大型活动安全风险模糊评价方法及预警管理系统设计
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摘要
近年来大型活动的数量、规模、国际化程度呈逐年上升态势,但据我国公安机关安全检查情况调查,62%的大型活动存在各种安全问题。举办大型活动具有人群聚集、情况复杂的特点,容易产生安全隐患和管理上的疏漏,极易导致灾难性事故的发生。因此,进行大型活动安全风险与预警的研究是非常及时、重要和有意义的。本研究依托国家科技支撑“十一五”计划《社会治安风险、动态预警技术研究》课题,在对大型活动风险因素评价的基础上建立预警系统,旨在为大型活动的管理者及时快速地提供决策依据,有效地预防大型活动事故发生。
本研究主要介绍了研究背景及意义,提出了研究内容,确定了研究方法与技术路线。针对国内外大型活动场所风险管理研究现状,重点分析了国内外大型活动、风险评价和预警理论与方法的研究现状。基于机理分析方法论的大型活动风险分析,从原则性机理、原理性机理、流程性机理和操作性机理的不同层次对典型的大型活动中容易出现的突发灾难性事件进行了全新的剖析,在此基础之上进行梳理归纳,把影响大型活动安全的风险因素分为活动本身、人、物和环境四个部分,并结合突发事件的原理性机理和流程性机理进行详细说明。探讨了模糊网络分析法及其应用。大型活动是一个复杂巨系统,具有风险因素众多、各因素间关联性强的特点。针对此特点,探索性地提出了将模糊层次分析方法(F—AHP)中的利用模糊数学原理来进行判断矩阵“模糊化”的思想在网络分析方法(ANP)中延续,实施模糊网络分析方法(F—ANP)对大型活动进行风险评价,同时提出采用模糊三角数与网络分析相结合的方法,对大型活动预警中的若干可监控的指标进行分析评价。进行了面向大型活动的预警系统设计。通过对监控与启动机制流程进行研究,建立了一套针对大型活动不同事故类型的分类启动体系;针对大型活动的特殊性从预警的对象、范围、功能模块、内容方面提出了预警系统的模型;给出预警系统的构成,对预警对策系统进行更深一步的研究。为验证自建指标体系与评价方法的科学性与可行性,选取三个有代表性的大型活动进行实证研究。论文最后总结本研究的成果,并提出需要进一步改进、深化的主要问题。
Along with the rising of quantity, scale and degree of internationalization of Large-scale activities in recent years, 62% of these activities have security problems, according to the safety inspection of Ministry of Public Security. Due to the crowded site and complex situation, there are potential security risks and negligence in Safety Management, leading to catastrophic accidents and bringing irreparable damage or death. It is timely, important and meaningful to study assessment and early warning systems of Large-scale activities. This research derives from the national Eleventh Five-year project Study on the Risk Warning Technology for Social Security. In the research, an early warning system is given based on assessment of risk factors, and should be able to effectively curb the high trend of the occurrence of catastrophic incidents.
This research introduces the background, significance, research method and technological design of the research. It focuses on the current status of research home and abroad on the theory and practice of Large-scale activities, their risk assessment and early warning. The typical catastrophic accidents are analyzed based on rule, principle, optimization, and operation mechanism analysis methodology. The impact of Large-scale activities risk factors are divided into four groups: activity factors, human factors, material factors and environmental factors. A new approach based on Fuzzy Analytical Network Hierarchical for establishment of an analytical risk assessment model to evaluate the risk index is proposed, for Large-scale activities are characterized by the complex giant system, Large number of risk factors and inter-dependence among factors. Based on fuzzy Analytical Network Hierarchical Processing method, some monitoring indicators of early warning system are given and calculated with analysis. A set of classifying system is established based on the research of monitoring and initiating process. An early warning system is designed according to the subject, area, function modules, content of Large-scale activity. Besides, the composition of the early warning system is given for further research on the early warning strategy. Three cases were selected to do empirical research in order to verify the validity and feasibility of the indicator system. Finally, the dissertation summarizes the findings of the research and poses some areas for further improvement and exploration.
本研究主要介绍了研究背景及意义,提出了研究内容,确定了研究方法与技术路线。针对国内外大型活动场所风险管理研究现状,重点分析了国内外大型活动、风险评价和预警理论与方法的研究现状。基于机理分析方法论的大型活动风险分析,从原则性机理、原理性机理、流程性机理和操作性机理的不同层次对典型的大型活动中容易出现的突发灾难性事件进行了全新的剖析,在此基础之上进行梳理归纳,把影响大型活动安全的风险因素分为活动本身、人、物和环境四个部分,并结合突发事件的原理性机理和流程性机理进行详细说明。探讨了模糊网络分析法及其应用。大型活动是一个复杂巨系统,具有风险因素众多、各因素间关联性强的特点。针对此特点,探索性地提出了将模糊层次分析方法(F—AHP)中的利用模糊数学原理来进行判断矩阵“模糊化”的思想在网络分析方法(ANP)中延续,实施模糊网络分析方法(F—ANP)对大型活动进行风险评价,同时提出采用模糊三角数与网络分析相结合的方法,对大型活动预警中的若干可监控的指标进行分析评价。进行了面向大型活动的预警系统设计。通过对监控与启动机制流程进行研究,建立了一套针对大型活动不同事故类型的分类启动体系;针对大型活动的特殊性从预警的对象、范围、功能模块、内容方面提出了预警系统的模型;给出预警系统的构成,对预警对策系统进行更深一步的研究。为验证自建指标体系与评价方法的科学性与可行性,选取三个有代表性的大型活动进行实证研究。论文最后总结本研究的成果,并提出需要进一步改进、深化的主要问题。
Along with the rising of quantity, scale and degree of internationalization of Large-scale activities in recent years, 62% of these activities have security problems, according to the safety inspection of Ministry of Public Security. Due to the crowded site and complex situation, there are potential security risks and negligence in Safety Management, leading to catastrophic accidents and bringing irreparable damage or death. It is timely, important and meaningful to study assessment and early warning systems of Large-scale activities. This research derives from the national Eleventh Five-year project Study on the Risk Warning Technology for Social Security. In the research, an early warning system is given based on assessment of risk factors, and should be able to effectively curb the high trend of the occurrence of catastrophic incidents.
This research introduces the background, significance, research method and technological design of the research. It focuses on the current status of research home and abroad on the theory and practice of Large-scale activities, their risk assessment and early warning. The typical catastrophic accidents are analyzed based on rule, principle, optimization, and operation mechanism analysis methodology. The impact of Large-scale activities risk factors are divided into four groups: activity factors, human factors, material factors and environmental factors. A new approach based on Fuzzy Analytical Network Hierarchical for establishment of an analytical risk assessment model to evaluate the risk index is proposed, for Large-scale activities are characterized by the complex giant system, Large number of risk factors and inter-dependence among factors. Based on fuzzy Analytical Network Hierarchical Processing method, some monitoring indicators of early warning system are given and calculated with analysis. A set of classifying system is established based on the research of monitoring and initiating process. An early warning system is designed according to the subject, area, function modules, content of Large-scale activity. Besides, the composition of the early warning system is given for further research on the early warning strategy. Three cases were selected to do empirical research in order to verify the validity and feasibility of the indicator system. Finally, the dissertation summarizes the findings of the research and poses some areas for further improvement and exploration.
引文
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