基于不确定性理论的尾矿坝稳定性分析及综合评价研究
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摘要
尾矿库是我国重大危险源的一种类型,尾矿库溃坝是矿山开采引发灾害的最主要形式的之一,尾矿坝是否稳定严重影响着矿山人民生命及财产安全,鉴于此,对尾矿坝稳定性的研究意义重大。本文以作者近年负责和参与的多个尾矿库安全评价项目及湖南省安全科技重点项目“尾矿库安全评价理论与方法研究”(HN08-27)为依托,应用统计学理论、灰色理论、神经网络理论、可靠度理论、模糊数学、未确知数学理论等不确定性理论,在深入研究了各种尾矿坝边坡稳定性分析方法的基础上,分析了浸润线的影响因素,建立了尾矿坝浸润线计算的矩阵模型;针对浸润线本身的动态可变性和不确定性提出了基于广义回归神经网络理论和灰色理论的浸润线耦合预测模型;基于可靠度理论和模糊数学理论建立了尾矿坝的模糊随机可靠度模型;系统地首次提出了尾矿坝稳定性的未确知测度综合评价模型。其主要研究成果和结论有:
1)在深入剖析尾矿坝浸润线影响因素的基础上,建立了浸润线叠加影响函数,归纳出与尾矿坝坝体特征相关的阶段影响因子,提出反映阶段影响因子的浸润线矩阵模型。运用多项式回归分析浸润线观测数据,拟合得出浸润线观测孔水位与库水位的函数曲线,求得尾矿坝浸润线矩阵。将该模型应用于衡阳某尾矿坝浸润线计算中,结果表明,本方法可用于实测浸润线数据与计算浸润线偏差较大的情况,可通过浸润线矩阵预测洪水位的浸润线,解决洪水工况下尾矿坝浸润线验算问题。
2)将浸润线时间序列通过趋势项及趋势项的随机项进行研究,应用灰色理论研究浸润线时间序列的趋势项,应用广义回归神经网络模型研究趋势项的随机项,首次建立了尾矿坝浸润线的灰色—广义回归神经网络预测耦合模型,将耦合模型应用到四川省攀枝花市某尾矿坝的工程实例中。研究表明,此耦合模型兼有灰色预测和广义回归神经网络预测的优点,既利用灰色系统理论具有所需要的样本数据少,原理简单,运算方便,预测精度高,可检验等优点,也发挥神经网络并行计算,容错能力强,自适应能力强等优点,模型既克服了原始数据少,数据波动性大对预测精度的影响,也增强了预测的自适应性。
3)传统尾矿坝稳定性计算的安全系数法没有考虑到尾矿分布以及尾矿的力学参数的随机性和不确定性,本文首次建立了尾矿坝稳定性分析的模糊随机可靠度模型。从考虑浸润线和不考虑浸润线(适用于洪水、枯坝及闭库的情形)两种工况对尾矿坝的模糊随机可靠度进行了研究,推导出了尾矿坝安全储备功能函数,构建了尾矿坝可靠度模糊随机极限状态方程,确定了目标模糊随机可靠指标。将建立的模型应用到衡阳市某尾矿库的坝体可靠度分析中,实例研究表明,本文建立的模型既考虑尾矿坝参数的模糊性、又考虑尾矿坝参数的随机性,较安全系数法及传统可靠度方法更科学合理,经进一步验证后,可以在工程实践中推广使用。
4)应用模糊数学理论和可靠度理论,研究尾矿坝的地震稳定性,系统地在尾矿坝地震稳定性研究领域提出了尾矿坝地震模糊随机可靠度计算方法。将建立的模型应用到四川省攀枝花市某尾矿库的坝体可靠度分析中,研究结果表明,与实际情况吻合良好,地震模糊随机可靠度分析模型更能真实反映地震荷载下,尾矿坝稳定的真实状况。
5)基于未确知数学理论,首次建立了尾矿坝稳定性的未确知综合评价模型,构建了尾矿坝稳定性综合评价指标体系,建立了各评价指标的未确知测度函数,并基于信息熵权理论,确定各评价指标权重,依照置信度识别准则进行尾矿坝稳定性等级判定,系统的给出了尾矿坝稳定性综合评价方法。将该模型应用于衡阳市某尾矿库的尾矿坝稳定性综合评价中,评价结果表明,该模型能解决尾矿坝稳定性综合评价中诸多因素不确定性问题,该方法科学合理,意义明确,可以在实际工程中推广应用。
Tailings pond is one of major hazard installations in China, its dam-break can bring disasters by mining and seriously influence the safety of ambient people's lives and their property, so it is urgently to study the stability of tailings dam. Through some recently safety assessment projects of tailings ponds and the key project of safety science & technology in Hunan Province (study on theory and method of safety assessment of tailings pond (HN08-27) ) which executed by the author, the statistical theory, Gray theory, Neural Network theory, Reliability theory, Fuzzy math, and Unascertained mathematical theory etc., are applied to analyze varies of method, phreatic surface Matrix Method is proposed; Focus on its own dynamic variability and uncertainty, based on general regression neural network theory and the gray theory, coupled model is establishment on the basis of reliability theory and the fuzzy theory, tailings Dam fuzzy random reliability model is also proposed; then, systematically and firstly raised unascertained measure comprehensive evaluation model of tailings dam stability. The main conclusions as follows:
1) phreatic surface is one of the most important factors to influence tailings dam security degree. Based on analysis of affecting factors of phreatic surface in tailings dam, the superimposed influence function is established, and the phreatic surface matrix prediction method is bring forward to predict the phreatic surface. According to the daily observation of phreatic surface and the water-level of ponds, the phreatic surface matrix is attained by regression analysis. Finally, a tailings dam projects in Hunan is given to illustrate stability analysis method of tailings dam based on the saturation line matrix method.
