转型期中国资本外逃研究
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摘要
资本外逃是发展中国家特别是经济转型国家中普遍存在的一个问题,困扰了许多国家的经济发展。作为世界上最大的发展中国家,中国在转型期也存在着大量的资本外逃问题。本文利用现代经济学的分析方法深入研究了转型期中国的资本外逃,在借鉴国内外研究文献的基础上,对转型期中国资本外逃的涵义进行了界定,并综合资本外逃的间接测算法、混合法、权益差额调整法,力求准确地测算出1982-2004年中国资本外逃的规模。通过研究发现,转型期中国的资本外逃具有以下特点:资本外逃的规模较大,阶段性明显;资本外逃中含有大量的过渡性资本外逃;资本外逃对中国经济并没有带来重大的影响。
转型期中国资本外逃是如何进行的,本文分析了通过经常帐户、资本与金融帐户、地下渠道等各种途径进行的资本外逃。并认为,经常项目及资本与金融项目的开放程度无疑会对资本外逃的规模产生一定的影响。为此,本文从实体经济层面的商品贸易与服务贸易开放度以及金融层面的直接投资与间接投资开放度的变化来界定我国的经济开放度指标,运用协整分析方法实证分析了1982-2004年我国资本外逃与经济开放度各指标之间的关系。结果表明:资本外逃规模与经济总体开放度、商品贸易开放度、直接投资开放度、间接投资开放度之间呈正向的协整关系,而与服务贸易开放度之间呈反向的协整关系。
为什么中国在转型期会出现规模巨大的资本外逃呢?理论分析表明:中国经济转型必然导致中国资本外逃。在理论分析基础上,对转型期中国资本外逃影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明,人民币实际汇率贬值程度、外债流量、国际储备增长率和经济增长率同转型期中国资本外逃有着显著的相关关系,是影响中国资本外逃的主要因素。
在分析资本外逃的经济效应时,发现资本外逃虽然没有对转型期中国的宏观经济造成严重的后果,但这不意味着资本外逃对中国的经济发展没有任何负面影响。资本外逃毕竟是一种脱离政府监管的非正常的资本流动,对于经济的危害是不可避免的。本文分别从资本外逃对中国国内经济、中国经济对外开放、中国社会安全与稳定等三个方面的影响,进行了较详细的分析。通过对转型期中国资本外逃与中国经济增长的关系进行实证分析,发现中国资本外逃并没有对中国经济增长带来严重的冲击。为此,本文从转型期中国资本外逃的规模相对比较平稳;转型期中国没有出现投资不足;中国国际经济的宏观层面保持较为良性的发展态势等方面进行了解释。本文认为,即使现阶段中国资本外逃的直接危害性还不很大,但是一旦宏观经济形势发生逆转或者渐进化的改革遇到不得不面对的攻坚战,资本外逃积蓄已久的冲击力会突然爆发出来,对经济形成巨大的冲击和破坏力,甚至引发金融和经济危机。
近几年,中国连续出现了国际收支巨额顺差和资本流入,人民币也面临着进一步升值的压力,资本外逃问题得到一定程度的缓解。但本文认为,在转型期的中国,引发资本外逃的深层次的因素远未得到有效地解决。而且在中国已经入世,中国经济进一步开放的背景下,中国资本外逃将会出现一些新的特征。如何防范转型期中国资本外逃呢?本文指导思想是,深化政治经济体制改革,消除诱发资本外逃跑的不利因素,控制资本外逃的规模,弱化其负面影响。具体而言:(1)加快金融业改革开放步伐。推进利率与汇率市场化改革;适当放松金融管制,为居民对外投资创造条件;培育健全的资本市场。(2)建立现代产权制度。界定产权明确的边界;解决公有产权所有者虚位的问题;在立法上保证私有产权的平等地位;确认资本所得收入的合法性。(3)建立防范资本外逃的监控机制、从路径上堵塞资本外逃的渠道。建立反洗钱联合金融监管网络,进一步加强国际间的合作;设置对经常项目真实性的监管机制;完善对资本与金融项目的监控机制;严厉打击非法方式的资本外逃;建立资本外逃的预警机制。
Capital flight, which is prevalent in developing countries, particularly in countries with economic system transition, stands in the way of economic development. Being the biggest developing country in the world, China is also plagued with the serious problem of capital flight. Employing analytical approaches of modern economics, this dissertation intends to conduct a thorough research into the capital flight in China during the stage of economic system transition. After taking a literature review home and abroad, the dissertation attempts a connotative definition of the capital flight in China during the stage of economic system transition. Using the indirect measurement approach, composite approach and interest balance adjustment approach, the dissertation attempts a precise measurement of the amount of capital flight in China during the years 1982-2004. Through the research, the dissertation identifies some distinctive traits revealed in the capital flight in China during the transitional stage: relatively larger scale, with marked phase; involving large amount of transitional capital flight; having a minor impact upon China’s economy.
