人民币区域化问题研究
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摘要
布雷顿森林货币体系崩溃后,国际货币体系产生了巨大变化。欧元在欧洲一体化的推动下于1999年1月1日诞生,成为挑战美元的重要国际货币。北美地区在北美自由贸易协定的推动下,美元进一步巩固了在该地区的国际货币地位。东亚地区普遍采取出口导向的经济发展战略,由于美国是该地区重要的出口市场,出于稳定和发展贸易的考虑,东亚各国(日本除外)长期自发地选择钉住美元的汇率政策,并把对美元汇率的稳定作为经济政策的重要目标。世界经济格局中的三大经济区,并没有形成对应的三大货币区,东亚长期成为事实上的美元区。
中国是东亚地区最具增长潜力的经济大国和贸易大国,中国已经成为东亚各国最重要的经贸伙伴之一,稳定中国与东亚地区各国的经贸往来对中国和东亚地区的经济繁荣和稳定具有重要作用。然而,东亚事实上的美元区是包括中国在内的东亚地区经济持续稳定发展的重要隐忧。东亚部分国家钉住美元固定汇率制的崩溃是1997年底爆发亚洲金融危机的导火索。危机过后,东亚又回归了事实上的钉住美元汇率制度。为了防范危机的再次爆发,东亚货币金融合作应运而生,但进展缓慢。
中国作为该地区的经济大国和贸易大国,可以通过密切的经贸往来逐步在区域贸易中推行人民币计价和结算,把人民币区域化列入金融制度建设的日程安排,逐步实现人民币区域化。人民币区域化是人民币跨越国界实现货币职能的发展过程,是以市场为基础的货币选择结果,即人民币成为东亚区域贸易的支付媒介、计价单位和结算货币,进而逐步实现人民币作为区域内的国际债权、债务的记账单位和储备货币,并最终成为外汇市场上干预汇率的干预货币。人民币区域化是人民币国际化的战略选择。
本文的研究思路主要为两条主线,即人民币区域化过程中的市场力量和人民币区域化过程中的制度建设。人民币区域化过程中的市场力量主要是分析在东亚经贸合作和经贸往来中,人民币能否担当起区域内的核心货币并履行相应职能;人民币区域化过程中的制度建设主要是分析中国在外汇市场建设、资本项目开放和人民币自由兑换过程中,如何逐渐取消有关方面的管制以有利于人民币的跨境双向往来和投资,并且能够稳定国内经济和货币金融环境。此外,人民币区域化的过程就是人民币逐渐打破现行的国际货币体系,并成为国际货币体系重要一员的过程,在这一过程中,人民币必然遭遇现行国际货币体系主要国际货币的强有力竞争。本文以人民币国际化过程中的货币竞争与合作为主题来分析这一问题,国际货币的竞争者主要有美元、日元和欧元,而如何处理与这些货币之间的关系(汇率之间的联系)是人民币能够成功融入国际货币体系,并能够成为东亚区域的核心货币的关键。此外,人民币的国际化过程是为中国开创更加稳定的外部环境,在这一过程中必须兼顾国内经济金融环境的稳定。
本研究分为六部分,首先是前言部分,揭示本研究的理论和现实意义,以及人民币区域化的理论和现实基础;第一章以人民币区域化的经贸基础为主题,详细分析中国在东亚地区的经贸地位,中国与东亚主要国家的经济贸易关系等问题,因为经贸基础是人民币区域化的市场力量;第二章从当前国际货币格局下东亚国家汇率制度选择的困境出发,分析中国需要推动人民币区域化;第三章以人民币区域化的制度基础为主题,分析中国的相关金融制度安排,提出推动人民币区域化还需要在金融制度建设方面做出安排;第四章分析当前国际货币体系格局下人民币区域化与国际化的货币竞争问题,揭示人民币如何在美元主导的国际货币格局下,在东亚地区如何避开欧元、日元的竞争,成为东亚地区的“关键货币”(key currency);第五章分析人民币区域化过程中的国内政策协调,分析中国的货币政策、汇率政策、区域汇率协调等安排如何实现和人民币区域化协调发展。
本文可能的创新之处主要表现在如下几方面:
1.论述了人民币区域化是破解人民币汇率制度的出路。本文从国际货币体系的演进和东亚主要经济体在现行国际货币体系下的困境出发,分析人民币区域化是破解人民币汇率制度的战略选择,在人民币汇率制度的改革过程中推动人民币区域化,从另外一个角度剖析人民币汇率制度选择的路径。
2.论述了中国一方面可以借东亚货币合作推动人民币的国际化,另一方面还应该单方面地采取主动的措施推动人民币的区域化,谋求人民币在东亚货币合作中的主导地位。
3.论述了人民币区域化与人民币自由兑换的关系。本文认为中国应该在逐渐开放资本项目的过程中推动人民币区域化,进而实现人民币国际化,使资本项目的开放与国内金融体系的改革和完善结合起来,实现资本项目的开放、人民币的区域化的过程有机地结合。
本研究的不足之处主要体现在:其一、人民币区域化或国际化是一项宏大的工程,牵涉的问题很多,本文未能就所有方面进行论述和研究,或许还有一些对人民币区域化影响重大的问题没能纳入本研究而成为本研究的重大失误;其二、人民币区域化是一个实践性很强的工程,本文只是分析了中国需要而且可以推行在区域内贸易中使用人民币作为计价、支付和结算货币,提出了现有制度架构中如何做出一些调整,以有利于区域贸易中使用人民币,但是却没有对如何实施作进一步分析和研究,而这些却是落实人民币区域化的重要基础。
