海外华商网络与中国对外贸易：理论与证据
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摘要
商业与社会网络是近年来经济学家与社会学家的热点研究课题之一。而本文主要针对海外华商网络进行理论与实证研究,探讨海外华商网络在国际贸易中的经济效应、信息交流与合作机制等问题。全文共分五章。第一章为文献综述,对当前国际贸易理论的缺陷进行阐述以及对华商网络的文献资料进行评述。第二章和第三章分别为华商网络的经济分析(Ⅰ)、(Ⅱ),主要从交易成本、技术吸收、技术学习与经济增长、贸易与投资中介、垄断、企业集群等六个方面建立起华商网络的经济学分析框架。第四章为华商网络的信息交流、合作机理与网络规模研究。第五章为海外华商网络对中国对外贸易与FDI效应的实证分析,主要是运用计量经济学的研究方法对海外华商网络在中国对外贸易与FDI的效应做数量分析。
通过理论分析和实证分析,作者发现:(1)海外华商网络的存在可以明显减少彼此的交易成本,同时产生“移民偏好”与“进口替代”效应;(2)通过“全球商品链”中贸易网络的技术传播途径,华商网络提高了中国以及东南亚地区企业的技术水平;(3)随着接受新技术的华商网络成员数量的变化,单个网络成员i接受新技术的倾向存在一种倒“U”型效应,进而对地区经济的发展产生两种相反的影响;(4)海外华商充当外国贸易商(或投资商)与其他华商的中介地位在变得愈加重要,而并没有象很多学者所预期的那样趋于削弱;(5)存在着华商垄断居住国本地商业的事实,从而改变了国际贸易中的市场结构和贸易流量,但是由于外部环境的变化,如贸易与投资自由化步伐的加快以及新贸易商与营销网络的出现(如超级连锁店)等因素都将会对华商网络构成挑战,因此华商网络不可能长期垄断贸易;(6)海外华商企业在华人较聚集的国家或地区产生集聚,亚洲华商主要倾向于贸易、金融、加工制造业等领域,欧洲华商则在不断深化以餐饮为主的服务行业,而美国华商则集中在房地产、电子、机械和IT产业;(7)华商网络区分内部成员的标准越严格,那么内部成员的沟通就越容易,反之,如果华商网络区分内部成员的标准越松散,那么内部成员的沟通就越为困难,合作也就相应地变得困难;(8)五缘关系是华商之间相互交流的基础,在此基础上,建立了多种联系机构,其中最高级别的交流机构为世界华商大会,华商之间的交流是开放式的,华商可以随意加入或退出任一社团(帮会)或行业协会,华商也可同时通过其它多种交流方式进行交流,多种交流方式之间可以相互重合:(9)海外华商网络文化的最初形成,主要是第一代华人移民通过以“文化播化”的方式把传统中国的“儒家思想”拟子从中国大陆根植于他们在海外的经济、生活活动中而实现的。其次,在华商网络中通过以“文化儒化”方式从而实现“儒家思想”拟子在华商网络中跨代的传播与保存。最后,由于外界环境的变化,海外华商因儒家文化而连接起来的关系也相应地经过了由情感自发、淡化以及基于经济利益而组建的三个阶段,贸易范围也因此相应从比较狭窄的当地贸易逐渐扩大为国际贸易;(10)华商网络内部成员间遵循信任与合作原则是有一定的经济条件的;(11)华商网络规模对于成员间的合作是至关重要的,如果网络小于支撑信任的最小规模,那么网络内部信任与合作的行为标准根本不可能建立起来,如果华商网络规模太大的话,会造成网络的维系成本太高,不利于成员间维持相互信任。因此,华商网络内部成员将会有动机去保持网络的最优成员结构;(12)在缺乏外部治理机制的条件下,单纯的嵌入关系治理会限制华商网络规模的扩张,因此只有相机引入有效的外部治理机制,才能从根本上扩大华商网络的规模,如利用华商大会制定相对规范的行为准则、惩罚机制,利用华商大会(和各种商会)建立起众多的信息认证制度等;(13)亚洲华商网络与/CT(Information and CommunicationTechnologies)的广泛运用都促进了中国对外贸易的发展,但这两者所起的作用是不平衡的,亚洲华商网络所起的作用要远远大于ICT所起的作用,而且这两者之间也存在着一种相互促进与相互抑制的交互作用,信息通讯技术网络的改善会明显抑制亚洲华商网络对中国进口贸易的促进作用,但同时信息通讯技术网络的改善对亚洲华商网络促进中国出口贸易的效应影响不大;(14)华商网络可以克服FDI中的不正式壁垒(投资合同执行不力、投资机会信息不充分等),从而对中国FDI的流入起到一定的促进作用,母国与中国的华商网络关系密度每增加1%,将会导致流入中国的FDI增加4.316%,而且随着时间的推移,华商网络对FDI流入中国的促进效应会逐渐加强;(15)海外华商对中国大陆的直接投资占了流入中国FDI的绝大部份,但所占比例在逐渐下降,近十年来海外华商对中国大陆投资的发展趋势是从东南沿海向长江三角洲、环渤海湾进行转移,海外华商通常会把他的投资投向小城市与乡镇,而并不是投向原有的老工业区,华商的投资要比外国投资商的投资更为稳定,华商企业倾向于开展加工贸易,华商对华投资的动因可以归结为:“乡情说”、“机会说”、“交易成本说”,海外华商网络经营开始重视新兴的服务贸易方式,作为新跨国公司形式的代表——无母国型跨国公司,华人跨国公司在近年来得到很大发展。
Recently, many economists and sociologists are devoting themselves to the research of social and business networks. In this dissertation, we investigate the Ethnic Chinese Networks in international trade. The dissertation consists of five chapters, with the arrangement of each chapter as follows:
