大兴沟林业局可持续发展综合评价研究
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摘要
目前可持续发展思想已被全世界各国政府和广大人民所接受,并已成为国家和地区发展共同遵循的指导原则和战略目标。本文系统论述了可持续发展的定义及内涵,辨析了可持续发展、区域可持续发展、林业可持续发展的概念及其关系,以可持续发展思想为指导,完成大兴沟林业局可持续发展综合评价指标体系的构建。
延边森工林区是我国重要的国有林区。大兴沟林业局是延边森工林区中可采资源最少,工业和生活基础最差的一个林业局。大兴沟林业局的发展对于区域经济的增长、林区社会的稳定、延边林区的发展都具有十分重要的意义,在延边森工林区和吉林省的可持续发展中都占有非常重要的地位。本论文试图通过对大兴沟林业局可持续发展问题的讨论,研究大兴沟林业局可持续发展综合评价指标体系,建立起森工可持续发展理论与实践的桥梁。
本文对于评价指标的筛选,一方面吸收前人研究成果中的优良指标,同时,详尽了解大兴沟林业局历史和现状,提出反映大兴沟林业局可持续发展本质内涵的指标,以便科学、公正的进行评价工作。
本文从系统理论出发,设计出一套可持续发展综合评价指标体系。该指标体系分为总体层(1个指标)、系统层(4个指标)、变量层(11个指标)和要素层(38个指标)四个层次。本文采用专家评分法与层次分析法相结合的方法确定各层次评价指标的权重,共邀请了40余位专家进行评分,并综合专家评分构造判断矩阵,确定每层指标的相对重要性权重。提出了评价方法:首先确定各指标变量的标志值,得到各指标变量的实现率。以各指标变量实现率为基础,经归一化处理得到指标的实现率,再经加权计算得到目标层得分。据此对大兴沟林业局可持续发展状况做出分项和综合的评价。通过对历史数据的计算可以对大兴沟林业局可持续发展趋势做出评价。
根据构建的评价指标体系,对大兴沟林业局2000年～2006年的发展状况进行评价。评价结果表明大兴沟林业局虽已基本步入可持续发展的轨道,但处于弱可持续发展状态。自然资源、经济和社会的可持续发展性综合指数值为64～77之间,说明大兴沟林业局在以上三方面有一定的基础也有进一步发展的潜力,科技可持续发展性综合分数值为50左右,是一级指标中分数最低的,说明大兴沟林业局科技水平较低。自然资源指标中,郁闭度、天然针阔叶混交林面积比例都有待提高。经济效益指标亟待提高,尤其是第三产业发展、多种经营开发等方面都应该加强工作,促进经济全面发展,从而提高人均收入,提高人均国内生产总值。同时改善森林经营条件,加强森林资源的经营管理,合理安排林种结构,采取合理有力的措施提高林分生长量,使森工林区的森林资源达到生长量大、蓄积量高、林龄结构合理的要求。林区社会可持续发展水平呈下降趋势,科技水平状况不好。文化水平、科技水平、医疗保健水平都有待提高。科技经费过少将严重影响科技对林区发展的促进作用,应引起有关部门足够的重视。
基于以上评价结果,本文从总体上讨论了大兴沟林业局实施可持续发展战略的道路选择问题。改变这种状况,必须找到一条符合大兴沟林业局的实际情况,既满足森工林区可持续发展要求,又满足国家需要的经济发展道路。提出“一二四八”发展战略,以该战略为依托,提出大兴沟林业局可持续发展的建议:管理好木材产销、搞好森林培育、发展林业产业、强化科技支撑。
At present the sustainable development ideal has been accepted by various countries government and general populace in the world,and has become the guiding principle and the strategic target which country and local development follows together.This dissertation discussed the connotation and definition of sustainable development,differentiated the concept of sustainable development,region sustainable development,forestry sustainable development and their relations.The paper takes the sustainable development ideal as the instruction,and establishes the sustainable development integrated evaluation criteria.
YanBian forestry industry region is an important national forest region.DaXing-gou Forestry Bureau is the bureau that the cutting resource,industry and standard of living is fewness in YanBian forestry industry region,so its development plays vital role in the growth of the region economy,the stable level of the region society and development of YanBian forestry industry region.It holds the extremely important status in YanBian forestry industry region and JiLin province sustainable development.Through discussing the forestry industry region sustainable development question,the paper focuses on the sustainable development integrated evaluation criteria of DaXing-gou Forestry Bureau and establishing the link between the forestry industry region sustainable development theory and the practice.
On selecting the appropriate index,the paper absorbs the fine index in forefathers' research accomplishment on the one hand.On the other hand,the historical and present situation of DaXing-gou Forestry Bureau has be known thoroughly,and the leading factor that restricted its development has been analyzed,so the indexes are set that reflect the essential intension of its sustainable development in order to appraise scientifically and fairly.
