天津移动通信市场非线性预测及面向3G的发展策略研究
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摘要
本文以天津移动通信市场为研究对象,针对决定移动通信市场规模的两个关键因素(话务量、用户量)进行了预测,同时对即将投入运营的典型的3G业务进行了分析,并对全球3G用户的发展趋势进行了预测。在详细分析宏观发展及行业发展环境的基础上,制定了天津移动通信公司未来的发展策略。
首先对天津通信市场的发展现状进行了分析,并运用混沌时间序列的相关理论,研究了天津移动通信日话务量与周话务量的混沌特性。分别求得日话务量和周话务量时间序列的延迟时间τ、嵌入维数m以及最大Lyapunov指数,最后基于最大Lyapunov指数运用混沌时间序列方法分别针对天津移动通信日话务量与周话务量进行预测。
基于对天津市经济发展及人口增长趋势的分析,分别采用趋势外推、成长曲线及随机梯度回归方法对天津市2007年到2010年移动通信用户总量进行了预测。预测结果表明,“十一五”期间,天津市移动通信用户总量将保持较高增长速度,到2010年,移动通信普及率将超过95%。
在对全球3G业务分析的基础上,运用支持向量理论针对全球3G用户数量进行了分类预测,预测结果显示全球3G用户将保持持续快速增长,但不同3G业务类型的用户所占比例变化较大。其中CDMA20001xEV-DO用户所占比例将近一步扩大至20%,WCDMA用户所占比例将维持在33%左右,而CDMA2000 1x用户所占比例将持续减少至46%左右。
最后对天津移动通信的发展环境进行了探讨,提出了天津移动公司的未来发展策略,并为天津移动通信保持企业持续性发展提出参考和建议。
Focused on the Tianjin mobile communication market, the thesis analyzed and predicted the two key factors of the market such as telephone traffic demand and telephone users. Furthermore, the upcoming 3G operation was discussed and the end users of the 3G in the whole world were forecasted. Based on the analyzing of the macro and industrial environment, the developing strategy of the Tianjin Mobile Communication Corporation (TMCC) was proposed.
With analyzing present status of the Tianjin mobile market and using the chaos theory, the thesis researched the chaotic properties of the day and week telephone traffic demand. We calculate the embedding dimension, the delay time and max Lyapunov index. Using the max Lyapunov index method and local prediction method of chaotic time series, the day and week telephone traffic demand were predicted.
Based on the analysis of the economic development and the trend of the population increase in Tianjin, we used the trend extrapolation method, growth curve method and stochastic gradient regression method to predict the total mobile telephone users from 2007 to 2010 in Tianjin. Results show that the growth rate of the total mobile telephone users will keep high and the growth rate of user will surpass 95%.
Based on the analysis of the global 3G operation, using the support vector machine method, the different global 3G operation end users were predicted. The total amount of the 3G user will increase in future, but the proportion of different user type will change greatly. The proportion of CDMA20001xEV-DO users will be 20%, and the WCDMA and CDMA2000 1x users will be 33% and 46% respectively.
Last we discussed the development environment of the TMCC, and proposed the developing strategy and the suggestion for the company’s sustainability.
首先对天津通信市场的发展现状进行了分析,并运用混沌时间序列的相关理论,研究了天津移动通信日话务量与周话务量的混沌特性。分别求得日话务量和周话务量时间序列的延迟时间τ、嵌入维数m以及最大Lyapunov指数,最后基于最大Lyapunov指数运用混沌时间序列方法分别针对天津移动通信日话务量与周话务量进行预测。
基于对天津市经济发展及人口增长趋势的分析,分别采用趋势外推、成长曲线及随机梯度回归方法对天津市2007年到2010年移动通信用户总量进行了预测。预测结果表明,“十一五”期间,天津市移动通信用户总量将保持较高增长速度,到2010年,移动通信普及率将超过95%。
在对全球3G业务分析的基础上,运用支持向量理论针对全球3G用户数量进行了分类预测,预测结果显示全球3G用户将保持持续快速增长,但不同3G业务类型的用户所占比例变化较大。其中CDMA20001xEV-DO用户所占比例将近一步扩大至20%,WCDMA用户所占比例将维持在33%左右,而CDMA2000 1x用户所占比例将持续减少至46%左右。
最后对天津移动通信的发展环境进行了探讨,提出了天津移动公司的未来发展策略,并为天津移动通信保持企业持续性发展提出参考和建议。
Focused on the Tianjin mobile communication market, the thesis analyzed and predicted the two key factors of the market such as telephone traffic demand and telephone users. Furthermore, the upcoming 3G operation was discussed and the end users of the 3G in the whole world were forecasted. Based on the analyzing of the macro and industrial environment, the developing strategy of the Tianjin Mobile Communication Corporation (TMCC) was proposed.
With analyzing present status of the Tianjin mobile market and using the chaos theory, the thesis researched the chaotic properties of the day and week telephone traffic demand. We calculate the embedding dimension, the delay time and max Lyapunov index. Using the max Lyapunov index method and local prediction method of chaotic time series, the day and week telephone traffic demand were predicted.
Based on the analysis of the economic development and the trend of the population increase in Tianjin, we used the trend extrapolation method, growth curve method and stochastic gradient regression method to predict the total mobile telephone users from 2007 to 2010 in Tianjin. Results show that the growth rate of the total mobile telephone users will keep high and the growth rate of user will surpass 95%.
Based on the analysis of the global 3G operation, using the support vector machine method, the different global 3G operation end users were predicted. The total amount of the 3G user will increase in future, but the proportion of different user type will change greatly. The proportion of CDMA20001xEV-DO users will be 20%, and the WCDMA and CDMA2000 1x users will be 33% and 46% respectively.
Last we discussed the development environment of the TMCC, and proposed the developing strategy and the suggestion for the company’s sustainability.
引文
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