开放经济下中国金融发展的生产率效应研究
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摘要
改革开放以来,随着对外开放程度的不断提高,中国经济增长取得了举世瞩目的成绩。在中国经济持续高速增长的进程中,金融因素的核心作用进一步凸显,金融发展已经成为经济增长的重要因素和先导力量。大量研究表明,中国金融发展促进经济增长主要是通过大量的资本投入来实现的,这种由高储蓄率形成的高投资增长率成为推动中国经济30年高速增长的根本动力。然而投资驱动型经济增长模式注定是不可持续的,基于发展经济学的经验文献已经证实了长期经济增长主要是由生产率来推动的,而非传统意义上的投资驱动。因此,从一定意义上来说,对金融发展问题的关注应该转移到金融发展的生产率效应上来,尤其在开放经济的大背景下,金融发展如何通过对生产率的促进来推动经济的长期可持续增长,已经成为“金融-增长”关系研究的一个全新话题。
基于此,本文从理论和实证两个层面考察了开放经济下金融发展影响生产率增长的内在机制,尤其是金融发展通过国际贸易和国际直接投资的开放经济渠道促进生产率增长的途径。第3章首先构建了基于内生增长模型的金融发展影响生产率增长的理论框架,打破了传统经济增长理论中技术外生的假定,探讨金融因素对生产率水平的内生推动作用。其次我们重点考虑了国际贸易和国际直接投资两种开放经济情况,考察金融发展如何发挥其特有的功能,通过进出口和FDI技术外溢来间接促进东道国生产率增长。我们以对外开放作为理论分析的逻辑起点,力图将金融发展、对外开放与生产率增长这三个因素纳入到一个理论框架中,在理论上构建了基于内生增长模型以及开放经济视角下金融发展与生产率增长的理论框架。
随后我们在对金融发展和生产率的各个指标进行统计描述的基础上,分别从总量数据和分省面板数据两个层面进行了实证研究。在对总量数据建立“3×3”VAR模型的基础上,我们发现了金融发展对生产率增长具有强有力推动作用的经验证据,但进一步的深入剖析则发现不同金融变量对生产率的影响也存在差异,即金融发展规模的扩大主要影响了劳动生产率的增长,而金融发展效率的提升主要对全要素生产率产生促进作用。而基于分省Panel Data的回归结果也表明金融发展规模的扩大不能够促进全要素生产率增长,只有金融发展效率的提升才能对全要素生产率产生显著的正向影响,而且这种影响是通过技术进步渠道实现的,而非技术效率的改善。另外,基于三大区域的面板数据实证检验也表明了金融发展的生产率效应在三大区域的差异性:东部最大、西部次之,而中部最差。
第5章我们考虑了金融发展如何通过国际贸易来促进全要素生产率增长。我们在对贸易规模和贸易结构的考察中引入了金融变量的影响,考虑金融因素在促进贸易规模扩大、贸易结构优化,进而全要素生产率增长中的内在机理。实证结果表明,金融发展不仅能够促进贸易规模的扩大,而且还能促使贸易结构优化。但是从具体的金融指标来看,只有中长期贷款余额的增加和以存贷比表示的金融发展效率的提升才能产生贸易规模和贸易结构效应,而贷款总量的增加并不能产生这种效应。基于这一结论,我们用金融发展对贸易影响的回归拟和值来考察全要生产率增长的情况,从而巧妙地将三者整合在一个框架中,并得出了有意义的结论。我们证明了金融发展通过国际贸易对全要素生产率增长的促进作用的存在性,但这种效应只有东部地区才有,中西部地区有由于金融发展水平的滞后而不存在这种效应。另外这种效应的发挥主要也是通过技术进步渠道来实现的,其对技术效率的改善作用不明显,从而印证了第4章的实证结论。我们在实证检验中还发现金融发展通过国际贸易影响全要素生产率增长要受到各个地区人力资本水平的影响,即我们的研究结论支持了“人力资本门槛”效应的存在。
第6章在对FDI溢出效应进行重新检验的基础上,反思了FDI溢出效应的区域差异性和东道国吸收能力的重要性,并引入了金融因素作为吸收能力的核心变量来考察其在FDI技术外溢中的关键性作用。我们的实证结论发现了我国FDI溢出效应的整体显著性和区域差异性并存的事实,即从总体上看,我国吸收的FDI存在着显著的溢出效应,但这种溢出只在东部地区存在,中西部地区没有这种效应。在引入金融因素后,我们发现金融发展能够很好地解释FDI技术外溢的区域差异性,即东部地区金融发展水平较高,因而FDI溢出效应也较为明显;而中西部地区金融发展水平较低,FDI技术溢出影响全要素生产率增长的现象不明显。
Since reform and opening up, China's economic growth has made remarkable achievements. In the process of rapid economy growth, China's financial sector has played a key role and became a decisive factor for supporting other economy sectors. A considerable amount of research has showed that the channel of financial development affecting economic growth mainly through it's capital investment, and such a high investment rate has became a basic driving force in sustaining China's 30 years high-speed economic growth.. However, investment-driven growth is bound to be unsustainable. Some empirical literature has proved that long-term economic growth was mainly driven by productivity, rather than the traditional view of investment-driven. Therefore, in a certain sense, the financial development of the concern should be shifted to it's productivity effect, especially in the opening background. How to realize financial sector's productivity effect has become a brand new topic in the evolution of "finance-growth" relationship.