According to the view of systematic theory,a set of comprehensive appraisement index system on sustainable development is designed.The index system divides into 4 levels:the overall layer(1 index),systematic layer(4 index),variable layer(11 index) and essential layer(38 index).This paper adopts the stratification analyzing method and specialist' evaluation results two methods.In order to improve the scientificness and representative,above 40 specialists are invited to give the mark and integrated these mark to construct the judges matrix and determine relatively importance weight of each layer of index.According to above criteria, the mark value of the criterion is made sure firstly and the realization ratio of the criterion is obtained.Then on the basis of the realization ratio of the criteria,the realization ratio of the category criteria is obtained by normalization,and again doing the weighted calculation gets the realization ratio of the target layer.On these basic,situation of the forestry industry region can be evaluated respectively and synthetically.Even more,the evaluation on development trend has been measured by history data calculation.
Taking the data from 2000 to 2006 as example,the paper systemically estimate state of DaXing-gou Forestry Bureau.The result of appraise indicates that DaXing-gou Forestry Bureau has enter the roadway of sustainable development although,it belongs to weak sustainable development situation.The calculation quantitative results of forest resource, economic and social are all between 64 and 77,which illuminates DaXing-gou Forestry Bureau has some well foundation and elevated potential.While the calculation quantitative result of science and technology is about 50,which is shortest among the first indicator,and it shows the level of science and technology is too low.Among forest resource indicators,close degree,the area and rate of natural mixed needle and broad leaves forest should be improved. Economic indicators all need to be improved,especially,the third industry development, multiply operation development should be emphasized in order to improve the average revenue growth and the average GDP.As the same time,by improving forest management condition, strengthen forest resource management,reasonable arrangement forest kind structure and by using reasonable measures,the demand of high forest growth,high volume and suitable forest age structure could be meet.Relatively,the tendency of the level of social sustainable development is declining,and the condition of science and technology is not well.And culture level,technology level and medical health level should be improved in the future.Technology devotion is so shortage that had effect on the region development,so it should be attached importance to by government.
Based on the evaluation results,the paper discusses the strategy for the forestry industrial region sustainable development.The study concludes that a way must be founded that will satisfy the demand of DaXing-gou Forestry Bureau sustainable development according to the fact of the region.The way will be satisfied not only the demand of the national,but also the demand of the development of economy.This paper puts forwards "1248" development stratagem.Rely on this development stratagem,this paper think DaXing-gou Forestry Bureau should do four works try their best:the woods' produce and distribution,forestry breeding, forestry industry and science and technology sustain.
延边森工林区是我国重要的国有林区。大兴沟林业局是延边森工林区中可采资源最少,工业和生活基础最差的一个林业局。大兴沟林业局的发展对于区域经济的增长、林区社会的稳定、延边林区的发展都具有十分重要的意义,在延边森工林区和吉林省的可持续发展中都占有非常重要的地位。本论文试图通过对大兴沟林业局可持续发展问题的讨论,研究大兴沟林业局可持续发展综合评价指标体系,建立起森工可持续发展理论与实践的桥梁。
本文对于评价指标的筛选,一方面吸收前人研究成果中的优良指标,同时,详尽了解大兴沟林业局历史和现状,提出反映大兴沟林业局可持续发展本质内涵的指标,以便科学、公正的进行评价工作。
本文从系统理论出发,设计出一套可持续发展综合评价指标体系。该指标体系分为总体层(1个指标)、系统层(4个指标)、变量层(11个指标)和要素层(38个指标)四个层次。本文采用专家评分法与层次分析法相结合的方法确定各层次评价指标的权重,共邀请了40余位专家进行评分,并综合专家评分构造判断矩阵,确定每层指标的相对重要性权重。提出了评价方法:首先确定各指标变量的标志值,得到各指标变量的实现率。以各指标变量实现率为基础,经归一化处理得到指标的实现率,再经加权计算得到目标层得分。据此对大兴沟林业局可持续发展状况做出分项和综合的评价。通过对历史数据的计算可以对大兴沟林业局可持续发展趋势做出评价。
根据构建的评价指标体系,对大兴沟林业局2000年～2006年的发展状况进行评价。评价结果表明大兴沟林业局虽已基本步入可持续发展的轨道,但处于弱可持续发展状态。自然资源、经济和社会的可持续发展性综合指数值为64～77之间,说明大兴沟林业局在以上三方面有一定的基础也有进一步发展的潜力,科技可持续发展性综合分数值为50左右,是一级指标中分数最低的,说明大兴沟林业局科技水平较低。自然资源指标中,郁闭度、天然针阔叶混交林面积比例都有待提高。经济效益指标亟待提高,尤其是第三产业发展、多种经营开发等方面都应该加强工作,促进经济全面发展,从而提高人均收入,提高人均国内生产总值。同时改善森林经营条件,加强森林资源的经营管理,合理安排林种结构,采取合理有力的措施提高林分生长量,使森工林区的森林资源达到生长量大、蓄积量高、林龄结构合理的要求。林区社会可持续发展水平呈下降趋势,科技水平状况不好。文化水平、科技水平、医疗保健水平都有待提高。科技经费过少将严重影响科技对林区发展的促进作用,应引起有关部门足够的重视。
基于以上评价结果,本文从总体上讨论了大兴沟林业局实施可持续发展战略的道路选择问题。改变这种状况,必须找到一条符合大兴沟林业局的实际情况,既满足森工林区可持续发展要求,又满足国家需要的经济发展道路。提出“一二四八”发展战略,以该战略为依托,提出大兴沟林业局可持续发展的建议:管理好木材产销、搞好森林培育、发展林业产业、强化科技支撑。
At present the sustainable development ideal has been accepted by various countries government and general populace in the world,and has become the guiding principle and the strategic target which country and local development follows together.This dissertation discussed the connotation and definition of sustainable development,differentiated the concept of sustainable development,region sustainable development,forestry sustainable development and their relations.The paper takes the sustainable development ideal as the instruction,and establishes the sustainable development integrated evaluation criteria.