After the Bretton Woods system collapsed, the international money system has taking placed great change. Euro has been introduced in January 1st, 1999, which is derived by the force of European integrative trend. Now, it has been challenged USA dollar as a key international currency. In North American, USA dollar has consolidate the role of international currency, especially by the force of the North American Free Trade Agreement. In East Asia, the USA dollar also has been taken as international currency. The main reasons were that the American market was the main export market and the East Asia countries have been taking the export oriented economical development stratagem. Owing to keep the export stabilization, the East Asia countries have been choice keeping the exchange rate to USA dollar stabilization as a key policy objective. Then, in despite of there are three main area in world economical structure, no three main international currency area were accordingly formed. The East Asia was a de facto dollar area.
China is the most important country in East Asia because of its economical and trade magnitude. China has been one of the most important trade parterres among the East Asia countries. It is important to keep the trade stabilization between China and the East Asia countries, in that it is a key factor to keep the East Asia flourish and stability. However, the de facto dollar exchange rate system was the great hidden trouble to keep this area stabilization and continual development. The collapse of exchange rate to pegging dollar was the fuze of Asia financial crisis in 1997. But, after conquered with this crisis, much of countries in the East Asia have been choosed de facto pegging with dollar again. For the sake of defend to the crisis, the monetary cooperation was introduced in East Asia, but its step was tardiness and could not resolve the plight.
China is a key trade partner in East Asia. Prompting to use Renminbi (RMB) as quotation currency in trade and taking the RMB regionalization as the main goal in the building of financial system, China could practice the RMB regionalization goal. RMB regionalization is the process of RMB taking as international currency in East Asia. This process is the result of market choice, of which been taken RMB as transactions currency , quotation currency and asset currency in private department, then it also taken as intervention currency, unit-of-account currency and reserve currency in office department. RMB regionalization is the tactic choice of RMB internationalization.
