城市电网规划项目关键问题研究
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摘要
本文通过对城市电网规划中关键问题的研究,提出了比较完整和系统的城市电网规划的理论框架和方法体系。论文首先在对电网规划中若干关键问题的研究进行综述的基础上,提出了基于主成分分析法和德尔菲法的城市现状电网的综合评估方法,较好地解决了电网现状评价中的指标和权重的科学性问题。在正确评估电网现状的基础上,从已知的用电需求出发,考虑政治、经济、气候等相关因素,对城市电网未来的用电需求做出负荷预测。在对负荷预测的基础上,对变电站选址定容优化规划方法进行研究。论文在介绍了投资项目经济评价中的财务评价的理论框架及其指标体系的基础上,对投资项目经济评价中最常用的两个指标净现值和内部收益率的经济含义进行了再探讨,并对两个指标的非自洽性的原因给出了新的解释。然后以Y城市电网规划项目为例,对其电网规划项目进行了财务评价分析。通过Y城市电网规划的财务评价结果可以看出,电网经营企业“无项目”时财务状况要好于“有项目”时的财务状况,这说明电网规划投资从财务上说是没有效益的。论文从电网经营企业的运作模式、产权结构、电网经营企业自身三个方面的分析,认为电网经营企业不具备对电网进行投资的内在动力。论文首次从经济评价的角度来证明电力是一种公共产品,电力投资注重的是电力的外部性,尤其是外部性中社会效益的实现,而非仅仅住注重投资本身的效益,这也是电力采取国家垄断经营的原因之一。在此基础上,论文对电网自然垄断的性质进行了分析并提出了电网改革的途径。本文还对城市电网规划与城市规划之间的协调问题进行了探讨,论述了城市电网规划与城市规划的矛盾冲突以及冲突的协调问题。最后,把认知科学引入到电网规划中,重视人在规划中的主导地位和重要作用,希望能更加完善目前的城市电网规划方法体系,使得电网规划方案的决策更加科学合理。
This paper puts forward the complete and systemic frame and method system of urban power network planning through the research of key questions of urban power network planning. On the basis of research summary of key questions of city power network planning, the paper proposes the general evaluation method of power network actuality based on the principal component analysis method and the Delphi method and this solves the scientific question of appraisal target and the weight well. In the foundation of the correct appraisal of power network present situation, the paper makes the load forecast according to the future demand of the city power network and politics, economy, climate and so on. In the foundation of the load forecasting, this paper studies the problem of substation locating and sizing. On the basis of introduction of financial appraisal theory frame and the target system of investment project economic appraisal, this paper gives the economical meaning of the net present value and the internal rate of return and the new explanation about conflict reason of two targets. Then this paper takes the Y city power network planning project as the example and carries on the financial appraisal analysis to its power network planning project. The financial appraisal result about the Y city power network planning reveals the power network enterprise financial condition“without project”is better than that“with project”, and this explains the power network planning investment does not have the benefit. From three aspect analysis of the power network enterprise's operation pattern, the property right structure, the power network management enterprise, the paper thinks the power network enterprise does not have the intrinsic power to carry on the investment. The paper proves the electric power is one public product for the first time from the angle of economic appraisal. The electric power investment pays attention to externalities, in particular to the social efficiency realization, not but to the investment itself benefit, and this also is the reason of electric power state monopoly management. On the basis the paper analyzes the electrical network nature monopoly nature and proposes the electrical network reformed way. This paper discusses the coordinated questions between the urban power network planning and the urban planning. These problems contain contradictory conflict as well as the conflict coordinated question between them. Finally, this paper introduces the cognitive science in the power network planning and attaches importance to human's dominant position and the vital role in planning. This can make the present city power network planning method system more perfect and the power network planning decision-making more scientific and reasonable.
This paper puts forward the complete and systemic frame and method system of urban power network planning through the research of key questions of urban power network planning. On the basis of research summary of key questions of city power network planning, the paper proposes the general evaluation method of power network actuality based on the principal component analysis method and the Delphi method and this solves the scientific question of appraisal target and the weight well. In the foundation of the correct appraisal of power network present situation, the paper makes the load forecast according to the future demand of the city power network and politics, economy, climate and so on. In the foundation of the load forecasting, this paper studies the problem of substation locating and sizing. On the basis of introduction of financial appraisal theory frame and the target system of investment project economic appraisal, this paper gives the economical meaning of the net present value and the internal rate of return and the new explanation about conflict reason of two targets. Then this paper takes the Y city power network planning project as the example and carries on the financial appraisal analysis to its power network planning project. The financial appraisal result about the Y city power network planning reveals the power network enterprise financial condition“without project”is better than that“with project”, and this explains the power network planning investment does not have the benefit. From three aspect analysis of the power network enterprise's operation pattern, the property right structure, the power network management enterprise, the paper thinks the power network enterprise does not have the intrinsic power to carry on the investment. The paper proves the electric power is one public product for the first time from the angle of economic appraisal. The electric power investment pays attention to externalities, in particular to the social efficiency realization, not but to the investment itself benefit, and this also is the reason of electric power state monopoly management. On the basis the paper analyzes the electrical network nature monopoly nature and proposes the electrical network reformed way. This paper discusses the coordinated questions between the urban power network planning and the urban planning. These problems contain contradictory conflict as well as the conflict coordinated question between them. Finally, this paper introduces the cognitive science in the power network planning and attaches importance to human's dominant position and the vital role in planning. This can make the present city power network planning method system more perfect and the power network planning decision-making more scientific and reasonable.
引文
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