我国粮食供求、价格波动与安全问题的实证分析
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摘要
粮食是人们赖以生存的最重要的物质基础,与粮食有关的问题(包括粮食生产、粮食储备、粮食进口、粮食市场价格波动、粮食政策效率以及农民种粮收益等问题),特别是粮食安全问题始终是我国政府和各界人士关注的焦点。对于一个拥有13亿人口的发展中国家来说,保证粮食供给、稳定粮食价格以及提高农民种粮收益始终是关系到国家经济发展和社会稳定的头等大事。本文以我国粮食供求、价格波动为主线,对我国的粮食安全、政策效率和农民种粮收益等问题进行了系统的研究和阐述。
本文首先对我国的粮食供给能力和粮食需求状况做了详细的分析,并对我国未来一段时期的粮食产量和粮食需求量进行了预测;其次,从具体的政策和制度环境出发对我国粮食价格波动的历史情况进行了回顾,并利用蛛网理论模型和多元线性回归模型对我国历年粮食价格波动的特点、原因以及我国粮食期货市场价格与粮食现货市场价格的相关性进行了分析;再次,使用SWOT分析方法,对我国粮食产业的基本情况进行了阐述,指出了我国粮食产业自身所具有的优势和劣势以及所面临的机会和威胁,并对我国的粮食安全情况进行了实证分析;最后,利用DEA模型和数理分析对我国当前的粮食政策进行了计量评价和数理推导,指出我国粮食直接补贴政策的投入产出效率总体情况一般,且粮食消费者从粮食直接补贴政策中得到的利益要大于种粮农民从粮食直接补贴政策中得到的利益。
本文的创新之处在于:在详细分析影响我国粮食供求的各种因素的基础上,利用ARMA模型和GARCH模型,根据不同的人口增长率分别计算出了我国在2010—2015年的粮食供求缺口数量;利用多元线性回归模型对大豆、玉米和小麦的期货市场价格与现货市场价格之间的关系进行实证分析,并对分析结果进行ADF和GRANGER因果检验,指出不同粮食品种的期货市场价格与现货市场价格之间存在着不同的关系;使用主成分分析法对我国的粮食安全状况进行了实证分析,计算出了我国在1983—2006年历年的粮食安全指数,并指出我国不同时期粮食安全状况变化的原因。
Grain is vital to lead a basic living,and it is also very important to the social stability and economy development for a populous developing country.The problem of grain(including grain production,grain reposition、grain import、price fluctuation in grain market、food policy and farmer's income),especially the problem of food security,is the focus to our government and other people.
Focus on the grain supply and demand and the price fluctuation in China,this paper explores the food security、the efficiency of grain policy and farmer's income.First of all,it expatiates the basic complexion of the ability of grain supply and grain demand in China.After studying the various factors which affect the grain demand and supply,it uses the model of ARMA and GARCH,and utiliazes the datas of grain output and average consumption,calculates the quantity gap of grain supply and demand of the year 2010 to 2015 according to the different population increasing rate.
Secondly,it reviews the historical complexion of the price fluctuation from the actual policy and system enviroment,and uses the model of cobweb theory and common regression to analyse the character and reason of price fluctuation and the relativity between the futures price and the spot price.The results indicate that the grain output and grain price of the former year is crutial to the grain price of the present year;There are different relationship between the futures price and the present spot price of the various kinds of grain.
Again,it studys the basic complexion of Chinese food security(predominance,inferior position,opportunity,threaten) with the use of the SWOT method,and it also indicates the principle and method of creating the Chinese food security system.It analyses the status of Chinese food security with the use of Principal method and calculates the food security index of the year 1983 to 2006 after selecting 12 indexs which reflect the grain production、grain mobilization and grain consumption.
At last,it reviews the Chinese food policy of past years and evaluates the efficiency of the present food policy with the use of the symbolic analysis and the DEA model.and then it indicates that the efficiency of the present food policy is commonly,and there is an large gap among those provinces,and many inefficient provinces are located in the main production areas;The consumer's behalf is bigger than the farmers',the present food policy is not so vital to the enhance of the farmer's income and production positivity.
