城市化进程中农民工的迁移行为模式及其决定
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摘要
从我国中长期经济和社会发展的要求来看,中国要实现2010年城镇人口比例达到50%,2020年达到60%的世界平均水平的目标,那么中国城市人口中将有一半是新进入的市民。未来城市化面临的核心问题是新进入者的适应、融和,即新进入者的市民化。而新进入者中很大一部分将是农村移民,城市化要求农民工在城市永久迁移,真正转变为市民,永久迁移是我国未来城市化发展的方向。然而,中国农民工的迁移模式与其他国家类似过程有着明显的不同,迁移是一个既有流出又有回流的过程,中国多数农民工处于侯鸟式的短期迁移过程中,由此导致的我国城市化水平较低,与工业化水平不相符。
因此,本文研究农民工的迁移行为模式及其决定,从农民工迁移全过程出发,研究迁移过程中所表现出来的主要特征,进而回答以下问题,为何农民工选择不同的迁移行为模式,为何有的农民工始终难以在城市永久迁移,而有的农民工却能够在城市定居下来,两类农民工群体间有何差别,农民工迁移行为模式的决定因素有哪些,农民工由暂时迁移转变为永久迁移的条件是什么。本研究具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。研究结论有助于促进农民工在城市的稳定定居,进而促进我国城市化的顺利快速发展,具体结论能够为政府管理决策部门提供指导和借鉴,以便针对不同迁移模式下农民工群体给出相应的管理政策与措施。
本文从农民工流动的全过程出发,构建一个基本分析框架,将农民工的迁移分为三个阶段,第一阶段是离开农村迁入城市过程,第二阶段是在城市间及职业间多次流动过程,第三阶段是停留在某城市,进而由暂时迁移转变为永久迁移过程。三个阶段全面刻画了农民工迁移的整体过程,依次对每个过程的研究可以得到上述问题的最终答案。
因此,本文的研究包括以下五部分。
第一部分,研究准备。包括第一、二、三章。第一章主要说明了本文的研究背景、研究目的意义,以及文中主要概念的界定,研究方法、基本分析框架,论文的创新点及不足;第二章,文献综述,分别就经典迁移理论和国内外现有研究成果分几个方面进行综述。可以看出关于我国农民工的相关研究已经非常丰富,很多研究的方法及结论为本文提供了指导,但也发现现有研究中很少有从农民工整体迁移过程进行全面分析的研究,也几乎没有研究将农民工按照实际的迁移行为分为暂时迁移和永久迁移,进而研究两类群体间的差异。第三章则对本文所使用的研究数据进行说明,并对数据做了基本统计分析,以便为后面的分析提供研究样本的概貌。
第二部分,农民工迁移的第一阶段——城市迁入。是论文的第四章,本章用不多的篇幅,统计分析了农民工第一次离开农村迁入城市的主要原因,第一份城市工作获得的途径以及职业类型,并对农民工第一次流入的城市类型做了分析,其结论可与后面的分析做比较。
第三部分,农民工迁移的第二阶段——城市间职业间多次流动。对应文中第五章,本章首先分析了农民工的流动次数,并采用计数模型对农民工迁入城市后又多次流动的影响因素进行了估计。结果可见,农民工的部分个人特征,以及家乡的土地数量、外出时间和是否有技术或手艺以及来源地不同,会显著影响农民工的流动次数。其次,对农民工多次流动的后果进行分析,农民工多次流动后职业声望有所提升,但提升不大,他们的人力资本随着职业变动有所增加,收入随着流动次数增加均值上升。
第四部分,农民工迁移的第三阶段——城市定居。包括第六、第七、第八和第九章。本部分是论文的重点所在。第六章从经济收益最大化理论出发,核算农民工在城市的收入和支出,并对各收入和支出分项进行统计,构建计量模型,分析影响农民工净收益的因素,结果显示男性、已婚者在年净收益增加方面具有显著优势,农民工在学子女数量与年净收益显著负相关。第七章在前述各章分析的基础上,结合文献及研究经验,用五个变量以递进的方式将农民工分为暂时迁移和永久迁移者,划分是在农民工的实际行为差异基础上做出的。在此基础上,构建联立方程,分析暂时迁移和永久迁移者在经济地位和社会地位方面的差异,结果显示,两类群体在经济地位的年消费水平和社会地位的职业声望及居住方式方面存在明显不同。第八章采用二项选择模型和二元选择模型研究农民工在意愿和实际行为两个方面由暂时迁移向永久迁移转变的条件。结果显示,除了年龄和婚姻状况两个个人特征会显著影响迁移概率外,高职业类型和拥有较强社会关系的农民工永久迁移概率会上升,帮助农民工改善居住方式,也会在意愿和实际行动上提高永久迁移概率。第九章采用案例描述方法,描写了两组典型农民工个案,分别反映暂时迁移和永久迁移农民工的具体特征。
第五部分,结论及政策含义。对应论文的第十章,主要是对本文的研究结论进行总结,并根据结论提出相应的对农民工分类管理的政策建议。
According to the request of economic and social development in middle and long term in China, half of urban population will be the new entrants. Then the urbanization level in China will reach at 50% in 2010 and at 60% in 2020 which is the world average level. The core problem of urbanization is the new entrant's adaptation and fusion, namely new entrant's citizenship. Many new entrants will be rural migrants, and urbanization requires rural-urban migrants to be permanent migrants in urban. Permanent migration will be developmental direction of urbanization in our country in the future. However, the migration pattern of Chinese rural-urban migrants is significantly different from similar processes of other countries, the migration is a process which includes both outflow and return. The majority of Chinese rural-urban migrants are in short-term migration process called "houniao style", which causes the low urbanization level of our country, and it does not match to the level of industrialization.