2) Due to the extremely complicated seepage boundary and dynamic changing conditions of tailings dam. In-depth analysis of factors affected tailings dam phreatic surface, phreatic surface prediction coupling model based on Generalized Regression Neural Network model (GRNN) and GM (1,1) was established. A tailings dam project is tested using this model. It shows that this coupling model the combination the advantages of both grey prediction model and GRNN, which use the both of a grey system required a sample of data small, simple principle, operator convenience, short-term forecasts of high precision, the advantages of testing can also play a nerve Network parallel computing, fault-tolerant capability and adaptive capacity, and other advantages, the model is less overcome the raw data, data volatility of the accuracy of the forecast, the forecast also enhance the adaptability.
3) The deficiencies of traditional safety factor calculation methods , including it is impossible to give practical engineering design variables accurate means, and they mean a large extent, by many objective factors or man-made role of the Impact of these effects have greater degree of ambiguity. But the damage to the dam from the safety limits of difficult to clear, reliable and failure in an intermediate between the transitional state of existence, which is a fuzzy area. Based on the above two issues resolved of the first time, this paper rely on fuzzy theory applied to the stability of the tailings dam, both consider the tailings dam destruction fuzzy, and consider the main variables and parameters of the fuzzy. The fuzzy and the randomness of the integration of tailings dam project on the fuzzy random reliability analysis methods. Results shows that the results and the actual situation in good agreement, it is more scientific and rational than dam safety factor and the traditional calculation methods, which reflect the real situation for the stability of the tailings dam and it also provide a new way to analysis stability of tailings dam.
4) Fuzzy theory and reliability theory are introduced to study the seismic stability of the tailings dam. Considered saturation line or not (for floods, dam dried and dam closed), Fuzzy random reliability model of the tailings dam has been studied systematically in the seismic stability of the tailings dam. a tailings dam earthquake fuzzy random reliability method is proposed in this e field . The establishment of the model is applied to the tailings dam reliability analysis of a tailings dam in Panzhihua City of Sichuan Province, it shows that, in line with the actual situation well and seismic fuzzy random reliability analysis model to better reflect the real seismic loading, the true stability of the tailings dam Situation.