Finally in this article give the main conclusions of the thesis.
In this paper,the main research results are as follows:
1.At a detailed analysis of the impact of Chinese grain supply and demand on the basis of various factors,Using ARMA model and the GARCH model and According to different population growth rates our country's food supply and demand gap Quantity at the year of 2010-2015 were calculated:Population growth rate at 0.6 percent of cases,our country in the year of 2010-2015 at the grain supply and demand gap will fluctuate between -64436 00 tons and 18704300 tons;Population growth rate at 0.8 percent of cases,our country in 2010-2015 at the grain supply and demand gap of 6665300 tons and 28258400 tons between the fluctuations; Population growth rate at 1 percent of cases,our country in the year of 2010-2015 at the grain supply and demand gap will fluctuate between 10748100 tons and 37965300 tons.
2.Through our country's basic information of food imports,as well as the feasibility analysis of food imports,concluded our country has enough foreign exchange reserves,at a certain range we can take an appropriate use of international markets to import grain.According to our country over the years changes in reserves estimates of the situation,pointing out that the change of China's grain reserves is not only closely related to food production,import and export volume as well as food consumption,But the changes in grain reserves also have a certain impact on the trend of the late food prices,it can be said that there is a strong correlation between the decline or increase in food prices of the present year and the increase or decrease in the extent and continuity on grain reserves of the former year.
3.It analyzed the relationship between the grain futures market prices and the spot market prices of the different varieties of grain with the use of multiple linear regression model and examined the results with the method of ADF and the Granger causality test,and get the following conclusions:There are stable equilibrium relationship between the soybean futures market price of one month before and the present spot market price,and there is the one-way Granger causality between the early soybean futures market price and the current spot market price;There are stable equilibrium relationship between the corn futures market price of one month before and three month before and the present spot market price,and there is the one-way Granger causality between the early corn futures market price and the current spot market price;There are stable equilibrium relationship between the wheat futures market price of one month before and three month before and the present spot market price,and there is not the Granger causality between the early wheat futures market price and the current spot market price.
4.Using principal component analysis method on China's food security situation in the empirical analysis and given the food security index of our country from the 1983-2006 calendar year.It pointed out that in 1987-1989 the level of food security in our country is not high,the grain market showing a relative surplus of food supply and food market prices as well as farmers growing grain characteristics are all in the low side;our country's food security situation was relatively poor in the year of 1992-1995,the grain market showing a tight grain supply,demand and supply gap larger,grain market prices volatiling,farmers growing grain is not high income as well as the Food Policy was in the inefficient characteristics;Our country's food security situation was in a relatively high degree in the year of 2003-2006,through observing operation of the domestic grain market of the period,we can find that China's grain market had been showing a basic balance between grain supply and demand,food prices was in a relative stable characteristics at this time.
5.Mathematical derivation concluded:the benefits of food consumers which get from the food subsidy policies is greater than the proceeds of grain farmers that get from the food subsidy policies.This is because under market economy conditions,the grain market price determined by market supply and demand relations,food subsidies directly to the hands of peasant farmers will stimulate enthusiasm for growing grain,it increasing the food supply in a certain extent,resulting in the grain market equilibrium price reduced.At last,direct grain subsidies give to food consumers indirectly through the market at lower prices.
6.The situation of China's food policy is not high input-output efficiency was extremely serious,there were only 8 provinces and autonomous regions in the domestic 23 provinces and autonomous regions which the DEA score were 1,the DEA scores of the remaining 15 provinces and autonomous regions are less than one,that is to say in the domestic 23 provinces and municipalities and autonomous regions,only these 8 areas in which the agricultural policies are effective and the agricultural policies in other areas are relatively inefficient.Xinjiang Province, Anhui Province and Fujian Province as an example,the DEA scores of the three provinces are 0.5925,0.5256 and 0.3498,that is to say at the same level of output,only need to use 59.25%,52.56%and 34.98%of necessary amount of current investment in agriculture,these three provinces have 40.75%,47.44%and 65.02%of the input element does not contribute to output.
