中国经济增长与通货膨胀相互关系及其协调性的研究
摘要
本文以我国1952—2007年期间的宏观经济统计数据为基础,通过研究我国经济增长与通货膨胀问题以及经济增长与通货膨胀之间的相互依赖关系和周期性循环运动规律,提出我国宏观经济协调运行的政策建议。
第一,本文在传统“产出一物价”型Phillips曲线长期模型中,加入了表现经济增长率与通货膨胀率乘积效应的交叉乘积项,建立了表现二者之间长期关系的有理函数模型。实证分析发现:二者之间的交叉乘积项对于模型稳定性和误差都有显著影响;在以经济增长率为横轴、以通胀率为纵轴、以有理函数的两条渐近线交点为原点所构成的坐标系下,四个象限就代表了我国宏观经济运行的四种状态;我国经济增长与通货膨胀之间的运动规律具有在四象限之间逆时针周期性循环运动的特征。
第二,本文采用ARDL、VAR、VECM模型对我国宏观经济增长与通胀之间的相关性、因果性、结构性关系进行了研究。实证分析发现:在1979年以后,不论短期还是长期,我国实际经济增长率与通胀率之间都具有双向格兰杰因果关系和显著的正相关关系;短期中,二者之间的长期不均衡会同时互相做出调整;长期内,二者的滞后一、二期对当期具有显著影响。而根据1978年以前数据实证分析所得到的结论与1979年以后的结论正好相反。改革开放前后,我国宏观经济增长与通胀之间的关系发生了结构性的变化。
第三,本文对我国改革开放前后经济增长与通胀的波动性以及波动性对社会福利的影响进行了研究。实证分析发现:与1978年以前相比,1979年以后,我国经济增长率提高,经济增长平稳性增强,经济波动的财富损失较小,经济增长与通货膨胀的波动周期之间具有很高程度的同步性。但是,在改革开放以后,由于价格指数大大提高,所以通货膨胀税也大幅提高。
第四,本文分析发现:为了保持我国宏观经济在低通胀(3%)下快速运行,我国整体经济的实际增长率应该控制在7%—10.6%范围以内。
This paper focuses on the issues of economic growth and inflation and the relationship between the both. Based on the statistical data of Chinese economy during 1952 and 2007, the paper concentrates on doing the empirical analysis on the relationship between the Chinese economic growth and inflation. The paper aims for finding the rules of dependency between the Chinese economic growth and inflation and giving some policy suggestions for maintaining the Chinese economy to be development sustainable and coordination.
Firstly, the paper sets up a rational function model for the long run relationship between economic growth rate and the inflation rate by adding the cross product term of the both into the traditional model of "output-price" Phillips curve. The empirical analysis shows that the product term has substantial impact on the model's stability. When setting up a coordinate system by using the growth rate as horizontal axis, the inflation rate as vertical axis, and the cross point of the both asymptotic lines of the regression model in rational function as the origin, the four quadrants will represent the four states of the macro economy. The scattered curve of the economic growth and inflation will move and fluctuate in anticlockwise on the four quadrants of the coordinate.
Secondly, the paper studies the issues of the correlation, causality and the change of structure between the Chinese economic growth and inflation. The empirical analysis shows that there is a two-way Granger causality and a positive correlation between the growth rate and inflation in long-run and short-run during the period from 1979 to 2007. The unbalanced state between the economic growth and inflation in long run may be adjusted in short run by each other. In long run that the lag period of one year or two years of the growth rate and inflation rate have substantial impact on current period. Comparing to the period from 1979 to 2007, the empirical analysis results are totally inversed during the period from 1953 to 1978. The structure between economic growth and inflation has changed a lot since 1979.
Thirdly, the paper calculates the periodic fluctuations of the Chinese economic growth and inflation and analyzes how the periodic fluctuations impact on the welfare of the aggregate economy. The empirical analysis shows that since 1979 the open and reform policy has led a great change to the Chinese aggregate economy when comparing to the period from 1953 to 1978. Since 1979, the Chinese economic growth rate has increased, the aggregate economy has developed more sustainable, the loss of the welfare from the periodic fluctuations has decreased, and the synchronicity of the periodic fluctuations of the economic growth and inflation has increased. However, since 1979 because the price indexes increase much higher than before, the inflation tax has increased a lot.