How the capital flight proceeds in China during its transitional stage? The dissertation researches into various capital flight channels: current account, capital and financial account, underground channels, etc; and argues that the openness in current accounts, capital and financial accounts undoubtedly exerts an influence on the scale of capital flight. The dissertation attempts to determine the indexes of China’s economic openness degree based on the openness degree of commodity trade and service trade (substantial economy level), and that of direct investment and indirect investment (financial level). Through cointegration analysis, the dissertation does an empirical study on the correlation between capital flight in China during the years 1982-2004 and various indexes of openness degree of China’s economy, and draws a conclusion that the scale of capital flight has a positive cointegration relation with the openness degree of overall economy, of commodity trade, of direct investment and of indirect investment, however, a negative cointegration relation with that of service trade.
Why large scale of capital flight happens in China during its transitional stage? Theoretical analysis indicates that China’s economic system transition inevitably begets capital flight, and empirical study identifies major factors begetting capital flight: the real exchange rate depreciation of RMB, the amount of foreign loans, the growth rate of international reserve and economy, which has significant statistical correlation with the capital flight in transitional China.
In analyzing the impact of capital flight on economy, the dissertation finds that although capital flight had no disastrous consequence to macro-economy, it does have negative impact on China’s economic development. As an abnormal capital flow free from government supervision, capital flight is bound to endanger the economy. The dissertation conducts an in-depth analysis of the impact of capital flight upon China’s domestic economy, reform and opening-up, and social security and stability. Through an empirical study on the relation between the capital flight in China during its transitional period and China’s economic growth, the dissertation finds that the capital flight does not deal a destructive blow to China’s economy. The dissertation elaborates that the capital flight in China is on a relatively normal scale, there is no shortage of investment in China during its transitional stage, and China’s international economy maintains sound development. The dissertation argues that in spite of relatively minor hazard at the present stage, if we do nothing to reverse the trend, once the macro-economy goes worse or the incremental reform encounters tough challenges, the accumulated impacts of capital flight will break out, dealing a tremendous and destructive blow to the economy, even triggering financial and economic crisis.
In the recent years, with huge surplus in China’s balance of payments and capital inflow for consecutive years, and more appreciation pressure on its RMB, the issue of capital flight is addressed to some extent; nevertheless, the dissertation argues that the fundamental factors triggering capital flight have been virtually little touched in transitional China, moreover, new features will emerge in the capital flight with China’s accession to WTO and further expansion of its opening-up scope. What counter measures shall be adopted to address the issue of capital flight? As the dissertation proposes, the guidelines are: deepen political and economic restructuring, eliminate the factors triggering capital flight, control the scale of capital flight, and weaken its negative effects. To be more specific: firstly, speed up financial reform. Promote the reform of interest rate and exchange rate; relax financial restriction to create conditions for citizens to make investments abroad; cultivate and improve capital market. Secondly, establish the modern property system. Define the boundary of property, and resolve the phantom problem regarding property owners; guarantee the equal status of private property in legal terms, and the validity of capital income. Thirdly, establish the supervision mechanism against capital flight so as to block the channels of capital flight. Set up coordinated financial supervision network against laundry, and further speed up international cooperation; establish mechanism monitoring the authenticity of current accounts; improve mechanism monitoring capital and financial accounts; track down illegal capital flight; set up alarming mechanism against capital flight.
