网络时政论坛舆论领袖研究
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摘要
网络论坛是中国网民一个重要的意见传播渠道。论坛舆论领袖对网络舆论导向起着至关重要的作用。本文以人民网强国社区的中日论坛为个案,采用数据挖掘、网上调查和深度访谈方法对网络时政论坛舆论领袖这个重要群体进行了实证研究。
本研究首先采用数据挖掘方法筛选网络论坛舆论领袖,然后从论坛领袖地位稳定性、论坛领袖社交网络特征、论坛领袖帖子文本内容、论坛领袖人口统计学特征等多个维度刻画论坛舆论领袖特点。具体说来,本文按照如下6个步骤展开:第1步梳理国内外网络论坛和舆论领袖研究成果,提出本文研究思路和技术路线。第2步建构网络论坛角色划分模型,筛选论坛舆论领袖。第3步分析网络舆论领袖的更替现象,探讨网络论坛舆论领袖地位稳定性。第4步从社会网视角探究网络舆论领袖在论坛社会网络中所处结构性位置以及“嵌入”位置的社会资本。第5步剖析论坛舆论领袖的议题框架。第6步描述网络论坛舆论领袖的人口统计学特征,分析他们的有关表现。
研究发现:
(1)本研究提出的网络论坛ID类型划分模型能够有效筛选论坛舆论领袖和其它类型参与者。与自我报告法相比,该模型能精确测量每个论坛参与者的论坛影响力和声望值,排除了自我报告中自我认识不符合客观实际的情况,划分结果更加可信。
(2)网络论坛舆论领袖存在频繁更替现象。舆论领袖变迁分为4类情况:稳定的论坛舆论领袖、比较稳定的论坛舆论领袖、动荡的论坛舆论领袖、昙花一现的领袖。其中动荡类舆论领袖和昙花一现的舆论领袖比例最大。决定舆论领袖地位更替、变迁因素是ID发帖“数量”和“质量”。发帖勤奋是成为论坛舆论领袖的必要条件,帖子质量是保持舆论领袖地位的关键因素。写作认真、态度负责、条理清晰、论证严密、言之有物的帖子能够吸引网友点击和回复,是确立稳定的论坛领袖地位的影响因素。“内容为王”是网络时代的制胜之道。
(3)本研究采用ID中心性、网络规模、互选对数、密度、经纪性、中介性和结构洞指数等指标对比分析不同类型ID拥有的社会资本,发现:中日论坛领袖类ID拥有的社会资本低于靶子和焦点类ID,领袖ID的社交面、中心性、中介性明显低于后两类ID。在中日论坛,讨论多以论战形式展开。领袖类ID喜好发帖挑战靶子ID,被挑战的靶子ID选择有利的“进入快捷方式”(access)和“时机”(timing)反扑;因此,中日论坛是领袖类ID与靶子类ID争夺稀缺象征资本的“场域”,双方力量的消长决定场域的结构。
(4)通过论坛舆论领袖类ID和靶子类ID的帖子文本内容的对比分析,可将中日论坛帖子的框架总结为:领袖框架和靶子框架。领袖框架=战争历史主题+政府主角;靶子框架=中日经济文化交流+非政府主角。领袖框架强调历史,靶子重视现实;领袖反省过去,靶子放眼未来;领袖着重批判,靶子呼吁友好。
(5)通过网上调查和访谈揭示中日论坛舆论领袖在现实生活中并非一呼百应的人物,而是为衣食住行、柴米油盐而努力打拼的草根百姓。一般可把他们描述为受过大专以上教育、有强烈爱国热情、收入中等偏下、对现实生活不大满意、有强烈表达欲望的中年男性。
中文网络论坛舆论领袖是个值得关注的领域,需要更多客观、务实、科学、实证研究。本研究的创新点在于首次运用数据挖掘方法系统研究中文网络时政论坛舆论领袖群体,设计了网络论坛角色划分模型和分析系统(eFIAS),可以客观、准确筛选出网络论坛领袖类ID,为今后有关网络论坛舆论领袖和网络舆论的研究打下坚实基础。
BBS as an important news and information dissemination channel in China has been a unneglect phenomenon, where the BBS opinion leaders play significant roles in formation and guidance of public opinion. The dissertation explores the opinion leadership of the Sino-Japan BBS of Strong Nation Forum as the study case, by the means of data-mining, online survey and interview, which enriches the outcomes in the field both theoretically and practically.
The research abides the logic from virtual to reality. First construct the Opinion Leadership Filtering Model to filter out the BBS opinion leaders, then outline the characteristic of BBS opinion leaders from the angel of the stability of opinion leadership, the social network, the posting frame and their demographics to reveal what kind of person they are in real life.
The research results go as following:
a. The Model posted in the dissertation to categorize different types of BBS participants can provide valid result on select of opinion leaders and its followers. Moreover, compared with the widely-used opinion leadership measuring method-the self report, the filtering result is more objective.
b. The BBS opinion leadership is unstable. According to the switch among different roles, the BBS opinion leadership can be categorized as four types: very stable opinion leadership, stable opinion leadership, unstable opinion leadership and the transient opinion leadership, which the last two possesses the largest portion. The attainment of BBS opinion leadership lies in the quantity and quality of posting, in which the quantity is the prerequisite and quality is the critical factor. The high-quality posting, i.e. with high sense of social responsibility, clear in expression and logic, rich in materials and data can win the clicking and replies of post-readers and establish the stable statue of opinion leadership in a long run.
c. Through the analysis of the social network of Sino-Japan BBS participants, the opinion leaders do not locate in the center of the discussion network. In contrast, those often criticized IDs are stars of the discussion network. Further analysis reveals that the opinion leaders have the habit to challenge some participants with different political interests and mixed subgroups commonly exist in Sino-Japan BBS; thus debates are common phenomenon among participants with conflicting political interests.
d. The content analysis of the frames of different types of BBS participants comes to the conclusion that there are two conflicting frames in sino-Japan BBS, the Opinion Leadership Frame and the Target Frame.The former frame empasis on the reflection of past history while the latter on friendship and future development. The case study of the 69th Anniversery of Anti-Japanses Arregrssion in Sino-Japan BBS reveals that the paintful collective memory of Nanjing Massaca during World War II is the source the Opinion Leadership Frame.
e. Finally the online survey and interview reveals that the Sino Japan opinion leaders are not as powerful as in real life. In reality they are common people with college education, middle and lower income, and with strong passion of patriotism and some dissatisfaction with present life, middle-aged male, some of whom have to struggle for life. Because the BBS environment inclines to some changes of human being’s communicative behavior, online flames and aggression happen occasionally due to the oniminity of BBS.
In brief, the BBS opinion leadership in China is a field requiring more objective, scientific and positivistic research outcomes. The contribution of this dissertation is the construction of BBS Opinion Leadership Filtering Model based on the data-mining method, which provides a new perspective on this topic both in theory and methodology.
本研究首先采用数据挖掘方法筛选网络论坛舆论领袖,然后从论坛领袖地位稳定性、论坛领袖社交网络特征、论坛领袖帖子文本内容、论坛领袖人口统计学特征等多个维度刻画论坛舆论领袖特点。具体说来,本文按照如下6个步骤展开:第1步梳理国内外网络论坛和舆论领袖研究成果,提出本文研究思路和技术路线。第2步建构网络论坛角色划分模型,筛选论坛舆论领袖。第3步分析网络舆论领袖的更替现象,探讨网络论坛舆论领袖地位稳定性。第4步从社会网视角探究网络舆论领袖在论坛社会网络中所处结构性位置以及“嵌入”位置的社会资本。第5步剖析论坛舆论领袖的议题框架。第6步描述网络论坛舆论领袖的人口统计学特征,分析他们的有关表现。
研究发现:
(1)本研究提出的网络论坛ID类型划分模型能够有效筛选论坛舆论领袖和其它类型参与者。与自我报告法相比,该模型能精确测量每个论坛参与者的论坛影响力和声望值,排除了自我报告中自我认识不符合客观实际的情况,划分结果更加可信。
(2)网络论坛舆论领袖存在频繁更替现象。舆论领袖变迁分为4类情况:稳定的论坛舆论领袖、比较稳定的论坛舆论领袖、动荡的论坛舆论领袖、昙花一现的领袖。其中动荡类舆论领袖和昙花一现的舆论领袖比例最大。决定舆论领袖地位更替、变迁因素是ID发帖“数量”和“质量”。发帖勤奋是成为论坛舆论领袖的必要条件,帖子质量是保持舆论领袖地位的关键因素。写作认真、态度负责、条理清晰、论证严密、言之有物的帖子能够吸引网友点击和回复,是确立稳定的论坛领袖地位的影响因素。“内容为王”是网络时代的制胜之道。
(3)本研究采用ID中心性、网络规模、互选对数、密度、经纪性、中介性和结构洞指数等指标对比分析不同类型ID拥有的社会资本,发现:中日论坛领袖类ID拥有的社会资本低于靶子和焦点类ID,领袖ID的社交面、中心性、中介性明显低于后两类ID。在中日论坛,讨论多以论战形式展开。领袖类ID喜好发帖挑战靶子ID,被挑战的靶子ID选择有利的“进入快捷方式”(access)和“时机”(timing)反扑;因此,中日论坛是领袖类ID与靶子类ID争夺稀缺象征资本的“场域”,双方力量的消长决定场域的结构。
(4)通过论坛舆论领袖类ID和靶子类ID的帖子文本内容的对比分析,可将中日论坛帖子的框架总结为:领袖框架和靶子框架。领袖框架=战争历史主题+政府主角;靶子框架=中日经济文化交流+非政府主角。领袖框架强调历史,靶子重视现实;领袖反省过去,靶子放眼未来;领袖着重批判,靶子呼吁友好。
(5)通过网上调查和访谈揭示中日论坛舆论领袖在现实生活中并非一呼百应的人物,而是为衣食住行、柴米油盐而努力打拼的草根百姓。一般可把他们描述为受过大专以上教育、有强烈爱国热情、收入中等偏下、对现实生活不大满意、有强烈表达欲望的中年男性。
中文网络论坛舆论领袖是个值得关注的领域,需要更多客观、务实、科学、实证研究。本研究的创新点在于首次运用数据挖掘方法系统研究中文网络时政论坛舆论领袖群体,设计了网络论坛角色划分模型和分析系统(eFIAS),可以客观、准确筛选出网络论坛领袖类ID,为今后有关网络论坛舆论领袖和网络舆论的研究打下坚实基础。
BBS as an important news and information dissemination channel in China has been a unneglect phenomenon, where the BBS opinion leaders play significant roles in formation and guidance of public opinion. The dissertation explores the opinion leadership of the Sino-Japan BBS of Strong Nation Forum as the study case, by the means of data-mining, online survey and interview, which enriches the outcomes in the field both theoretically and practically.
The research abides the logic from virtual to reality. First construct the Opinion Leadership Filtering Model to filter out the BBS opinion leaders, then outline the characteristic of BBS opinion leaders from the angel of the stability of opinion leadership, the social network, the posting frame and their demographics to reveal what kind of person they are in real life.
The research results go as following:
a. The Model posted in the dissertation to categorize different types of BBS participants can provide valid result on select of opinion leaders and its followers. Moreover, compared with the widely-used opinion leadership measuring method-the self report, the filtering result is more objective.
b. The BBS opinion leadership is unstable. According to the switch among different roles, the BBS opinion leadership can be categorized as four types: very stable opinion leadership, stable opinion leadership, unstable opinion leadership and the transient opinion leadership, which the last two possesses the largest portion. The attainment of BBS opinion leadership lies in the quantity and quality of posting, in which the quantity is the prerequisite and quality is the critical factor. The high-quality posting, i.e. with high sense of social responsibility, clear in expression and logic, rich in materials and data can win the clicking and replies of post-readers and establish the stable statue of opinion leadership in a long run.
c. Through the analysis of the social network of Sino-Japan BBS participants, the opinion leaders do not locate in the center of the discussion network. In contrast, those often criticized IDs are stars of the discussion network. Further analysis reveals that the opinion leaders have the habit to challenge some participants with different political interests and mixed subgroups commonly exist in Sino-Japan BBS; thus debates are common phenomenon among participants with conflicting political interests.
d. The content analysis of the frames of different types of BBS participants comes to the conclusion that there are two conflicting frames in sino-Japan BBS, the Opinion Leadership Frame and the Target Frame.The former frame empasis on the reflection of past history while the latter on friendship and future development. The case study of the 69th Anniversery of Anti-Japanses Arregrssion in Sino-Japan BBS reveals that the paintful collective memory of Nanjing Massaca during World War II is the source the Opinion Leadership Frame.
e. Finally the online survey and interview reveals that the Sino Japan opinion leaders are not as powerful as in real life. In reality they are common people with college education, middle and lower income, and with strong passion of patriotism and some dissatisfaction with present life, middle-aged male, some of whom have to struggle for life. Because the BBS environment inclines to some changes of human being’s communicative behavior, online flames and aggression happen occasionally due to the oniminity of BBS.
In brief, the BBS opinion leadership in China is a field requiring more objective, scientific and positivistic research outcomes. The contribution of this dissertation is the construction of BBS Opinion Leadership Filtering Model based on the data-mining method, which provides a new perspective on this topic both in theory and methodology.
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