中原城市群地质灾害风险区划研究
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摘要
中原城市群为地质灾害多发区。本文根据中原城市群环境地质条件、地质灾害的分布发育特征、各类地质灾害的发育强度、活动程度及地质灾害的危害特征、破坏损失特点,选取崩塌、滑坡、泥石流及地面塌陷这4类主要的地质灾害进行风险区划研究;利用实地调查、遥感(RS)等技术提取研究区各种地质地理资料,从逻辑层面上分析地质灾害系统的元素构成,确立元素集合的层次、逻辑关系;基于GIS二次开发出风险评估系统,划分评价单元,用多种评价模型(模糊综合评判、可拓模型、BP神经网络等3种模型)进行对比分析,力求找到一种合适的评价手段来描述其间的各种关系和联系;
综合考虑人口、房屋建筑、生命线工程、道路桥梁工程、土地资源分布等经济因素,建立了易损性评价指标和模型;
以单灾种评价结果为基础数据,做出城市群单灾种区划图;将各灾种风险度结果进行叠加,做出综合风险区划,将研究区分为零风险、低风险、中风险、高风险、极高风险五个等级区划;在此基础上提出了一些初步的防治对策、方案和建议,从而为中原城市群地质灾害的防灾减灾工作和政府部门规划工作提供基础资料与决策依据。主要创新点包括:
1、首次在中原城市群如此大的区域进行地质灾害风险区划研究,在研究深度、精度及区划理论、区划方法方面做了一些探索和创新。在吸收借鉴国内外已有研究成果、研究方法的基础上,结合该区域地质灾害的发育特征、危害特征及社会经济条件,首次建立了研究区由危险性、易损性组成的风险评价模型,完成在大区域内进行高精度(1:10万)的地质灾害风险区划。因此,本次研究进一步发展了地质灾害风险研究理论与方法,丰富了由危险性评价、易损性评价和风险性评价组成的地质灾害风险评价、风险区划系统,可为其它地区地质灾害风险区划工作提供参考。
2、首次将崩塌、滑坡、泥石流、地面塌陷等地质灾害结合在一起,提出总体的评价指标体系和评价模型,并不是进行简单的将单一灾种风险性数值进行叠加。在此基础上对中原城市群地质灾害风险程度进行分区。
3、将GIS技术、Excel数据库技术、RS技术成功地应用于地质灾害危险性评价、易损性评价以及风险分析的图形数字化、图层矢量叠加和属性计算、成图,实现了地质灾害分析评价的数字化、模型化、动态化,保证了风险研究的精度,这对于传统的区划工作,是一次重要突破与发展。
Zhongyuan City Group are situated in geo-hazards prone areas. In light of the geo-environment, the dominant features concerning the geo-hazards there, such as their distribution pattern, intensity of occurrence and activity, degree of threatening and sabotage ,etc., four kinds of geo-hazards( collapse ,landslide ,debris flow and subsidence ) are chosen in this geo-hazards risk zoning research.
Based on geological and geographical data obtained by means of field investigation and RS technology, analyze the constitution of geo-hazards, determine the hierarchy and logical order of congregate; based on the risk evaluation system developed on the platform of GIS, and division of evaluation units, use various evaluation models(fuzzy synthetic discrimination, analytic hierarchy process, extensible comprehensive evaluation model, artificial neural network) for comparison research, in order to find out the suitable model which can adequately describe the various relationships among them.
Taking into account related factors, such as population ,housing and building ,life line engineering ,distribution of land resources, etc., the index system and model concerning vulnerability evaluation has been established.
By overlapping the risk zoning results concerning the above four kinds of geo-hazards, a comprehensive risk zoning was carried out. dividing the area into five categories, ranging from zero risk to super high risk. Moreover ,some suggestions were put forward for the harness of geo-hazards in Zhongyuan City Group . the main innovation points include:
1. It is the first time to conduct geo-hazard risk zoning research in such a large area of Zhongyuan City Group, some exploration and innovations were made in aspects like profundity, precision, zoning theory and techniques. In light of the domestic and abroad research achievements and techniques, and in accordance with the regional features concerning geo-hazard occurrence and threatening, social, economical conditions, a comprehensive geo-hzard evaluation system was established in conjunction with hazard and vulnerability for the first time, with the completing of geo-hazard risk evaluation zoning with high precision in such a large area. Therefore, the research further develop the geo-hazard risk zoning theory and techniques, enriched the geo-hazard assessment and zoning system consisting of hazard and vulnerability evaluation, and risk assessment, can serve as an model for other similar work.
2. Produce an overall evaluation index system and evaluation model for the first time , instead of just overlapping risk values of single type geo-hazard one other simply. Then carry out the risk zoning of geo-hazards in Zhongyuan City Group.
3.By applying GIS, Excel data base and RS successfully to the digitalization of evaluation maps(concerning hazard, vulnerability and risk), the overlapping of map vectors, calculation of attributes and map edition ,realize the digitalization ,modeling and dynamism of risk analysis and evaluation, ensuring the precision of risk research and shows an important breakthrough and development compared to traditional zoning work.
综合考虑人口、房屋建筑、生命线工程、道路桥梁工程、土地资源分布等经济因素,建立了易损性评价指标和模型;
以单灾种评价结果为基础数据,做出城市群单灾种区划图;将各灾种风险度结果进行叠加,做出综合风险区划,将研究区分为零风险、低风险、中风险、高风险、极高风险五个等级区划;在此基础上提出了一些初步的防治对策、方案和建议,从而为中原城市群地质灾害的防灾减灾工作和政府部门规划工作提供基础资料与决策依据。主要创新点包括:
1、首次在中原城市群如此大的区域进行地质灾害风险区划研究,在研究深度、精度及区划理论、区划方法方面做了一些探索和创新。在吸收借鉴国内外已有研究成果、研究方法的基础上,结合该区域地质灾害的发育特征、危害特征及社会经济条件,首次建立了研究区由危险性、易损性组成的风险评价模型,完成在大区域内进行高精度(1:10万)的地质灾害风险区划。因此,本次研究进一步发展了地质灾害风险研究理论与方法,丰富了由危险性评价、易损性评价和风险性评价组成的地质灾害风险评价、风险区划系统,可为其它地区地质灾害风险区划工作提供参考。
2、首次将崩塌、滑坡、泥石流、地面塌陷等地质灾害结合在一起,提出总体的评价指标体系和评价模型,并不是进行简单的将单一灾种风险性数值进行叠加。在此基础上对中原城市群地质灾害风险程度进行分区。
3、将GIS技术、Excel数据库技术、RS技术成功地应用于地质灾害危险性评价、易损性评价以及风险分析的图形数字化、图层矢量叠加和属性计算、成图,实现了地质灾害分析评价的数字化、模型化、动态化,保证了风险研究的精度,这对于传统的区划工作,是一次重要突破与发展。
Zhongyuan City Group are situated in geo-hazards prone areas. In light of the geo-environment, the dominant features concerning the geo-hazards there, such as their distribution pattern, intensity of occurrence and activity, degree of threatening and sabotage ,etc., four kinds of geo-hazards( collapse ,landslide ,debris flow and subsidence ) are chosen in this geo-hazards risk zoning research.
Based on geological and geographical data obtained by means of field investigation and RS technology, analyze the constitution of geo-hazards, determine the hierarchy and logical order of congregate; based on the risk evaluation system developed on the platform of GIS, and division of evaluation units, use various evaluation models(fuzzy synthetic discrimination, analytic hierarchy process, extensible comprehensive evaluation model, artificial neural network) for comparison research, in order to find out the suitable model which can adequately describe the various relationships among them.
Taking into account related factors, such as population ,housing and building ,life line engineering ,distribution of land resources, etc., the index system and model concerning vulnerability evaluation has been established.
By overlapping the risk zoning results concerning the above four kinds of geo-hazards, a comprehensive risk zoning was carried out. dividing the area into five categories, ranging from zero risk to super high risk. Moreover ,some suggestions were put forward for the harness of geo-hazards in Zhongyuan City Group . the main innovation points include:
1. It is the first time to conduct geo-hazard risk zoning research in such a large area of Zhongyuan City Group, some exploration and innovations were made in aspects like profundity, precision, zoning theory and techniques. In light of the domestic and abroad research achievements and techniques, and in accordance with the regional features concerning geo-hazard occurrence and threatening, social, economical conditions, a comprehensive geo-hzard evaluation system was established in conjunction with hazard and vulnerability for the first time, with the completing of geo-hazard risk evaluation zoning with high precision in such a large area. Therefore, the research further develop the geo-hazard risk zoning theory and techniques, enriched the geo-hazard assessment and zoning system consisting of hazard and vulnerability evaluation, and risk assessment, can serve as an model for other similar work.
2. Produce an overall evaluation index system and evaluation model for the first time , instead of just overlapping risk values of single type geo-hazard one other simply. Then carry out the risk zoning of geo-hazards in Zhongyuan City Group.
3.By applying GIS, Excel data base and RS successfully to the digitalization of evaluation maps(concerning hazard, vulnerability and risk), the overlapping of map vectors, calculation of attributes and map edition ,realize the digitalization ,modeling and dynamism of risk analysis and evaluation, ensuring the precision of risk research and shows an important breakthrough and development compared to traditional zoning work.
引文
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