转型期中国资本外逃是如何进行的,本文分析了通过经常帐户、资本与金融帐户、地下渠道等各种途径进行的资本外逃。并认为,经常项目及资本与金融项目的开放程度无疑会对资本外逃的规模产生一定的影响。为此,本文从实体经济层面的商品贸易与服务贸易开放度以及金融层面的直接投资与间接投资开放度的变化来界定我国的经济开放度指标,运用协整分析方法实证分析了1982-2004年我国资本外逃与经济开放度各指标之间的关系。结果表明:资本外逃规模与经济总体开放度、商品贸易开放度、直接投资开放度、间接投资开放度之间呈正向的协整关系,而与服务贸易开放度之间呈反向的协整关系。
为什么中国在转型期会出现规模巨大的资本外逃呢?理论分析表明:中国经济转型必然导致中国资本外逃。在理论分析基础上,对转型期中国资本外逃影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明,人民币实际汇率贬值程度、外债流量、国际储备增长率和经济增长率同转型期中国资本外逃有着显著的相关关系,是影响中国资本外逃的主要因素。
在分析资本外逃的经济效应时,发现资本外逃虽然没有对转型期中国的宏观经济造成严重的后果,但这不意味着资本外逃对中国的经济发展没有任何负面影响。资本外逃毕竟是一种脱离政府监管的非正常的资本流动,对于经济的危害是不可避免的。本文分别从资本外逃对中国国内经济、中国经济对外开放、中国社会安全与稳定等三个方面的影响,进行了较详细的分析。通过对转型期中国资本外逃与中国经济增长的关系进行实证分析,发现中国资本外逃并没有对中国经济增长带来严重的冲击。为此,本文从转型期中国资本外逃的规模相对比较平稳;转型期中国没有出现投资不足;中国国际经济的宏观层面保持较为良性的发展态势等方面进行了解释。本文认为,即使现阶段中国资本外逃的直接危害性还不很大,但是一旦宏观经济形势发生逆转或者渐进化的改革遇到不得不面对的攻坚战,资本外逃积蓄已久的冲击力会突然爆发出来,对经济形成巨大的冲击和破坏力,甚至引发金融和经济危机。
近几年,中国连续出现了国际收支巨额顺差和资本流入,人民币也面临着进一步升值的压力,资本外逃问题得到一定程度的缓解。但本文认为,在转型期的中国,引发资本外逃的深层次的因素远未得到有效地解决。而且在中国已经入世,中国经济进一步开放的背景下,中国资本外逃将会出现一些新的特征。如何防范转型期中国资本外逃呢?本文指导思想是,深化政治经济体制改革,消除诱发资本外逃跑的不利因素,控制资本外逃的规模,弱化其负面影响。具体而言:(1)加快金融业改革开放步伐。推进利率与汇率市场化改革;适当放松金融管制,为居民对外投资创造条件;培育健全的资本市场。(2)建立现代产权制度。界定产权明确的边界;解决公有产权所有者虚位的问题;在立法上保证私有产权的平等地位;确认资本所得收入的合法性。(3)建立防范资本外逃的监控机制、从路径上堵塞资本外逃的渠道。建立反洗钱联合金融监管网络,进一步加强国际间的合作;设置对经常项目真实性的监管机制;完善对资本与金融项目的监控机制;严厉打击非法方式的资本外逃;建立资本外逃的预警机制。
Capital flight, which is prevalent in developing countries, particularly in countries with economic system transition, stands in the way of economic development. Being the biggest developing country in the world, China is also plagued with the serious problem of capital flight. Employing analytical approaches of modern economics, this dissertation intends to conduct a thorough research into the capital flight in China during the stage of economic system transition. After taking a literature review home and abroad, the dissertation attempts a connotative definition of the capital flight in China during the stage of economic system transition. Using the indirect measurement approach, composite approach and interest balance adjustment approach, the dissertation attempts a precise measurement of the amount of capital flight in China during the years 1982-2004. Through the research, the dissertation identifies some distinctive traits revealed in the capital flight in China during the transitional stage: relatively larger scale, with marked phase; involving large amount of transitional capital flight; having a minor impact upon China’s economy.