So, this paper study the internal mechanism of the financial development on productivity growth from the theoretical and empirical view, especially the channel through international trade and FDI. Chapter 3 construct a systematic theoretical framework basing on endogenous growth model. This framework break the exogenous technology assumption and inquiry the endogenous impact of financial development on productivity growth.. In chapter 3, we focus on channels from international trade and FDI, and peruse the effect of financial development on productivity growth through the open economy. Considering the open economy as our logical starting point, we try to lay the three factors, open economy, financial development and productivity growth, into a unit theoretical framework.
Then, basing on statistical description of various financial development and productivity growth indicators, we proceed on empirical estimation from gross data and provincial data respectively. We find significant positive link between financial development and productivity growth from "3×3" VAR empirical model using gross data from 1990-2004. We also get another important conclusion that different finance indicators have different productivity effect, the scale indicators of financial development mainly promote labor productivity whereas the efficiency indicators of financial development mainly affect total factor productivity. The same conclusion are drawn from panel data empirical model. We also find that productivity effect of financial development are mainly through technical progress channel, instead of technical efficiency. In addition, panel data empirical estimation showed that productivity effects of financial development are different in three regions, coastal region strongest, western followed by and middle region weakest.
In Chapter 5, we study the effect of financial development promoting TFP through international trade channel. In observing trade scale and trade structure , we introduce financial proxy, and explore the mechanism of financial development, trade scale, trade structure and TFP growth. Our empirical conclusion show that financial development can promote trade scale and trade structure evidently. But different finance index has different effect. For example, medium-long-term credit can promote trade scale and trade structure remarkably, the same effect approved in some financial efficiency indexes. But credit scale do not have this effect. Then, we use estimated trade values as our empirical index. We have improved the productivity effect of financial development on TFP through international trade channel, but we also find that this effect only lies in eastern region, other regions do not have this effect for low financial development level. The empirical conclusion also showed that productivity effect of financial development only occurred through technical progress, instead of technical efficiency. In addition, human capital has important effect on our empirical examination conclusions, that is , our examination certified the existence of "human capital threshold".