Finally, the empirical analysis shows when the real growth rate of the Chineseaggregate economy is within the range of 7% and 10.6% the inflation rate will maintain inlow level and be less than 3%.
第一,本文在传统“产出一物价”型Phillips曲线长期模型中,加入了表现经济增长率与通货膨胀率乘积效应的交叉乘积项,建立了表现二者之间长期关系的有理函数模型。实证分析发现:二者之间的交叉乘积项对于模型稳定性和误差都有显著影响;在以经济增长率为横轴、以通胀率为纵轴、以有理函数的两条渐近线交点为原点所构成的坐标系下,四个象限就代表了我国宏观经济运行的四种状态;我国经济增长与通货膨胀之间的运动规律具有在四象限之间逆时针周期性循环运动的特征。
第二,本文采用ARDL、VAR、VECM模型对我国宏观经济增长与通胀之间的相关性、因果性、结构性关系进行了研究。实证分析发现:在1979年以后,不论短期还是长期,我国实际经济增长率与通胀率之间都具有双向格兰杰因果关系和显著的正相关关系;短期中,二者之间的长期不均衡会同时互相做出调整;长期内,二者的滞后一、二期对当期具有显著影响。而根据1978年以前数据实证分析所得到的结论与1979年以后的结论正好相反。改革开放前后,我国宏观经济增长与通胀之间的关系发生了结构性的变化。
第三,本文对我国改革开放前后经济增长与通胀的波动性以及波动性对社会福利的影响进行了研究。实证分析发现:与1978年以前相比,1979年以后,我国经济增长率提高,经济增长平稳性增强,经济波动的财富损失较小,经济增长与通货膨胀的波动周期之间具有很高程度的同步性。但是,在改革开放以后,由于价格指数大大提高,所以通货膨胀税也大幅提高。
第四,本文分析发现:为了保持我国宏观经济在低通胀(3%)下快速运行,我国整体经济的实际增长率应该控制在7%—10.6%范围以内。
This paper focuses on the issues of economic growth and inflation and the relationship between the both. Based on the statistical data of Chinese economy during 1952 and 2007, the paper concentrates on doing the empirical analysis on the relationship between the Chinese economic growth and inflation. The paper aims for finding the rules of dependency between the Chinese economic growth and inflation and giving some policy suggestions for maintaining the Chinese economy to be development sustainable and coordination.
Firstly, the paper sets up a rational function model for the long run relationship between economic growth rate and the inflation rate by adding the cross product term of the both into the traditional model of "output-price" Phillips curve. The empirical analysis shows that the product term has substantial impact on the model's stability. When setting up a coordinate system by using the growth rate as horizontal axis, the inflation rate as vertical axis, and the cross point of the both asymptotic lines of the regression model in rational function as the origin, the four quadrants will represent the four states of the macro economy. The scattered curve of the economic growth and inflation will move and fluctuate in anticlockwise on the four quadrants of the coordinate.
Secondly, the paper studies the issues of the correlation, causality and the change of structure between the Chinese economic growth and inflation. The empirical analysis shows that there is a two-way Granger causality and a positive correlation between the growth rate and inflation in long-run and short-run during the period from 1979 to 2007. The unbalanced state between the economic growth and inflation in long run may be adjusted in short run by each other. In long run that the lag period of one year or two years of the growth rate and inflation rate have substantial impact on current period. Comparing to the period from 1979 to 2007, the empirical analysis results are totally inversed during the period from 1953 to 1978. The structure between economic growth and inflation has changed a lot since 1979.
Thirdly, the paper calculates the periodic fluctuations of the Chinese economic growth and inflation and analyzes how the periodic fluctuations impact on the welfare of the aggregate economy. The empirical analysis shows that since 1979 the open and reform policy has led a great change to the Chinese aggregate economy when comparing to the period from 1953 to 1978. Since 1979, the Chinese economic growth rate has increased, the aggregate economy has developed more sustainable, the loss of the welfare from the periodic fluctuations has decreased, and the synchronicity of the periodic fluctuations of the economic growth and inflation has increased. However, since 1979 because the price indexes increase much higher than before, the inflation tax has increased a lot.
Finally, the empirical analysis shows when the real growth rate of the Chineseaggregate economy is within the range of 7% and 10.6% the inflation rate will maintain inlow level and be less than 3%.
引文
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