YanBian forestry industry region is an important national forest region.DaXing-gou Forestry Bureau is the bureau that the cutting resource,industry and standard of living is fewness in YanBian forestry industry region,so its development plays vital role in the growth of the region economy,the stable level of the region society and development of YanBian forestry industry region.It holds the extremely important status in YanBian forestry industry region and JiLin province sustainable development.Through discussing the forestry industry region sustainable development question,the paper focuses on the sustainable development integrated evaluation criteria of DaXing-gou Forestry Bureau and establishing the link between the forestry industry region sustainable development theory and the practice.
On selecting the appropriate index,the paper absorbs the fine index in forefathers' research accomplishment on the one hand.On the other hand,the historical and present situation of DaXing-gou Forestry Bureau has be known thoroughly,and the leading factor that restricted its development has been analyzed,so the indexes are set that reflect the essential intension of its sustainable development in order to appraise scientifically and fairly.
According to the view of systematic theory,a set of comprehensive appraisement index system on sustainable development is designed.The index system divides into 4 levels:the overall layer(1 index),systematic layer(4 index),variable layer(11 index) and essential layer(38 index).This paper adopts the stratification analyzing method and specialist' evaluation results two methods.In order to improve the scientificness and representative,above 40 specialists are invited to give the mark and integrated these mark to construct the judges matrix and determine relatively importance weight of each layer of index.According to above criteria, the mark value of the criterion is made sure firstly and the realization ratio of the criterion is obtained.Then on the basis of the realization ratio of the criteria,the realization ratio of the category criteria is obtained by normalization,and again doing the weighted calculation gets the realization ratio of the target layer.On these basic,situation of the forestry industry region can be evaluated respectively and synthetically.Even more,the evaluation on development trend has been measured by history data calculation.
Taking the data from 2000 to 2006 as example,the paper systemically estimate state of DaXing-gou Forestry Bureau.The result of appraise indicates that DaXing-gou Forestry Bureau has enter the roadway of sustainable development although,it belongs to weak sustainable development situation.The calculation quantitative results of forest resource, economic and social are all between 64 and 77,which illuminates DaXing-gou Forestry Bureau has some well foundation and elevated potential.While the calculation quantitative result of science and technology is about 50,which is shortest among the first indicator,and it shows the level of science and technology is too low.Among forest resource indicators,close degree,the area and rate of natural mixed needle and broad leaves forest should be improved. Economic indicators all need to be improved,especially,the third industry development, multiply operation development should be emphasized in order to improve the average revenue growth and the average GDP.As the same time,by improving forest management condition, strengthen forest resource management,reasonable arrangement forest kind structure and by using reasonable measures,the demand of high forest growth,high volume and suitable forest age structure could be meet.Relatively,the tendency of the level of social sustainable development is declining,and the condition of science and technology is not well.And culture level,technology level and medical health level should be improved in the future.Technology devotion is so shortage that had effect on the region development,so it should be attached importance to by government.
Based on the evaluation results,the paper discusses the strategy for the forestry industrial region sustainable development.The study concludes that a way must be founded that will satisfy the demand of DaXing-gou Forestry Bureau sustainable development according to the fact of the region.The way will be satisfied not only the demand of the national,but also the demand of the development of economy.This paper puts forwards "1248" development stratagem.Rely on this development stratagem,this paper think DaXing-gou Forestry Bureau should do four works try their best:the woods' produce and distribution,forestry breeding, forestry industry and science and technology sustain.
引文
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