5) Based on the unascertained mathematical theory, a tailings dam stability unascertained comprehensive evaluation model is established for the first time, a comprehensive evaluation index system is built; the evaluation of the unascertained measure function is formed. Based on the information Entropy theory, the weight of evaluation index is determined, according the confidence level criteria to determine level of stability of the tailings dam. In order to test the model, which is applied in a tailings dam in Hengyang City of Hunan Province, evaluation results show that the model can solve the factors of uncertainty Problems of evaluation, the methods is scientific and rational; it can be promoted to projects application.
1)在深入剖析尾矿坝浸润线影响因素的基础上,建立了浸润线叠加影响函数,归纳出与尾矿坝坝体特征相关的阶段影响因子,提出反映阶段影响因子的浸润线矩阵模型。运用多项式回归分析浸润线观测数据,拟合得出浸润线观测孔水位与库水位的函数曲线,求得尾矿坝浸润线矩阵。将该模型应用于衡阳某尾矿坝浸润线计算中,结果表明,本方法可用于实测浸润线数据与计算浸润线偏差较大的情况,可通过浸润线矩阵预测洪水位的浸润线,解决洪水工况下尾矿坝浸润线验算问题。
2)将浸润线时间序列通过趋势项及趋势项的随机项进行研究,应用灰色理论研究浸润线时间序列的趋势项,应用广义回归神经网络模型研究趋势项的随机项,首次建立了尾矿坝浸润线的灰色—广义回归神经网络预测耦合模型,将耦合模型应用到四川省攀枝花市某尾矿坝的工程实例中。研究表明,此耦合模型兼有灰色预测和广义回归神经网络预测的优点,既利用灰色系统理论具有所需要的样本数据少,原理简单,运算方便,预测精度高,可检验等优点,也发挥神经网络并行计算,容错能力强,自适应能力强等优点,模型既克服了原始数据少,数据波动性大对预测精度的影响,也增强了预测的自适应性。
3)传统尾矿坝稳定性计算的安全系数法没有考虑到尾矿分布以及尾矿的力学参数的随机性和不确定性,本文首次建立了尾矿坝稳定性分析的模糊随机可靠度模型。从考虑浸润线和不考虑浸润线(适用于洪水、枯坝及闭库的情形)两种工况对尾矿坝的模糊随机可靠度进行了研究,推导出了尾矿坝安全储备功能函数,构建了尾矿坝可靠度模糊随机极限状态方程,确定了目标模糊随机可靠指标。将建立的模型应用到衡阳市某尾矿库的坝体可靠度分析中,实例研究表明,本文建立的模型既考虑尾矿坝参数的模糊性、又考虑尾矿坝参数的随机性,较安全系数法及传统可靠度方法更科学合理,经进一步验证后,可以在工程实践中推广使用。
4)应用模糊数学理论和可靠度理论,研究尾矿坝的地震稳定性,系统地在尾矿坝地震稳定性研究领域提出了尾矿坝地震模糊随机可靠度计算方法。将建立的模型应用到四川省攀枝花市某尾矿库的坝体可靠度分析中,研究结果表明,与实际情况吻合良好,地震模糊随机可靠度分析模型更能真实反映地震荷载下,尾矿坝稳定的真实状况。
5)基于未确知数学理论,首次建立了尾矿坝稳定性的未确知综合评价模型,构建了尾矿坝稳定性综合评价指标体系,建立了各评价指标的未确知测度函数,并基于信息熵权理论,确定各评价指标权重,依照置信度识别准则进行尾矿坝稳定性等级判定,系统的给出了尾矿坝稳定性综合评价方法。将该模型应用于衡阳市某尾矿库的尾矿坝稳定性综合评价中,评价结果表明,该模型能解决尾矿坝稳定性综合评价中诸多因素不确定性问题,该方法科学合理,意义明确,可以在实际工程中推广应用。
Tailings pond is one of major hazard installations in China, its dam-break can bring disasters by mining and seriously influence the safety of ambient people's lives and their property, so it is urgently to study the stability of tailings dam. Through some recently safety assessment projects of tailings ponds and the key project of safety science & technology in Hunan Province (study on theory and method of safety assessment of tailings pond (HN08-27) ) which executed by the author, the statistical theory, Gray theory, Neural Network theory, Reliability theory, Fuzzy math, and Unascertained mathematical theory etc., are applied to analyze varies of method, phreatic surface Matrix Method is proposed; Focus on its own dynamic variability and uncertainty, based on general regression neural network theory and the gray theory, coupled model is establishment on the basis of reliability theory and the fuzzy theory, tailings Dam fuzzy random reliability model is also proposed; then, systematically and firstly raised unascertained measure comprehensive evaluation model of tailings dam stability. The main conclusions as follows:
1) phreatic surface is one of the most important factors to influence tailings dam security degree. Based on analysis of affecting factors of phreatic surface in tailings dam, the superimposed influence function is established, and the phreatic surface matrix prediction method is bring forward to predict the phreatic surface. According to the daily observation of phreatic surface and the water-level of ponds, the phreatic surface matrix is attained by regression analysis. Finally, a tailings dam projects in Hunan is given to illustrate stability analysis method of tailings dam based on the saturation line matrix method.