Therefore, this paper studys the whole process of rural-urban migrants' migration, and the main features demonstrated by the process, and then answers the following questions: why some rural-urban migrants are difficult to permanently migrate in urban all the time ,while some rural-urban migrants are able to settle down in urban, what are the differences between the two types of rural-urban migrants, as well as what are the conditions from temporary migration to permanent migration. These questions will have importantly theoretical and practical significance. Conclusions of the study promote rural-urban migrants to settle in urban stably, thereby promote China's urbanization to develop smoothly and rapidly, the policy implications provide guidance and reference for government management and decision-making departments, so the corresponding management policies and measures are given towards rural-urban migrants groups in different migration patterns.
This paper starts from the entire process of rural-urban migrants' mobility, and constructs a basic analysis frame, which divides the migration of rural-urban migrants into three stages, the first stage is the process of leaving rural into urban, the second is the process which rural-urban migrants flows for many times in inter-urban and in inter-profession, the third is to stay in a certain city and then transform from temporary migration to permanent migration. The three stages comprehensively depict the overall process of rural-urban migrants' migration. Each process is studyed, and we may obtain the answers to the above questions.
Therefore, the research of this paper includes the following five parts:
The first part is a preparation, including chapter one, two, and three. Chapter one mainly describes the background, purpose and significance, as well as definition of the key concepts in the paper , the basic analysis frame, research methods, innovation and lack ; Chapter two is a literature review, the classic migration theory and research results in domestic and foreign are respectively reviewed in some aspects. The related research of the rural-urban migrants has been already very rich, lots of research methods and conclusions provide guidance for this paper, but few of the researches conduct a comprehensive analysis from the overall migration process of rural-urban migrants, and there are merely researches which divide rural-urban migrants into temporary and permanent migration according to their actual migration behaviors, and then research the differences in the two groups.Chapter three explains the research data, and makes the basic statistics analysis for the data, in order to provide a profile of samples for the following research analysis.
The second part is the first stage of rural-urban migrants migration—moving into urban, namely chapter four. Without so much length, this part statistics and analyzes the main reasons of rural-urban migrants leaving rural into urban, the way to obtain the first urban job and occupational type, and analyzes the type of urban where the rural-urban migrants move for the first time. Its conclusions can be compared with the following analysis.