本文首先对我国的粮食供给能力和粮食需求状况做了详细的分析,并对我国未来一段时期的粮食产量和粮食需求量进行了预测;其次,从具体的政策和制度环境出发对我国粮食价格波动的历史情况进行了回顾,并利用蛛网理论模型和多元线性回归模型对我国历年粮食价格波动的特点、原因以及我国粮食期货市场价格与粮食现货市场价格的相关性进行了分析;再次,使用SWOT分析方法,对我国粮食产业的基本情况进行了阐述,指出了我国粮食产业自身所具有的优势和劣势以及所面临的机会和威胁,并对我国的粮食安全情况进行了实证分析;最后,利用DEA模型和数理分析对我国当前的粮食政策进行了计量评价和数理推导,指出我国粮食直接补贴政策的投入产出效率总体情况一般,且粮食消费者从粮食直接补贴政策中得到的利益要大于种粮农民从粮食直接补贴政策中得到的利益。
本文的创新之处在于:在详细分析影响我国粮食供求的各种因素的基础上,利用ARMA模型和GARCH模型,根据不同的人口增长率分别计算出了我国在2010—2015年的粮食供求缺口数量;利用多元线性回归模型对大豆、玉米和小麦的期货市场价格与现货市场价格之间的关系进行实证分析,并对分析结果进行ADF和GRANGER因果检验,指出不同粮食品种的期货市场价格与现货市场价格之间存在着不同的关系;使用主成分分析法对我国的粮食安全状况进行了实证分析,计算出了我国在1983—2006年历年的粮食安全指数,并指出我国不同时期粮食安全状况变化的原因。
Grain is vital to lead a basic living,and it is also very important to the social stability and economy development for a populous developing country.The problem of grain(including grain production,grain reposition、grain import、price fluctuation in grain market、food policy and farmer's income),especially the problem of food security,is the focus to our government and other people.
Focus on the grain supply and demand and the price fluctuation in China,this paper explores the food security、the efficiency of grain policy and farmer's income.First of all,it expatiates the basic complexion of the ability of grain supply and grain demand in China.After studying the various factors which affect the grain demand and supply,it uses the model of ARMA and GARCH,and utiliazes the datas of grain output and average consumption,calculates the quantity gap of grain supply and demand of the year 2010 to 2015 according to the different population increasing rate.
Secondly,it reviews the historical complexion of the price fluctuation from the actual policy and system enviroment,and uses the model of cobweb theory and common regression to analyse the character and reason of price fluctuation and the relativity between the futures price and the spot price.The results indicate that the grain output and grain price of the former year is crutial to the grain price of the present year;There are different relationship between the futures price and the present spot price of the various kinds of grain.
Again,it studys the basic complexion of Chinese food security(predominance,inferior position,opportunity,threaten) with the use of the SWOT method,and it also indicates the principle and method of creating the Chinese food security system.It analyses the status of Chinese food security with the use of Principal method and calculates the food security index of the year 1983 to 2006 after selecting 12 indexs which reflect the grain production、grain mobilization and grain consumption.
At last,it reviews the Chinese food policy of past years and evaluates the efficiency of the present food policy with the use of the symbolic analysis and the DEA model.and then it indicates that the efficiency of the present food policy is commonly,and there is an large gap among those provinces,and many inefficient provinces are located in the main production areas;The consumer's behalf is bigger than the farmers',the present food policy is not so vital to the enhance of the farmer's income and production positivity.
Finally in this article give the main conclusions of the thesis.