In chapter 6, we first reexamination the spillover effects of foreign direct investment(FDI), and then, we review the importance of regional FDI spillovers difference among difference regions. Through systematic hackling existence papers, we introduce an important "absorption capacity " concept and take financial development as a key absorption capacity index. Our empirical study find that FDI spillovers is evident in China with gross data and ambiguous with regional data. That is, the spillover effect of foreign direct investment in China has regional difference, this effect mainly lies in eastern areas, and other areas have no this effect. Why do this effect occurred? The answer lies in different financial development levels. When we introduced financial development indexes into our empirical examination model, we find a good explanation of our conclusion, that is, the different effect of FDI spillovers in different region lies in the difference levels of financial development in different regions. In eastern region, the higher financial development level lead to higher FDI spillovers , and then this will promote total factor productivity growth inevitably. Whereas , middle region and western region have lower financial development level, so the FDI spillover effect in these two regions are not evident.
基于此,本文从理论和实证两个层面考察了开放经济下金融发展影响生产率增长的内在机制,尤其是金融发展通过国际贸易和国际直接投资的开放经济渠道促进生产率增长的途径。第3章首先构建了基于内生增长模型的金融发展影响生产率增长的理论框架,打破了传统经济增长理论中技术外生的假定,探讨金融因素对生产率水平的内生推动作用。其次我们重点考虑了国际贸易和国际直接投资两种开放经济情况,考察金融发展如何发挥其特有的功能,通过进出口和FDI技术外溢来间接促进东道国生产率增长。我们以对外开放作为理论分析的逻辑起点,力图将金融发展、对外开放与生产率增长这三个因素纳入到一个理论框架中,在理论上构建了基于内生增长模型以及开放经济视角下金融发展与生产率增长的理论框架。
随后我们在对金融发展和生产率的各个指标进行统计描述的基础上,分别从总量数据和分省面板数据两个层面进行了实证研究。在对总量数据建立“3×3”VAR模型的基础上,我们发现了金融发展对生产率增长具有强有力推动作用的经验证据,但进一步的深入剖析则发现不同金融变量对生产率的影响也存在差异,即金融发展规模的扩大主要影响了劳动生产率的增长,而金融发展效率的提升主要对全要素生产率产生促进作用。而基于分省Panel Data的回归结果也表明金融发展规模的扩大不能够促进全要素生产率增长,只有金融发展效率的提升才能对全要素生产率产生显著的正向影响,而且这种影响是通过技术进步渠道实现的,而非技术效率的改善。另外,基于三大区域的面板数据实证检验也表明了金融发展的生产率效应在三大区域的差异性:东部最大、西部次之,而中部最差。
第5章我们考虑了金融发展如何通过国际贸易来促进全要素生产率增长。我们在对贸易规模和贸易结构的考察中引入了金融变量的影响,考虑金融因素在促进贸易规模扩大、贸易结构优化,进而全要素生产率增长中的内在机理。实证结果表明,金融发展不仅能够促进贸易规模的扩大,而且还能促使贸易结构优化。但是从具体的金融指标来看,只有中长期贷款余额的增加和以存贷比表示的金融发展效率的提升才能产生贸易规模和贸易结构效应,而贷款总量的增加并不能产生这种效应。基于这一结论,我们用金融发展对贸易影响的回归拟和值来考察全要生产率增长的情况,从而巧妙地将三者整合在一个框架中,并得出了有意义的结论。我们证明了金融发展通过国际贸易对全要素生产率增长的促进作用的存在性,但这种效应只有东部地区才有,中西部地区有由于金融发展水平的滞后而不存在这种效应。另外这种效应的发挥主要也是通过技术进步渠道来实现的,其对技术效率的改善作用不明显,从而印证了第4章的实证结论。我们在实证检验中还发现金融发展通过国际贸易影响全要素生产率增长要受到各个地区人力资本水平的影响,即我们的研究结论支持了“人力资本门槛”效应的存在。
第6章在对FDI溢出效应进行重新检验的基础上,反思了FDI溢出效应的区域差异性和东道国吸收能力的重要性,并引入了金融因素作为吸收能力的核心变量来考察其在FDI技术外溢中的关键性作用。我们的实证结论发现了我国FDI溢出效应的整体显著性和区域差异性并存的事实,即从总体上看,我国吸收的FDI存在着显著的溢出效应,但这种溢出只在东部地区存在,中西部地区没有这种效应。在引入金融因素后,我们发现金融发展能够很好地解释FDI技术外溢的区域差异性,即东部地区金融发展水平较高,因而FDI溢出效应也较为明显;而中西部地区金融发展水平较低,FDI技术溢出影响全要素生产率增长的现象不明显。
Since reform and opening up, China's economic growth has made remarkable achievements. In the process of rapid economy growth, China's financial sector has played a key role and became a decisive factor for supporting other economy sectors. A considerable amount of research has showed that the channel of financial development affecting economic growth mainly through it's capital investment, and such a high investment rate has became a basic driving force in sustaining China's 30 years high-speed economic growth.. However, investment-driven growth is bound to be unsustainable. Some empirical literature has proved that long-term economic growth was mainly driven by productivity, rather than the traditional view of investment-driven. Therefore, in a certain sense, the financial development of the concern should be shifted to it's productivity effect, especially in the opening background. How to realize financial sector's productivity effect has become a brand new topic in the evolution of "finance-growth" relationship.