2) Due to the extremely complicated seepage boundary and dynamic changing conditions of tailings dam. In-depth analysis of factors affected tailings dam phreatic surface, phreatic surface prediction coupling model based on Generalized Regression Neural Network model (GRNN) and GM (1,1) was established. A tailings dam project is tested using this model. It shows that this coupling model the combination the advantages of both grey prediction model and GRNN, which use the both of a grey system required a sample of data small, simple principle, operator convenience, short-term forecasts of high precision, the advantages of testing can also play a nerve Network parallel computing, fault-tolerant capability and adaptive capacity, and other advantages, the model is less overcome the raw data, data volatility of the accuracy of the forecast, the forecast also enhance the adaptability.
3) The deficiencies of traditional safety factor calculation methods , including it is impossible to give practical engineering design variables accurate means, and they mean a large extent, by many objective factors or man-made role of the Impact of these effects have greater degree of ambiguity. But the damage to the dam from the safety limits of difficult to clear, reliable and failure in an intermediate between the transitional state of existence, which is a fuzzy area. Based on the above two issues resolved of the first time, this paper rely on fuzzy theory applied to the stability of the tailings dam, both consider the tailings dam destruction fuzzy, and consider the main variables and parameters of the fuzzy. The fuzzy and the randomness of the integration of tailings dam project on the fuzzy random reliability analysis methods. Results shows that the results and the actual situation in good agreement, it is more scientific and rational than dam safety factor and the traditional calculation methods, which reflect the real situation for the stability of the tailings dam and it also provide a new way to analysis stability of tailings dam.
4) Fuzzy theory and reliability theory are introduced to study the seismic stability of the tailings dam. Considered saturation line or not (for floods, dam dried and dam closed), Fuzzy random reliability model of the tailings dam has been studied systematically in the seismic stability of the tailings dam. a tailings dam earthquake fuzzy random reliability method is proposed in this e field . The establishment of the model is applied to the tailings dam reliability analysis of a tailings dam in Panzhihua City of Sichuan Province, it shows that, in line with the actual situation well and seismic fuzzy random reliability analysis model to better reflect the real seismic loading, the true stability of the tailings dam Situation.
5) Based on the unascertained mathematical theory, a tailings dam stability unascertained comprehensive evaluation model is established for the first time, a comprehensive evaluation index system is built; the evaluation of the unascertained measure function is formed. Based on the information Entropy theory, the weight of evaluation index is determined, according the confidence level criteria to determine level of stability of the tailings dam. In order to test the model, which is applied in a tailings dam in Hengyang City of Hunan Province, evaluation results show that the model can solve the factors of uncertainty Problems of evaluation, the methods is scientific and rational; it can be promoted to projects application.
引文
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