learned from the evaluation. The United States has the world's most developed market of agricultural price risk management experience, through non-recourse loan projects and target price subsidies to improve the price support policy, through large enterprises, pricing advantages, the U.S. hegemonic policies to strengthen the border. The EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is the core of the farm price risk management. It is through the target price, the intervention prices and the threshold prices of the domestic market price protection. Through the difference between the import tax and export agricultural subsidies and the threshold prices of external price protection, it thereby constitutes a stable complete the internal market price system. At the same time, the EU has also shown a positive trend in the market. Japan's agriculture associations in agricultural management has a monopoly prices of agricultural products through the complex policy. Price strict management system, resulting in serious distortion of prices, the market management tools Although early start, but not fully functional. The market mechanism in developing countries is less than the developed countries. Some of the more advanced countries make full use of international futures options market guide price of agricultural products, hedging to manage price risk, some other countries for the management of agricultural prices are reflected in many of protective intervention. WTO agricultural prices also give developing countries the risk of bring about negative effects.
The fifth Part is the price risk for China's agricultural products in the empirical analysis. This article mainly use two varieties of soybean meal and beans one for example, the combination of the species related to the futures prices time-to-time-series model based on specific analysis of the Chinese characteristics of price fluctuations of agricultural products. Using GARCH to prove Baker's expectations theory (the agricultural products subject to price fluctuations of the past price fluctuations, and price volatility will lead to expected changes in prices, agricultural price risks exist and may be enlarged), with EGARCH confirmed that "leverage effect" (negative impact than positive impact seems more vulnerable to increased volatility), by MGARCH verify conduction problem. Baker obviously come to effect, "leverage effect" does not exist and on the lower reaches of the risk of one-way conduction products price conclusions. Shows that prices of agricultural products the level of market risk management is not high, the development of futures markets is not perfect and the price risk is still great.
The last part is the construction of management system and the related policy recommendations. Market price risks, we tend to adopt a market-management tools, such as contracts (orders), futures, options management; against the policy of price risks, we tend to use domestic price support tools, such as price protection, agricultural reserves, reserve fund system, insurance and subsidies support; for tariffs and international exchange rate risks, we tend to use the border policy tools, such as tariffs and quotas, exchange rate management, green and technology barriers. Comprehensive use of various tools will help each other to achieve optimal results. This paper concludes with relevant policy recommendations, namely, to strengthen the market tools, adjust the policy tools, expand the border policy and optimize the system environment.
本文的主要研究框架结构分为六个部分。首先为导论部分。主要介绍了本文研究的背景和意义,研究方法和框架及创新之处。
第二部分为农产品价格风险管理理论分析。主要介绍了目前风险的一般理论,界定了概念;研究了发展的现状;分析了目前风险管理的相关理论,如农产品价格风险管理的目标理论、价格预期理论、金融市场论、购买力平价理论、农业保护理论、不完全竞争论和国家干预论等市场管理理论和政策管理理论;阐述了国际市场农产品价格影响国内市场农产品价格的传导链,即国际市场价格——进口价格——国内市场价格这种国际间的传导机制,为下面针对性的管理打下基础;介绍了农产品价格风险的随机度量模型、蛛网模型、理性价格预期和人工神经网络等相关模型,为下面的实证部分打下理论基础。
第三部分是农产品价格风险管理的市场工具以及政策工具。这里主要循着价格风险传导的路径运用相关工具管理农产品价格风险,通过合约、期货、期权等管理市场价格风险;以储备制度等价格稳定机制、价格保险和关税等边境政策管理政策价格风险。系统分析了目前比较常用的金融衍生工具,对相关工具进行了比较研究。
第四部分为世界主要经济体农产品价格风险管理的经验与教训。主要是分析了美国、欧盟、日本以及发展中国家农产品价格风险管理情况,对世界农产品价格风险管理的经验与教训进行评价。美国具有世界上最发达的农产品价格风险市场管理经验,通过无追索权贷款项目和目标价格补贴完善价格支持政策,通过大企业、定价优势、美元霸权来强化边境政策。欧盟的共同农业政策(CAP)是管理农产品价格风险的核心,它通过目标价格、干预价格和门槛价格构成国内市场的价格保护,通过进口差额税和出口农产品补贴与门槛价格构成对外价格保护,从而构成稳定完善的内部市场价格体系。同时,欧盟近来也表现了积极的市场化倾向。日本农业协会在农业管理方面具有垄断地位,通过复杂的农产品价格政策(七类)实行严格的价格管理制度,造成严重的价格扭曲,其市场管理工具虽然起步早,但功能没有充分发挥。发展中国家市场机制远不如发达国家完善,农产品价格风险管理工具少,往往市场政策工具并用。其中一些较先进的国家能充分利用国际期货期权市场的农产品指导价格,通过套期保值来管理农产品价格风险,另一些国家对农产品价格管理则多体现为保护性的干预。WTO也给发展中国家农产品价格风险管理带来一定的负面影响。
第五部分为中国农产品价格风险的实证分析。本文主要以大豆的两个品种豆粕与豆一为例,结合该品种相关时间内的期货价格,以时间序列模型为基础,具体分析了中国农产品的价格波动特征。用GARCH来证实贝克的预期理论(农产品的价格波动受到了过去价格波动的影响,而价格波动又会导致价格预期的变化,农产品价格风险存在并可能放大),用EGARCH证实“杠杆效应”(负的冲击似乎比正的冲击更容易增加波动),用多元GARCH验证传导问题。得出贝克效应明显、“杠杆效应”不存在和上下游产品价格风险单向传导的结论。说明我国农产品价格风险管理市场化水平还不高,期货市场发育不够完善,价格风险依然很大。
最后一部分为管理体系构建与相关政策建议。针对市场价格风险,我们往往采用市场管理工具,如合约(定单)、期货、期权管理;针对政策价格风险,我们往往采用国内价格支持工具,如价格保护、农产品储备、储备基金体系,保险与补贴支持等;针对关税和国际汇率风险,我们往往采用边境政策工具,如关税与配额、汇率管理、绿色与技术壁垒等。各种工具综合运用、相互配合以达到最佳效果。论文最后提出相关政策建议,即强化市场工具、调整支持政策、拓展边境政策和优化制度环境。
In this paper, we start from the formation of prices of agricultural products and conduction in the international community, defined the scientific related concepts of agricultural price risk, emphasize the importance of the risk management of prices of agricultural products. Under the support of the relevant theory and models, we analyze the agricultural price risk management tools and policy tools market mechanism in-depth, stressed the importance of the reasons for policy support. From the analysis the domestic and foreign markets through the inspection tools and policy tools applied to agricultural price risk management theory and experience and the reality of our country, we build a system of agricultural price risk management, innovation of agricultural price risk management tools, and accordingly the development of relevant policies and measures for the new era under the various tools used in China's agricultural price risk management study provide a frame of reference and guidance.
In this paper, the main research framework structure is divided into six parts. The first of all is the part of the introduction. This article introduces the research background, as well as the methods used in this article and innovation.
The second part is the agricultural price risk analysis. We mainly introduce the risk of the general theory, define the concept research and study the development related to the status quo the analysis of the current risk management theory, prices of agricultural products such as the goal of risk management theory, the price is expected to theory, financial markets, the theory of purchasing power parity theory, agriculture the protection of the theory of imperfect competition theory and the theory of state intervention, such as market management theory and policy management theory; on the international market prices of agricultural products affected the domestic market prices of agricultural products conduction chain, namely the international market price - import prices - the domestic market price of such international transmission mechanism, for the following lay the foundation for targeted management; introduce the risk of the prices of agricultural products of random measurement model, web model, rational price expectations and artificial neural networks and other related models, for the following empirical part of laying a theoretical basis.
The third part is the price of agricultural commodities market risk management tools and policy instruments. Here we follow the main conduction path of price risk related to use of agricultural price risk management tools, through contracts, futures, options market risk management; to reserve system, such as price stabilization mechanisms and tariffs, subsidies, commodity price insurance and other border policy management policy risks. Analysis of the current commonly used financial derivatives, and related tools to conduct a comparative study.
The fourth part is divided into the world's major economies agricultural price risk management experience and lessons learned. It is mainly an analysis of the United States, the European Union, Japan and developing countries, agricultural price risk management, on the world agricultural price risk management experience and lessons learned from the evaluation. The United States has the world's most developed market of agricultural price risk management experience, through non-recourse loan projects and target price subsidies to improve the price support policy, through large enterprises, pricing advantages, the U.S. hegemonic policies to strengthen the border. The EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is the core of the farm price risk management. It is through the target price, the intervention prices and the threshold prices of the domestic market price protection. Through the difference between the import tax and export agricultural subsidies and the threshold prices of external price protection, it thereby constitutes a stable complete the internal market price system. At the same time, the EU has also shown a positive trend in the market. Japan's agriculture associations in agricultural management has a monopoly prices of agricultural products through the complex policy. Price strict management system, resulting in serious distortion of prices, the market management tools Although early start, but not fully functional. The market mechanism in developing countries is less than the developed countries. Some of the more advanced countries make full use of international futures options market guide price of agricultural products, hedging to manage price risk, some other countries for the management of agricultural prices are reflected in many of protective intervention. WTO agricultural prices also give developing countries the risk of bring about negative effects.
The fifth Part is the price risk for China's agricultural products in the empirical analysis. This article mainly use two varieties of soybean meal and beans one for example, the combination of the species related to the futures prices time-to-time-series model based on specific analysis of the Chinese characteristics of price fluctuations of agricultural products. Using GARCH to prove Baker's expectations theory (the agricultural products subject to price fluctuations of the past price fluctuations, and price volatility will lead to expected changes in prices, agricultural price risks exist and may be enlarged), with EGARCH confirmed that "leverage effect" (negative impact than positive impact seems more vulnerable to increased volatility), by MGARCH verify conduction problem. Baker obviously come to effect, "leverage effect" does not exist and on the lower reaches of the risk of one-way conduction products price conclusions. Shows that prices of agricultural products the level of market risk management is not high, the development of futures markets is not perfect and the price risk is still great.
The last part is the construction of management system and the related policy recommendations. Market price risks, we tend to adopt a market-management tools, such as contracts (orders), futures, options management; against the policy of price risks, we tend to use domestic price support tools, such as price protection, agricultural reserves, reserve fund system, insurance and subsidies support; for tariffs and international exchange rate risks, we tend to use the border policy tools, such as tariffs and quotas, exchange rate management, green and technology barriers. Comprehensive use of various tools will help each other to achieve optimal results. This paper concludes with relevant policy recommendations, namely, to strengthen the market tools, adjust the policy tools, expand the border policy and optimize the system environment.
引文
[2]数据和资料均来自:联合国粮农组织主编的《粮农展望》,2007年11月出版。
[3]资料来源:中国人民共和国国家统计局网站;联合国粮农组织主编的《粮农展望》,2007年11月出版。
[4]刘金霞,农业风险管理理论方法及其应用研究[D],天津大学,2004年12月
[5]刘晶,我国农产品价格风险及其管理研究[D],山东农业大学,2005年5月
1.《2004年全球经济展望》编写组[M],中国财政经济出版社,2004。
2.H·范里安.微观经济学:现代观点[M],上海:上海人民出版社,2000。
3.P·R·克鲁格曼,M·奥勃斯弗尔德.国际经济学[M],北京:人民大学出版社,2001。
4.彼得·圣吉.第五项修炼——学习型组织的艺术与实务[M],上海:上海三联书店,1994。
5.曹锦清:黄河边的中国[M],上海,上海文艺出版社,2003。
6.陈传波,丁世军:中国小农户的风险及风险管理研究[M],北京,中国财政经济出版社,2005。
7.郭熙保:农业发展论[M],武汉,武汉大学出版社,1995。
8.何广文:农村金融与信贷政策[M],中国农业出版社,2001。
9.黎雨:中国粮食流通体制改革指导全书(MD),北京,中国大地出版社,1999。
10.李经谋,童宛生:中国期货市场运行机制[M],中国财政经济出版社,1997。
11.李一智.期货与期权教[M],北京:清华大学出版社,2003。
12.厉以宁,秦宛顺:现代西方经济学概论[M],北京,北京大学出版社,1992。
13.联合国粮农组织:2004年农产品市场报告[M],2004。
14.联合国粮农组织主编,粮农展望[M],2007。
15.陆学艺主编.当代中国社会阶层研究报告[M],北京:社会科学文献出版社,2002。
16.木厚大辅:期货操作学[M],北京,北京教育科学出版社1993,中文1版。
17.牛若峰:农业产业一体化经营的理论与实践[M],中国农业科技出版社,1998。
18.农业部:2001年中国农业发展报告[M],北京,中国农业出版社,2001。
19.农业部软科学委员会办公室:农民收入与劳动力转移[M],北京,中国农业出版社,2001。
20.史清琪,赵经彻:中国产业发展报告[M],北京,中国轻工业出版社,2001。
21.苏东水:产业经济学[M],北京,高等教育出版社,2000。
22.孙祁祥.保险学[M],北京:北京大学出版社,2003。
23.陶排等:期货经济学教程[M],上海,商务印书馆,2002。
24.王春峰:金融市场风险管理,天津大学出版社,2001。
25.王国敏:中国农业风险保障体系建设研究[M],成都,四川大学出版社,1997。
26.威廉.格罗斯曼,常青:期货市场的理论政策与管理[M],济南:山东人民出版社,1992。
27.沃尔特·W·威尔科克斯著,美国农业经济学[M],商务印书馆,1987。
28.夏永祥,赵文娟,陈雄伟:农民收入、农民负担与结构调整[M],北京,中国农业出版社,2002。
29.易法海:中国农产品价格学,[N]北京,北京农业大学出版社,1990。
30.约翰.赫尔.期货期权入门[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2001年。
31.张维迎.博弈论与信息经济学.上海:上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,2000。
32.张元红,马忠富:当代农村金融发展的理论与实践[M],南昌:江西人民出版社,2002。
33.中国农业保险和农村社会保障制度研究[M],北京:首都经济贸易大学出版社,2002。
34.中国证券监督管理委员会:2006年中国证券期货统计年鉴[M],学林出版社,2006。
35.冯冠胜:农业风险管理中政府介入问题研究--理论、方式与政策选择[D],浙江大学博 士学位论文,2004年4月1日。
36.冯琳:我国农产品价格风险管理研究[D],吉林大学硕士论文,2005年5月。
37.甘正在:农产品期货市场经济功能分析[D],中国社会科学院博士论文,2003年。
38.郭科:中国农产品期货市场功能与作用研究[D],中国农业科学院博士论文,2004年9月。
39.何常青:农业订单及其风险规避研究[D],吉林大学硕士论文,2006年5月。
40.何忠伟:中国农业补贴政策的效果与体系研究[D],中国农业科学院博士论文,2005年6月。
41.黄民礼:我国农业产业化中的订单农业模式研究[D],东北财经大学硕士论文,2004年12月。
42.姜楠:农产品价格政策的经济分析[D],沈阳农业大学博士论文,2006年06月10日。
43.雷建:我国农业保险发展模式探讨[D],四川大学硕士论文,2005年4月30日。
44.刘金霞,农业风险管理理论方法及其应用研究[D],天津大学,2004年。
45.刘晶:我国农产品价格风险及其管理研究[D],山东农业大学硕士论文,2005年5月。
46.肖勇:我国农业保险经营模式研究[D],湖南农业大学硕士论文,2003年11月。
47.张一民:我国农产品期货市场发展问题研究[D],东北财经大学,2002年2月。
48.Avishay,B.Monika,H:改进发展中国家的农村金融[J],国际货币基金组织和世界银行季刊,1991(1)。
49.安乔治、赵向鸿:农产品价格政策,中国农业信息快讯,2002(3)。
50.曹锟生,邓晶:发展中国家的农产品价格政策比较研究[J],商业研究,2001(06)。
51.陈传波:农户风险与脆弱性:一个分析框架及贫困地区的经验,农业经济问题,2005(8)。
52.陈克文:论风险及其与信息和不确定性的关系[J],系统辩证学学报,1998(1)。
53.陈昆玉、曾丽萍,基于人工神经网络的企业营销风险预警[J],重庆邮电学院学报(社会科学版),2004(5)。
54.陈来生、霍学喜、崔彬,WTO框架下我国农业经营风险和规避对策,农业现代化研究[J],2003(5)。
55.陈孝兵:市场失效下的政府行为[J],财经科学,1997(3)。
56.陈新军等,海洋渔业可持续利用预警系统的初步研究[J],上海水产大学学报,2001(1)。
57.邓大才:粮食流通制度变迁的路径依赖与创新选择,转引白上海法律与经济研究所网,2003。
58.丁士军,陈传波,农户风险处理策略分析[J],农业现代化研究,2001(11)。
59.丁义明,方福康:风险概念分析[J],系统工程学报,2001(10)。
60.董根泰,部分国家农产品价格政策支持研究[J],统计研究,2004(11)。
61.董智汉,建立我国农业风险管理体系[J],中南财经大学学报,1999(2)。
62.董智汉:建立我国农业风险管理体系[J],中南财经大学学报,1999(2)。
63.杜晓君、吕宏等.农产品贸易自由化与我国农业发展[J].农业现代化研究,1988(7)。
64.杜晓山:农村金融体系框架、农村信用社改革和小额贷款[J],中国农村经济,2002(8)。
65.杜彦坤:国家储备粮管理体制的国际比较[J],农业经济问题,2004(10)。
66.冯青松:美国、欧盟、日本农业政策的比较研究及启示[J],世界农业,2004(6)。
67.甘正在:期货市场与国有农场价格风险管理[J],中国农垦经济,2003(4)。
68.高志杰、罗剑朝,发达国家农产品期权市场发展规律及其启示[J],中国农业大学学报(社会科学版),2006(3)。
69.桂红,浅谈农产品市场风险防御[J],广西西农村经济,1992(2)。
70.郭芳:中国农产品收购价格、农业灾害与农产品产量波动分析[J],西南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2002(1)。
71.韩宏华:我国农产品价格政策的目标及措施分析[J],江西农业大学学报,2001(3)。
72.胡江艳,蔡根女,市场经济下的农业风险及对策[J],农业现代化研究,1995(11)。
73.胡江艳、蔡根女:市场经济下的农业风险及对策[J],农业现代化研究,1995(4)。
74.黄洁,丁士军:印度农业风险及应对策略,世界农业,2003(1)。
75.黄祖辉,徐旭初,冯冠胜,农业专业组织发展的影响因素分析-对浙江.农民专业合作组织发展现状的探讨[J],中国农业经济问题,2002(3)。
76.姜楠,方天堃,聂凤英:开放经济体系下汇率变动对农产品价格的影响[J],农业技术经济,2006(5)。
77.金俐:市场失灵:传统分析与现代解释[J],上海大学学报(社会科学版),2002(6)。
78.荆林波,现货市场发育与期货市场发展的相关性-中国农产品期货发展有关问题的探讨[J],中国农村经济,1999(6)。
79.柯炳生:美国新农业法案的主要内容与影响分析[J],中国农村研究,2002(16)。
80.柯柄生:我国近年来衣产品价格变动与政策改革分析[J],经济纵横,1995(2)。
81.柯炳生:我国农产品“买难”、“卖难”交替发生的深层次原因及对策研究[J],农村经济文摘,1999(6)。
82.冷崇总,发展订单农业的思考[J],宏观经济管理,2002(5)。
83.冷淑莲,江野军,冷崇总:关于价格传导机制的分析,福建物价,2004(5)。
84.李桂红:浅谈农产品市场风险防御[J],广西农村经济,1992(2)。
85.李会敏,国涓:农产品价格波动与通货膨胀关系的实证分析[J],辽宁经济,2005(5)。
86.李建平:建立我国农产品价格支持体系的构想[J],价格理论与实践,1996(3)。
87.李敬、潘久政:农产品价格管制对农民收入增长的实证研究[J],新疆农垦经济,2003(6)。
88.李坤民:美国期货市场的发展特点及对我国的启示[J],山东经济,1995(4)。
89.李瑞锋,肖海峰:欧盟、美国和中国的农民直接补贴政策比较研究[J],世界经济研究,2006(7)。
90.刘晶、葛颜祥等.我国农产品价格风险及其防范研究[J],农业现代化研究,2004(6)。
91.陆学艺,农村发展新阶段的新形势和新任务[J],中国农村经济,2000年(6)。
92.聂荣,钱克明,潘德惠,基于阶跃_扩散过程的农业期权定价及订单农业合约[J],数量经济技术经济研究,2004(10)。
93.史清华,姚建民,农业风险管理模式的评析与选择[J],农业经济,1994(2)。
94.孙良媛,论市场经济条件下的农业风险[J],广东社会科学,2001(3)。
95.孙良媛,农业产业化的经营风险与风险控制[J],华南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2003(2)。
96.孙良媛,徐小怡,广东渔业保险发展:问题与对策[J],华南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2008(4)。
97.孙良媛,转型期农业风险的特点与风险管理[J],农业经济问题,2001(8)。
98.王福林,论我国粮食生产者的价格风险及其影响[J],农业技术经济,1995(6)。
99.王红,柯炳繁,美国农业风险和风险管理[J],农业经济问题,1999(10)。
100.王吉恒,王新利.农产品市场风险与市场预测研究[J].农业技术经济,2003(3)。
101.卫龙宝,许卫良,开放市场条件下粮食生产者价格风险的管理手段与选择,农业经济问题[J],2003(3)。
102.熊存开,国外农业风险管理研究[J],农业经济问题,1994(1)。
103.薛昭胜,期权理论对订单农业的指导与应用[J],中国农村经济,2001(2)。
104.杨卫路,要加快建立粮食风险管理与风险机制[J],中国粮食经济,2001(1)。
105.钟思远,农产品期货市场对农产品价格的调节作用[J],天府新论,2002(6)。
106.庄丽娟.我国农业产业化经营中利益分配的制度分析[J],农业经济问题,2000,(4)。
107.Adams,Dale W.2002,Filling the Deposit Gap in Microfinanee[R].Paper for the Best Practices in Savings Mobilization Conference,Washington,DC.
108.Alberto V and William Foster,2003.Special Safeguards for Developing Country Agriculture in WTO Negotiations.7 May.
109.Anning Wei and Raymond M.Leuthold,1998.Long Agricultural Futures Prices:ARCH,Long Memory,or Chaos Processes? OFOR Paper Number 98-03,May
110.Anning W and Raymond M.Leuthold,1998.Long Agricultural Futures Prices:ARCH,Long Memory,or Chaos Processes?OFOR Paper.(3)
111.Axel,F.A.Adam-M(?)uller,Kit Pong Wong,2001.Restricted Export Flexibility and Risk Management with Options and Futures,July 2.
112.Baquet,A.E.,and J.Skees,1994.Group Risk Plan Insurance:An Alternative Management Tool for Farmers.Choices.1:25-28.
113.Barnett.B.J,1999.U.S.Federal Natural Disaster Assistance Policy.Journal of Disaster Studies,Policy and Management.23:139-155.
114.Barry,K.Goodwin,2001.Problems with market insurance in agriculture.American Journal Of Agricultural Economics.8:643-649.
115.Beck,Stacie,1993.A rational expectations model of time varying risk premia in commodities futures markets:theory and evidence[J].International Economic review,34:149-168.
116.Beverly,F,1990.Agricultural Risk Management,Boulder,Colorado:Lynne Rienner Publisher,Inc..
117.Bharat Ramaswami,1993.Supply response to agricultural insurance:risk reduction and moral hazard effects.American Journal of A cultural Economics.11:914-925.
118.Blake,K.Bennett,2003.Evaluation of Cotton Put Options as a Price Risk Management Tool,The Journal of Cotton Science 7:39-44
119.Blake,K.Bennett,2003,Evaluation of Cotton Put Options as a Price Risk Management Tool,The Journal of Cotton Science 7:39-44.