So, this paper study the internal mechanism of the financial development on productivity growth from the theoretical and empirical view, especially the channel through international trade and FDI. Chapter 3 construct a systematic theoretical framework basing on endogenous growth model. This framework break the exogenous technology assumption and inquiry the endogenous impact of financial development on productivity growth.. In chapter 3, we focus on channels from international trade and FDI, and peruse the effect of financial development on productivity growth through the open economy. Considering the open economy as our logical starting point, we try to lay the three factors, open economy, financial development and productivity growth, into a unit theoretical framework.
Then, basing on statistical description of various financial development and productivity growth indicators, we proceed on empirical estimation from gross data and provincial data respectively. We find significant positive link between financial development and productivity growth from "3×3" VAR empirical model using gross data from 1990-2004. We also get another important conclusion that different finance indicators have different productivity effect, the scale indicators of financial development mainly promote labor productivity whereas the efficiency indicators of financial development mainly affect total factor productivity. The same conclusion are drawn from panel data empirical model. We also find that productivity effect of financial development are mainly through technical progress channel, instead of technical efficiency. In addition, panel data empirical estimation showed that productivity effects of financial development are different in three regions, coastal region strongest, western followed by and middle region weakest.
In Chapter 5, we study the effect of financial development promoting TFP through international trade channel. In observing trade scale and trade structure , we introduce financial proxy, and explore the mechanism of financial development, trade scale, trade structure and TFP growth. Our empirical conclusion show that financial development can promote trade scale and trade structure evidently. But different finance index has different effect. For example, medium-long-term credit can promote trade scale and trade structure remarkably, the same effect approved in some financial efficiency indexes. But credit scale do not have this effect. Then, we use estimated trade values as our empirical index. We have improved the productivity effect of financial development on TFP through international trade channel, but we also find that this effect only lies in eastern region, other regions do not have this effect for low financial development level. The empirical conclusion also showed that productivity effect of financial development only occurred through technical progress, instead of technical efficiency. In addition, human capital has important effect on our empirical examination conclusions, that is , our examination certified the existence of "human capital threshold".
In chapter 6, we first reexamination the spillover effects of foreign direct investment(FDI), and then, we review the importance of regional FDI spillovers difference among difference regions. Through systematic hackling existence papers, we introduce an important "absorption capacity " concept and take financial development as a key absorption capacity index. Our empirical study find that FDI spillovers is evident in China with gross data and ambiguous with regional data. That is, the spillover effect of foreign direct investment in China has regional difference, this effect mainly lies in eastern areas, and other areas have no this effect. Why do this effect occurred? The answer lies in different financial development levels. When we introduced financial development indexes into our empirical examination model, we find a good explanation of our conclusion, that is, the different effect of FDI spillovers in different region lies in the difference levels of financial development in different regions. In eastern region, the higher financial development level lead to higher FDI spillovers , and then this will promote total factor productivity growth inevitably. Whereas , middle region and western region have lower financial development level, so the FDI spillover effect in these two regions are not evident.
引文
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