This paper will adopt two clues to research the theme. The one is market force and the other one is institution construction on RMB regionalization path. On dealing with market force, we will mainly analyze the cooperation on economy and trade. RMB would be used in economic action as international currency and will be performed one or all of money’s responsibility. On dealing with the institution construction, we will analyze the development of foreign exchange market, the openness of capital account and the process on free exchange with RMB and so on. China would be reformed much in order to facility the RMB exchange and investment across the border between China and the East Asia countries. On other hand, China must keep stability on this process. Furthermore, on the RMB regionalization process, it would challenge on the past international currency construction and incur to the competition coming from the existing international currencies. This paper shall use the RMB’s competition and cooperation of currency on the process to internationalization to analyze this issue. The main competitors are USA dollar, Euro and Japanese Yen. The tactic on dealing with these international currencies in the RMB regionalization is a key factor to RMB. What is more, China must create a steady economic and financial environment on the process of RMB internationalization.
This paper has six parts. The first one is Preface, in which discloses the aim on dealing with this research from the view on theory and realism and shows the foundation of RMB regionalization. In Chapter one, it shall analyze the role of China in East Asia and the relationship between China and other countries in East Asia. The aim to adopt this theme is that the market is the key force to perform currency internationalization. In Chapter two, it shall analyze which one is necessary for China to get over the difficult in recent international currency building. The RMB regionalization is one choice of them. In Chapter three, it shall analyze the financial arrangement to facilitate the RMB regionalization on the basis of institution foundation. In Chapter four, it shall analyze the currency competition of RMB regionalization. It will disclose that RMB would take challenge coming from Dollar, Euro and Yen. In order to evade the competition on Euro and Yen, RMB will keep closed relation with Dollar. In the end, this paper shall focus on the policy coordination and it shall analyze the monetary policy, exchange rate policy and the policy cooperation in East Asia.
There are some innovations in this paper, in which shows below:
First, this paper shows that the RMB regionalization is the outlet for resolve the puzzle on RMB’s exchange rate system. It analyses the evolvement of international currency and the puzzle of RMB in international currency system, then it points out that the RMB regionalization is one of choice to get over this puzzle. It would discuss that the RMB regionalization would be achieved from the reformation of exchange rate institution.
Second, this paper points out that China could prompt RMB regionalization from two routes. One is to participate in the East Asia’s cooperation, the other one is to take measures actively and achieve the leading role in the process of cooperation of East Asia.
Third, it shall analyses the relationship between the RMB regionalization and the freedom of RMB exchange with other currencies. This paper shows that China ought to prompt RMB regionalization on the openness of capital account and perform RMB internationalization gradually. Then, it will perform the combination with the RMB internationalization and the openness of capital account.
There are some regrets in this research. First, this paper only analyses small topics about RMB regionalization & internationalization. Then, it may omit some important content for the theme of RMB regionalization. Second, the RMB regionalization is a practicably project. This paper only analyses the structure of RMB regionalization from the use of RMB as medium of exchange and quotation currency in trade. It could not analyze the material operation and practice of RMB in trade process, but they are important foundation to carry out RMB regionalization.
中国是东亚地区最具增长潜力的经济大国和贸易大国,中国已经成为东亚各国最重要的经贸伙伴之一,稳定中国与东亚地区各国的经贸往来对中国和东亚地区的经济繁荣和稳定具有重要作用。然而,东亚事实上的美元区是包括中国在内的东亚地区经济持续稳定发展的重要隐忧。东亚部分国家钉住美元固定汇率制的崩溃是1997年底爆发亚洲金融危机的导火索。危机过后,东亚又回归了事实上的钉住美元汇率制度。为了防范危机的再次爆发,东亚货币金融合作应运而生,但进展缓慢。
中国作为该地区的经济大国和贸易大国,可以通过密切的经贸往来逐步在区域贸易中推行人民币计价和结算,把人民币区域化列入金融制度建设的日程安排,逐步实现人民币区域化。人民币区域化是人民币跨越国界实现货币职能的发展过程,是以市场为基础的货币选择结果,即人民币成为东亚区域贸易的支付媒介、计价单位和结算货币,进而逐步实现人民币作为区域内的国际债权、债务的记账单位和储备货币,并最终成为外汇市场上干预汇率的干预货币。人民币区域化是人民币国际化的战略选择。
本文的研究思路主要为两条主线,即人民币区域化过程中的市场力量和人民币区域化过程中的制度建设。人民币区域化过程中的市场力量主要是分析在东亚经贸合作和经贸往来中,人民币能否担当起区域内的核心货币并履行相应职能;人民币区域化过程中的制度建设主要是分析中国在外汇市场建设、资本项目开放和人民币自由兑换过程中,如何逐渐取消有关方面的管制以有利于人民币的跨境双向往来和投资,并且能够稳定国内经济和货币金融环境。此外,人民币区域化的过程就是人民币逐渐打破现行的国际货币体系,并成为国际货币体系重要一员的过程,在这一过程中,人民币必然遭遇现行国际货币体系主要国际货币的强有力竞争。本文以人民币国际化过程中的货币竞争与合作为主题来分析这一问题,国际货币的竞争者主要有美元、日元和欧元,而如何处理与这些货币之间的关系(汇率之间的联系)是人民币能够成功融入国际货币体系,并能够成为东亚区域的核心货币的关键。此外,人民币的国际化过程是为中国开创更加稳定的外部环境,在这一过程中必须兼顾国内经济金融环境的稳定。
本研究分为六部分,首先是前言部分,揭示本研究的理论和现实意义,以及人民币区域化的理论和现实基础;第一章以人民币区域化的经贸基础为主题,详细分析中国在东亚地区的经贸地位,中国与东亚主要国家的经济贸易关系等问题,因为经贸基础是人民币区域化的市场力量;第二章从当前国际货币格局下东亚国家汇率制度选择的困境出发,分析中国需要推动人民币区域化;第三章以人民币区域化的制度基础为主题,分析中国的相关金融制度安排,提出推动人民币区域化还需要在金融制度建设方面做出安排;第四章分析当前国际货币体系格局下人民币区域化与国际化的货币竞争问题,揭示人民币如何在美元主导的国际货币格局下,在东亚地区如何避开欧元、日元的竞争,成为东亚地区的“关键货币”(key currency);第五章分析人民币区域化过程中的国内政策协调,分析中国的货币政策、汇率政策、区域汇率协调等安排如何实现和人民币区域化协调发展。
本文可能的创新之处主要表现在如下几方面:
1.论述了人民币区域化是破解人民币汇率制度的出路。本文从国际货币体系的演进和东亚主要经济体在现行国际货币体系下的困境出发,分析人民币区域化是破解人民币汇率制度的战略选择,在人民币汇率制度的改革过程中推动人民币区域化,从另外一个角度剖析人民币汇率制度选择的路径。
2.论述了中国一方面可以借东亚货币合作推动人民币的国际化,另一方面还应该单方面地采取主动的措施推动人民币的区域化,谋求人民币在东亚货币合作中的主导地位。
3.论述了人民币区域化与人民币自由兑换的关系。本文认为中国应该在逐渐开放资本项目的过程中推动人民币区域化,进而实现人民币国际化,使资本项目的开放与国内金融体系的改革和完善结合起来,实现资本项目的开放、人民币的区域化的过程有机地结合。
本研究的不足之处主要体现在:其一、人民币区域化或国际化是一项宏大的工程,牵涉的问题很多,本文未能就所有方面进行论述和研究,或许还有一些对人民币区域化影响重大的问题没能纳入本研究而成为本研究的重大失误;其二、人民币区域化是一个实践性很强的工程,本文只是分析了中国需要而且可以推行在区域内贸易中使用人民币作为计价、支付和结算货币,提出了现有制度架构中如何做出一些调整,以有利于区域贸易中使用人民币,但是却没有对如何实施作进一步分析和研究,而这些却是落实人民币区域化的重要基础。
After the Bretton Woods system collapsed, the international money system has taking placed great change. Euro has been introduced in January 1st, 1999, which is derived by the force of European integrative trend. Now, it has been challenged USA dollar as a key international currency. In North American, USA dollar has consolidate the role of international currency, especially by the force of the North American Free Trade Agreement. In East Asia, the USA dollar also has been taken as international currency. The main reasons were that the American market was the main export market and the East Asia countries have been taking the export oriented economical development stratagem. Owing to keep the export stabilization, the East Asia countries have been choice keeping the exchange rate to USA dollar stabilization as a key policy objective. Then, in despite of there are three main area in world economical structure, no three main international currency area were accordingly formed. The East Asia was a de facto dollar area.
China is the most important country in East Asia because of its economical and trade magnitude. China has been one of the most important trade parterres among the East Asia countries. It is important to keep the trade stabilization between China and the East Asia countries, in that it is a key factor to keep the East Asia flourish and stability. However, the de facto dollar exchange rate system was the great hidden trouble to keep this area stabilization and continual development. The collapse of exchange rate to pegging dollar was the fuze of Asia financial crisis in 1997. But, after conquered with this crisis, much of countries in the East Asia have been choosed de facto pegging with dollar again. For the sake of defend to the crisis, the monetary cooperation was introduced in East Asia, but its step was tardiness and could not resolve the plight.
China is a key trade partner in East Asia. Prompting to use Renminbi (RMB) as quotation currency in trade and taking the RMB regionalization as the main goal in the building of financial system, China could practice the RMB regionalization goal. RMB regionalization is the process of RMB taking as international currency in East Asia. This process is the result of market choice, of which been taken RMB as transactions currency , quotation currency and asset currency in private department, then it also taken as intervention currency, unit-of-account currency and reserve currency in office department. RMB regionalization is the tactic choice of RMB internationalization.
This paper will adopt two clues to research the theme. The one is market force and the other one is institution construction on RMB regionalization path. On dealing with market force, we will mainly analyze the cooperation on economy and trade. RMB would be used in economic action as international currency and will be performed one or all of money’s responsibility. On dealing with the institution construction, we will analyze the development of foreign exchange market, the openness of capital account and the process on free exchange with RMB and so on. China would be reformed much in order to facility the RMB exchange and investment across the border between China and the East Asia countries. On other hand, China must keep stability on this process. Furthermore, on the RMB regionalization process, it would challenge on the past international currency construction and incur to the competition coming from the existing international currencies. This paper shall use the RMB’s competition and cooperation of currency on the process to internationalization to analyze this issue. The main competitors are USA dollar, Euro and Japanese Yen. The tactic on dealing with these international currencies in the RMB regionalization is a key factor to RMB. What is more, China must create a steady economic and financial environment on the process of RMB internationalization.
This paper has six parts. The first one is Preface, in which discloses the aim on dealing with this research from the view on theory and realism and shows the foundation of RMB regionalization. In Chapter one, it shall analyze the role of China in East Asia and the relationship between China and other countries in East Asia. The aim to adopt this theme is that the market is the key force to perform currency internationalization. In Chapter two, it shall analyze which one is necessary for China to get over the difficult in recent international currency building. The RMB regionalization is one choice of them. In Chapter three, it shall analyze the financial arrangement to facilitate the RMB regionalization on the basis of institution foundation. In Chapter four, it shall analyze the currency competition of RMB regionalization. It will disclose that RMB would take challenge coming from Dollar, Euro and Yen. In order to evade the competition on Euro and Yen, RMB will keep closed relation with Dollar. In the end, this paper shall focus on the policy coordination and it shall analyze the monetary policy, exchange rate policy and the policy cooperation in East Asia.
There are some innovations in this paper, in which shows below:
First, this paper shows that the RMB regionalization is the outlet for resolve the puzzle on RMB’s exchange rate system. It analyses the evolvement of international currency and the puzzle of RMB in international currency system, then it points out that the RMB regionalization is one of choice to get over this puzzle. It would discuss that the RMB regionalization would be achieved from the reformation of exchange rate institution.
Second, this paper points out that China could prompt RMB regionalization from two routes. One is to participate in the East Asia’s cooperation, the other one is to take measures actively and achieve the leading role in the process of cooperation of East Asia.
Third, it shall analyses the relationship between the RMB regionalization and the freedom of RMB exchange with other currencies. This paper shows that China ought to prompt RMB regionalization on the openness of capital account and perform RMB internationalization gradually. Then, it will perform the combination with the RMB internationalization and the openness of capital account.
There are some regrets in this research. First, this paper only analyses small topics about RMB regionalization & internationalization. Then, it may omit some important content for the theme of RMB regionalization. Second, the RMB regionalization is a practicably project. This paper only analyses the structure of RMB regionalization from the use of RMB as medium of exchange and quotation currency in trade. It could not analyze the material operation and practice of RMB in trade process, but they are important foundation to carry out RMB regionalization.
引文
14资料来源《2007年上半年中国国际收支报告》,网址:http://www.safe.gov.cn/model_safe/tjsj/tjsj_detail.jsp?ID=110700000000000000,5&id=5
[1]巴曙松(2002):《把香港打造为人民币离岸金融中心?》,《经济月刊》第4期。
[2]巴曙松(2003a):《人民币国际化的边贸之路》,《浙江经济》第15期。
[3]巴曙松(2003b):《香港离岸人民币市场的发展路径及其影响》,《经济前沿》第10期。
[4]巴曙松(2007):《人民币国际化——证券业受益几何》,《第一财经日报》2007年10月26日。
[5]曹红辉(2006):《国际化战略中的人民币区域化》,《中国金融》第5期。
[6]陈雨露、王芳、杨明(2005):《作为国家竞争战略的货币国际化:美元的经验证据》,《经济研究》第2期。
[7]陈雨露(2004):《国际货币竞争中的美元贬值》,《中国金融》第10期。
[8]陈彩虹(2003):《经济全球化中现代国别货币角色的转换及未来》,《东南学术》第6期。
[9]陈小五(2004):《中国外汇市场的培育与管理》,复旦大学博士论文。
[10]丁一兵(2004):《经济发展中的汇率制度选择》,吉林大学博士论文。
[11]杜辉(2005):《货币国际化的规律探索及对人民币国际化的启示》,东北师范大学硕士学位论文。
[12]多恩布什、费希尔(1997):《宏观经济学(第六版)》,中国人民大学出版社。
[13]樊纲等(2006):《国际贸易结构分析:贸易品的技术分布》,《经济研究》第8期。
[14]侯荣华(1999):《宏观经济政策调控力度及协调分析》,中国计划出版社。
[15]胡定核、程海泳(1996):《人民币国际化的条件》,《发展论坛》第1期。
[16]华尔特·罗斯托(2007):(王琛等译)《概念与交锋——市场观念六十年》,中国编译出版社。
[17]姜波克(1994):《人民币自由兑换论》,立信会计出版社。
[18]景学成(2000):《论人民币基本可兑换》,《财贸经济》第8期。
[19]兰德宁·亨宁(2005):《东亚金融合作》,中国金融出版社。
[20]李晓、李俊久、丁一兵(2004):《论人民币的亚洲化》,《世界经济》第2期。
[21]李晓、丁一兵(2006):《亚洲的超越》,当代中国出版社。
[22]赵海宽(2003):《人民币可能发展成为世界货币之一》,《经济研究》第3期。
[23]李翀(2002),《论人民币的区域化》,《河北学刊》第9期。
[24]郑凌云(2006):《人民币区域化与边贸本币结算功能扩展》,《国际贸易》第7期。
[25]李瑶(2003):《非国际货币、货币国际化与资本项目可兑换》,《金融研究》第8期。
[26]李婧(2003):《人民币汇率制度改革取向及退出战略》,《国际经济评论》,第1-2期。
[27]李婧、管涛、何帆:《人民币跨境流通的现状及其对中国经济的影响》,《管理世界》,第9期。
[28]李扬、尹中立(2004):《深圳与香港之间地下金融(汇兑)市场分析》,《国际经济评论》第5-6期。
[29]麦金农(2005):《美元本位下的汇率——东亚高储蓄两难》,中国金融出版社。
[30]麦金农、大野健一(1999):《美元与日元——化解美日两国的经济冲突》,上海远东出版社。
[31]蒙代尔(2003):《蒙代尔经济学文集——国际货币:过去、现在和未来》,中国金融出版社。
[32]牛筱颖(2007):《通货膨胀目标制——理论与实践》,社会科学文献出版社。
[33]潘理权(2000):《国际货币体系改革与人民币国际化》,《华东经济管理》第4期。
[34]宋建军(2005):《民间资本流入香港的形式》,《广东金融学院》第4期。
[35]徐明棋(2005):《从日圆国际化的经验教训看人民币国际化与区域化》,《世界经济研究》第12期。
[36]徐剑刚等(2007):《人民币参考一篮子货币机制的实证分析》,《上海财经大学学报》第1期。
[37]亚洲开发银行(2005):《东亚货币与金融一体化》,经济科学出版社。
[38]姚枝仲(2004):《不对称竞争压力与人民币的亚洲战略》,《世界经济与政治》第7期。
[39]王雅范、管涛、温建东(2002):《走向人民币可兑换:中国渐进主义的实践》,经济科学出版社。
[40]王国刚(2003):《资本账户开放与中国金融改革》,社会科学文献出版社。
[41]王晓天(2007):《开放条件下的货币政策规则研究》,中国金融出版社。
[42]伊藤隆敏等(2000):《东亚区域性货币体系》,载于杨栋梁主编:《国际货币金融体系与东亚》,天津人民出版社2000年中文版。
[43]易宪容(2003):《中国资本账户开放对香港经济的影响》,《中国流通经济》第9期。
[44]罗伯特·吉尔平(1989):《国际关系政治经济学》,经济科学出版社。
[45] [日]菊地悠二(2002):《日元国际化——进程与展望》,中国人民大学出版社。
[46][日]关志雄(2003):《亚洲货币一体化研究》,中国财政经济出版社。
[47]中国人民银行广州分行“人民币在港澳地区流通”课题组(2002):《关于人民币在港澳地区流通现状及发展趋势的调查——兼论人民币在港澳地区流通》,《南方金融》第6期。
[48]中国人民银行广州分行课题组(2006):《以港澳地区为人民币自由兑换试点推进人民币区域化》,《南方金融》第1期。
[49]曾宪久、胡定核、黄道平(1989):《中国金融国际化探讨》,《国际金融导刊》第3期。
[50]张斌(2004):《东亚区域汇率合作:中国视角》,《世界经济》第10期。
[51]张屹巍(1994):《从国际化的日元看人民币的国际化》,《国际金融导刊》第4期。
[52]赵庆明(2005):《人民币资本项目可兑换及国际化研究》,中国金融出版社。
[53]钟伟(2002):《略论人民币的国际化进程》,《世界经济》第3期。
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[1]巴曙松(2002):《把香港打造为人民币离岸金融中心?》,《经济月刊》第4期。
[2]巴曙松(2003a):《人民币国际化的边贸之路》,《浙江经济》第15期。
[3]巴曙松(2003b):《香港离岸人民币市场的发展路径及其影响》,《经济前沿》第10期。
[4]巴曙松(2007):《人民币国际化——证券业受益几何》,《第一财经日报》2007年10月26日。
[5]曹红辉(2006):《国际化战略中的人民币区域化》,《中国金融》第5期。
[6]陈雨露、王芳、杨明(2005):《作为国家竞争战略的货币国际化:美元的经验证据》,《经济研究》第2期。
[7]陈雨露(2004):《国际货币竞争中的美元贬值》,《中国金融》第10期。
[8]陈彩虹(2003):《经济全球化中现代国别货币角色的转换及未来》,《东南学术》第6期。
[9]陈小五(2004):《中国外汇市场的培育与管理》,复旦大学博士论文。
[10]丁一兵(2004):《经济发展中的汇率制度选择》,吉林大学博士论文。
[11]杜辉(2005):《货币国际化的规律探索及对人民币国际化的启示》,东北师范大学硕士学位论文。
[12]多恩布什、费希尔(1997):《宏观经济学(第六版)》,中国人民大学出版社。
[13]樊纲等(2006):《国际贸易结构分析:贸易品的技术分布》,《经济研究》第8期。
[14]侯荣华(1999):《宏观经济政策调控力度及协调分析》,中国计划出版社。
[15]胡定核、程海泳(1996):《人民币国际化的条件》,《发展论坛》第1期。
[16]华尔特·罗斯托(2007):(王琛等译)《概念与交锋——市场观念六十年》,中国编译出版社。
[17]姜波克(1994):《人民币自由兑换论》,立信会计出版社。
[18]景学成(2000):《论人民币基本可兑换》,《财贸经济》第8期。
[19]兰德宁·亨宁(2005):《东亚金融合作》,中国金融出版社。
[20]李晓、李俊久、丁一兵(2004):《论人民币的亚洲化》,《世界经济》第2期。
[21]李晓、丁一兵(2006):《亚洲的超越》,当代中国出版社。
[22]赵海宽(2003):《人民币可能发展成为世界货币之一》,《经济研究》第3期。
[23]李翀(2002),《论人民币的区域化》,《河北学刊》第9期。
[24]郑凌云(2006):《人民币区域化与边贸本币结算功能扩展》,《国际贸易》第7期。
[25]李瑶(2003):《非国际货币、货币国际化与资本项目可兑换》,《金融研究》第8期。
[26]李婧(2003):《人民币汇率制度改革取向及退出战略》,《国际经济评论》,第1-2期。
[27]李婧、管涛、何帆:《人民币跨境流通的现状及其对中国经济的影响》,《管理世界》,第9期。
[28]李扬、尹中立(2004):《深圳与香港之间地下金融(汇兑)市场分析》,《国际经济评论》第5-6期。
[29]麦金农(2005):《美元本位下的汇率——东亚高储蓄两难》,中国金融出版社。
[30]麦金农、大野健一(1999):《美元与日元——化解美日两国的经济冲突》,上海远东出版社。
[31]蒙代尔(2003):《蒙代尔经济学文集——国际货币:过去、现在和未来》,中国金融出版社。
[32]牛筱颖(2007):《通货膨胀目标制——理论与实践》,社会科学文献出版社。
[33]潘理权(2000):《国际货币体系改革与人民币国际化》,《华东经济管理》第4期。
[34]宋建军(2005):《民间资本流入香港的形式》,《广东金融学院》第4期。
[35]徐明棋(2005):《从日圆国际化的经验教训看人民币国际化与区域化》,《世界经济研究》第12期。
[36]徐剑刚等(2007):《人民币参考一篮子货币机制的实证分析》,《上海财经大学学报》第1期。
[37]亚洲开发银行(2005):《东亚货币与金融一体化》,经济科学出版社。
[38]姚枝仲(2004):《不对称竞争压力与人民币的亚洲战略》,《世界经济与政治》第7期。
[39]王雅范、管涛、温建东(2002):《走向人民币可兑换:中国渐进主义的实践》,经济科学出版社。
[40]王国刚(2003):《资本账户开放与中国金融改革》,社会科学文献出版社。
[41]王晓天(2007):《开放条件下的货币政策规则研究》,中国金融出版社。
[42]伊藤隆敏等(2000):《东亚区域性货币体系》,载于杨栋梁主编:《国际货币金融体系与东亚》,天津人民出版社2000年中文版。
[43]易宪容(2003):《中国资本账户开放对香港经济的影响》,《中国流通经济》第9期。
[44]罗伯特·吉尔平(1989):《国际关系政治经济学》,经济科学出版社。
[45] [日]菊地悠二(2002):《日元国际化——进程与展望》,中国人民大学出版社。
[46][日]关志雄(2003):《亚洲货币一体化研究》,中国财政经济出版社。
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