In this paper,the main research results are as follows:
1.At a detailed analysis of the impact of Chinese grain supply and demand on the basis of various factors,Using ARMA model and the GARCH model and According to different population growth rates our country's food supply and demand gap Quantity at the year of 2010-2015 were calculated:Population growth rate at 0.6 percent of cases,our country in the year of 2010-2015 at the grain supply and demand gap will fluctuate between -64436 00 tons and 18704300 tons;Population growth rate at 0.8 percent of cases,our country in 2010-2015 at the grain supply and demand gap of 6665300 tons and 28258400 tons between the fluctuations; Population growth rate at 1 percent of cases,our country in the year of 2010-2015 at the grain supply and demand gap will fluctuate between 10748100 tons and 37965300 tons.
2.Through our country's basic information of food imports,as well as the feasibility analysis of food imports,concluded our country has enough foreign exchange reserves,at a certain range we can take an appropriate use of international markets to import grain.According to our country over the years changes in reserves estimates of the situation,pointing out that the change of China's grain reserves is not only closely related to food production,import and export volume as well as food consumption,But the changes in grain reserves also have a certain impact on the trend of the late food prices,it can be said that there is a strong correlation between the decline or increase in food prices of the present year and the increase or decrease in the extent and continuity on grain reserves of the former year.
3.It analyzed the relationship between the grain futures market prices and the spot market prices of the different varieties of grain with the use of multiple linear regression model and examined the results with the method of ADF and the Granger causality test,and get the following conclusions:There are stable equilibrium relationship between the soybean futures market price of one month before and the present spot market price,and there is the one-way Granger causality between the early soybean futures market price and the current spot market price;There are stable equilibrium relationship between the corn futures market price of one month before and three month before and the present spot market price,and there is the one-way Granger causality between the early corn futures market price and the current spot market price;There are stable equilibrium relationship between the wheat futures market price of one month before and three month before and the present spot market price,and there is not the Granger causality between the early wheat futures market price and the current spot market price.
4.Using principal component analysis method on China's food security situation in the empirical analysis and given the food security index of our country from the 1983-2006 calendar year.It pointed out that in 1987-1989 the level of food security in our country is not high,the grain market showing a relative surplus of food supply and food market prices as well as farmers growing grain characteristics are all in the low side;our country's food security situation was relatively poor in the year of 1992-1995,the grain market showing a tight grain supply,demand and supply gap larger,grain market prices volatiling,farmers growing grain is not high income as well as the Food Policy was in the inefficient characteristics;Our country's food security situation was in a relatively high degree in the year of 2003-2006,through observing operation of the domestic grain market of the period,we can find that China's grain market had been showing a basic balance between grain supply and demand,food prices was in a relative stable characteristics at this time.
5.Mathematical derivation concluded:the benefits of food consumers which get from the food subsidy policies is greater than the proceeds of grain farmers that get from the food subsidy policies.This is because under market economy conditions,the grain market price determined by market supply and demand relations,food subsidies directly to the hands of peasant farmers will stimulate enthusiasm for growing grain,it increasing the food supply in a certain extent,resulting in the grain market equilibrium price reduced.At last,direct grain subsidies give to food consumers indirectly through the market at lower prices.
6.The situation of China's food policy is not high input-output efficiency was extremely serious,there were only 8 provinces and autonomous regions in the domestic 23 provinces and autonomous regions which the DEA score were 1,the DEA scores of the remaining 15 provinces and autonomous regions are less than one,that is to say in the domestic 23 provinces and municipalities and autonomous regions,only these 8 areas in which the agricultural policies are effective and the agricultural policies in other areas are relatively inefficient.Xinjiang Province, Anhui Province and Fujian Province as an example,the DEA scores of the three provinces are 0.5925,0.5256 and 0.3498,that is to say at the same level of output,only need to use 59.25%,52.56%and 34.98%of necessary amount of current investment in agriculture,these three provinces have 40.75%,47.44%and 65.02%of the input element does not contribute to output.
引文
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[1]Shikha Jha,P.V.Srinivasan,"Grain price stabilization in India:Evaluation of policy alternatives",Agricultural Economics,Volume 21,Issue 1,August 1999,Pages 93-108
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[1]张凤荣、张晋科、张迪,“1996—2004年中国耕地的粮食生产能力变化研究”,《中国土地科学》,2006年第2期,第8-14页。
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