Chapter 1---The Literature Review
Chapter 2---The Economic Analysis of the Ethnic Chinese Networks (I)
Chapter 3---The Economic Analysis of the Ethnic Chinese Networks (II)
Chapter 4---Analysis of the Communication、Cooperation Mechanism and Network Scale of the Ethnic Chinese Networks
Chapter 5---Empirical Study on the Ethnic Chinese Networks on International Trade and Inflow-FDI of China
The main discoveries of this dissertation are as follows:
1、The Ethnic Chinese Networks can decrease the cost of international trade; it also can produce "immigration preference effect" and "import substitution effect".
2、Through technology diffusion mechanism in Global Commodity Chains, the Ethnic Chinese Networks improve the technology in China and east-south Asia.
3、The Ethnic Chinese Networks can produce an "inverse U effect" on the economic growth.
4、The Ethnic Chinese Networks' role of network intermediaries between Chinese merchant and foreign merchant are becoming more and more important.
5、The Ethnic Chinese Networks can monopolize the industry and international trade of the inhabit country, but this monopolized power is decreasing with the emergence of super chain store and the changing environment.
6、In different countries, The Ethnic Chinese Networks can form different industry clusters.
7、There are an adverse relationship between the communication ability and the member's norm of the Ethnic Chinese Networks.
8、There are many communication channels within the Ethnic Chinese Networks, and these channels can interaction each other.
9、The cooperation culture of the Ethnic Chinese Networks is formed through the cultural diffusion and enculturation effects.
10、Under restricted economic conditions can the Ethnic Chinese Networks form the cooperation and trust behavior principle.
11、The Ethnic Chinese Networks' member have the incentive to maintain the optimal network scale because it is vital for network member's cooperation.
12、It needs effective exterior govern mechanism to expand the Ethnic Chinese Networks scale.
13、There are obvious interactions between the Asia Chinese Networks and ICT(Information and Communication Technologies) 's network on international trade.
14、The Ethnic Chinese Networks can decrease informal barriers of inflow-FDI, 1% increase network density can increase 4.316% of inflow-FDI of China. But this effect reduces with time elapsing.
15、Recently there are some distinct characteristics of inflow-FDI of China, especially for overseas Chinese investment.
通过理论分析和实证分析,作者发现:(1)海外华商网络的存在可以明显减少彼此的交易成本,同时产生“移民偏好”与“进口替代”效应;(2)通过“全球商品链”中贸易网络的技术传播途径,华商网络提高了中国以及东南亚地区企业的技术水平;(3)随着接受新技术的华商网络成员数量的变化,单个网络成员i接受新技术的倾向存在一种倒“U”型效应,进而对地区经济的发展产生两种相反的影响;(4)海外华商充当外国贸易商(或投资商)与其他华商的中介地位在变得愈加重要,而并没有象很多学者所预期的那样趋于削弱;(5)存在着华商垄断居住国本地商业的事实,从而改变了国际贸易中的市场结构和贸易流量,但是由于外部环境的变化,如贸易与投资自由化步伐的加快以及新贸易商与营销网络的出现(如超级连锁店)等因素都将会对华商网络构成挑战,因此华商网络不可能长期垄断贸易;(6)海外华商企业在华人较聚集的国家或地区产生集聚,亚洲华商主要倾向于贸易、金融、加工制造业等领域,欧洲华商则在不断深化以餐饮为主的服务行业,而美国华商则集中在房地产、电子、机械和IT产业;(7)华商网络区分内部成员的标准越严格,那么内部成员的沟通就越容易,反之,如果华商网络区分内部成员的标准越松散,那么内部成员的沟通就越为困难,合作也就相应地变得困难;(8)五缘关系是华商之间相互交流的基础,在此基础上,建立了多种联系机构,其中最高级别的交流机构为世界华商大会,华商之间的交流是开放式的,华商可以随意加入或退出任一社团(帮会)或行业协会,华商也可同时通过其它多种交流方式进行交流,多种交流方式之间可以相互重合:(9)海外华商网络文化的最初形成,主要是第一代华人移民通过以“文化播化”的方式把传统中国的“儒家思想”拟子从中国大陆根植于他们在海外的经济、生活活动中而实现的。其次,在华商网络中通过以“文化儒化”方式从而实现“儒家思想”拟子在华商网络中跨代的传播与保存。最后,由于外界环境的变化,海外华商因儒家文化而连接起来的关系也相应地经过了由情感自发、淡化以及基于经济利益而组建的三个阶段,贸易范围也因此相应从比较狭窄的当地贸易逐渐扩大为国际贸易;(10)华商网络内部成员间遵循信任与合作原则是有一定的经济条件的;(11)华商网络规模对于成员间的合作是至关重要的,如果网络小于支撑信任的最小规模,那么网络内部信任与合作的行为标准根本不可能建立起来,如果华商网络规模太大的话,会造成网络的维系成本太高,不利于成员间维持相互信任。因此,华商网络内部成员将会有动机去保持网络的最优成员结构;(12)在缺乏外部治理机制的条件下,单纯的嵌入关系治理会限制华商网络规模的扩张,因此只有相机引入有效的外部治理机制,才能从根本上扩大华商网络的规模,如利用华商大会制定相对规范的行为准则、惩罚机制,利用华商大会(和各种商会)建立起众多的信息认证制度等;(13)亚洲华商网络与/CT(Information and CommunicationTechnologies)的广泛运用都促进了中国对外贸易的发展,但这两者所起的作用是不平衡的,亚洲华商网络所起的作用要远远大于ICT所起的作用,而且这两者之间也存在着一种相互促进与相互抑制的交互作用,信息通讯技术网络的改善会明显抑制亚洲华商网络对中国进口贸易的促进作用,但同时信息通讯技术网络的改善对亚洲华商网络促进中国出口贸易的效应影响不大;(14)华商网络可以克服FDI中的不正式壁垒(投资合同执行不力、投资机会信息不充分等),从而对中国FDI的流入起到一定的促进作用,母国与中国的华商网络关系密度每增加1%,将会导致流入中国的FDI增加4.316%,而且随着时间的推移,华商网络对FDI流入中国的促进效应会逐渐加强;(15)海外华商对中国大陆的直接投资占了流入中国FDI的绝大部份,但所占比例在逐渐下降,近十年来海外华商对中国大陆投资的发展趋势是从东南沿海向长江三角洲、环渤海湾进行转移,海外华商通常会把他的投资投向小城市与乡镇,而并不是投向原有的老工业区,华商的投资要比外国投资商的投资更为稳定,华商企业倾向于开展加工贸易,华商对华投资的动因可以归结为:“乡情说”、“机会说”、“交易成本说”,海外华商网络经营开始重视新兴的服务贸易方式,作为新跨国公司形式的代表——无母国型跨国公司,华人跨国公司在近年来得到很大发展。
Recently, many economists and sociologists are devoting themselves to the research of social and business networks. In this dissertation, we investigate the Ethnic Chinese Networks in international trade. The dissertation consists of five chapters, with the arrangement of each chapter as follows:
Chapter 1---The Literature Review
Chapter 2---The Economic Analysis of the Ethnic Chinese Networks (I)
Chapter 3---The Economic Analysis of the Ethnic Chinese Networks (II)
Chapter 4---Analysis of the Communication、Cooperation Mechanism and Network Scale of the Ethnic Chinese Networks
Chapter 5---Empirical Study on the Ethnic Chinese Networks on International Trade and Inflow-FDI of China
The main discoveries of this dissertation are as follows:
1、The Ethnic Chinese Networks can decrease the cost of international trade; it also can produce "immigration preference effect" and "import substitution effect".
2、Through technology diffusion mechanism in Global Commodity Chains, the Ethnic Chinese Networks improve the technology in China and east-south Asia.
3、The Ethnic Chinese Networks can produce an "inverse U effect" on the economic growth.
4、The Ethnic Chinese Networks' role of network intermediaries between Chinese merchant and foreign merchant are becoming more and more important.
5、The Ethnic Chinese Networks can monopolize the industry and international trade of the inhabit country, but this monopolized power is decreasing with the emergence of super chain store and the changing environment.
6、In different countries, The Ethnic Chinese Networks can form different industry clusters.
7、There are an adverse relationship between the communication ability and the member's norm of the Ethnic Chinese Networks.
8、There are many communication channels within the Ethnic Chinese Networks, and these channels can interaction each other.
9、The cooperation culture of the Ethnic Chinese Networks is formed through the cultural diffusion and enculturation effects.
10、Under restricted economic conditions can the Ethnic Chinese Networks form the cooperation and trust behavior principle.
11、The Ethnic Chinese Networks' member have the incentive to maintain the optimal network scale because it is vital for network member's cooperation.
12、It needs effective exterior govern mechanism to expand the Ethnic Chinese Networks scale.
13、There are obvious interactions between the Asia Chinese Networks and ICT(Information and Communication Technologies) 's network on international trade.
14、The Ethnic Chinese Networks can decrease informal barriers of inflow-FDI, 1% increase network density can increase 4.316% of inflow-FDI of China. But this effect reduces with time elapsing.
15、Recently there are some distinct characteristics of inflow-FDI of China, especially for overseas Chinese investment.
引文
[1]John McCallum,1995;Daniel Trefler,1995;John Helliwell,1998.
[1]山本勋,1992,日本经济新闻
[2]冯久玲.1998,《亚洲的新路》序言:“21世纪的资本主义和东亚”,经济日报出版社,第19页
[3]福布斯,1994年7月18日,P138-144
[4]香港《信报》,1995年11月16日
[5]Yu Chunghsun edited.Ethnic Chinese-Their Economy,Politics and Culture[M].Tokyo,The Japan Times Ltd,20002,pp.7.
[6]彼德·德鲁克,《巨变时代的管理》,机械工业出版社,2006,P155。
[7]John Kao.The Worldwide Wed of Chinese Business[J].Harvard Business Review,Harch-April 1993,P26.
[1]转引自叶鹏飞:《海外华人与“新黄祸论”》,载新加坡《联合早报》2001年3月22日
[2]世界华商经济年鉴,1996/1997年,第5、7页。
[1]见Avner Grief(1993),Janet Tai Landa(1994),Kranton(1996),Alessandra Casellaand James E.Rauch(2002).
[2]见John McMillan and Christopher Woodruff(1999).
[3]见Brian Uzzi(1996).
[4]见Toshihiro Nishiguchi(1994).
[5]如果在网络内部一人经常与对方进行交易,那么他对交易对象的相关特征应该有一定的了解,所以说这个定义更泛一些。
[1]海外华人社团的国际化:动力、作用、前景,华人华侨历史研究,1998年第1期,P48-58.
[1]See Ch' ng,D.The Overseas Chinese Entrepreneurs in East Asia:Background,Business Practices and International Networks[M].CEDAMonograph M100,1993.
[2]See Ch' ng,D.;and Sato,Y.The Salim Group in Indonesia:The development and behaviour of the largest conglomerate in Southeast Asia[J].The Developing Economies,December,1993.
[3]Sato,Y.The Salim Group in Indonesia:The Development and Behavior of the Largest Conglomerate in Southeast Asia[J].The Developing Economies,1993,31(4):408-441.
[4]Sato,Y.The Salim Group in Indonesia:The Development and Behavior of the Largest Conglomerate in Southeast Asia[J].The Developing Economies,1993,31(4):408-441.
[1]See Business Review Southeast Asia,Southeast Asia Business Omnibook,Options Publishing,1995,pp.493.
[1]The Nikkei Weekly,"Osaka groups seek overseas Chinese ties",30 May 1994.
[2]See Salim Group,An Overview of the Salim Group,Jakarta,1993,p.36.
[3]See The Australian,"SPHC plans 20 hotels in Indonesia~,15 November 1994.
[4]See Australian Financial Review,"Wesfarmers finds a 'know-who' joint venture partner",23 November 1994.
[5]See Australian Financial Review.'Davids on verge of Thai food venture'.21 November 1994.
[1]Barr,A.,2000,"Social capital and technical information flows in the Ghnanaian manufacturing sector," in Oxford Economic Papers,Vol.52.
[1]见Karl Fields(1995。P.214).Enterprise and the State in Korea and TaiWan.Ithaca:Cornell U.
[1]《新生代华商:走向新的繁荣》,引自《关联经济:一种新的财富视角》,杜新著,新华出版社,2007年9月。
[2]中国商报[N],1993-5-4.
[1]林文镜在“第三届华人论坛”上的发言,载《侨务工作研究》2004年第4期,第15页。
[1]Constance Lever-Tracy,David Ip and Noel Tracy,The Chinese Diaspora and Mainland China,MacMilan Press,London,1996,p.107.
[2]Noel Tracy and Constance Lever-Tracy,"A New Alliance for Profit:China' s Local Industries and the Chinese Diaspora",in Thomas Menkhoffand Solvay Gerke,eds.,Chinese Entrepreneurship and Asian Business Networks,Routlege Curzons,London,2002,pp.68269.
[3]See Kao,J.,'The worldwide web of Chinese business',Harvard Business Review,March-April 1993,p.32.
[1]“手推车”事件与欧洲华商难局,《财经》网络版,http://www.caijing.com.cn/zmb/huanqiu/2007-11-02/36512.shtml
[2]巴黎骚乱再次提醒中国商人,海外经商不能唯钱是论,新浪财经,http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/20051115/0101397371.shtml
[1]根据历年的数据估算,在这里假定中国华人占中国全人口的比例为0.97。
[2]http://www.chinaqw.com.cn/node2/nodel16/node119/node158/index.html.
[1]James Putzel,Non-Government Organization and Rural Poverty[A],G.Sidney Sillimanand Lela Garnar Noble,Organizing for Democracy:NGO,Civil Society and the Philippine State[C],Honolulu,University of Hawaii Press,1998.
[2]Gerard & Clark,The Politics of NGOs in South-East Asia:Participation and Protect in the Philippines[M],London,Routledge,1998.
[3]参见张鸣《交易成本--分析华商到华投资的新角度》(载于《商场现代化》2006年第2期)
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[1]转引自叶鹏飞:《海外华人与“新黄祸论”》,载新加坡《联合早报》2001年3月22日
[2]世界华商经济年鉴,1996/1997年,第5、7页。
[1]见Avner Grief(1993),Janet Tai Landa(1994),Kranton(1996),Alessandra Casellaand James E.Rauch(2002).
[2]见John McMillan and Christopher Woodruff(1999).
[3]见Brian Uzzi(1996).
[4]见Toshihiro Nishiguchi(1994).
[5]如果在网络内部一人经常与对方进行交易,那么他对交易对象的相关特征应该有一定的了解,所以说这个定义更泛一些。
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