120.Boggess,W K.Amman,and C Hanson,1985.Importance,Causes,and Management Response to Farm risks.Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics 17:105-116.
121.Braga,F,1996.Over-the-Counter Derivatives and Price Management in a Post-Tripartite Environment:The Case of Cattle and Hogs.Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics,44(4)
122.Carl H.Nelson and Edna T.loehman,1987.Further toward a theory of agricultural insurance.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.8:523-531.
123.Communities(2000),The Use of Futures in Agricultural Risk Management,Doc.
124.David,B,1996.Safety-first criteria and their measures of risk.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.2:225-235.
125.Directorate-General Economic and Financial Affairs,Commission of the European
126.Dismukes, R.and Glauber, J.2000, Crop & Revenue Insurance:Preminm Discounts Attractive to Producers, in: Agricultural Outlook, United States Department of Agriculture,Economic Research Service, March 2000, Washington D.C.
127.Dismukes,R,1999.Recent Developments in Crop and Revenue Insurance.Agricultural Outlook .5:16-21.
128.Douglas W.allen and Dean Lueck,1995.Risk preferences the economics of contracts.The American Economic Review
129.Duncan, Richard,1999.Agricultural Futures And Options: Understanding And Implementing Trades On The North American And European Markets
130.Eidman, V .Planning an Integrated Approach to Farm Risk Management.Journal.Of Agribusiness Management.1985(3): 11-16.
131.Erin, B,2001 Risk Management: Pricing, Insurance, Guarantees-The Use of Price and Weather Risk Management Instruments.The World Bank .2001.
132.European Commission Agriculture Directorate-General, 2001, working document, Risk Management Tools for EU Agriculture with a special focus on insurance.
133.EUROPEAN COMMISSION, 2001.Risk Management Tools for EU Agriculture with a special focus on insurance.
134.Falatoonzadeh, H., J.Conner, and R.Pope.Risk Management Strategies to Reduce Net Income Variability for Farmers.Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics.1985 (17): 117-130.
135.Falatoonzadeh, H., J.Conner, and R.Pope, 1985.Risk Management Strategies to Reduce Net Income Variability for Farmers.Southern Journal of cultural Economics.1985 (17):117-130.
136.FAO,2006.The State of Food and Agriculture in Asia and the Pacific .2006 137.Gardner, B.Causes of U.S .Farm Commodity Programs.Journal of Political Economy .1987(75): 290-310.
138.Hardaker, J.B., Huirne, R.B.M.and Anderson, J.R.(1997), Coping with Risk in Agriculture, CAB International, Wallingford.
139.Hardaker, J.B., R.B.M.Hiurne, J.R.Anderson&Gudbr& Lien ,2004.Coping with Risk in Agriculture [M].CAB International.Oxfordshire: CBAI Publishing.
140.Harwood, J.(2000), Futures Markets and Risk Management: A U.S.Presentation at the OECD Workshop on Income Risk Management, Paris.
141.Howard R.Rosenberg, 1999.Recognizing and Managing Risks In Ag Labor Management,Labor Management Decisions, Volume 8, Number 1, Winter-Spring 1999
142.Holly W, Steven D.Hanson, etc, 1998.The erects of crop yield insurance designs on farmer participation and welfare.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.11:643-649.
143.J.E.Stiglitz,"Aggregate Land Rents,Expenditure on Public Goods, and optimal City Size[J],"Quarterly Journal of Economics,XCⅢ(4)
144.J.Roy Black, barry J.Barnett, and YingYao Hu, 1993 Cooperatives and capital markets: the case of minesota-dakota sugar cooperatives.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1999(5): 1240-1246.
145.James B.Bittman, 2001,Trading and Hedging with Agricultural Futures and Options, USA.146.James D.Johnson and Sara D.Short, 1983.Commodity programs: who has received the enefits?.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1983(11): 912-920.
147.Jeffer R.Williams Gordon L.Carriker, Art Barnaby and Jayson K.Harper, 1993.Crop insurance and disaster assistance designs for wheat and grain sorghum American Journal of Agricutural Economics.1993 (5): 435-447.
148.Jeffrey R.Stokes, William I.Nayda, and Burton C.English.1997, The cing of revenue assurance.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1997(5): 439-45 L
149.Jerry R .Skees.Agricultural Risk Management or Income Enhancement? Regulation 35 Volume 22, No.1
150.Jerry R.Skees, 2000, Agricultural Insurance Programs: Challenges and Lessons Learned,OECD, Paris.
151.Jerry R.Skees, J.Roy Black J.Bamett.Designing and rating an area yield crop insurance confront.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1997(5):430—438.
152.Jerry R.Skees.AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE PROGRAMS CHALLENGES AND LESSONS LEARNED, 15-16 May 2000
153.John K.Horowitz and Erik Lichtenberg.Insurance, moral hazard, and chemical use in agriculture.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1993(11): 926-935.
154.Joseph A.Atwood, Myles J.Watts, and Alan E.Baquet.An examination of the effects of price supports and federal crop insurance upon the economic growth, capital structure, and financial survival of wheat growers in the northern high plains.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1996 (2): 212-224.
155.Jun Jie Wu.Crop insurance, acreage decisions, and non point-source pollution.American Journal of Agricutural Economics.1999(5): 305-320.
156.Keith H.Coble, Thomas O.Knight, Rulon D.Pope, and Jeiery R.Williams.Modeling farm-level crop insurance demand with panel data.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1996(5): 439-447.
157.Keith H.Coble, Thomas O.Knight.An expected-indemnity approach to the measurement of moral hazard in crop insurance.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1997 (2):216-226.
158.Kenneth D.Ackerman.Agricultural Risk Protection Act 2000:The New Crop Insurance Reforms Brief Outline, June 20, 2000
159.Kramer, R Federal Crop Insurance: 1938 1982.Agricultural History 1983(57): 181-200.
160.Larson Don ,Varangis Panos, Yabuki Nanae: Commodity Risk Management.Paper prepared for the Roundtable Discunssion on New Approaches to Commodity Price Risk Management in Development Countries, Washington.DC, 1998, p20-21.
161.Lewis, CM.and P.O.Davis.Capital Market Instruments for Financing Catastrophe Risk:New Directions.Journal of Insurance Regulation.1998(17):110-133.
162.Mae Siffin, 1997, A Brief Introduction to Hedging with Futures and Options.163.Mahul.O.Optimum Crop Insurance under Joint Yeld and Price Risk.Journal of Risk Insurance .2000(3):109-122.
164.Mario J.Miranda and Joseph W.Glauber.Systemic risk,— , and the failture crop insurance markets.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1997(2): 205-210.
165.Mario, M, Dmitry, V.Innovations in agricultural natural disaster insurance [J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics.2001(8):650-655.
166.Mario.J.Miranda and Peter C Helmberger.The effects of commodity price stabilization programs.American Economic Review 1988(3):46-58.
167.Mark R.Manfredo and Raymond M.Leuthold.Agricultural Applications of Value-at-Risk Analysis:A Perspective, OFOR Paper Number 98-04,May 1998
168.Martial Guinvarc'h, Jean Cordier and Jacques Janssen, 2003, Management of Agricultural Crop Insurance Contracts: A Theoretical Strategy.
169.Michael T.Belongia.Agricultural price supports and cost of production: comment.American Journal ofAgricultural Economics.1983(8):620-621.
170.Miller, TA.Risk Management and Risk Preferences in Agriculture: Discussion[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1979( 12)
171.Miranda Mario J.and Joseph W.Glauber.Systemic Risk, Reinsurance and the Failure of Crop Insurance Markets [J].American Journal of Agriculture Economics, p209～212,1997(2).
172.Monke, J., and R.Durst.Tax Deferred Savings Accounts for Farmers: A Potential Risk Management Tool.Agricultural Outlook.1999(5):22-24.
173.Nicholas E.Piggott, George A.Shumaker, Charles E.Curtis, jr, 2003, working draft, Grain Marketing and Analysis of Basis and Risk Management Strategies for Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina.
174.Olivier Mahul and Brian D.Wright, 2000, Designing Optimal Crop Revenue Insurance, International food and Agribusiness Management Association 10th World Food and Agribusiness Congress, June 24-28.
175.Olivier MAHUL, Brian D.WRIGHT.Designing Optimal Crop Revenue Insurance,International Food and Agribusiness Management Association 10th World Food and Agribusiness Congress,June 24-28,2000
176.Olivier Mahul.Optimum area yield crop insurance.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1999 (8):75-82.
177.Olivier Mahul.Managing catastrophic through insurance and securitization [J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics.2001 (8): 656-661.
178.Peter C timmer,1997.Farmers and markets: the political economy of paradigms.American Journal of A 幼 cultural Economics.5: 621-627.
179.Priest, CxL.The Government, the Market, and the Problem of Catastrophic Loss.Journal of Risk and Uncertainty .1996(12):219-237.
180.R.W.Hutchinson and D.G.Mckillop.Risk analysis with single-index portfolio models: an application to farm planning: comment.American Journal ofAgricultural Economics.1988(2):192-194.
181.Randall A.Kramer.Reexamining agricultural policy: selected issues and alternatives.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1986(12): 1088-1094.
182.Robert Cx Chambers.Risk in agricultural production: discussion.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1983(12): 1114-1115.
183.Robert G.Chambers and William E.Foster.Participation in the farmer-owned reserve program: a discrete choice model.American Journal ofAgricultural Economics.1983(2):120-124.
184.Robert J.Tosterud.Commodity programs: discussion.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1983 (12): 932-933.
185.Robert P.King and George E.Oamek.Risk management by Colorado dryland wheat farmers and the elimination of the disaster assistance program.American Journal of A cultural Economics.1983(5): 247-255.
186.Schroeder, T.C., J.L.Parecll, T.L.Karstens, and K.C.Dhyvetter, Perceptions of Marketing Snomics, 1998
187.Shaik Saleem, and Joseph Atwood.Estimating the Demand of Crop Insurance and Supply for Indemnity Payments [Z], Selected Paper of American Agriculture Economics Association Meetings, P1～12, 2000.
188.Shaik Saleem, and Joseph Atwood.Estimating the demand of crop insurance and supply for indemnity payments[z].Selected Paper of American Agriculture Economics Association Meetings, P1-13, 2002.
189.Stasko, G.F., Marketing Grain,and Livestock, IA:Iowa State University Press, 1997 190.Stiglitz, J.and A.Weiss, Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information[J],American Economic Review 71:393 -410,1981.
191.Stiglitz, J.and A.Weiss, Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information[J],American Economic Review 71:393 -410,1981.
192.Stiglitz, J.Markets, Market Failures, and Development[J], American Economic Review 79:197-203,1989.
193.Stiglitz, J.Markets, Market Failures, and Development[J], American Economic Review 79:197-203,1989.
194.Susan E.Offutt.Agricultural policy: where do we go from here? Discussion.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1986(12): 1109-1112.
195.Syed M.Ahsan, Ali A.G.AH, and N.John Kurian.Toward a theory of agricultural insurance.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1982(8): 520-521.
196.Thomas A.Garrett, Maria I.Marshall, Thomas L.Marsh.Political Allocation of Agriculture Disaster Payments in the 1990s, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST.LOUIS, Revised November 2003, March 2003
197.Turvey, C, and H.C.Driver.Systematic Risk and Nonsystematic Risk in Agriculture.Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics .1987(35):387-401.
198.Turvey, C.An Economic Analysis of Alternative Farm Revenue Insurance Policies.Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics.1992(40):403-426.
199.Turvey, C.An Economic Analysis of Alternative Farm Revenue Insurance Policies.Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics.1992(40):403-426.
200.Turvey, C.G and R.Romain.Using U.S.BFP/CIassⅢ futures contracts in Risk Reduction Strategies for Subclasses Sa and Sb Milk for Further Processors.Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2000 (4)
201.UNCTAD secretariat, 2002, Farmers and Farmers' Associations in Developing Countries and Their Use of Modern Financial Instruments.
202.V Kerry Smith and William H.Desvousges.Risk perception, learning, and individual behavior.American Journal of A 幼 cultural Economics.1988 (12):1113-1117.
203.Vincent H.Smith and Alan E.Baquet.The demand for multiple peril crop insurance:evidence from Montana wheat farms.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1996(2):189-201.
204.Vincent H.Smith and Barry k.Goodwin, 1996.Crop insurance, moral hazard, and agricultural chemical use.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.5:428-438.
205.Viswanath Tirupattur, Robert J.Hauser and Nabil M.Chaherli, 1996, Crop Yield and Price Distributional Effects on Revenue Hedging, OFOR Paper.
206.Viswanathi T, Robert J.Hauser, Nabil M.Chaherli.Crop Yield and Price Distributional Effects on Revenue Hedging, OFOR Paper Number 96-05,December 1996
207.Wayne D.Purcell and Stephen R.Koontz..Agricultural Futures and Options: Principles and Strategies, Second Edition, 1999.Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.
208.Willard W.Cochrane.The need to rethink agricultural policy in genera[and to perform some radical surgery on commodity programs in particular.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1985(12): 1002-1019.
209.Williams.J.R., J.K.Harper, and CzA.Barnaby.Government.Program Impacts on the Selection of Crop Insurance in Northeastern Kansas.North Central Journal of Agricultural economics.1990(20):207-221.
[3]资料来源:中国人民共和国国家统计局网站;联合国粮农组织主编的《粮农展望》,2007年11月出版。
[4]刘金霞,农业风险管理理论方法及其应用研究[D],天津大学,2004年12月
[5]刘晶,我国农产品价格风险及其管理研究[D],山东农业大学,2005年5月
1.《2004年全球经济展望》编写组[M],中国财政经济出版社,2004。
2.H·范里安.微观经济学:现代观点[M],上海:上海人民出版社,2000。
3.P·R·克鲁格曼,M·奥勃斯弗尔德.国际经济学[M],北京:人民大学出版社,2001。
4.彼得·圣吉.第五项修炼——学习型组织的艺术与实务[M],上海:上海三联书店,1994。
5.曹锦清:黄河边的中国[M],上海,上海文艺出版社,2003。
6.陈传波,丁世军:中国小农户的风险及风险管理研究[M],北京,中国财政经济出版社,2005。
7.郭熙保:农业发展论[M],武汉,武汉大学出版社,1995。
8.何广文:农村金融与信贷政策[M],中国农业出版社,2001。
9.黎雨:中国粮食流通体制改革指导全书(MD),北京,中国大地出版社,1999。
10.李经谋,童宛生:中国期货市场运行机制[M],中国财政经济出版社,1997。
11.李一智.期货与期权教[M],北京:清华大学出版社,2003。
12.厉以宁,秦宛顺:现代西方经济学概论[M],北京,北京大学出版社,1992。
13.联合国粮农组织:2004年农产品市场报告[M],2004。
14.联合国粮农组织主编,粮农展望[M],2007。
15.陆学艺主编.当代中国社会阶层研究报告[M],北京:社会科学文献出版社,2002。
16.木厚大辅:期货操作学[M],北京,北京教育科学出版社1993,中文1版。
17.牛若峰:农业产业一体化经营的理论与实践[M],中国农业科技出版社,1998。
18.农业部:2001年中国农业发展报告[M],北京,中国农业出版社,2001。
19.农业部软科学委员会办公室:农民收入与劳动力转移[M],北京,中国农业出版社,2001。
20.史清琪,赵经彻:中国产业发展报告[M],北京,中国轻工业出版社,2001。
21.苏东水:产业经济学[M],北京,高等教育出版社,2000。
22.孙祁祥.保险学[M],北京:北京大学出版社,2003。
23.陶排等:期货经济学教程[M],上海,商务印书馆,2002。
24.王春峰:金融市场风险管理,天津大学出版社,2001。
25.王国敏:中国农业风险保障体系建设研究[M],成都,四川大学出版社,1997。
26.威廉.格罗斯曼,常青:期货市场的理论政策与管理[M],济南:山东人民出版社,1992。
27.沃尔特·W·威尔科克斯著,美国农业经济学[M],商务印书馆,1987。
28.夏永祥,赵文娟,陈雄伟:农民收入、农民负担与结构调整[M],北京,中国农业出版社,2002。
29.易法海:中国农产品价格学,[N]北京,北京农业大学出版社,1990。
30.约翰.赫尔.期货期权入门[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2001年。
31.张维迎.博弈论与信息经济学.上海:上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,2000。
32.张元红,马忠富:当代农村金融发展的理论与实践[M],南昌:江西人民出版社,2002。
33.中国农业保险和农村社会保障制度研究[M],北京:首都经济贸易大学出版社,2002。
34.中国证券监督管理委员会:2006年中国证券期货统计年鉴[M],学林出版社,2006。
35.冯冠胜:农业风险管理中政府介入问题研究--理论、方式与政策选择[D],浙江大学博 士学位论文,2004年4月1日。
36.冯琳:我国农产品价格风险管理研究[D],吉林大学硕士论文,2005年5月。
37.甘正在:农产品期货市场经济功能分析[D],中国社会科学院博士论文,2003年。
38.郭科:中国农产品期货市场功能与作用研究[D],中国农业科学院博士论文,2004年9月。
39.何常青:农业订单及其风险规避研究[D],吉林大学硕士论文,2006年5月。
40.何忠伟:中国农业补贴政策的效果与体系研究[D],中国农业科学院博士论文,2005年6月。
41.黄民礼:我国农业产业化中的订单农业模式研究[D],东北财经大学硕士论文,2004年12月。
42.姜楠:农产品价格政策的经济分析[D],沈阳农业大学博士论文,2006年06月10日。
43.雷建:我国农业保险发展模式探讨[D],四川大学硕士论文,2005年4月30日。
44.刘金霞,农业风险管理理论方法及其应用研究[D],天津大学,2004年。
45.刘晶:我国农产品价格风险及其管理研究[D],山东农业大学硕士论文,2005年5月。
46.肖勇:我国农业保险经营模式研究[D],湖南农业大学硕士论文,2003年11月。
47.张一民:我国农产品期货市场发展问题研究[D],东北财经大学,2002年2月。
48.Avishay,B.Monika,H:改进发展中国家的农村金融[J],国际货币基金组织和世界银行季刊,1991(1)。
49.安乔治、赵向鸿:农产品价格政策,中国农业信息快讯,2002(3)。
50.曹锟生,邓晶:发展中国家的农产品价格政策比较研究[J],商业研究,2001(06)。
51.陈传波:农户风险与脆弱性:一个分析框架及贫困地区的经验,农业经济问题,2005(8)。
52.陈克文:论风险及其与信息和不确定性的关系[J],系统辩证学学报,1998(1)。
53.陈昆玉、曾丽萍,基于人工神经网络的企业营销风险预警[J],重庆邮电学院学报(社会科学版),2004(5)。
54.陈来生、霍学喜、崔彬,WTO框架下我国农业经营风险和规避对策,农业现代化研究[J],2003(5)。
55.陈孝兵:市场失效下的政府行为[J],财经科学,1997(3)。
56.陈新军等,海洋渔业可持续利用预警系统的初步研究[J],上海水产大学学报,2001(1)。
57.邓大才:粮食流通制度变迁的路径依赖与创新选择,转引白上海法律与经济研究所网,2003。
58.丁士军,陈传波,农户风险处理策略分析[J],农业现代化研究,2001(11)。
59.丁义明,方福康:风险概念分析[J],系统工程学报,2001(10)。
60.董根泰,部分国家农产品价格政策支持研究[J],统计研究,2004(11)。
61.董智汉,建立我国农业风险管理体系[J],中南财经大学学报,1999(2)。
62.董智汉:建立我国农业风险管理体系[J],中南财经大学学报,1999(2)。
63.杜晓君、吕宏等.农产品贸易自由化与我国农业发展[J].农业现代化研究,1988(7)。
64.杜晓山:农村金融体系框架、农村信用社改革和小额贷款[J],中国农村经济,2002(8)。
65.杜彦坤:国家储备粮管理体制的国际比较[J],农业经济问题,2004(10)。
66.冯青松:美国、欧盟、日本农业政策的比较研究及启示[J],世界农业,2004(6)。
67.甘正在:期货市场与国有农场价格风险管理[J],中国农垦经济,2003(4)。
68.高志杰、罗剑朝,发达国家农产品期权市场发展规律及其启示[J],中国农业大学学报(社会科学版),2006(3)。
69.桂红,浅谈农产品市场风险防御[J],广西西农村经济,1992(2)。
70.郭芳:中国农产品收购价格、农业灾害与农产品产量波动分析[J],西南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2002(1)。
71.韩宏华:我国农产品价格政策的目标及措施分析[J],江西农业大学学报,2001(3)。
72.胡江艳,蔡根女,市场经济下的农业风险及对策[J],农业现代化研究,1995(11)。
73.胡江艳、蔡根女:市场经济下的农业风险及对策[J],农业现代化研究,1995(4)。
74.黄洁,丁士军:印度农业风险及应对策略,世界农业,2003(1)。
75.黄祖辉,徐旭初,冯冠胜,农业专业组织发展的影响因素分析-对浙江.农民专业合作组织发展现状的探讨[J],中国农业经济问题,2002(3)。
76.姜楠,方天堃,聂凤英:开放经济体系下汇率变动对农产品价格的影响[J],农业技术经济,2006(5)。
77.金俐:市场失灵:传统分析与现代解释[J],上海大学学报(社会科学版),2002(6)。
78.荆林波,现货市场发育与期货市场发展的相关性-中国农产品期货发展有关问题的探讨[J],中国农村经济,1999(6)。
79.柯炳生:美国新农业法案的主要内容与影响分析[J],中国农村研究,2002(16)。
80.柯柄生:我国近年来衣产品价格变动与政策改革分析[J],经济纵横,1995(2)。
81.柯炳生:我国农产品“买难”、“卖难”交替发生的深层次原因及对策研究[J],农村经济文摘,1999(6)。
82.冷崇总,发展订单农业的思考[J],宏观经济管理,2002(5)。
83.冷淑莲,江野军,冷崇总:关于价格传导机制的分析,福建物价,2004(5)。
84.李桂红:浅谈农产品市场风险防御[J],广西农村经济,1992(2)。
85.李会敏,国涓:农产品价格波动与通货膨胀关系的实证分析[J],辽宁经济,2005(5)。
86.李建平:建立我国农产品价格支持体系的构想[J],价格理论与实践,1996(3)。
87.李敬、潘久政:农产品价格管制对农民收入增长的实证研究[J],新疆农垦经济,2003(6)。
88.李坤民:美国期货市场的发展特点及对我国的启示[J],山东经济,1995(4)。
89.李瑞锋,肖海峰:欧盟、美国和中国的农民直接补贴政策比较研究[J],世界经济研究,2006(7)。
90.刘晶、葛颜祥等.我国农产品价格风险及其防范研究[J],农业现代化研究,2004(6)。
91.陆学艺,农村发展新阶段的新形势和新任务[J],中国农村经济,2000年(6)。
92.聂荣,钱克明,潘德惠,基于阶跃_扩散过程的农业期权定价及订单农业合约[J],数量经济技术经济研究,2004(10)。
93.史清华,姚建民,农业风险管理模式的评析与选择[J],农业经济,1994(2)。
94.孙良媛,论市场经济条件下的农业风险[J],广东社会科学,2001(3)。
95.孙良媛,农业产业化的经营风险与风险控制[J],华南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2003(2)。
96.孙良媛,徐小怡,广东渔业保险发展:问题与对策[J],华南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2008(4)。
97.孙良媛,转型期农业风险的特点与风险管理[J],农业经济问题,2001(8)。
98.王福林,论我国粮食生产者的价格风险及其影响[J],农业技术经济,1995(6)。
99.王红,柯炳繁,美国农业风险和风险管理[J],农业经济问题,1999(10)。
100.王吉恒,王新利.农产品市场风险与市场预测研究[J].农业技术经济,2003(3)。
101.卫龙宝,许卫良,开放市场条件下粮食生产者价格风险的管理手段与选择,农业经济问题[J],2003(3)。
102.熊存开,国外农业风险管理研究[J],农业经济问题,1994(1)。
103.薛昭胜,期权理论对订单农业的指导与应用[J],中国农村经济,2001(2)。
104.杨卫路,要加快建立粮食风险管理与风险机制[J],中国粮食经济,2001(1)。
105.钟思远,农产品期货市场对农产品价格的调节作用[J],天府新论,2002(6)。
106.庄丽娟.我国农业产业化经营中利益分配的制度分析[J],农业经济问题,2000,(4)。
107.Adams,Dale W.2002,Filling the Deposit Gap in Microfinanee[R].Paper for the Best Practices in Savings Mobilization Conference,Washington,DC.
108.Alberto V and William Foster,2003.Special Safeguards for Developing Country Agriculture in WTO Negotiations.7 May.
109.Anning Wei and Raymond M.Leuthold,1998.Long Agricultural Futures Prices:ARCH,Long Memory,or Chaos Processes? OFOR Paper Number 98-03,May
110.Anning W and Raymond M.Leuthold,1998.Long Agricultural Futures Prices:ARCH,Long Memory,or Chaos Processes?OFOR Paper.(3)
111.Axel,F.A.Adam-M(?)uller,Kit Pong Wong,2001.Restricted Export Flexibility and Risk Management with Options and Futures,July 2.
112.Baquet,A.E.,and J.Skees,1994.Group Risk Plan Insurance:An Alternative Management Tool for Farmers.Choices.1:25-28.
113.Barnett.B.J,1999.U.S.Federal Natural Disaster Assistance Policy.Journal of Disaster Studies,Policy and Management.23:139-155.
114.Barry,K.Goodwin,2001.Problems with market insurance in agriculture.American Journal Of Agricultural Economics.8:643-649.
115.Beck,Stacie,1993.A rational expectations model of time varying risk premia in commodities futures markets:theory and evidence[J].International Economic review,34:149-168.
116.Beverly,F,1990.Agricultural Risk Management,Boulder,Colorado:Lynne Rienner Publisher,Inc..
117.Bharat Ramaswami,1993.Supply response to agricultural insurance:risk reduction and moral hazard effects.American Journal of A cultural Economics.11:914-925.
118.Blake,K.Bennett,2003.Evaluation of Cotton Put Options as a Price Risk Management Tool,The Journal of Cotton Science 7:39-44
119.Blake,K.Bennett,2003,Evaluation of Cotton Put Options as a Price Risk Management Tool,The Journal of Cotton Science 7:39-44.
120.Boggess,W K.Amman,and C Hanson,1985.Importance,Causes,and Management Response to Farm risks.Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics 17:105-116.
121.Braga,F,1996.Over-the-Counter Derivatives and Price Management in a Post-Tripartite Environment:The Case of Cattle and Hogs.Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics,44(4)
122.Carl H.Nelson and Edna T.loehman,1987.Further toward a theory of agricultural insurance.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.8:523-531.
123.Communities(2000),The Use of Futures in Agricultural Risk Management,Doc.
124.David,B,1996.Safety-first criteria and their measures of risk.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.2:225-235.
125.Directorate-General Economic and Financial Affairs,Commission of the European
126.Dismukes, R.and Glauber, J.2000, Crop & Revenue Insurance:Preminm Discounts Attractive to Producers, in: Agricultural Outlook, United States Department of Agriculture,Economic Research Service, March 2000, Washington D.C.
127.Dismukes,R,1999.Recent Developments in Crop and Revenue Insurance.Agricultural Outlook .5:16-21.
128.Douglas W.allen and Dean Lueck,1995.Risk preferences the economics of contracts.The American Economic Review
129.Duncan, Richard,1999.Agricultural Futures And Options: Understanding And Implementing Trades On The North American And European Markets
130.Eidman, V .Planning an Integrated Approach to Farm Risk Management.Journal.Of Agribusiness Management.1985(3): 11-16.
131.Erin, B,2001 Risk Management: Pricing, Insurance, Guarantees-The Use of Price and Weather Risk Management Instruments.The World Bank .2001.
132.European Commission Agriculture Directorate-General, 2001, working document, Risk Management Tools for EU Agriculture with a special focus on insurance.
133.EUROPEAN COMMISSION, 2001.Risk Management Tools for EU Agriculture with a special focus on insurance.
134.Falatoonzadeh, H., J.Conner, and R.Pope.Risk Management Strategies to Reduce Net Income Variability for Farmers.Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics.1985 (17): 117-130.
135.Falatoonzadeh, H., J.Conner, and R.Pope, 1985.Risk Management Strategies to Reduce Net Income Variability for Farmers.Southern Journal of cultural Economics.1985 (17):117-130.
136.FAO,2006.The State of Food and Agriculture in Asia and the Pacific .2006 137.Gardner, B.Causes of U.S .Farm Commodity Programs.Journal of Political Economy .1987(75): 290-310.
138.Hardaker, J.B., Huirne, R.B.M.and Anderson, J.R.(1997), Coping with Risk in Agriculture, CAB International, Wallingford.
139.Hardaker, J.B., R.B.M.Hiurne, J.R.Anderson&Gudbr& Lien ,2004.Coping with Risk in Agriculture [M].CAB International.Oxfordshire: CBAI Publishing.
140.Harwood, J.(2000), Futures Markets and Risk Management: A U.S.Presentation at the OECD Workshop on Income Risk Management, Paris.
141.Howard R.Rosenberg, 1999.Recognizing and Managing Risks In Ag Labor Management,Labor Management Decisions, Volume 8, Number 1, Winter-Spring 1999
142.Holly W, Steven D.Hanson, etc, 1998.The erects of crop yield insurance designs on farmer participation and welfare.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.11:643-649.
143.J.E.Stiglitz,"Aggregate Land Rents,Expenditure on Public Goods, and optimal City Size[J],"Quarterly Journal of Economics,XCⅢ(4)
144.J.Roy Black, barry J.Barnett, and YingYao Hu, 1993 Cooperatives and capital markets: the case of minesota-dakota sugar cooperatives.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1999(5): 1240-1246.
145.James B.Bittman, 2001,Trading and Hedging with Agricultural Futures and Options, USA.146.James D.Johnson and Sara D.Short, 1983.Commodity programs: who has received the enefits?.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1983(11): 912-920.
147.Jeffer R.Williams Gordon L.Carriker, Art Barnaby and Jayson K.Harper, 1993.Crop insurance and disaster assistance designs for wheat and grain sorghum American Journal of Agricutural Economics.1993 (5): 435-447.
148.Jeffrey R.Stokes, William I.Nayda, and Burton C.English.1997, The cing of revenue assurance.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1997(5): 439-45 L
149.Jerry R .Skees.Agricultural Risk Management or Income Enhancement? Regulation 35 Volume 22, No.1
150.Jerry R.Skees, 2000, Agricultural Insurance Programs: Challenges and Lessons Learned,OECD, Paris.
151.Jerry R.Skees, J.Roy Black J.Bamett.Designing and rating an area yield crop insurance confront.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1997(5):430—438.
152.Jerry R.Skees.AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE PROGRAMS CHALLENGES AND LESSONS LEARNED, 15-16 May 2000
153.John K.Horowitz and Erik Lichtenberg.Insurance, moral hazard, and chemical use in agriculture.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1993(11): 926-935.
154.Joseph A.Atwood, Myles J.Watts, and Alan E.Baquet.An examination of the effects of price supports and federal crop insurance upon the economic growth, capital structure, and financial survival of wheat growers in the northern high plains.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1996 (2): 212-224.
155.Jun Jie Wu.Crop insurance, acreage decisions, and non point-source pollution.American Journal of Agricutural Economics.1999(5): 305-320.
156.Keith H.Coble, Thomas O.Knight, Rulon D.Pope, and Jeiery R.Williams.Modeling farm-level crop insurance demand with panel data.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1996(5): 439-447.