How the capital flight proceeds in China during its transitional stage? The dissertation researches into various capital flight channels: current account, capital and financial account, underground channels, etc; and argues that the openness in current accounts, capital and financial accounts undoubtedly exerts an influence on the scale of capital flight. The dissertation attempts to determine the indexes of China’s economic openness degree based on the openness degree of commodity trade and service trade (substantial economy level), and that of direct investment and indirect investment (financial level). Through cointegration analysis, the dissertation does an empirical study on the correlation between capital flight in China during the years 1982-2004 and various indexes of openness degree of China’s economy, and draws a conclusion that the scale of capital flight has a positive cointegration relation with the openness degree of overall economy, of commodity trade, of direct investment and of indirect investment, however, a negative cointegration relation with that of service trade.
Why large scale of capital flight happens in China during its transitional stage? Theoretical analysis indicates that China’s economic system transition inevitably begets capital flight, and empirical study identifies major factors begetting capital flight: the real exchange rate depreciation of RMB, the amount of foreign loans, the growth rate of international reserve and economy, which has significant statistical correlation with the capital flight in transitional China.
In analyzing the impact of capital flight on economy, the dissertation finds that although capital flight had no disastrous consequence to macro-economy, it does have negative impact on China’s economic development. As an abnormal capital flow free from government supervision, capital flight is bound to endanger the economy. The dissertation conducts an in-depth analysis of the impact of capital flight upon China’s domestic economy, reform and opening-up, and social security and stability. Through an empirical study on the relation between the capital flight in China during its transitional period and China’s economic growth, the dissertation finds that the capital flight does not deal a destructive blow to China’s economy. The dissertation elaborates that the capital flight in China is on a relatively normal scale, there is no shortage of investment in China during its transitional stage, and China’s international economy maintains sound development. The dissertation argues that in spite of relatively minor hazard at the present stage, if we do nothing to reverse the trend, once the macro-economy goes worse or the incremental reform encounters tough challenges, the accumulated impacts of capital flight will break out, dealing a tremendous and destructive blow to the economy, even triggering financial and economic crisis.
In the recent years, with huge surplus in China’s balance of payments and capital inflow for consecutive years, and more appreciation pressure on its RMB, the issue of capital flight is addressed to some extent; nevertheless, the dissertation argues that the fundamental factors triggering capital flight have been virtually little touched in transitional China, moreover, new features will emerge in the capital flight with China’s accession to WTO and further expansion of its opening-up scope. What counter measures shall be adopted to address the issue of capital flight? As the dissertation proposes, the guidelines are: deepen political and economic restructuring, eliminate the factors triggering capital flight, control the scale of capital flight, and weaken its negative effects. To be more specific: firstly, speed up financial reform. Promote the reform of interest rate and exchange rate; relax financial restriction to create conditions for citizens to make investments abroad; cultivate and improve capital market. Secondly, establish the modern property system. Define the boundary of property, and resolve the phantom problem regarding property owners; guarantee the equal status of private property in legal terms, and the validity of capital income. Thirdly, establish the supervision mechanism against capital flight so as to block the channels of capital flight. Set up coordinated financial supervision network against laundry, and further speed up international cooperation; establish mechanism monitoring the authenticity of current accounts; improve mechanism monitoring capital and financial accounts; track down illegal capital flight; set up alarming mechanism against capital flight.
引文
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