The third part is the second stage of the rural-urban migrants migration—mobility in inter-urban and in inter-occupations,namely Chapter five. First,this chapter analyzes the times of labor's mobility and use the count model to estimate the factors that impact the labor' s multi-mobility after moved into the city. The results show that some personal characteristics of the rural-urban migrants as well as the amount of home land, time of outside, whether having technique or craft and the different hometowns will significantly impact the times of the labor's mobility. Secondly, it analyzes the consequences of the multi-mobility of the rural-urban migrants, rural-urban migrants' occupational prestige has improved after multi-mobility, but not significant. Their human capital increases as the occupations change, and their average income increases while the times of mobility increase.
The fourth part is the third stage of the rural-urban migrants migration—settlement in urban.including chapter six,seven, eight, nine. This part is the key of this paper. Chapter six uses the theory of net benefits's maximization, to account the income and expenditure of rural-urban migrants in urban. List the income and expenditure then statistic each of them, construct the OLS model to analyze the factors that impact the net profit of rural-urban migrants. It shows that men and married persons have a significant advantage in increasing their net income, the number of their children attendding school shows a significant negative correlation with the annual net profit. Chapter seven, based on the literatures and research experiences, uses five variables to divide rural-urban migrants into temporary migration and permanent migration. This division is based on the differences in their actual behavior. On the based of the groups division, construct the simultaneous equations model to analyze the economic status' and social status' differences between temporary migration and permanent migration. The results show that, two types of groups have obvious differences in the annual consumption level of economic status, the occupational prestige of social status and the resident way. Chapter eight uses the two selection model and binary choice model to research the conditions transforming from the temporary migration to permanent migration on the willingness and the actual behavior of rural-urban migrants. The result shows that in addition to age and marital situation, the rural-urban migrants who have high occupational types and own strong social relationships will have more probability of permanent migration. To help them improve their living way may also help to improve the probability of permanent migration both on their willingness and actual action. Chapter nine uses the method of case description, describes two typical cases of rural-urban migrants, respectively reflects the specific characteristics of temporary and permanent migration.
Part five, conclusions and recommendations. Chapter ten, mainly summarizes the conclusions of this paper, and proposes the policy recommendations to arrange the rural-urban migrants in category according to the conclusions.
因此,本文研究农民工的迁移行为模式及其决定,从农民工迁移全过程出发,研究迁移过程中所表现出来的主要特征,进而回答以下问题,为何农民工选择不同的迁移行为模式,为何有的农民工始终难以在城市永久迁移,而有的农民工却能够在城市定居下来,两类农民工群体间有何差别,农民工迁移行为模式的决定因素有哪些,农民工由暂时迁移转变为永久迁移的条件是什么。本研究具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。研究结论有助于促进农民工在城市的稳定定居,进而促进我国城市化的顺利快速发展,具体结论能够为政府管理决策部门提供指导和借鉴,以便针对不同迁移模式下农民工群体给出相应的管理政策与措施。
本文从农民工流动的全过程出发,构建一个基本分析框架,将农民工的迁移分为三个阶段,第一阶段是离开农村迁入城市过程,第二阶段是在城市间及职业间多次流动过程,第三阶段是停留在某城市,进而由暂时迁移转变为永久迁移过程。三个阶段全面刻画了农民工迁移的整体过程,依次对每个过程的研究可以得到上述问题的最终答案。
因此,本文的研究包括以下五部分。
第一部分,研究准备。包括第一、二、三章。第一章主要说明了本文的研究背景、研究目的意义,以及文中主要概念的界定,研究方法、基本分析框架,论文的创新点及不足;第二章,文献综述,分别就经典迁移理论和国内外现有研究成果分几个方面进行综述。可以看出关于我国农民工的相关研究已经非常丰富,很多研究的方法及结论为本文提供了指导,但也发现现有研究中很少有从农民工整体迁移过程进行全面分析的研究,也几乎没有研究将农民工按照实际的迁移行为分为暂时迁移和永久迁移,进而研究两类群体间的差异。第三章则对本文所使用的研究数据进行说明,并对数据做了基本统计分析,以便为后面的分析提供研究样本的概貌。
第二部分,农民工迁移的第一阶段——城市迁入。是论文的第四章,本章用不多的篇幅,统计分析了农民工第一次离开农村迁入城市的主要原因,第一份城市工作获得的途径以及职业类型,并对农民工第一次流入的城市类型做了分析,其结论可与后面的分析做比较。
第三部分,农民工迁移的第二阶段——城市间职业间多次流动。对应文中第五章,本章首先分析了农民工的流动次数,并采用计数模型对农民工迁入城市后又多次流动的影响因素进行了估计。结果可见,农民工的部分个人特征,以及家乡的土地数量、外出时间和是否有技术或手艺以及来源地不同,会显著影响农民工的流动次数。其次,对农民工多次流动的后果进行分析,农民工多次流动后职业声望有所提升,但提升不大,他们的人力资本随着职业变动有所增加,收入随着流动次数增加均值上升。
第四部分,农民工迁移的第三阶段——城市定居。包括第六、第七、第八和第九章。本部分是论文的重点所在。第六章从经济收益最大化理论出发,核算农民工在城市的收入和支出,并对各收入和支出分项进行统计,构建计量模型,分析影响农民工净收益的因素,结果显示男性、已婚者在年净收益增加方面具有显著优势,农民工在学子女数量与年净收益显著负相关。第七章在前述各章分析的基础上,结合文献及研究经验,用五个变量以递进的方式将农民工分为暂时迁移和永久迁移者,划分是在农民工的实际行为差异基础上做出的。在此基础上,构建联立方程,分析暂时迁移和永久迁移者在经济地位和社会地位方面的差异,结果显示,两类群体在经济地位的年消费水平和社会地位的职业声望及居住方式方面存在明显不同。第八章采用二项选择模型和二元选择模型研究农民工在意愿和实际行为两个方面由暂时迁移向永久迁移转变的条件。结果显示,除了年龄和婚姻状况两个个人特征会显著影响迁移概率外,高职业类型和拥有较强社会关系的农民工永久迁移概率会上升,帮助农民工改善居住方式,也会在意愿和实际行动上提高永久迁移概率。第九章采用案例描述方法,描写了两组典型农民工个案,分别反映暂时迁移和永久迁移农民工的具体特征。
第五部分,结论及政策含义。对应论文的第十章,主要是对本文的研究结论进行总结,并根据结论提出相应的对农民工分类管理的政策建议。
According to the request of economic and social development in middle and long term in China, half of urban population will be the new entrants. Then the urbanization level in China will reach at 50% in 2010 and at 60% in 2020 which is the world average level. The core problem of urbanization is the new entrant's adaptation and fusion, namely new entrant's citizenship. Many new entrants will be rural migrants, and urbanization requires rural-urban migrants to be permanent migrants in urban. Permanent migration will be developmental direction of urbanization in our country in the future. However, the migration pattern of Chinese rural-urban migrants is significantly different from similar processes of other countries, the migration is a process which includes both outflow and return. The majority of Chinese rural-urban migrants are in short-term migration process called "houniao style", which causes the low urbanization level of our country, and it does not match to the level of industrialization.
Therefore, this paper studys the whole process of rural-urban migrants' migration, and the main features demonstrated by the process, and then answers the following questions: why some rural-urban migrants are difficult to permanently migrate in urban all the time ,while some rural-urban migrants are able to settle down in urban, what are the differences between the two types of rural-urban migrants, as well as what are the conditions from temporary migration to permanent migration. These questions will have importantly theoretical and practical significance. Conclusions of the study promote rural-urban migrants to settle in urban stably, thereby promote China's urbanization to develop smoothly and rapidly, the policy implications provide guidance and reference for government management and decision-making departments, so the corresponding management policies and measures are given towards rural-urban migrants groups in different migration patterns.
This paper starts from the entire process of rural-urban migrants' mobility, and constructs a basic analysis frame, which divides the migration of rural-urban migrants into three stages, the first stage is the process of leaving rural into urban, the second is the process which rural-urban migrants flows for many times in inter-urban and in inter-profession, the third is to stay in a certain city and then transform from temporary migration to permanent migration. The three stages comprehensively depict the overall process of rural-urban migrants' migration. Each process is studyed, and we may obtain the answers to the above questions.
Therefore, the research of this paper includes the following five parts:
The first part is a preparation, including chapter one, two, and three. Chapter one mainly describes the background, purpose and significance, as well as definition of the key concepts in the paper , the basic analysis frame, research methods, innovation and lack ; Chapter two is a literature review, the classic migration theory and research results in domestic and foreign are respectively reviewed in some aspects. The related research of the rural-urban migrants has been already very rich, lots of research methods and conclusions provide guidance for this paper, but few of the researches conduct a comprehensive analysis from the overall migration process of rural-urban migrants, and there are merely researches which divide rural-urban migrants into temporary and permanent migration according to their actual migration behaviors, and then research the differences in the two groups.Chapter three explains the research data, and makes the basic statistics analysis for the data, in order to provide a profile of samples for the following research analysis.
The second part is the first stage of rural-urban migrants migration—moving into urban, namely chapter four. Without so much length, this part statistics and analyzes the main reasons of rural-urban migrants leaving rural into urban, the way to obtain the first urban job and occupational type, and analyzes the type of urban where the rural-urban migrants move for the first time. Its conclusions can be compared with the following analysis.
The third part is the second stage of the rural-urban migrants migration—mobility in inter-urban and in inter-occupations,namely Chapter five. First,this chapter analyzes the times of labor's mobility and use the count model to estimate the factors that impact the labor' s multi-mobility after moved into the city. The results show that some personal characteristics of the rural-urban migrants as well as the amount of home land, time of outside, whether having technique or craft and the different hometowns will significantly impact the times of the labor's mobility. Secondly, it analyzes the consequences of the multi-mobility of the rural-urban migrants, rural-urban migrants' occupational prestige has improved after multi-mobility, but not significant. Their human capital increases as the occupations change, and their average income increases while the times of mobility increase.
The fourth part is the third stage of the rural-urban migrants migration—settlement in urban.including chapter six,seven, eight, nine. This part is the key of this paper. Chapter six uses the theory of net benefits's maximization, to account the income and expenditure of rural-urban migrants in urban. List the income and expenditure then statistic each of them, construct the OLS model to analyze the factors that impact the net profit of rural-urban migrants. It shows that men and married persons have a significant advantage in increasing their net income, the number of their children attendding school shows a significant negative correlation with the annual net profit. Chapter seven, based on the literatures and research experiences, uses five variables to divide rural-urban migrants into temporary migration and permanent migration. This division is based on the differences in their actual behavior. On the based of the groups division, construct the simultaneous equations model to analyze the economic status' and social status' differences between temporary migration and permanent migration. The results show that, two types of groups have obvious differences in the annual consumption level of economic status, the occupational prestige of social status and the resident way. Chapter eight uses the two selection model and binary choice model to research the conditions transforming from the temporary migration to permanent migration on the willingness and the actual behavior of rural-urban migrants. The result shows that in addition to age and marital situation, the rural-urban migrants who have high occupational types and own strong social relationships will have more probability of permanent migration. To help them improve their living way may also help to improve the probability of permanent migration both on their willingness and actual action. Chapter nine uses the method of case description, describes two typical cases of rural-urban migrants, respectively reflects the specific characteristics of temporary and permanent migration.
Part five, conclusions and recommendations. Chapter ten, mainly summarizes the conclusions of this paper, and proposes the policy recommendations to arrange the rural-urban migrants in category according to the conclusions.
引文
[1]E.S.Lee,《迁移理论》,英文《人口学》1966.3:47-59
[2]K.斯温德尔等,地方,移民和组织.地理学年刊.(75B),1975:69-76
[3]R.Herberle,乡村—城市迁移的原因,美国社会科学杂志.1938.43:932-950
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