157.Keith H.Coble, Thomas O.Knight.An expected-indemnity approach to the measurement of moral hazard in crop insurance.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1997 (2):216-226.
158.Kenneth D.Ackerman.Agricultural Risk Protection Act 2000:The New Crop Insurance Reforms Brief Outline, June 20, 2000
159.Kramer, R Federal Crop Insurance: 1938 1982.Agricultural History 1983(57): 181-200.
160.Larson Don ,Varangis Panos, Yabuki Nanae: Commodity Risk Management.Paper prepared for the Roundtable Discunssion on New Approaches to Commodity Price Risk Management in Development Countries, Washington.DC, 1998, p20-21.
161.Lewis, CM.and P.O.Davis.Capital Market Instruments for Financing Catastrophe Risk:New Directions.Journal of Insurance Regulation.1998(17):110-133.
162.Mae Siffin, 1997, A Brief Introduction to Hedging with Futures and Options.163.Mahul.O.Optimum Crop Insurance under Joint Yeld and Price Risk.Journal of Risk Insurance .2000(3):109-122.
164.Mario J.Miranda and Joseph W.Glauber.Systemic risk,— , and the failture crop insurance markets.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1997(2): 205-210.
165.Mario, M, Dmitry, V.Innovations in agricultural natural disaster insurance [J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics.2001(8):650-655.
166.Mario.J.Miranda and Peter C Helmberger.The effects of commodity price stabilization programs.American Economic Review 1988(3):46-58.
167.Mark R.Manfredo and Raymond M.Leuthold.Agricultural Applications of Value-at-Risk Analysis:A Perspective, OFOR Paper Number 98-04,May 1998
168.Martial Guinvarc'h, Jean Cordier and Jacques Janssen, 2003, Management of Agricultural Crop Insurance Contracts: A Theoretical Strategy.
169.Michael T.Belongia.Agricultural price supports and cost of production: comment.American Journal ofAgricultural Economics.1983(8):620-621.
170.Miller, TA.Risk Management and Risk Preferences in Agriculture: Discussion[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1979( 12)
171.Miranda Mario J.and Joseph W.Glauber.Systemic Risk, Reinsurance and the Failure of Crop Insurance Markets [J].American Journal of Agriculture Economics, p209～212,1997(2).
172.Monke, J., and R.Durst.Tax Deferred Savings Accounts for Farmers: A Potential Risk Management Tool.Agricultural Outlook.1999(5):22-24.
173.Nicholas E.Piggott, George A.Shumaker, Charles E.Curtis, jr, 2003, working draft, Grain Marketing and Analysis of Basis and Risk Management Strategies for Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina.
174.Olivier Mahul and Brian D.Wright, 2000, Designing Optimal Crop Revenue Insurance, International food and Agribusiness Management Association 10th World Food and Agribusiness Congress, June 24-28.
175.Olivier MAHUL, Brian D.WRIGHT.Designing Optimal Crop Revenue Insurance,International Food and Agribusiness Management Association 10th World Food and Agribusiness Congress,June 24-28,2000
176.Olivier Mahul.Optimum area yield crop insurance.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1999 (8):75-82.
177.Olivier Mahul.Managing catastrophic through insurance and securitization [J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics.2001 (8): 656-661.
178.Peter C timmer,1997.Farmers and markets: the political economy of paradigms.American Journal of A 幼 cultural Economics.5: 621-627.
179.Priest, CxL.The Government, the Market, and the Problem of Catastrophic Loss.Journal of Risk and Uncertainty .1996(12):219-237.
180.R.W.Hutchinson and D.G.Mckillop.Risk analysis with single-index portfolio models: an application to farm planning: comment.American Journal ofAgricultural Economics.1988(2):192-194.
181.Randall A.Kramer.Reexamining agricultural policy: selected issues and alternatives.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1986(12): 1088-1094.
182.Robert Cx Chambers.Risk in agricultural production: discussion.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1983(12): 1114-1115.
183.Robert G.Chambers and William E.Foster.Participation in the farmer-owned reserve program: a discrete choice model.American Journal ofAgricultural Economics.1983(2):120-124.
184.Robert J.Tosterud.Commodity programs: discussion.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1983 (12): 932-933.
185.Robert P.King and George E.Oamek.Risk management by Colorado dryland wheat farmers and the elimination of the disaster assistance program.American Journal of A cultural Economics.1983(5): 247-255.
186.Schroeder, T.C., J.L.Parecll, T.L.Karstens, and K.C.Dhyvetter, Perceptions of Marketing Snomics, 1998
187.Shaik Saleem, and Joseph Atwood.Estimating the Demand of Crop Insurance and Supply for Indemnity Payments [Z], Selected Paper of American Agriculture Economics Association Meetings, P1～12, 2000.
188.Shaik Saleem, and Joseph Atwood.Estimating the demand of crop insurance and supply for indemnity payments[z].Selected Paper of American Agriculture Economics Association Meetings, P1-13, 2002.
189.Stasko, G.F., Marketing Grain,and Livestock, IA:Iowa State University Press, 1997 190.Stiglitz, J.and A.Weiss, Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information[J],American Economic Review 71:393 -410,1981.
191.Stiglitz, J.and A.Weiss, Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information[J],American Economic Review 71:393 -410,1981.
192.Stiglitz, J.Markets, Market Failures, and Development[J], American Economic Review 79:197-203,1989.
193.Stiglitz, J.Markets, Market Failures, and Development[J], American Economic Review 79:197-203,1989.
194.Susan E.Offutt.Agricultural policy: where do we go from here? Discussion.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1986(12): 1109-1112.
195.Syed M.Ahsan, Ali A.G.AH, and N.John Kurian.Toward a theory of agricultural insurance.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1982(8): 520-521.
196.Thomas A.Garrett, Maria I.Marshall, Thomas L.Marsh.Political Allocation of Agriculture Disaster Payments in the 1990s, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST.LOUIS, Revised November 2003, March 2003
197.Turvey, C, and H.C.Driver.Systematic Risk and Nonsystematic Risk in Agriculture.Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics .1987(35):387-401.
198.Turvey, C.An Economic Analysis of Alternative Farm Revenue Insurance Policies.Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics.1992(40):403-426.
199.Turvey, C.An Economic Analysis of Alternative Farm Revenue Insurance Policies.Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics.1992(40):403-426.
200.Turvey, C.G and R.Romain.Using U.S.BFP/CIassⅢ futures contracts in Risk Reduction Strategies for Subclasses Sa and Sb Milk for Further Processors.Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2000 (4)
201.UNCTAD secretariat, 2002, Farmers and Farmers' Associations in Developing Countries and Their Use of Modern Financial Instruments.
202.V Kerry Smith and William H.Desvousges.Risk perception, learning, and individual behavior.American Journal of A 幼 cultural Economics.1988 (12):1113-1117.
203.Vincent H.Smith and Alan E.Baquet.The demand for multiple peril crop insurance:evidence from Montana wheat farms.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1996(2):189-201.
204.Vincent H.Smith and Barry k.Goodwin, 1996.Crop insurance, moral hazard, and agricultural chemical use.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.5:428-438.
205.Viswanath Tirupattur, Robert J.Hauser and Nabil M.Chaherli, 1996, Crop Yield and Price Distributional Effects on Revenue Hedging, OFOR Paper.
206.Viswanathi T, Robert J.Hauser, Nabil M.Chaherli.Crop Yield and Price Distributional Effects on Revenue Hedging, OFOR Paper Number 96-05,December 1996
207.Wayne D.Purcell and Stephen R.Koontz..Agricultural Futures and Options: Principles and Strategies, Second Edition, 1999.Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.
208.Willard W.Cochrane.The need to rethink agricultural policy in genera[and to perform some radical surgery on commodity programs in particular.American Journal of Agricultural Economics.1985(12): 1002-1019.
209.Williams.J.R., J.K.Harper, and CzA.Barnaby.Government.Program Impacts on the Selection of Crop Insurance in Northeastern Kansas.North Central Journal of Agricultural economics.1990(20):207-221.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |