城市基础设施投资效果分析方法研究
|
摘要
经济的发展和城市化进程的加快要求加大对城市基础设施的投资,提升城市基础设施的服务水平。然而,由于不同功能城市基础设施的投资管理部门不统一,造成对城市基础设施投资效果的评价缺乏整体性。同时,由于城市基础设施投资效果的社会性和外部性,使得对其影响因素的分析难以定量化;对城市基础设施投资效果影响因素的预控更多地也是从经验分析的角度进行。这些都在一定程度上阻碍了对城市基础设施投资效果的改善,不利于提升城市基础设施的服务水平。
本文利用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法对城市基础设施投资效果分析方法进行了研究,完成了对城市基础设施投资效果评价、投资效果影响因素分析、影响因素预控的方法研究和实证分析。本文的主要内容概括如下:
1.基于价值工程原理构建了城市基础设施整体投资效果的评价模型。首先通过功能分析建立了城市基础设施投资效果的评价指标体系,接着利用网络层次分析法分析了城市基础设施各子系统之间的网络层次结构,将专家调查问卷得到的指标间相互影响关系和相对重要程度输入超级决策(Super Decision)软件,运算得出各指标的权重,通过价值工程计算城市基础设施整体投资效果值。最后以北京市为例,对其十五期间的基础设施投资效果进行实证对比研究。
2.基于系统理论分析了影响城市基础设施整体投资效果的三个因素:投资量、投资结构和各子系统投资效果,建立了结构分解分析模型来计算这三个影响因素的贡献率,得出结论:投资结构对城市基础设施整体投资效果发挥着越来越重要的作用,合理控制和调整投资结构对于优化投资效果有重要意义和作用。
3.投资结构实际上就是各子系统投资量的比例,对投资结构的控制是属于事前管理的范畴,需要通过对各子系统的未来投资进行预测才能掌握。本文以北京市为例,利用系统动力学方法,借助于Vensim软件建立了城市基础设施投资的系统动力学模型对未来投资结构进行预测和分析,并提出了政策建议。
With the development of economic and society there is an increasing investment demand for urban infrastructure. The urban infrastructure is comprised of different facilities such as transport, energy, and environment, etc. The fact is that all these facilities belong to different departments that leads to a separated management. There is a lack of research on the whole investment effect of urban infrastructure. In addition the investment effect of urban infrastructure is characterized by external feature that it is difficult to be defined and quantified. In the past scholars paid more attention to the qualitative analyses on investment effect of urban infrastructure, which results in a shortage of carrying out study in the field of looking for the deep-seated factors that affect the investment effect of urban infrastructure and exploring an effective way to improve its investment effect.
A compute model is built up to work out the investment effect of urban infrastructure which combines quantitative and qualitative analyses together. Based on the result analysis of influence factors are carried out and the primary factors are identified. Then an analysis model is set up to predict the investment in the future which will give some suggestions for the decision-makers. Anyhow the main content of this dissertation can be summed up as follows.
1. A model for appraising the investment effect of urban infrastructure is constructed. Based on the analyses of functions for urban infrastructure an indictor set is established. After the expert questionnaire is done the theory of Analytic Network Process and the soft of Super Decision are used to work out the weighs of each indicator. Thirdly based on theory of Value Engineering the investment effect of urban infrastructure is figured out. Lastly Beijing is taken as an example to carry out a case study.
2. Based on system theory the three primary factors that affect the investment effect of urban infrastructure, namely investment volume, investment effect of each subsystem and investment structure it studied. Then the theory of Structure Decompose Analyses it used to work out the contribution rate of each factor and draws a conclusion that investment structure are playing a more and more important role in the investment effect.
3. Investment structure is the rate of investment volume of each subsystem. Management and harmony of the investment structure should be carried out before invest activities. Thus a forecast of the investment of each subsystem should be done. Based on the theory of System Dynamic and using the software of Vensim a model to predict the investment of urban infrastructure of Beijing is set up. Investment volume and investment structure are forecasted using the SD model. And some conclusions are drawn and some policy advice are given.
本文利用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法对城市基础设施投资效果分析方法进行了研究,完成了对城市基础设施投资效果评价、投资效果影响因素分析、影响因素预控的方法研究和实证分析。本文的主要内容概括如下:
1.基于价值工程原理构建了城市基础设施整体投资效果的评价模型。首先通过功能分析建立了城市基础设施投资效果的评价指标体系,接着利用网络层次分析法分析了城市基础设施各子系统之间的网络层次结构,将专家调查问卷得到的指标间相互影响关系和相对重要程度输入超级决策(Super Decision)软件,运算得出各指标的权重,通过价值工程计算城市基础设施整体投资效果值。最后以北京市为例,对其十五期间的基础设施投资效果进行实证对比研究。
2.基于系统理论分析了影响城市基础设施整体投资效果的三个因素:投资量、投资结构和各子系统投资效果,建立了结构分解分析模型来计算这三个影响因素的贡献率,得出结论:投资结构对城市基础设施整体投资效果发挥着越来越重要的作用,合理控制和调整投资结构对于优化投资效果有重要意义和作用。
3.投资结构实际上就是各子系统投资量的比例,对投资结构的控制是属于事前管理的范畴,需要通过对各子系统的未来投资进行预测才能掌握。本文以北京市为例,利用系统动力学方法,借助于Vensim软件建立了城市基础设施投资的系统动力学模型对未来投资结构进行预测和分析,并提出了政策建议。
With the development of economic and society there is an increasing investment demand for urban infrastructure. The urban infrastructure is comprised of different facilities such as transport, energy, and environment, etc. The fact is that all these facilities belong to different departments that leads to a separated management. There is a lack of research on the whole investment effect of urban infrastructure. In addition the investment effect of urban infrastructure is characterized by external feature that it is difficult to be defined and quantified. In the past scholars paid more attention to the qualitative analyses on investment effect of urban infrastructure, which results in a shortage of carrying out study in the field of looking for the deep-seated factors that affect the investment effect of urban infrastructure and exploring an effective way to improve its investment effect.
A compute model is built up to work out the investment effect of urban infrastructure which combines quantitative and qualitative analyses together. Based on the result analysis of influence factors are carried out and the primary factors are identified. Then an analysis model is set up to predict the investment in the future which will give some suggestions for the decision-makers. Anyhow the main content of this dissertation can be summed up as follows.
1. A model for appraising the investment effect of urban infrastructure is constructed. Based on the analyses of functions for urban infrastructure an indictor set is established. After the expert questionnaire is done the theory of Analytic Network Process and the soft of Super Decision are used to work out the weighs of each indicator. Thirdly based on theory of Value Engineering the investment effect of urban infrastructure is figured out. Lastly Beijing is taken as an example to carry out a case study.
2. Based on system theory the three primary factors that affect the investment effect of urban infrastructure, namely investment volume, investment effect of each subsystem and investment structure it studied. Then the theory of Structure Decompose Analyses it used to work out the contribution rate of each factor and draws a conclusion that investment structure are playing a more and more important role in the investment effect.
3. Investment structure is the rate of investment volume of each subsystem. Management and harmony of the investment structure should be carried out before invest activities. Thus a forecast of the investment of each subsystem should be done. Based on the theory of System Dynamic and using the software of Vensim a model to predict the investment of urban infrastructure of Beijing is set up. Investment volume and investment structure are forecasted using the SD model. And some conclusions are drawn and some policy advice are given.
引文
[1]魁奈著.吴斐丹,张草纫译.《经济著作集》.北京.商务出版社.1979.
[2]亚当·斯密.《国民财富的性质和原因的研究》[中文版].商务出版社.北京.1979.
[3]罗森斯坦-罗丹.《拉丁美洲的经济发展》[英文版].圣马丁出版社.1966.
[4]艾伯特·赫希曼著.潘照东等译.《经济发展战略》.北京.经济科学出版社.1991.
[5]Hansen,N.Unbalanced and Regional Development,Western Econ.J.Uol.4,1965
[6]钱家骏,毛立本.要重视国民经济基础结构的研究和改善.《经济管理》.1981年第10期:15-21
[7]World Bank.World Development Report 1994.Infrastructure or Development.Oxford University Press.1994
[8]范前进.基础设施融资成本与投资效益分析[博士学位论文].上海交通大学.2004:28-34
[9]张耀儒.现代城市建设经济学.北京冲国城市出版社.1998:221-222
[10 周君.城市基础设施安全系统的结构与和谐发展.中国安全科学学报.2005年12期:3-7
[11]华奎元.城市基础设施管理概论.北京.中国建筑工业出版社.1989
[12]Wang De,Zhang Zhao.Study of Urban Infrastructure Development Finance in China.CPN Urban Transport Congress.Wuhan University of Technology Press.2004:1101-1108.
[13]杨军.基础设施投资问题研究[博士学位论文].中南财经政法大学.2001:16-25
[14]曹红辉.股权结构公司治理与资本市场效率.财经.2003年7期:121-121
[15]李嘉图著周洁译.政治经济学及赋税原理.华夏出版.北京.2005
[16]马克思著.刘潇然译.政治经济学批判大纲.第3分册.北京.人民出版社:1963
[17]Bergson,Abram.A Reformulation of Certain Aspects of Welfare Economics.Quarterly Journal of Economics.1938.(2):310-314
[18]Bergson,Abram.On the Concept of Social Welfare.Quarterly Journal of Economics.1954(6):233-252
[19]Arrow.K.J,F.Hahn.General Competitive Analysis.San Francisco.Holden Day.1971
[20]Arrow.K.J.Social Choice and Individual Values.New Haven.Connecticut Yale University Press.1963
[21]Arrow.K.J.Social Choice and Individual Values.New York Cowles Foundation and Wiley.1951
[22]Sen.A.K.A Possibility Theorem on Majority Decision.Econometrical.1966 Vol.34:491-499
[23]Sen.A.K.On Economic Inequality.Oxford.Clarendon Press.1997
[24]Sen.A.K.Real National Income.The Review of Economic Studies.1976 Vol.43:19-39
[25]M.A.Toman.,P.Crosson.Economics and Sustainability:Balancing Tradeoffs and Imperatives.Resources for the Future,Washington.D.C.,1991(1)5:18
[26]尼古拉著.郑秉文等译.福利国家经济学.北京.中国劳动社会保障出版社.2003
[27]Blau.J.H.The Existence of a Social Welfare Function.Econometrical.1957 Vol.25:302-313
[28]Vilfredo Pareto,Manuale di Economic Political(Societal Editrice Librarian,Milan,1906).Translated to English as:Manual of Political Economy 261(Macmillan,New York,1971)
[29]庇古.福利经济学.上海商务印书馆.2006
[30]Dupuit,Jules.On the Measurement of the Utility of Public Works.translated by R.H.Barback.International Economics Papers.1844 Vol.2:83-110
[31]苏重基.关于现代企业区位选择的财务评价探析.四川会计.2001年5期:9-12
[32]李可可,张婕.美国的防洪减灾措施及其启示.中国水利.2006年11期:54-56
[33]J.Dupuit.On the Measurement of the Utility of Public Works,Translated in International Economic Papers.1844 vol.2:188-202.
[34]Little,I.Mirrlees,J.Social Cost Benefit Analysis.Manual of Industrial Project Analysis in Developing Countries.Paris.1969
[35]Dasgupta,P.S.,Marglin,S.A.,Sen,A.K.Guidelines for Project Evaluation.UNIDO.New York.1972
[36]Word Bank.Operational Manual on the Economic Analysis of Projects.Washington DC.1980:141-156
[37]P.Belli,J.Anderson,H.Barnum,J.Dixon,J.P.Tan,Handbook on Economic Analysis of Investment Operations.Washington DC,World Bank,1996:188-194
[38]E.R.Fontaine,The Sugar Beet Industry in Chile:A Cost-Benefit Analysis.PH.D.dissertation,University of Chicago.1964:55-77
[39]F.Teal.Project Evaluation:Techniques and Practices for Developing Countries.Economic Journal.London,1998:275-288
[40]P.Gittinger.Economic Analysis of Agricultural Projects.Baltimore MD,Johns Hopkins University Press,1982:3-11
[41]G.P.Jenkins.Economic Project Evaluation:Some Lessons for the 1990s.Canadian Journal of Program Evaluation,1997:67-68
[42]J.Isham,D.Kaufrnann.The Forgotten Rationale for Policy Reform.World Bank Policy Research Working Paper.No.1549,1995:59-61
[43]I.M.D.Little,J.A.Mirrlees.Project Appraisal and Planning for Developing Counties.London:Heniemamm.1974:7-12
[44]I.M.D.Little,J.A.Mirrlees.Project Appraisal and Planning Twenty Years on Proceeding of the World Bank Annual Conference on Development Economics 1990 Washington,DC.World Bank.1991:71-82
[45]L.Squire,G.T.Vander.Herman,Economic Analysis of Projects.Baltimore.Johns Hopkins University Press.1975:21-25
[46]World Bank.Economic Analysis of Projects:Towards a Results-Oriented Approach to Evaluation.Operations Evaluation and Operations Policy Department,Word Bank.1991:7-12.
[47]G.P.Jenkins.Project Analysis and the World Bank.The American Economic Review.1997(3):77-84
[48]World Bank.A Review of the Quality of Economic Analysis in Staff Appraisal Report for Projects Approved in 1993.Mimeo,Operations Evaluation and Operations Policy Department,World Bank.1995:21-29
[49]World Bank.An Interim Review of the Quality of Economic Analysis in Staff Appraisal Reports for Project Approved in Fiscal Year 1996.Operations Evaluation and Operations Policy Department,World Bank,1996:39-48
[50]B.Pedro,L.Pritchett.Does Good Economic Analysis Improve Project Success.Mimeo Operations Policy Division.World Bank,1995:44-56.
[51]Sadek,Adel W.,Kvasnak,Andrea;Segale,Joe.Integrated Infrastructure Management Systems:Small urban area's experience.Journal of Infrastructure Systems.2003.Vol 9:98-106
[52]Novick,David.Life-cycle Considerations in Urban Infrastructure Engineering.Journal of Management in Engineering.1990.Vol 6:186-I96
[53]Faulkner,Barry,Martinez,Rodolfo.Sensitivity Analysis of Financial forecasts for MBTA Infrastructure Investment Program.Proceedings of the Infrastructure Planning and Management.1993:511-520
[54]Kim,Euijune,Shin,Myungsoo,Investment Effect of Road.Journal of Infrastructure Systems.2002.Vol 8:96-102
[55]J.E.Hardoy,D.Mitin,and D.Satter.Environmental Problems in Third World Cities.London:Earth scans Publications.1992:23-27
[56]R.F.Mikesell.Project Evaluation and Resource Sustainability Contemporary Policy Issues.Huntington Beach,1992:83-89
[57]Brundtl and Commission,Our Common Furore,Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development,Oxford University Press.1987:13-26
[58]H.E.Daly.From Empty-World Economics to Full-World Economics:Recognizing a Historical Turning Point in Economic Development.Environmentally Sustained Economic Development:Building on Brnndtland,Environmental Department Working Paper No.46,World Bank,Washington,D.C.1984:81-91
[59]S.E.Serafy.The Proper Calculation of Income from Depletable Natural Resources,Environmental Accounting for Sustainable Development.World Bank.Washington,DC.1989:45-57
[60]韩传峰.大型基础设施项目群组决策的模糊评价.同济大学学报自然科学版.2007年1期:133-137
[61]程永跃.基于模糊集理论的铁路建设项目环境后评价.铁道建筑.2007年5期:109-111
[62]许明丽.水利建设项目社会评价方法初探.安徽农业科学.2007年35卷7期:2143-2144
[63]孙修东.基于人工神经网络的多指标综合评价方法研究.郑州轻工业学院学报:自然科学版.2003年18卷2期:11-14
[64]刘希宋.石油专用设备投资评价的神经网络模型及实证研究.科技管理研究.2006年26卷11期:159-161
[65]陈侠.主成分分析法在经济项目评价中的应用.沈阳航空工业学院学报.2005年7期:84-85
[66]刘俊娥.基于主成分分析的风险投资项目风险评价.建筑技术开发.2005年32卷5期:128-130
[67]张丽.建筑产品的全寿命周期环境影响评价.北京交通大学学报社会科学版.2005年4卷4期:39-42
[68]魏耀聪.建立重点公共投资项目全寿命效益审计机制研究.审计文摘.2007年1期:25-26
[69]侯永春.项目投资的全寿命管理控制浅谈.天津经济.2006年1期:56-59
[70]林晓言.基础设施投资效果定量评价.北京.北方交通大学出版社.2004
[71]文世恩.浙江省城市能源基础设施现状分析与探讨.能源工程.2005年2期:7-9
[72]刘淑红,城市环境基础设施建设资金的筹措,开发研究,2007年01期:21-25
[73]王晓丽.防灾投资的效益分析与评价方法研究.北京.经济科学出版社.2006
[74]罗培GIS支持下的气象灾害风险评估模型.自然灾害学报.2007年16卷1期:38-44
[75]史富文.北京市基础设施建设投资效果评价研究[硕士学位论文].清华大学.2005
[76]Hastak,M.,Risk Factors Affecting Management and Maintenance Cost of Urban Infrastructure,Journal of Infrastructure Systems,2001 Vol 7:67-76
[77]Ostojic-Skomrlj,N.Margeta,J.Sewage Disposal System.Water Science and Technology.1995. Vol32:273-282
[78]Glenn.Developing Sustainability Criteria for Urban Infrastructure Systems.Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering.2000.Vol3:103-121
[79]梁素铭,韩云虹.提高辽宁基础设施投资效果的思考.党政干部学刊.2007年9期:41-41
[80]王庆,基于.SD的大学城基础设施效用影响因素研究.经济与管理.2006年20卷4期:25-27,30
[81]曾建平.宏观经济对项目投资行为和投资效果影响的预期研究.福建经济.1997年9期:14-15
[82]于宝生,侯志辉,石静,曹国英.交通工程建设项目方案投资效果的研究.辽宁交通科技.2005年08期:78-80
[83]Alegre,Helena;Covas,Didia;Monteiro,Antonio Jore;.Water infrastructure asset management:A methodology to define investment prioritization.8th Annual Water Distribution Systems Analysis Symposium 2006,8th Annual Water Distribution Systems Analysis Symposium 2006,2007:29-35
[84]Mattingly,M;Winarso,H.Spatial planning programming of in the urban investments - The experience of Indonesia's integrated Urban Infrastructure Development Programme.International development planning review.2002,24(2):109-125
[85]谭水成,里鹏.“十一五”平顶山市市政公用基础设施建设投资预测.工程建设与设计.2007年10期:43-46
[86]张长春.“十五”及2010年西部基础设施投资预测与投融资措施.宏观经济管理.2001年11期:14-18
[87]周高平;周直;杜净.基础设施项目投资风险灰色预测模型研究.中南公路工程.2006年02期:145-149
[88]Georgia Carvalho.Paulo Moutinho.An Amazon Perspective on the Forest-Climate Connection:Opportunity for Climate Mitigation,Conservation and Development?,Environment,Development and Sustainability.2004.Vol 6:163-174
[89]Michael H.Huesemann.The limits of Technological Solutions to Sustainable Development,Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy,2003.Vol5:21-34
[90]吴向阳.我国城市可持续发展的问题与对策.经济问题探索.2007年6期:20-24
[91]杨凌,元方,李国平.可持续发展指标体系综述.统计与决策.2007年10期:56-59
[92]王保乾.基础设施可持续发展的制度分析[博士学位论文].兰州大学.2003
[93]Patricia Pelle,Carlos D'attellis,Analysis of the BSB Model Dynamics Using Control Theory,Volume 22,Number 3/2005年12月:345-359.
[94]Jan H.van Schuppen.Rational Positive Systems for Reaction Networks.Positive Systems.2004.Vol 294:3-5
[95]Patricia Pelle.Carlos D'attelli.Analysis of the BSB Model Dynamics Using Control Theory.Positive Systems.2005.Vol22:345-359
[96]Jan H.van Schuppen.Rational Positive Systems for Reaction Networks.Positive Systems.2004.Vol294:3-5
[97]Ludwig Von Bertalanffy.General System Theory:Foundations,Development,Applications,4th Printing,George Braziller,Inc.,New York,1973
[98]钱学森等.论系统工程.长沙.湖南科技出版社.1982
[99]A.H.乌约莫夫著.闵家胤译.系统方式和一般系统论.长春.吉林人民出版社.1983
[100]G.J.Klir.Trends in General System Theory.John Wiley and Sons,Inc.,Printed in the United States of America.1972
[101]黄时进,论系统论在工程伦理研究中的运用,系统科学学报,2007年03期:12-15
[102]Onur Kemal Tosun.Anll Gungor.Y.Ilker Topcu.ANP Application for Evaluating Turkish Mobile Communication Operators.Journal of Global Optimization.2007.Vol11:26-32
[103]Monica Garcia-Mel6n,Jeronimo Aznar-Bellver.Farmland Appraisal Based on the Analytic Network Process.Journal of Global Optimization.2007.Vol10:53 -60
[104]王莲芬,蔡海鸥.网络分析法的理论与算法.决策科学理论与方法,200:5年6期:12-15
[105]孙宏才,徐关尧,田平.网络层次分析法在桥梁工程招标中的应用,解放军理工大学学报:自然科学版,2005年6卷1期:58-62
[106]刘睿,余建星孙宏才,田平.基于ANP的超级决策软件介绍及其应用,系统工程理论与实践,2003年23卷8期:141-143
[107]赵红梅,赵国杰.基于网络层次分析的中国职业教育评价.西安电子科技大学学报社会科学版,2006年16卷2期:108-112
[108]赵国杰,邢小强.ANP法评价区域科技实力的理论与实证分析.系统工程理论与实践.2004年24卷5期:41-45
[109]刘惠萍.基于网络层次分析法(ANP)的政府绩效评估研究.科学学与科学技术管理.2006年27卷6期:111-115,153
[110]刘晓波.基于ANP的企业可持续发展评价指标体系与方法.桂林电子工业学院学报.2006年26卷3期:222-225
[111]Leontief W,Wassily.Quantitative in Put-output Relations in the Economic System o f the United States.Review of Economics Statistics.1936(3):105-125
[112]Carter,A.P.Changes in Input-output Structure Since 1972.Data Resources Interindustry Review.1980(6):111-117.
[113]Chenery,H.B.,Robinson,S.,Syrquin,M.Industrialization and Growth.New York.Oxford University Press.1986
[114]邱寿丰.循环经济规划的生态效率方法及应用[博士论文].同济大学.2007
[115]Rose,A.M iernyk,W.Input-output Analysis:the First Fifty Years.Econom.c Systems Research.1989(2):229-271
[116]Chen,Xikang,Guo,Jue.China Economic Structure and SDA Model.Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering.2000(2):142-148
[117]Kanemitsu,H.Ohnishi,H.An Input-output Analysis of Technological Changes in the Japanese Economy:1970-1980.Frontiers of Input-Output Analysis.New York:Oxford University Press,1989:308-323
[118]Han,X.Structure Change and Labor Requirement of the Japanese Economy,Economic Systems Research.1995(1):47-65
[119]Fujikawa,K.,Milana,C.Input-output Decomposition Analysis of Sectoral Price Gaps between Japan and Chin.Economic Systems Research.2002(1):5-9
[120]Lin,X.,Polenske,K.R.Input-output Anatomy of China's Energy Use Changes in the 1980s,Economic Systems Research.1995(1):67-84
[121]De Haan,M.A Structural Decomposition Analysis of Pollution in the Netherlands,Economic Systems Research.2001(2):181-196
[122]刘惠玲.基于系统动力学的城市公交系统模型.城市公共交通.2007年6期:24-27
[123]舒华英.电信运营产业供应链的系统动力学模型[博士学位论文].北京邮电大学.2004
[124]孙新新,沈冰.宝鸡市水资源承载力系统动力学仿真模型研究.西安建筑科技大学学报.2007年39卷1期:72-77
[125]彭志高,滕春贤.基于系统动力学的供应链网络仿真模型的研究.哈尔滨理工大学学报.2007年12卷2期:153-156
[126]李涵,谭章禄.项目治理的系统动力学初探.煤炭经济研究.2007年6期:57-58
[127]N.I.Alekseev,D.A.Kissin,V.E.Gorelov.Design Iimprovements in Foam-cyclone Cleaners by the Value Engineering Method.Chemical and Petroleum Engineering.1988.Vol24:15-17
[128]Alastair Nicholson,Katarzyna Zdunczyk.Implementing the Service Concept through Value Engineering.IFIP International Federation for Information Processing.2005 Vol160:359-374
[129]建设工程经济全国一级建造师执业资格考试用书编委.建设工程经济.建筑工业出版社.2004
[130]黄时进.论系统论在工程伦理研究中的运用.系统科学学报.2007年15卷3期:90-92
[131]树伟,姜克隽,刘德顺.中国交通发展的能源消费与对策研究.中国软科学.2006年第5期:58-62
[132]朱松丽.交通需求和交通能源需求预测方法.数量经济技术经济研究.2004年5期:100-108
[133]黄镭.管道运输项目投资后期财务评价.国际石油经济.2003年04期:44-47
[134]魏一鸣.中国能源报告.科学出版社北京 2006
[135]陈其幸等.连云港市水资源开发利用初探.东北水利水电.2005年第3期:29-31
[136]薛松贵等.黄河流域水资源管理.中英流域水资源管理综合研讨会
[137]张承志.我国下大力气防治海洋污染.经济世界.2001年06期:9-12
[138]路正南.产业结构调整对我国能源消费影响的实证分析.数量经济技术经济研究.1999(12):5-8
[139]史丹,张金融.产业结构变动对能源消费的影响.经济理论与经济管理.2003(8):13-20
[140]徐博,刘芳.产业结构变动对能源消费的影响.辽宁工程技术大学学报(社会科学版).2004(4)17-21
[141]何祚庥,王亦楠.特别关注重视第三产业的能源利用效率.2004年04月28日经济日报
[142]孔国强.通信业固定资产投资效益分析.中国投资.2002年9期:77-79
[143]杨瑞生.邮电投资结构和投资效益分析与评价的研究[硕士学位论文].北京邮电大学.2005
[144]林明金.投资与经营基础设施领域前景广阔.投资北京.2005年第一期:40-41
[145]贾鹏云.基础设施投融资体制改革初显成效.投资北京.2005年第5期:14-16
[146]杨军.基础设施投资问题研究[博士学位论文].中南财经政法大学.2001
[147]金磊.“十五”期间北京市必须重视防灾减灾工作.北京社会科学.2001年第2期:147-152
[148]柯礼丹.全国总用水量向零增长过渡期的水资源对策研究.中国水利.2002年3期:22-24
[149]李小冬,关柯等.大型承包商国际竞争力的综合评价及其模拟分析.哈尔滨建筑大学学报.2004.4.Vol33:106-109
[150]史育龙.“十五”我国城市化年均速度不突破1%.2001年04月29日 中国宏观经济信息网http://www.macrochina.com.cn/zhzt/000053/002/20010429003719.shtml
[151]宋序彤,许俊仪.我国城市供水排水产业发展分析.给水排水.2005Vol31:2-8
[152]黄毅,张荣娟.北京市能源消费情况及国内外比较分析.数据.2007年第1期:24-25
[2]亚当·斯密.《国民财富的性质和原因的研究》[中文版].商务出版社.北京.1979.
[3]罗森斯坦-罗丹.《拉丁美洲的经济发展》[英文版].圣马丁出版社.1966.
[4]艾伯特·赫希曼著.潘照东等译.《经济发展战略》.北京.经济科学出版社.1991.
[5]Hansen,N.Unbalanced and Regional Development,Western Econ.J.Uol.4,1965
[6]钱家骏,毛立本.要重视国民经济基础结构的研究和改善.《经济管理》.1981年第10期:15-21
[7]World Bank.World Development Report 1994.Infrastructure or Development.Oxford University Press.1994
[8]范前进.基础设施融资成本与投资效益分析[博士学位论文].上海交通大学.2004:28-34
[9]张耀儒.现代城市建设经济学.北京冲国城市出版社.1998:221-222
[10 周君.城市基础设施安全系统的结构与和谐发展.中国安全科学学报.2005年12期:3-7
[11]华奎元.城市基础设施管理概论.北京.中国建筑工业出版社.1989
[12]Wang De,Zhang Zhao.Study of Urban Infrastructure Development Finance in China.CPN Urban Transport Congress.Wuhan University of Technology Press.2004:1101-1108.
[13]杨军.基础设施投资问题研究[博士学位论文].中南财经政法大学.2001:16-25
[14]曹红辉.股权结构公司治理与资本市场效率.财经.2003年7期:121-121
[15]李嘉图著周洁译.政治经济学及赋税原理.华夏出版.北京.2005
[16]马克思著.刘潇然译.政治经济学批判大纲.第3分册.北京.人民出版社:1963
[17]Bergson,Abram.A Reformulation of Certain Aspects of Welfare Economics.Quarterly Journal of Economics.1938.(2):310-314
[18]Bergson,Abram.On the Concept of Social Welfare.Quarterly Journal of Economics.1954(6):233-252
[19]Arrow.K.J,F.Hahn.General Competitive Analysis.San Francisco.Holden Day.1971
[20]Arrow.K.J.Social Choice and Individual Values.New Haven.Connecticut Yale University Press.1963
[21]Arrow.K.J.Social Choice and Individual Values.New York Cowles Foundation and Wiley.1951
[22]Sen.A.K.A Possibility Theorem on Majority Decision.Econometrical.1966 Vol.34:491-499
[23]Sen.A.K.On Economic Inequality.Oxford.Clarendon Press.1997
[24]Sen.A.K.Real National Income.The Review of Economic Studies.1976 Vol.43:19-39
[25]M.A.Toman.,P.Crosson.Economics and Sustainability:Balancing Tradeoffs and Imperatives.Resources for the Future,Washington.D.C.,1991(1)5:18
[26]尼古拉著.郑秉文等译.福利国家经济学.北京.中国劳动社会保障出版社.2003
[27]Blau.J.H.The Existence of a Social Welfare Function.Econometrical.1957 Vol.25:302-313
[28]Vilfredo Pareto,Manuale di Economic Political(Societal Editrice Librarian,Milan,1906).Translated to English as:Manual of Political Economy 261(Macmillan,New York,1971)
[29]庇古.福利经济学.上海商务印书馆.2006
[30]Dupuit,Jules.On the Measurement of the Utility of Public Works.translated by R.H.Barback.International Economics Papers.1844 Vol.2:83-110
[31]苏重基.关于现代企业区位选择的财务评价探析.四川会计.2001年5期:9-12
[32]李可可,张婕.美国的防洪减灾措施及其启示.中国水利.2006年11期:54-56
[33]J.Dupuit.On the Measurement of the Utility of Public Works,Translated in International Economic Papers.1844 vol.2:188-202.
[34]Little,I.Mirrlees,J.Social Cost Benefit Analysis.Manual of Industrial Project Analysis in Developing Countries.Paris.1969
[35]Dasgupta,P.S.,Marglin,S.A.,Sen,A.K.Guidelines for Project Evaluation.UNIDO.New York.1972
[36]Word Bank.Operational Manual on the Economic Analysis of Projects.Washington DC.1980:141-156
[37]P.Belli,J.Anderson,H.Barnum,J.Dixon,J.P.Tan,Handbook on Economic Analysis of Investment Operations.Washington DC,World Bank,1996:188-194
[38]E.R.Fontaine,The Sugar Beet Industry in Chile:A Cost-Benefit Analysis.PH.D.dissertation,University of Chicago.1964:55-77
[39]F.Teal.Project Evaluation:Techniques and Practices for Developing Countries.Economic Journal.London,1998:275-288
[40]P.Gittinger.Economic Analysis of Agricultural Projects.Baltimore MD,Johns Hopkins University Press,1982:3-11
[41]G.P.Jenkins.Economic Project Evaluation:Some Lessons for the 1990s.Canadian Journal of Program Evaluation,1997:67-68
[42]J.Isham,D.Kaufrnann.The Forgotten Rationale for Policy Reform.World Bank Policy Research Working Paper.No.1549,1995:59-61
[43]I.M.D.Little,J.A.Mirrlees.Project Appraisal and Planning for Developing Counties.London:Heniemamm.1974:7-12
[44]I.M.D.Little,J.A.Mirrlees.Project Appraisal and Planning Twenty Years on Proceeding of the World Bank Annual Conference on Development Economics 1990 Washington,DC.World Bank.1991:71-82
[45]L.Squire,G.T.Vander.Herman,Economic Analysis of Projects.Baltimore.Johns Hopkins University Press.1975:21-25
[46]World Bank.Economic Analysis of Projects:Towards a Results-Oriented Approach to Evaluation.Operations Evaluation and Operations Policy Department,Word Bank.1991:7-12.
[47]G.P.Jenkins.Project Analysis and the World Bank.The American Economic Review.1997(3):77-84
[48]World Bank.A Review of the Quality of Economic Analysis in Staff Appraisal Report for Projects Approved in 1993.Mimeo,Operations Evaluation and Operations Policy Department,World Bank.1995:21-29
[49]World Bank.An Interim Review of the Quality of Economic Analysis in Staff Appraisal Reports for Project Approved in Fiscal Year 1996.Operations Evaluation and Operations Policy Department,World Bank,1996:39-48
[50]B.Pedro,L.Pritchett.Does Good Economic Analysis Improve Project Success.Mimeo Operations Policy Division.World Bank,1995:44-56.
[51]Sadek,Adel W.,Kvasnak,Andrea;Segale,Joe.Integrated Infrastructure Management Systems:Small urban area's experience.Journal of Infrastructure Systems.2003.Vol 9:98-106
[52]Novick,David.Life-cycle Considerations in Urban Infrastructure Engineering.Journal of Management in Engineering.1990.Vol 6:186-I96
[53]Faulkner,Barry,Martinez,Rodolfo.Sensitivity Analysis of Financial forecasts for MBTA Infrastructure Investment Program.Proceedings of the Infrastructure Planning and Management.1993:511-520
[54]Kim,Euijune,Shin,Myungsoo,Investment Effect of Road.Journal of Infrastructure Systems.2002.Vol 8:96-102
[55]J.E.Hardoy,D.Mitin,and D.Satter.Environmental Problems in Third World Cities.London:Earth scans Publications.1992:23-27
[56]R.F.Mikesell.Project Evaluation and Resource Sustainability Contemporary Policy Issues.Huntington Beach,1992:83-89
[57]Brundtl and Commission,Our Common Furore,Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development,Oxford University Press.1987:13-26
[58]H.E.Daly.From Empty-World Economics to Full-World Economics:Recognizing a Historical Turning Point in Economic Development.Environmentally Sustained Economic Development:Building on Brnndtland,Environmental Department Working Paper No.46,World Bank,Washington,D.C.1984:81-91
[59]S.E.Serafy.The Proper Calculation of Income from Depletable Natural Resources,Environmental Accounting for Sustainable Development.World Bank.Washington,DC.1989:45-57
[60]韩传峰.大型基础设施项目群组决策的模糊评价.同济大学学报自然科学版.2007年1期:133-137
[61]程永跃.基于模糊集理论的铁路建设项目环境后评价.铁道建筑.2007年5期:109-111
[62]许明丽.水利建设项目社会评价方法初探.安徽农业科学.2007年35卷7期:2143-2144
[63]孙修东.基于人工神经网络的多指标综合评价方法研究.郑州轻工业学院学报:自然科学版.2003年18卷2期:11-14
[64]刘希宋.石油专用设备投资评价的神经网络模型及实证研究.科技管理研究.2006年26卷11期:159-161
[65]陈侠.主成分分析法在经济项目评价中的应用.沈阳航空工业学院学报.2005年7期:84-85
[66]刘俊娥.基于主成分分析的风险投资项目风险评价.建筑技术开发.2005年32卷5期:128-130
[67]张丽.建筑产品的全寿命周期环境影响评价.北京交通大学学报社会科学版.2005年4卷4期:39-42
[68]魏耀聪.建立重点公共投资项目全寿命效益审计机制研究.审计文摘.2007年1期:25-26
[69]侯永春.项目投资的全寿命管理控制浅谈.天津经济.2006年1期:56-59
[70]林晓言.基础设施投资效果定量评价.北京.北方交通大学出版社.2004
[71]文世恩.浙江省城市能源基础设施现状分析与探讨.能源工程.2005年2期:7-9
[72]刘淑红,城市环境基础设施建设资金的筹措,开发研究,2007年01期:21-25
[73]王晓丽.防灾投资的效益分析与评价方法研究.北京.经济科学出版社.2006
[74]罗培GIS支持下的气象灾害风险评估模型.自然灾害学报.2007年16卷1期:38-44
[75]史富文.北京市基础设施建设投资效果评价研究[硕士学位论文].清华大学.2005
[76]Hastak,M.,Risk Factors Affecting Management and Maintenance Cost of Urban Infrastructure,Journal of Infrastructure Systems,2001 Vol 7:67-76
[77]Ostojic-Skomrlj,N.Margeta,J.Sewage Disposal System.Water Science and Technology.1995. Vol32:273-282
[78]Glenn.Developing Sustainability Criteria for Urban Infrastructure Systems.Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering.2000.Vol3:103-121
[79]梁素铭,韩云虹.提高辽宁基础设施投资效果的思考.党政干部学刊.2007年9期:41-41
[80]王庆,基于.SD的大学城基础设施效用影响因素研究.经济与管理.2006年20卷4期:25-27,30
[81]曾建平.宏观经济对项目投资行为和投资效果影响的预期研究.福建经济.1997年9期:14-15
[82]于宝生,侯志辉,石静,曹国英.交通工程建设项目方案投资效果的研究.辽宁交通科技.2005年08期:78-80
[83]Alegre,Helena;Covas,Didia;Monteiro,Antonio Jore;.Water infrastructure asset management:A methodology to define investment prioritization.8th Annual Water Distribution Systems Analysis Symposium 2006,8th Annual Water Distribution Systems Analysis Symposium 2006,2007:29-35
[84]Mattingly,M;Winarso,H.Spatial planning programming of in the urban investments - The experience of Indonesia's integrated Urban Infrastructure Development Programme.International development planning review.2002,24(2):109-125
[85]谭水成,里鹏.“十一五”平顶山市市政公用基础设施建设投资预测.工程建设与设计.2007年10期:43-46
[86]张长春.“十五”及2010年西部基础设施投资预测与投融资措施.宏观经济管理.2001年11期:14-18
[87]周高平;周直;杜净.基础设施项目投资风险灰色预测模型研究.中南公路工程.2006年02期:145-149
[88]Georgia Carvalho.Paulo Moutinho.An Amazon Perspective on the Forest-Climate Connection:Opportunity for Climate Mitigation,Conservation and Development?,Environment,Development and Sustainability.2004.Vol 6:163-174
[89]Michael H.Huesemann.The limits of Technological Solutions to Sustainable Development,Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy,2003.Vol5:21-34
[90]吴向阳.我国城市可持续发展的问题与对策.经济问题探索.2007年6期:20-24
[91]杨凌,元方,李国平.可持续发展指标体系综述.统计与决策.2007年10期:56-59
[92]王保乾.基础设施可持续发展的制度分析[博士学位论文].兰州大学.2003
[93]Patricia Pelle,Carlos D'attellis,Analysis of the BSB Model Dynamics Using Control Theory,Volume 22,Number 3/2005年12月:345-359.
[94]Jan H.van Schuppen.Rational Positive Systems for Reaction Networks.Positive Systems.2004.Vol 294:3-5
[95]Patricia Pelle.Carlos D'attelli.Analysis of the BSB Model Dynamics Using Control Theory.Positive Systems.2005.Vol22:345-359
[96]Jan H.van Schuppen.Rational Positive Systems for Reaction Networks.Positive Systems.2004.Vol294:3-5
[97]Ludwig Von Bertalanffy.General System Theory:Foundations,Development,Applications,4th Printing,George Braziller,Inc.,New York,1973
[98]钱学森等.论系统工程.长沙.湖南科技出版社.1982
[99]A.H.乌约莫夫著.闵家胤译.系统方式和一般系统论.长春.吉林人民出版社.1983
[100]G.J.Klir.Trends in General System Theory.John Wiley and Sons,Inc.,Printed in the United States of America.1972
[101]黄时进,论系统论在工程伦理研究中的运用,系统科学学报,2007年03期:12-15
[102]Onur Kemal Tosun.Anll Gungor.Y.Ilker Topcu.ANP Application for Evaluating Turkish Mobile Communication Operators.Journal of Global Optimization.2007.Vol11:26-32
[103]Monica Garcia-Mel6n,Jeronimo Aznar-Bellver.Farmland Appraisal Based on the Analytic Network Process.Journal of Global Optimization.2007.Vol10:53 -60
[104]王莲芬,蔡海鸥.网络分析法的理论与算法.决策科学理论与方法,200:5年6期:12-15
[105]孙宏才,徐关尧,田平.网络层次分析法在桥梁工程招标中的应用,解放军理工大学学报:自然科学版,2005年6卷1期:58-62
[106]刘睿,余建星孙宏才,田平.基于ANP的超级决策软件介绍及其应用,系统工程理论与实践,2003年23卷8期:141-143
[107]赵红梅,赵国杰.基于网络层次分析的中国职业教育评价.西安电子科技大学学报社会科学版,2006年16卷2期:108-112
[108]赵国杰,邢小强.ANP法评价区域科技实力的理论与实证分析.系统工程理论与实践.2004年24卷5期:41-45
[109]刘惠萍.基于网络层次分析法(ANP)的政府绩效评估研究.科学学与科学技术管理.2006年27卷6期:111-115,153
[110]刘晓波.基于ANP的企业可持续发展评价指标体系与方法.桂林电子工业学院学报.2006年26卷3期:222-225
[111]Leontief W,Wassily.Quantitative in Put-output Relations in the Economic System o f the United States.Review of Economics Statistics.1936(3):105-125
[112]Carter,A.P.Changes in Input-output Structure Since 1972.Data Resources Interindustry Review.1980(6):111-117.
[113]Chenery,H.B.,Robinson,S.,Syrquin,M.Industrialization and Growth.New York.Oxford University Press.1986
[114]邱寿丰.循环经济规划的生态效率方法及应用[博士论文].同济大学.2007
[115]Rose,A.M iernyk,W.Input-output Analysis:the First Fifty Years.Econom.c Systems Research.1989(2):229-271
[116]Chen,Xikang,Guo,Jue.China Economic Structure and SDA Model.Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering.2000(2):142-148
[117]Kanemitsu,H.Ohnishi,H.An Input-output Analysis of Technological Changes in the Japanese Economy:1970-1980.Frontiers of Input-Output Analysis.New York:Oxford University Press,1989:308-323
[118]Han,X.Structure Change and Labor Requirement of the Japanese Economy,Economic Systems Research.1995(1):47-65
[119]Fujikawa,K.,Milana,C.Input-output Decomposition Analysis of Sectoral Price Gaps between Japan and Chin.Economic Systems Research.2002(1):5-9
[120]Lin,X.,Polenske,K.R.Input-output Anatomy of China's Energy Use Changes in the 1980s,Economic Systems Research.1995(1):67-84
[121]De Haan,M.A Structural Decomposition Analysis of Pollution in the Netherlands,Economic Systems Research.2001(2):181-196
[122]刘惠玲.基于系统动力学的城市公交系统模型.城市公共交通.2007年6期:24-27
[123]舒华英.电信运营产业供应链的系统动力学模型[博士学位论文].北京邮电大学.2004
[124]孙新新,沈冰.宝鸡市水资源承载力系统动力学仿真模型研究.西安建筑科技大学学报.2007年39卷1期:72-77
[125]彭志高,滕春贤.基于系统动力学的供应链网络仿真模型的研究.哈尔滨理工大学学报.2007年12卷2期:153-156
[126]李涵,谭章禄.项目治理的系统动力学初探.煤炭经济研究.2007年6期:57-58
[127]N.I.Alekseev,D.A.Kissin,V.E.Gorelov.Design Iimprovements in Foam-cyclone Cleaners by the Value Engineering Method.Chemical and Petroleum Engineering.1988.Vol24:15-17
[128]Alastair Nicholson,Katarzyna Zdunczyk.Implementing the Service Concept through Value Engineering.IFIP International Federation for Information Processing.2005 Vol160:359-374
[129]建设工程经济全国一级建造师执业资格考试用书编委.建设工程经济.建筑工业出版社.2004
[130]黄时进.论系统论在工程伦理研究中的运用.系统科学学报.2007年15卷3期:90-92
[131]树伟,姜克隽,刘德顺.中国交通发展的能源消费与对策研究.中国软科学.2006年第5期:58-62
[132]朱松丽.交通需求和交通能源需求预测方法.数量经济技术经济研究.2004年5期:100-108
[133]黄镭.管道运输项目投资后期财务评价.国际石油经济.2003年04期:44-47
[134]魏一鸣.中国能源报告.科学出版社北京 2006
[135]陈其幸等.连云港市水资源开发利用初探.东北水利水电.2005年第3期:29-31
[136]薛松贵等.黄河流域水资源管理.中英流域水资源管理综合研讨会
[137]张承志.我国下大力气防治海洋污染.经济世界.2001年06期:9-12
[138]路正南.产业结构调整对我国能源消费影响的实证分析.数量经济技术经济研究.1999(12):5-8
[139]史丹,张金融.产业结构变动对能源消费的影响.经济理论与经济管理.2003(8):13-20
[140]徐博,刘芳.产业结构变动对能源消费的影响.辽宁工程技术大学学报(社会科学版).2004(4)17-21
[141]何祚庥,王亦楠.特别关注重视第三产业的能源利用效率.2004年04月28日经济日报
[142]孔国强.通信业固定资产投资效益分析.中国投资.2002年9期:77-79
[143]杨瑞生.邮电投资结构和投资效益分析与评价的研究[硕士学位论文].北京邮电大学.2005
[144]林明金.投资与经营基础设施领域前景广阔.投资北京.2005年第一期:40-41
[145]贾鹏云.基础设施投融资体制改革初显成效.投资北京.2005年第5期:14-16
[146]杨军.基础设施投资问题研究[博士学位论文].中南财经政法大学.2001
[147]金磊.“十五”期间北京市必须重视防灾减灾工作.北京社会科学.2001年第2期:147-152
[148]柯礼丹.全国总用水量向零增长过渡期的水资源对策研究.中国水利.2002年3期:22-24
[149]李小冬,关柯等.大型承包商国际竞争力的综合评价及其模拟分析.哈尔滨建筑大学学报.2004.4.Vol33:106-109
[150]史育龙.“十五”我国城市化年均速度不突破1%.2001年04月29日 中国宏观经济信息网http://www.macrochina.com.cn/zhzt/000053/002/20010429003719.shtml
[151]宋序彤,许俊仪.我国城市供水排水产业发展分析.给水排水.2005Vol31:2-8
[152]黄毅,张荣娟.北京市能源消费情况及国内外比较分析.数据.2007年第1期:24-25
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |